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Backup Documents 10/11/2016 Item #11C 11 G P,cc )O/111l(. WHY HARVARD? FIVE REASONS: _ cL BECAUSE IT IS THE LEADING U.S. GRADUATE PROGRAM OF URBAN PLANNING & DESIGN, ALREADY ENGAGED WITH MIAMI BEACH SLR; BECAUSE IT WILL PROVIDE US TOOLS TO MAKE MORE VISIONARY AND PRACTICAL DECISIONS FOR COMPREHENSIVE, RESILIENT GROWTH, ENCOMPASSING NATURE, QUALITY OF LIFE & PROSPEROUS LONG TERM DEVELOPMENT; BECAUSE WE DO THINGS IN UNIQUE, DIFFERENT & EFFECTIVE WAYS, BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT A PICTURE IS WORTH A 1000 WORDS; OUR RESEARCH METHODS WILL INTEGRATE BEST PRACTICE, MAKE SENSE OF COMPLEX SLR INFORMATION AND ADAPTATION STRATEGIES IN SIMPLE GRAPHIC, 3-D MEANS- EDITED AND DASH- BOARD READY TO UNDERSTAND AND ACT ON; ENABLING COLLIER COUNTY, WITH THE SUPPORT OF ITS STAKEHOLDERS, TO MAKE NO REGRET STRATEGIC DECISIONS, FASTER, & MORE RESOURCE EFFICIENT Nader Ardalan Senior Advisor Harvard SLR Project Z+ t l C s&cc 'oh lei, Chairman Fiala; Commissioners, and Residents. I'm Dennis P. Vasey, a county resident; Member of the Floodplain Advisory Committee; Chairman, Collier Soil and Water Conservation District, and Chairman, Water Symposium of Florida, Inc. I've read Ms. Patterson's Sea Level Rise Executive Summary, and recently participated in a Climate Central webinar with staff. The Executive Summary is excellent. Sea level rise was chronicled in the Floodplain Advisory Committee's last report; it has been an ongoing discussion item at both Collier Soil and Water Conservation District, and Water Symposium of Florida, Inc. We support the recommendations presented to you by staff. The Floodplain Advisory Committee, Collier Soil and Water Conservation District, and Water Symposium of Florida, Inc. have been looking at climate change and sea level rise data since 2006. The handout has several visuals, and a LiDAR, that describe what time won't permit me to say. There are four questions that can focus all discussions: 1 1 ; ' U 1. Why are the East Coast and Gulf of Mexico hotspots of sea level rise? `y • Global average sea level has increased 8 inches since 1880. Several locations along the East Coast and Gulf of Mexico have experienced more than 8 inches of local sea level rise in only the past 50 years. • The rate of local sea level rise is affected by global, regional, and local factors. • Along the East Coast and Gulf of Mexico, changes in the path and strength of ocean currents are contributing to faster-than-average sea level rise. • In parts of the East Coast and Gulf regions, land is subsiding, which allows the ocean to penetrate farther inland. Sea levels in the U.S. are risin' fastest alon the East Coast and Gulf of Mexico. • *" Local Sea Level Rise It ' Over the Last 50 Years 12 t. (1963-2012) it.* 10.51n _ r 8 W 2 2 -- _ 4 1 I-01 FG O 'O444e 4:4+,4:44, S4+,4:4RS4.gPSo4,4,e 44.4,490 : S eos,04, cyg4FSr4,44,yo 44 4.44, 4/44,./c r4yT'C 4%0(4 0%.,./.4 , C %SCO.C4414 O c4 '4F( ' 44 oH.rC 4C'TY•4) %4%OC c14,4J4-4O H 4 Global average sea level has increased 8 inches since 1880.The local rate varies depending on both global and local factors, including currents,ocean floor topography,variation in ocean density,and land uplift or susbsidence due to geological processes or human activities. 2. How quickly is land ice melting? • Shrinking land ice ® glaciers, ice caps, and ice sheets — contributed about half of the total global sea level rise between 1972 and 2008, but its contribution has been increasing since the early 1990s as the pace of ice loss has accelerated. • Recent studies suggest that land ice loss added nearly half an inch to global sea level from 2003 to 2007, contributing 75 to 80 percent of the total increase during that period. Global warmin is r mar cause of current sea level rise. TEMPERATURES ARE RISING Heat-trapping gases from E IS MEI human activity have increased global average temperatures by 1.4' h since the 1880s. Shrinking glaciers and ice sheets are adding water to the world's oceans. OCEANS ARE WARMING • Sea water expands as its temperature rises. . • CONTRIBUTIONS TO GLOBAL SEA LEVEL RISE(1472.2008): MELTING LAND ICE`52 `WARMED OCEANS:36 ER:10% y B 3. Why is there such a large range in sea level rise projections? r • The long-term rate of global sea level rise will depend on the amount of future heat-trapping emissions and on how quickly land ice responds to rising temperatures. • Scientists have developed a range of scenarios for future sea level rise based on estimates of growth in heat-trapping emissions and the potential responses of oceans and ice. The estimates used for these two variables result in the wide range of potential sea level rise scenarios. Sea level rise is accelerating, Heat-trapping gases already in the Sea level will rt c Pr.te as t` atmosphere will cause unavoidatsk oceans continue to warm and to mintemperature over the • �', land ice melts more rapidly. coming decades. IONIMMINIV Global Average Sea Level Rise {{ DDS A A High-end range:+16-24 inches Most likely range: +6-16 inches above current sea leve Current See level ,:.