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Agenda 03/11/2010 W (Strategic Planning) BCC STRATEGIC PLANNING WORKSHOP MEETING AGENDA MARCH 11, 2010 COLLIER COUNTY BOARD OF COUNTY COMMISSIONERS ~. ~ )1 ,,\ AGENDA March 11,2010 9:00 AM BCC/Strategic Planning Workshop County Commission Boardroom 3" Floor W. Harmon Turner Building Fred W. Coyle, BCC Chairman Commissioner, District 4 Frank Halas, BCC Vice-Chairman Commissioner, District 2 Jim Coletta, BCC Commissioner, District 5; CRAB Chairman Donna Fiala, BCC Commissioner, District 1; CRAB Vice Chairman Tom Henning, BCC Commissioner, District 3 NOTICE: ALL PERSONS WISHING TO SPEAK ON ANY AGENDA ITEM MUST REGISTER PRIOR TO SPEAKING. SPEAKERS MUST REGISTER WITH THE COUNTY MANAGER PRIOR TO THE PRESENTATION OF THE AGENDA ITEM TO BE ADDRESSED. ALL REGISTERED SPEAKERS WILL RECEIVE UP TO THREE (3) MINUTES UNLESS THE TIME IS ADJUSTED BY THE CHAIRMAN. COLLIER COUNTY ORDINANCE NO. 2003-53, AS AMENDED BY ORDINANCE 2004-05 AND 2007- 24, REQUIRES THAT ALL LOBBYISTS SHALL, BEFORE ENGAGING IN ANY LOBBYING ACTIVITIES (INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ADDRESSING THE BOARD OF COUNTY COMMISSIONERS), REGISTER WITH THE CLERK TO THE BOARD AT THE BOARD MINUTES AND RECORDS DEPARTMENT. IF YOU ARE A PERSON WITH A DISABILITY WHO NEEDS ANY ACCOMMODATION IN ORDER TO PARTICIPATE IN THIS PROCEEDING, YOU ARE ENTITLED, AT NO COST TO YOU, TO THE PROVISION OF CERTAIN ASSISTANCE. PLEASE CONTACT THE COLLIER COUNTY FACILITIES MANAGEMENT DEPARTMENT LOCATED AT 3301 EAST TAMIAMI TRAIL, NAPLES, FLORIDA, 34112, (239) 252-8380; ASSISTED LISTENING DEVICES FOR THE HEARING IMPAIRED ARE AVAILABLE IN THE COUNTY COMMISSIONERS' OFFICE. 1. Pledge of Allegiance 2. Discussion regarding the Strategic Plan of Collier County 3. Public Comment 4. Adjourn Collier County Government Communication & Customer Relations Department 3301 East Tamiami Trail Naples, FL 34112 Contact: (239) 252-8848 www.colliereov.net www.twitter.com/CollierPI 0 www.facebook.comlCollierGov March 3, 2010 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE NOTICE OF PUBLIC MEETING STRATEGIC PLANNING WORKSHOP BOARD OF COUNTY COMMISSIONERS COLLIER COUNTY, FLORIDA THURSDAY, MARCH 11,2010 Notice is hereby given that the Collier County Board of County Commissioners will hold a strategic planning workshop on Thursday, March 11 at 9 a,m. in the Board of County Commissioners chambers, located on the third floor of the W. Harmon Turner Building, Collier County Government Center, 3301 E. Tamiami Trail, Naples. In regard to the public meeting: All interested parties are invited to attend, and to register to speak and to submit their objections, if any, in writing, to the board/committee prior to the meeting if applicable. All registered public speakers will be limited to three minutes unless permission for additional time is granted by the chairman. Collier County Ordinance No. 2004-05 requires that all lobbyists shall, before engaging in any lobbying activities (including, but not limited to, addressing the Board of County Commissioners, an advisory board or quasi-judicial board), register with the Clerk to the Board at the Board Minutes and Records Department. If you are a person with a disability who needs any accommodation in order to participate in this proceeding, you are entitled, at no cost to you, to the provision of certain assistance. Please contact the Collier County Facilities Management Department, located at 3301 E. Tamiami Trail, Naples, FL 34112, (239) 252-8380, at least two days prior to the meeting. Assisted listening devices for the hearing impaired are available in the Board of County Commissioners Office. 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Pmvldll OpportU'liti_ toOIlJ\lUfld Su(:t"llIld ICC!,clo..aIllO>le,:IJ(II, ~.nt4I1Oo',:mIe.~'''''tf.O .......'J.2DlIII file://C:ITemporary Internet FileslContent.OutlooklJLA2BJFRIBCC Strategy Map revised.., 3/11/2010 Collier County with 1,8% of Florida's population Florida's 15th most populous county ,..... ,MartiOltland ....- Population Population (Census, Estimates, & ProJections) 1980 Census 1990 Census 2000 Census % change 1990-00 2009 Estimate % change 2000-09 % of change 2000-09 due to net migration 2010 Projection (based on 2008 estimate) % change 2008-10 2015 Projection (based on 2008 estimate) % change 2010-15 % of 2008 population Under 18 years 01 age Over 64 years of age Median age (2008) Persons per square mile (2009) Collier County 85,971 152,099 251,377 65.3% 333,032 325% 85,9% 331,811 -0.3% 363,262 9.5% 20.4% 236% 452 Households and Family Households 164 Households Total households, 2000 Census Total households, 2008 % change 2000-08 Family households, 2000 Census % with own children under 18 ColllerCounty 102,973 136,625 327% 71,264 32.8% Florida 9,746,961 12,938,071 15,982,824 23.5% 18,750,483 17.3% 831% 18,881,443 0.4% 20,055,865 6.2% 22.3% 17.3% 40.1 Florida 6,338,075 7,499,799 183% 4,210,760 423% According to Census dellnitlons, a household includes aU olthe pe ople who occupy a hou,lng unit. rhe occupant; mav be a ,iogl" family, eoe person iiving alone, twe or mere lamilies living tog"thll', or any ether group oi related or unrelated people who share living qua"e". Afamilyinclude'ahouleholderando"eo, mO,e ether people living in thesamehou,eholdwhe are ,el.ted to thehou,eholderbyblrth,marriage,or adoption Existing Single-Family Home Sales Percent Change in Homes Sold 