^- .. .. ,. < _ .. - . ...•-_. :-...- .. ,. .. +13 in .' 1880 Sea level �._.,...,,.,,4..._.._... _a_,.:..._.__�.._— -+ 1880 Sea level ....______...._.._,._a.................._.,.....- il t 4. How high and how quickly will sea level rise in the future? 1 .1. Co f Our past emissions of heat-trapping gases will largely dictate sea level rise through 2050, but our present and future emissions will have great bearing on sea level rise from 2050 to 2100 and beyond. • Even if global warming emissions were to drop to zero today, sea level will continue to rise in the coming decades as oceans and land ice adjust to those atmospheric changes. • The greatest effect on long-term sea level rise will be the rate and magnitude of the loss of ice sheets, primarily in Greenland and West Antarctica, as they respond to rising temperatures caused by heat-trapping emissions in the atmosphere. The choices we make today will determin?. high sea JevJ , . rises this century how fast it occurs, and how much time we have to protectcommunities. Global AverageE Sea Level Rise � 1 �1 � , I } , ` Cnrlinucd high Rapid mellrnq emissions cd c,l glac,o•s snd haat-1raDlu c_ k-e<I�cc:f. nares High-end range:+48-78 Inches cif Most'likely range: +12-48 inches above current sea level i t � '-' om, . a Y •^` ... " -` =. - - - Red.xed Slower rnc,tir9 t r ef,:of, s to cl rllac fees.1•Y: ...._._._..,._-._.__....,.„._,._._,._,._......__.___...—._.,.,..,._.,. When the risks of sea-level rise—described as slow, medium, and fast—are scientifically determined, they should be incorporated in all the current and future development projects including infrastructure, agriculture, public works, and water projects. Community awareness and education on sea-level rise is vital and should be presented bi-annually. In a 1960's song, Johnny Cash portrays a natural disaster through the eyes of a child and asks: How high's the water, mama? With a millennium of lead time, it wouldn't be such a big deal to rebuild cities further inland and get county residents out of the way of rising water. But we don't have 1,000 years. Sea level rise is inevitable. It will be anything from bad too awful but it is not an emergency! It will take years to unfold and decades to see who's right.... Let's make certain we write the future with science, and data insight, that protects the health and safety of our community because we know how fast the sea level will rise locally. And consider carefully projects that won't be usable or fulfill their intended function in 2100. Thank you. LN Ridge DRQ W c o I m , Cougar DR BridgeI } ( waY $ YMCA RD . �w Livingston Woods t ;- � .' ,.�� - ` ,...�.,'- , a Pine Rid a RD r O .A. 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What follows is an account of the data sources and assumptions for each of the four facts presented in the infographic. Fact 1: Sea levels in the U.S. are rising fastest along the East Coast and Gulf of Mexico. 2014 Revision Fact 1 of the infographic was revised in 2014 to show the most recent 50 years available of local sea level rise instead of the period since 1880, which was used in the original 2013 infographic. The original Fact 1 panel showed local sea level rise over the same time period as the global sea level rise —dating back to 1880, which is also presented in Facts 2 through 4. This was updated after learning that several of the original tide stations had too short a tide record to have confidence in the extrapolation back to 1880. A longer tide record is desirable because the longer the data set the more confidence one can have in its accuracy(see the confidence interval figure below). Since more tide stations around the U.S. have at least 50 years of record compared to the few tide stations with around 100 years of record, we chose to update Fact 1 panel with a 50-year fit provided by NOAA for the latest complete year of tide data available (2012) at the time of posting the revised April 2014 infographic. 