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 Percent Change in Median Sates Price 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 Collier County 19.9% 11.7% 16.0% 3.7% -409% .10.7% 265% NA 11.9% 12.7% 284% 298% 0.0% -1.3% -4.0% NA Florida 9.9% 13.1% 10.7% 2.5% -27.6% -29.2% 4.3% 314% 8.8% 11.8% 17.1% 292% 5.6% 5.5% -19.8% -24.0% Note: Home sale, data are calculated lor Metropolitan Slatistical Area. (MSAs) Data ,hown I,ere reflett the valuefortheMSAinwhlchthecountyislocated 348 Housing Housing Counts Collier County Florida Housing units, 2000 Census 144,536 7,302,947 Occupied 102,973 6,337,929 Owner-occupied 77,825 4,441,799 % owner-occupied 756% 70.1% Renter-occupied 25,148 1,896,130 % renter-occupied 24.4% 29.9% Vacant 41,563 965,018 % vacant 28.8% 13.2% Units Permitted Collier County Florida 2000 8,263 161,076 2001 7,580 169,171 % change 2000-01 -8.3% 5.0% 2002 6,260 186,503 % change 2001-02 -174% 10.2% 2003 6,345 215,488 % change 2002-03 14% 15.5% 2004 6,336 254,026 % change 2003-04 -0.1% 179% 2005 6,033 284,120 % change 2004-05 -48% 11.8% 2006 5,993 219,087 % change 2005-06 -0.7% -22.9% 2007 3,871 122,300 % change 2006-07 -354% -442% 2008 599 59,487 % change 2007-08 -84.5% -51.4% rotal Units Permilled 2000-2008 51,280 1,671,258 State Infrastructure Transportation Collier County Florida State Highway Centerline Miles 206.1 12,093.1 Lane Miles 651.3 42,5418 State Bridges Number 216 6,549 State FacUlties ColHerCounty Florida Buildings/Facilities Number 16 3,953 Square Footage 250,724 56,956,904 State Lands Collier County Florida Conservation Lands Parcels 20,663 37,323 Acreage 219,832.3 3,360,212.8 Non-Conservation Lands Parcels 601 6,062 Acreage 29,120.3 254,398.2 Collier County Employment by Industry Average Annual Wage, 2008 All industries Natural Resource & Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation and Utilities Information Financial Aclivilies Professlona! & Business Services Education & Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other services Government Average Annual Employment, % by Category, 2008 Collier County Florida Natural Resource & Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation and Utilities Information Financial Activilies Professional & Business Services Education & Health Services leisure and Hospitality Other services GOl/ernment 4.5% 112% 2.3% 18,1% 1.4% 5.6% 11.3% 129% 18.0% 4.1% 105% 1.2% 6.]% 4.8% 20.5% 2.0% 6.8% 14.9% 13.2% 12.3% 3.3% 141% Labor Force labor Force as Percent of Population Aged 18 and Older 1990 2000 2009 preliminary Collier County 59.8% 58.9% 55.8% Florida 644% 63.4% 628% Financial Health Poverty Collier County Florida % living below poverty, 2008 10,2% 13.3% % ages 0-17 living below poverty, 2008 17.5% 18.4% Personal Income ($OOOs) Collier County Florida 2000 $10,011,970 $457,539,355 2001 $11,061,849 $478,637,023 % change 2000-01 105% 4.6% 2002 $11,607,197 $495.489,345 % change 2001-02 4.9% 3.5% 2003 $12,288,703 $514,377,645 % change 2002-03 5.9% 3.8% 2004 $14,843.435 $565,680,690 % change 2003-04 20.8% 10.0% 2005 $16,455,380 $614.432,959 % change 2004-05 10.9% 8.6% 2006 $18,663.470 $668.483,640 % change 2005--06 13.4% 8.8% 2007 $19,846,737 $699.176.462 % change 2006-07 6.3% 4.6% Per Capita Personal Income Collier County Florida 2000 $39.412 $28,512 2001 $41,886 $29,291 % change 2000-01 63% 2.7% 2002 $42,203 $29,754 % change 2001-02 0.8% 1.6% 2003 $43,216 $30,369 % change 2002-03 2.4% 2.1% 2004 $50,380 $32,672 % change 2003-04 16.6% 7.6% 2005 $53,867 $34,709 % change 2004-05 6.9% 6.2% 2006 $59,895 $37,099 % change 2005-06 11.2% 6.9% 2007 $63,276 $38.417 % change 2006-07 5.6% 3.6% Personal Bankruptcy FlIlng Rate (per 1 ,000 population) Collier County Florida 2000 2.56 4.45 2007 267 3.48 State Rank 30 NA Note: Florid~ numbers exclude Mi~mi-D~de County Unemployment Rate 1990 2000 2009 preliminary Collier County $40,186 $19,300 $44,515 $44,816 $34,431 $61,863 $65,725 $45,689 $48,824 $26,396 $29,784 $47,838 Collier County 5.6% 3.7% 111% Earnings by Place of Work Earnings ($OOOS) 2000 2001 % change 2000-01 2002 % change 2001-02 2003 % change 2002-03 2004 % change 2003-04 2005 % change 2004-05 2006 % change 2005-06 2007 % change 2006-07 Collier County $4,766,497 $5,170,197 6.0% $5,364,248 3.8% $6,006,228 12.0% $6,646,788 10.7% $7.424,932 11.7% $7,905,014 6.5% $8,029,708 1.6% Quality of Life Educational attainment Persons aged 25 and older % HS graduate or higher % bachelor's degree or higher Crime Crime rate, 2008 (index crimes per 100,000 population) Admissions to prison FY 2007-08 Admissions to prison per 100.000 population FY 2007-08 Collier County 81.8% 27.9% Collier County 2,210.3 458 State and Local Taxation 137.6 2008 Ad Valorem Millage Rates County SdlOOI Other Total Collier County 3.4628 4.9090 2.3094 10.6812 Page 2 Florida $40,579 $23,981 $42,040 $48,652 $36,220 $58,194 $55,748 $46,997 $42,245 $21,200 $28,565 $46.424 Florida 6.3% 3.8% 10.5% Florida $303,505,288 $315,309,617 3.9% $328,703,245 4.2% $346,315,563 5.4% $375,315,589 8.4% $408,543,649 8.9% $436,311,039 68% $447,432,985 2.5% Florida 79.9% 22.3% Florida 4,699.8 41,054 218.3 Pr.p....dby' Flo,ida Legislatur~ Off,ce 01 Economic and O..mog,aphi" R......'oh 1'1 '(oJ. lI>!adi.onStr....t.Swt..S74 Tallahas.....,FL 32~99~51111 (850)487.'402 hUp/iEORslat.../I.Uf1 ~'" Ei.p'. _,_ J January 2010 . . 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II i II iill I i CD n ~ ~ ".' I ";k o\:)~ ~ m I I~ s "-,,, () 0 ~ r ^ 0 r m :::0 () 0 c Z -i -< -0 r ::t> z z z G) () 0 s: s: c Z -i m (j') n o " , . n " ~ " o " ;;; ~ ilQ ~f m~ ~15 h ~.:t r~ . , , . I , I f~~~&>~ (lc!a;:::S::l o!Tzoij'" ZIlI:lI -Z "tI II" (i')Z" r- ... fa~'" > f op I z '" n o I: I: c: z 3 lJl ~~~ N_OlDCD..... < . o cm-3' n:o:o ;l".' 0 c 0 Ii~ 3 +~'< .~o..-!!. m... ;:5\\';:' B~~Iit=- liCll S'-o ~ ~ ~ 3" Southwest Florida Regional Economic Indicators February 2010 o FtOI{II\\ (;lIJCO\<,I L ';I\'1I;'-.:n Lutgert College Of Business Phone 239-590-7319 FIQrlda Gulf Coast University 10501 FGCU 81vd, 50uth Ftlrt M ers, FL 33965 Regional Economic Research Institute Table of Contents Introduction................ .....................................,............. .............................. 3 ~~rtA~~,............,..".,..,"",...,............,'"""",.",......,..""""",,6 Chart 1: Regional Airport Arrivals and Departures ................................................................................... 6 Chart 2: RSW Traffic Trend.............................................,.......,.......,............,...,...,..,........................,.....,.., 7 Chart 3: Sarasota Airport Traffic Trend .....................,.............,................................,..............................., 7 Chart 4: Charlotte County Airport Traffic Trend .........'............................................................................. 8 Tourism Tax Revenues. ...,...............,...,...................................,...,......, ......................................................... 8 Chart 5: Lee County Tourism Tax Revenues ......,...................................................................................... 9 Chart 6: Collier County Tourism Tax Revenues........................................................................................, 9 Chart 7: Charlotte County Tourism Tax Revenues..,............................................................................... 10 Single-Family Build ing Permits.................................................. ...,..........,. ...,..,...,...................................... 10 Chart 8: Lee County...........................,. ..........,.........,.............................,................................................. 11 Chart 9: Collier County,..... ...............,...,..............................,............................,........................,............. 11 Chart 10: Charlotte County ...........................................................................,........................................, 12 Taxable Sales,.."...,. "...... .... .... ... .......... .... .... .... .... ".,.. '" ."" '" ,."., "". ". ".,.. ,....., .... .... ... ...,. ." ",..." ,. ",. ".. ".. ... 12 Chart 11: Taxable Sales by County.........................................................................................................,13 Chart 12: Lee County Taxable Sales - Change from a Year Earlier.......................................................... 13 Chart 13: Collier County Taxable Sales - Change from a Year Earlier ....................................,................14 Chart 14: Charlotte County Taxable Sales - Change from a Year Earlier ................................................14 Workforce - Unemployment................................... .... ............ ...,...............,..............,........,.......,.............. 15 Chart 15: Regional Unemployment..................................... .........................................,.....,...,..............15 Chart 16: Coastal County Unemployment .............................................................................................16 Chart 17: Inland County Unemployment ...............................................................................................16 Sales of Single-Family Existing Homes and Median Sales Price ..........................................,......................17 Chart 18: Lee County...,......,.............. ...,...,........,...,.....'.,.....,...,...,........................................ .... ....,...,...,., 17 Chart 19: Collier County................ ....................... ....................,...,.......,.................................................. 18 Chart 20: Charlotte County ..,...,..,........,................,..................................................................,........,...., 18 Consumer Price Index ..,....................................,..........................,...,.......,............,...,.......,........ ................. 19 Chart 21: CPI Annual Percentage Change ..............................................................................................19 Chart 22: Miami-Fort Lauderdale CPI Component Percentage Change ............................................... 20 Population. ",. '" ,.,. ",. ",.." ,. ",.,., ",. ",. ,.". ,., "".. ",. .", ",..".,. ,.,. .". ."..".. .,.. ..,. ,.,. ,., ..... ... ......... .... .... .... ..,...,.. ,.,.. 20 Chart 23: Coastal Counties Growth 1990 to 2009 ................................................................................. 21 Chart 24: Inland County Growth 1990 to 2009................................,..................................,................... 21 Chart 25: Projections by County ....................................................................................,...........,........,., 22 Contact Information: Dr. Gary Jackson, Director, Regional Economic Research Institute Phone: 239-590-7319 Email: giackson(iilfgcu.edu Mr. Steven Scheff, Business Analyst, Regional Economic Research Institute Phone: 239-590-7315 Email: sscheff(iilfgcu,edu Mr. Jim Breitbach, Technical Support Phone: 239-590-7489 Email: jbreitba@fgcu,edu 2 Introduction The Conference Board released its February consumer confidence index on February 23, 2010, showing that the index fell to 46.0 frorn 56,5 in January. The consurner confidence index is based on a survey of households and the decrease reflects concerns about current economic conditions and job market. The Federal Reserve system has begun pulling back and ending some of various facilities that were set up to assist financial markets including those for commercial paper, primary dealer credit and term securities lending, and term auction in light of the improving functioning of financial markets. In addition, the Federal Reserve System increased the discount rate by 25 basis points to 0,75 percent. The Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee (FOMC) issued a press release on January 27th, noting that: . Economic activity has continued to strengthen and the deterioration in the labor market is abating; . Household spending is expanding at a moderate rate, but remains constrained by a weak labor market, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit; . Business spending on equipment and software appears to be picking up, but employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls; . Progress is being made in bringing inventory stocks into better alignment with sales; . While bank lending continues to contract, financial market conditions have become more supportive of economic growth; . Although the pace of economic recovery is likely to be moderate for a time, the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in the context of price stability; . With substantial resource slack likely to continue to dampen cost pressures and with longer- term inflation expectations stable, the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued for some time; and . The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to Y. percent for an extended period; continue to purchase a total of $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and about $175 billion of agency debt; and will gradually slow the pace of its purchases in order to promote a smooth transition in markets. The next meeting of the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee is planned for March 16, 2010, The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee's latest economic forecasts were released on February 17th and are shown in the following "box and whiskers" charts. The red boxes are the central tendency forecast and the full range of uncertainty is reflected in the whiskers, or vertical lines. The chart below shows a projected recovery starting in 2010, but it will be several years before the economy returns to a more normal long-run trend ("LR"). Real GDP growth projections for 2010, 2011, and 2012 show a recovery but there remains considerable uncertainty as to how strong the recovery will be, as shown by the wide range of forecasts. For 2010, the range is 2,3 to 4,0 percent growth in GDP with a central tendency range (red bar) of 2.8 to 3.5 percent. For 2011, the projected Real GDP growth range is 2,7 to 4,7 percent with a central tendency of 3.4 to 4.5 percent. For 2012, the overall projected range is 3,0 to 5.0 percent with a central tendency range of 3.5 to 4.5 percent growth. The long-run (LR) trend for Real GDP has a range of 2.4 to 3.0 percent growth with a central tendency of 2.5 3 to 2,8 percent. The real GDP growth rates are based on the change from the fourth quarter of one year to the fourth quarter of next year, Growth of Real GDP 6,0 5.0 5.0 3.7 4.0 3.0 2.7 - 2,0 C Gl U 1,0 .. Gl a. 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 LR Source: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, January 26-27,2010. As shown in the chart below, unemployment in 2010 is expected to be slightly lower, but will remain historically high, in a range of 8,6 to 10,0 percent, with a central tendency (red bar) of 9.5 to 9,7 percent. For 2011, the unemployment rate is expected to be lower and in a range of 7.2 to 8.8 percent with a central tendency of 8.2 to 8.5 percent. In 2012, the national unemployment range is forecast to be between 6.1 and 7.6 percent with a central tendency of 6.6 to 7.5 percent. The long-run (LR) unemployment is expected to be in a range of 4.9 to 6.3 percent with a central tendency of 5.0 to 5.2 percent, The projections for unemployment are for the fourth quarter of each year. 4 11.0 U nem ployment Rate 10.0 10.0 10.0 9.0 - 8.0 c .. u 7.0 .. .. l1. 6,0 5.0 4,0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 LR Year Source: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, November 3-4, 2009. Although there are some signs of improvement, our regional economic indicator charts continue to show the impact of the slowdown in the local economy in the form of low retail sales, high unemployment rates, low permitting levels, and iow inflation rates. Unemployment in the region eased to 13,1 percent in December from 13.4 percent in November, As in November, passenger traffic at Regional Southwest Airport (RSW) in December 2009 saw a significant increase over the prior month, albeit a small decline from the previous December. December Tourist Tax revenues for the coastal counties of Charlotte, Collier and Lee were down 1 percent from a year earlier. The Regional Economic Research Institute (RERI) is continuing to develop the regional economic database, and this report, as a way to support its mission and assist the region, Starting with this issue, most charts have been reformatted to enhance their clarity and readability. Some older data have been dropped, and some trend iines added, The Institute continues to welcome suggestions from our readers, and would like to emphasize our appreciation of, and thanks to, our many partners for assistance in obtaining the data, We are grateful to all of you, including the Southwest Florida Regional Planning Council, the Economic Development Organizations of Charlotte, Collier, and Lee Counties, the regional airport authorities, and the county and city permit offices. 5 Airport Activity Airport passenger activity is defined as the sum of arrivals and departures for Regional Southwest Florida and Sarasota airports and is shown in Chart 1. Peak seasonal activity occurs in February, March and April, with significantly lower activity in the summer months. Charts 2 and 3 illustrate the monthly seasonality of airport passenger traffic and the changes from year to year. Regional Southwest Florida (RSW) airport is largest airport in the region, serving national and international destinations. Charts 1 and 2 show reported RSW airport passenger activity of 676,078 in December 2009, which is 13 percent higher than the November 2009 levei and 2 percent below December 2008. Sarasota (SRQ) passenger activity rose to 114,4S1 in December 2009, an increase of 6 percent above the prior month figure and 1 percent lower than a year ago, as shown in Charts 1 and 3, Chariotte County resumed commercial passenger service in early 2009, and recorded passenger activity of 19,341 in December, a gain of 44 percent over November, as shown in Chart 4. Chart 1: Regional Airport Arrivals and Departures Airport P.....nger Arrlv.ls plus Departures . 1200 ." c . . , . " 1000 l- . ~ 600 , 1:: l!. I!! + 600 !II. ,~ ~ 400 200 . ---- RSW (SWFL Int'l) ----SRQ (Sarasota) "-... ...-" ----. . . . . t . . o ~ ~n ~b ~r Apr ~ Jun Jul A~ ~p ~t ~ ~ 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Source: Local Airport Authorities 6 ~ 1000 c . . , o ~ >- e 800 , " . i- c . , Q. . ~ 'E .. Chart 2: RSW Traffic Trend 1200 RSW (SW Florida InlBrnational) Airport Passenger Traffic Trend 600 400 200 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dee Source: Local Airport Authorities on ." c: III 200 ~ o '" .... o 175 on e ~ '5 150 Q. ~ In 125 ~ Q. on ~ 100 'E ... 75 250 Chart 3: Sarasota Airport Traffic Trend SRQ (Sarasota) Airport Pa_nger Traffic Trend 225 ~ 2000 --0-- 2008 -0--- 2009 50 Jan Feb Mar Apr flay Jun Jul Aug Sap Oct t-bv Dee Source: Local Airport Authorities 7 Chart 4: Charlotte County Airport Traffic Trend PGD (Charlotte County Airport) pa_nger Arrivals plus Departures 25 .fl20 ~ ~ ~ ~ , 15 ~ e ~ t [ .3 10 ! 15. J/l ~ ';:: 5 .:( o ~n ~b ~r Apr _ Jun ~I Aug ~p ~t ~ ~ 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 20C9 2009 2009 2009 Source Local Airport Authorities Tourism Tax Revenues Touri5m tax revenue5 for the region are 5hown in Chart5 5, 6, and 7, and are based on month of occupancy, While total regional revenue5 showed a seasonal increase of 46 percent from November to December 2009, overall tourism tax revenues were down 1 percent from December 2008. The changes from the prior year included a decline of 1 percent for Charlotte County and 6 percent for Collier County. Lee County revenues were up 2 percent over December 2008, For calendar year 2009, Charlotte County revenues declined by a total of $43,000 or 3 percent from 2008; Collier County saw a decline of $2,290,000, a decrease of 16 percent; and Lee County revenues were down $1,720,000, or 7 percent, from 2008. 8 Chart 5: Lee County Tourism Tax Revenues Lee County Monthly Tourist Tax Revenue 2007 .2009 6000 5000 ~ --2007 ~ 4000 .-- 2008 ~ ~ --0- 2009 .. 3000 , ~ c ~ .l! 2000 K {! 1000 o ~n ~ ~r Apr ~y ~n Jul Aug ~p ~I ~ ~ Month of Occupancy Source: Local County Tourism, Tax, and Economic Development Reports Chart 6: Collier County Tourism Tax Revenues Collier County Monthly Tourist Tax Revenue 2007 .2009 3000 2500 .(j -11-2007 c ~ 2000 ~ ----- 2008 --0-2009 .. , 1500 ~ c ~ ~ a: 1000 K {! 500 o Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nav Dee Month of Occupancy Source: Local County Tourism, Tax, and Economic Development Reports 9 Chart 7: Charlotte County Tourism Tax Revenues Charlotl& County Monthly Tourist Tax Revenue 2007 - 2009 350 300 ~ 250 --- 2007 ~ -- 2008 ~ & 200 -0- 2009 ... , ! 150 ~ ~ > ~ 0: ~ 100 {!. 50 o Jan F~ Mar ~r M~ Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov ~ Month of Occupancy Source: Local County Tourism, Tax, and Economic Development Reports Single-Family Building Permits Total single-family home permits continued at historically low levels for the region as a result of the economy's recession and the impact of many existing homes selling below replacement cost. Lee County issued 71 single-family home permits in January 2010, up from 55 in December 2009 and from 30 in January 2009, as shown in Chart 8. Single-family permits for Collier County decreased from 84 in December 2009 to 68 in January 2010, as shown in Chart 9; the corresponding figure for January 2009 was 35, Charlotte County issued 36 permits in January 2010, down from 71 in December and from 38 in the prior January (see Chart 10). A 12-month moving average trend line for the current year has been added to each chart, 10 Chart 8: Lee County Single Family Permits Issued - Lee County 2002-09 Monthly Averagea; Moat Recent 13 Montha Data and Trend 1600 1400 1200 "ll'000 , ~ ----- Permits II BOO .~ - - -Trend . "- 600 400 o ~a.:'~..- _ ._.._ 200 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Av Av Av Av Av Av Av Av Jan Feb Mar Apr Ma~ Jun Jul Aug Sap Oct Nov Dee Jan 2009200920092009200920092009200920092009200920092010 Source: Local Building and Zoning Departments. including Fort Myers, Cape Coral, and Unincorporated Lee County, Bonita Springs and Fort Myers Beach permits. Chart 9: Collier County Single Family Permits Issued - Collier County 2002.2009 Monthly Averages; Most Recent 13 Months Data and Trend 350 300 250 "ll ;J 200 .!I! . .. ~ 150 . "- 100 50 ---+--- Permits - - -Trend 0 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ > ~ '" '" '" '" '" '" '" '" '" '" '" '" ~ <( 0 8 ~ 0 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N M g ~ is "- 00 :?! N N N N N N N N N N N N 0 0 0 0 0 0 ~ :, ~ 0 '" & u > ~ 0 0 0 0 0 0 l'l 0 0 ;{ ~ N N N N N N N rn . !1 , , 0 0 rn ~ ~ ::E ~ <( z " ~ Source: Local Building and Zoning Departments, includes unincorporated Collier County permits only 11 Chart 10: Charlotte County Single Family Permits Issued. Charlotte County 2002-2009 Monthly Averages; Most Rscsnt 13 Months Data and Trend 300 250 --- Permits - - - Trend ~ 200 .~ ~ ~ 150 & D E , z 100 50 ......... - -1t'---- 0 ii ii ii ii ii ii ii ii m m m m m 8 m m m m m '" a 0 8 8 a 8 a [5 a [5 8 ~ " N M 8 ~ 8 ~ 8 8 a a a a 0 a 8 8 8 N N N N N N N N N N N N a a c 1l ~ ~ ~ c "5 co 0- U > ~ C N N N N N N N N ~ :!1 0 , ~ ell 0 0 . , "- , Z Cl , Source: Local Building and Zoning Departments, includes unincorporated Charlotte County permits only. Taxable Sales Taxable sales figures are used to track consumer spending, an important component of the regional economy. Chart 11 provides a historical range of average monthly taxable sales from 2002 through December 2009. The taxable sales charts show month of collection by the merchant rather than the reporting month issued by the Florida Department of Revenue. Thus, December is the latest collection month plotted on the following charts. Note that Chart 11 uses different scales for the Coastal counties (Charlotte, Collier, and lee) and the Inland counties (Glades and Hendry) for ease of visibility, December data generally showed the first year-to-year comparative increases in several years. Taxable sales for the five-county region increased by $25 million, or 2 percent, from December 2008 to December 2009. The seasonal increase for the region from the prior month of November 2009 was $279 million or 20 percent. 12 1,200 Chart 11: Taxable Sales by County Monthly Taxable Sales 2002 to Present 2002-2009 Monthly Averages; Most Recent 12 Months' Data 40 1/11,000 c .2 i 800 ___Charlotte -+-Collier ~8 o .0 -0 $ .'.. 0, .~ -.e- Lee . Glades ~ ..J -: 600 :! "6 u _ 400 ~ '\: ! 200 U .---------------- . . .0 Goo 0 0 . e . . 35 900 A4 30 '" c ,2 25 =: ;2 553 20 ~ '" 15 ~ Sl 10 ~ Ci 5 c e e 0 o g g g g ~ g 8 8 N N N N N N N N 9 ~ m m m m m m m m ~ m ~ ~ ~ ! ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ t > ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ' ~ ~ 0 ~ ~ Source Florida Department of Tal( Research Chart 12: Lee County Taxable Sales - Chan e from a Year Earlier Lee County Taxable Sales: Change from Year Earlier 5% 0% .5% .10% ~15% -20% .25% ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 9 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 9 g: m m m m 9 m m m m m 9 0 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 9 ~ ";' 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 c .6 :. ~ il' c " rn i. .l. > c ~ ~ ~ c " m ~ U > ~ -"l . , 'I Jl u 0 . . . , 'I Jl 0 u. " " . . 0 Z . U. " " . . 0 Z 0 Source: Florida Department of Tal( Research 13 Chart 13: Collier County Taxable Sales. Chan e from a Year Earlier Collier County Taxable Sales: Change from Year Earlier 5% ~ - '" " 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 9 m m m m 1'l m rn m rn m m 0 0 '7 '7 '7 0 '7 '7 0 '7 0 ~ 0 '7 '7 '7 '7 1 0 0 '7 0 C " C 0. > " C 0. .c ~ " ~ ~ ~ rn U c ~ ~ ~ " u > ro . '" ro 0 ii IJl 0 0 ro . ro 0 . IJl 0 0 . ~ '" . z . ~ '" . Z Source: Florida Department of Tax Research Chart 14: Charlotte County Taxable Sales. Change from a Year Earlier Charlotte County Taxable Sales: Change from Year Earlier 10% 5% 0% .5% -10% -15% -20% ~25% 14 Workforce - Unemployment January unemployment data for the five counties will not be available before this report is published. The most current rates for the region are shown below in Chart 15. Longer term results are shown in Charts 16 and 17. Florida's unemployment rate was previously reported as 11.6 percent in December 2009, while the national unemployment rate was 9.7 percent, The unemployment rates tracked in this report are not seasonally adjusted. Unemployment rates for all five counties have been running two to four percentage points higher than the corresponding period a year earlier as shown in Charts 16 and 17, Unemployment rates above 5 or 6 percent reflect cyclical unempioyment and a slowdown of the economy from long-run trends, Chart 15: Re ional Unemplo ment SWFL County Unemployment Rates (%) . Most Recent 13 Months 18.0 -"---"-"""-"-"~-"-'~--~~--'-".."'---'-'--'"'---.------ "., 160 140 12.0 10.0 _ ".'- & . 6,0 $ 0' " 60 ----Charlotte --+-Collier 0 Glades --'-Hendry ---Lee 40 20 DocOBJanOOF~OO~r09~r09_00JunOOJuIOOAugOO_090ctOONov09~W Source; AWl 15 Chart 16: Coastal County Unemployment SWFL Coastal County Unemployment Rates ('Yo) 2002-2009 Monthly Averagee; Moot Recent 13 Montho Oota 16.0 14,0 12.0 10,0 8,0 "".-"- Charlotte 6,0 ---+---Collier 4,0 -........- Lee 20 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Doo Joe Feb Mar Apr May Jun JoI A'g Sop 00\ No~ Dee 08 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 Source AWl Chart 17: Inland County Unemployment SWFL Inland County Unemployment Rates ('Yo) 2002-2009 Monthly Averoseo; Moot Recent 13 Montho Data 18.0 16.0 ".., Glades 14.0 -+-Hendry 120 0 I , 10.0 , " 1 . 01 0 , 80 " . 1 0 6,0 ,0 0 0 0 ,0 40 2,0 20022003200420052006 2007 2008 2009 Doo Joe Fob M" Ap' M', Jun Jul09 Aug Sop Dol No< D" 08 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 Source AWl 16 Sales of Single-Family Existing Homes and Median Sales Price Data on January sales of existing single-family homes sold by REALTORS were not available as we went to publication, Information through December 2009 is shown in Charts 18, 19, and 20. As we reported last month, Charlotte, Collier, and Lee Counties showed full-year increases from 2008 to 2009. Lee County sales nearly doubled, increasing from 8,272 in 2008 to 16,260 in 2009. Collier County sales rose to 3,603 from 2,472, a 46 percent increase over 2008. Charlotte County reported an 18 percent increase in existing single-family home sales from 2,530 to 2,988. I!! 1200 S 11000 0:: ... ,g 800 " o en 600 !l E 400 o :I: 1800 Chart 18: Lee County Lee County Existing Single Family Home Sales by Realtors $250 $200 .. " c ill ::l $150,g .... , .. " $100~ .. 'ii <II c $50 ra '2 ::IE $0 Source: Florida Association of Realtors GO Fort Myers - Cape Coral MSA htto://media.living.net/statistics/statisticsfull.html 1600 \~"yA ~ 1400 200 -Lee Homes Sold by Realtors -<'- Lee Mad ian Sale Price ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 8 ~ 00 00 ~ 00 ~ 8 m ~ m m m m 8 m ~ 8 0 0 8 0 8 8 8 ~ 0 ~ ~ 8 8 ~ 8 ~ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N c .0 . ~ ~ c .. ~ Q. U > ~ c 11 :. ' i\" c ." ~ Q. U > ~ . . . ~ <ll 0 . 0 <ll 0 ~ u. " " ~ 'l 0 z c ~ u. " it " ~ ~ 0 z c o 17 Chart 19: Collier County Collier County Existing Single Family Home Sales by Realtors 450 $450 400 ~~ $400 350 $350 VI \~ " c I!! 300 $300 \11 S ~ 0 1i .J:: ~ 250 $250 I- ~ B "0200 $200 'C 0 .. III ~ 1'50 $150 1i III E c i 100 $100 ~ _Collier Homes Sold by Realtors il 50 --<"-Collier Median Sale Price 2 $50 0 $0 ro ro ro ro ro ro ro '" ro ro ro '" m m m m m m m m m m m m 0 0 15 0 0 15 0 0 0 15 0 0 0 0 15 15 0 0 15 15 0 15 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 " 0 0 0 0 0 N N N N N N N N N ~ N N N N N N N N N N N N N C <> . ~ ~ c "3 1 ~ u > ~ c ~ . ~ ~ c "3 go ~ u > ~ . . " . 0 ~ 0 0 . " . 0 ~ 0 0 ~ u. " ~ z ~ u. " ~ '" z 0 Source: Naples Area Board of Realtors" (NABOR) www.nalJlesarea.com Chart 20: Charlotte County Charlotte County Existing Single Family Home Sales by Realtors 350 50 _Chartolte Homes Sold by Realtors ---<'---Charlotte Median Sale Price $160 $160 $140 Ul " c $120 ~ 0 .J:: $100 I- , $80 B 'C .. ~ $80 1i III C $40 ~ il $20 :IE $0 300 ~ I!! 250 S 1i ~ 200 ~ " 150 o III 1'00 8 ::r: \, 0 ro ro ro ro ro ro 8 8 ro ro ro ro m m m m 8 m g; VI VI m g; m 0 0 15 15 15 0 0 0 0 ~ 0 0 15 0 8 ~ 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 0 " 0 0 " 0 0 " 0 N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N C <> ~ ~ ~ c "3 1 :c u > ~ C D ~ ~ i c "3 1 ~ u > ~ . . . -'l ~ 0 0 . . 0 ~ 0 0 ~ u. " '" z 0 ~ u. ~ Z 0 Source: Florida Association of Realtors @ Punta Garda, Florida MSA hUo: I /med i a.1 ivi na , neVs latistics/stajis ticsfull , him I 18 Consumer Price Index The consumer price indices (CPI) for the nation, the region, and the Miami-Fort Lauderdale area are shown in Chart 21. The Miami-Fort Lauderdale area CPI is collected every two months and is the closest reporting location to Southwest Florida. Compared to December 2008, the national and South regional CPi values increased 2.7 and 2.9 percent respectively, while the increase for the Miami-Ft. Lauderdale area was 2.1 percent. Chart 21: CPI Annual Percentage Change Consumer Price Index Monthly Data . Change From Year Earlier 7.0% 6.0% -+-Miami I Ft. Lauderdale ---- US South Region -+- US Natio nal ~5.0% ,ll - :4.0% >- ~3.0% .:: ~2.0% .l! 01.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% Dee-DO Dec-01 Dec-02 Dee-03 Dec-04 Dee-05 Dee-DB Dee-a7 Dee-DB Dec-09 Source: BLS The overall Miami-Fort Lauderdale Consumer Price Index for the 12 months ending December 2009 can be broken down into the components contributing to the price changes, as shown in Chart 22. 19 Chart 22: Miami-Fort Lauderdale CPI Component Percentage Change Miami. Fort Lauderdale CPI ComponenbJ 12 month change ending December 2009 OtherG odSBndS.rvlc..- Recreation . Other goods and services: Tobacco and smoking products, personal care products and services, and miscellaneous personal goods. - I i I I I I I I , i i f-.-'~'--'--"'-'-'----~ , Education ~10% .5% 0% 5% 12 Month Percentage Change 10% 15% Source: BLS The costs of transportation, other goods and services, medical care, and education/communication have shown the largest increases from the prior year. The year-to-year increase in transportation costs was driven by a 52 percent increase in motor fuel costs. Population The length and severity of the current global recession has slowed regional and state population growth. The February 2009 forecasts of the Florida Demographic Estimating Conference ("FDEC") are included in this report, Population growth from 1990 to 2009 is shown in Charts 23 and 24. Collier County grew at an average annual compound growth rate of 4.2 percent from 1990 to 2009. Lee County's population grew at an annual rate of 3.3 percent. Charlotte, Glades, and Hendry Counties had average annual rates of population growth between 2.1 and 2.6 percent per year, Chart 25 and its accompanying table show projected population increases from 2010 to 2030, The overall rate of regional growth averages 2 percent per year for this period, resulting in a 20-year increase of 46 percent. 20 Chart 23: Coastal Counties Growth 1990 to 2009 Historic Population Growth Charlotte, Collier, and Lee Counties 700 600 . . . fIl500 '" C .. .. 5400 .c ... c 0300 '" .. 3 Q. Ef 200 IColllerl 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: Florida EDR: August 2009 . . . 100 Charlotte 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 '996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: Florida EDR: August 2009 o Chart 24: Inland County Growth 1990 to 2009 Historic Population Growth Glades and Hendry Counties 45 40 35 IHendryl . "l! 30 . . , .,g 25 I- c .g 20 .!ll , Q. If 15 IGlades I 10 5 o 21 1,800 1,600 ~ 1,400 ." C .. 1,200 ~ " 0 1,000 f c 800 ~ 600 :; a. 0 400 "- 200 0 II Glades . Hendry . Charlotte . Collier _Lee <:~?.!t~.s,=. !,roi~(;tio~n~ by County 2010 2015 2020 2025 11,633 12,063 12,552 13,030 42,666 45,732 49,241 52,724 167,598 179,177 192,213 204,904 331,811 363,262 400,684 437,351 622,940 701,018 789,598 875,676 2030 13,487 56,102 216,958 471,989 957,111 Source: Florida EDR: August 2009. 22 --I ! ! , I I I , I I I I I I I I COLLIER COUNTY RESIDENTIAL SALES. MEDIAN SALES PRICE 2000 . 2009 ,-- i , --------1 I I 1----- ^'.-..,,'" .... ---.+--- ---. ......'-< ./ --~'''4p"~ ~- '--~--' Jan hb ~ ~ ~ Jun Jut ~g Sep Oct N~ D~ -- 2000 $172,400 $164,950 $175,500 $179,900 $172,450 $189,500 $179,500 $159,500 $162,900 $179,900 $177,200 $169,250 ___ ._.._..n' ____..___ .__....___ ________ ____..__ _____ _____..___ _______.__ ____ _____..__ ______.._ -+-2001 $187,808 $177,450 $179,900 $179,900 $189,900 $197,000 $174,9S0 $176,850 $179,450 $179,900 $169,900 $189,900 ____ "u,_ __'_'_'_' ____'___ __ _____ ___ _______ -+- 2002 $195,000 $187,000 $201,200 $205,500 $219,900 $214,850 $219,900 $223,900 $194,500 $205,250 $214,900 $214,950 -.- ----- --..--- -_.- ---.-- ----- ----- -+-2003 $219,900 $225,000 $239,900 $229,900 $239,900 $239,9S0 $230,004 $234,900 $229,900 $239,900 $239,000 $239,900 ____ ~__ - ...__ 0" __..._.... .__ . '0 _._ .. ,. -+-2004 $263,240 $259,900 $275,000 $293,500 $289,000 $316,000 $289,900 $319,950 $309,000 $309,000 $319,900 $329,000 "....---.--- .~ --- - ---------- .-_... T _'0 ~~~-~~~: :~::;~ ;::::~ :i~; ~~~~~ ~~~::~ :~:::~ :i6;ci6~ ~i~~~ ~:~~ :~~~~ ~~i~~lr~!:~ ~:;;: ::;;~ *~~~~ ~~~~:~ :~~::~ :~~~] ~~~::~l:~i; :~~~:~~~L:~~l~~t:~~~~"h~Et~6~?~ MONTHS $470,000 $460,000 $450,000 $440,000 $430,000 $420,000 $410,000 $400,000 w () 0:: $390,000 ~ z <C $380,000 C w :Ii $370,000 $360,000 $350,000 $340,000 $330,000 $320,000 $310,000 RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY - 2007-09 MEDIAN LISTING PRICE ------- r --T- r I I I I I ---~---- -~-I , --- ---- --------< , I I I +- - -- 1-- I I ---I ~-+-- -1-n ---r-- - I , ---r--- ! $ 75,000 65,000 ---~ I I I I i~ $300,000 -- ------- -- -- - ------ , l~i~~~~i~ii~~~,~~it~. MONTHS --+---- -'.'~ 2005 684 : 710 , -=--'=2006~- ~- =+=2007~~: -+ ~~ ~~~~~ ~_~::J::~__ ::: 1200 1100 1000 900 tI) W ..I 800 c( tI) u. 700 0 0:: W 600 m ::E ::l 500 z 400 300 200 100 0 2000 -+- 2001 --+-2002 -+- 2003 -----~.._- -+- 2004 L COLi-IER COUNTY RESIDENTIAL SALES. NUMBER OF SALES 2000 . 2009 --T Jan ----.--.- ---..-..-- --- May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec n'_ .____.___.._._ -- -~_._------- 364 319 245 241 221 231 222 254 " - 264-1 336 378 284 336 246 235 235 M_'_ 446 402 365 357 317 348 349 342 ~ -- -.-----. --...---. 642 678 654 589 578 576 447 753 915 1019 758 668 581 552 629 711 ~ ~ -----...~ 913 997 716 711 656 445 549 428 478 451 314 323 323 252 264 223 -------------- 409 414 260 280 229 252 225 269 493 434 353 354 346 I 361 364 406 620 612 629 498 J 526 I 5421518 L~ Feb Mar Apr ---1---~--~ 222 339 351 -~------_.._._.- 222 346 265 392 469 I 447 538 ------t---- 220 240 361 490 679 254 509 611 979 1022 966 1058 -----~ -- 529 477 371 380 484 560 MONTHS 20000 19000 18000 17000 16000 15000 14000 13000 rn C) z i= rn :J 0:: w lD :I: ;:) z 12000 11000 10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 4000 3000 2000 1000 _2007 RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY - 2007-09 NUMBER LISTINGS i _I u_j_ -i- -----i------ I - +---- I ---+ , . ,..- --1n ----J , --1-- Ian I'eb Mar r-'---1-"-!---- + +---i- -------,- 5000 ----- ------- ------ ---, --+- 200S 10,276 ---- ___ 2009 10,518 12,136 12,044 12,036 10,600 10,847 I i I L___ MONTHS Aug Sep 10,544 10,519 10,140 10,064 8,256 __L_~~032 i I , --I , ---I i I -I I ----I i ----I i j --1--1 -- ---- ---- ---..j . 108 Oct Nov I Dee 10,734 11,230_ 11,343 10,150 1~,~6 10,7~ 7,850 . 7,995 8,108 - __ __ __--I