30 Y 25 E 20 - S .- c 10 T 0 5 g - � E 0) OC t iiiiiIIiIIiiIiii E 20 7-1 w .25 30 0 20 40 60 80 100 '20 143 160 190 200 Year Range of Data Figure 1: Confidence interval with period of record. Confidence interval improves for sea level rise rates for longer tide station records.Tide stations with more than 50 years of data are preferable for sea level rise trends. Image source: NOAA(available at http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends update.shtml?staid—1612340) Local Sea Level Rise: Over the Last Fifty Years (1963-2012) NOAA NOAA total Trend 1963- NOAA 1963- NOAA NOAA 2012 Trend 2012 total total Rounding 1963- Standard 1963- 1963- to Infographic 2012 Error 2012 2012 nearest Station Name Name (mm/yr) (mm/yr) (mm) (in) 0.5 (in) GALVESTON Galveston,TX 6.413 0.376 320.66 12.62 12.5 SEWELLS POINT Norfolk,VA 5.318 0.319 265.89 10.47 10.5 ATLANTIC CITY Atlantic City, NJ 4.848 0.283 242.38 9.54 9.5 WASHINGTON Washington,DC 3.596 0.382 179.78 7.08 7 THE BATTERY New York, NY 3.452 0.266 172.58 6.79 7 CHARLESTON Charleston,SC 3.099 0.283 154.93 6.10 6 BOSTON Boston, MA 3.004 0.238 150.18 5.91 6 KEY WEST Key West, FL 2.766 0.218 138.30 5.44 5.5 PENSACOLA Pensacola, FL 2.444 0.282 122.21 4.81 5 SAN DIEGO San Diego, CA 2.009 0.351 100.43 3.95 4 SEATTLE Seattle,WA 1.780 0.310 89.00 3.50 3.5 SAN FRANCISCO San Francisco,CA 1.484 0.405 74.18 2.92 3 LOS ANGELES Los Angeles, CA 1.162 0.309 58.11 2.29 2.5 Table 1: NOAA 50-year fit of tide station data.The latest 50-year trend (1963-2012) available at time of revised infographic(April 2014) NOAA Data: co-ops.userservices@noaa.gov and updated annually at http://'tidesandcurrents.noaa. eov_sltrends 50yr.shtml?staid=l6I2340 Local sea level trends are a combination of both the global trend and local factors such as vertical land movement and changes in the path or strength of coastal ocean currents (see Table 2). Sea levels have risen more in Atlantic City, N.J.; Sewells Point, near Norfolk, Va; and Galveston, Texas in the most recently recorded 50-year period (between 1963 and 2012) than they have risen globally since 1880. We extend appreciation to Forbes Tompkins, World Resources Institute, and Leonard Barry, Director of the Florida Center for Environmental Studies, for advice on tide stations. We thank Chris Zervas, NOAA, for his helpful review of the use of NOAA fifty year fit for tide station data. For more information and to obtain data, please contact NOAA via the email co- ops.userservices@noaa.gov. Fact 2: Global Warming is the primary cause of current sea level rise. Between 1880 and 2010, average global surface temperatures rose by 0.8 °C (1.4 °F) (Hansen et al. 2010). This warming has caused an expansion of seawater and a shrinking of land-based ice-glaciers, ice caps, and ice sheets. These two processes have been largely responsible for the observed rise in global sea level since 1 880 (Church et al. 2011). r Global sea level rose by 8 inches (210 mm) between 1880 and 2009 (Church and White 2011). This estimate is based on tide gauge measurements—available between 1880 and 2009—and satellite altimeter data—available from 1993 to 2009. To calculate the relative contributions of ice loss, thermal expansion, and other factors to the total observed global sea level rise from 1972 to 2008, we relied on the accounting of sea level rise components presented by Church et al. 2011 (See Table 2). Component Linear trend Notes and uncertainty* (mm/year) Total observed global 2.10± 0.16 Includes both tide gauge data sea level rise (available for entire time period) and satellite data (available after 1993). Thermal expansion 0.80 f 0.15 Includes entire water column Land ice loss 1.09± 0.26 Groundwater depletion 0.26+ 0.07 Other terrestrial water -0.37± 0.25 Includes dam retention and natural storage factors terrestrial storage Total of known 1.78 ± 0.36 contributions Residual 0.32 ± 0.39 *Error estimates are one standard deviation Table 2: Contributions to sea level rise;Adapted from Church et al.2011 We calculated the contributions of land ice loss and thermal expansion as percentages of the total observed global rise in sea level. Together, these two components account for 90% (or 1.89 mm/yr) of the total observed rise. All of the known contributions, however, add up to less than the total observed rise, meaning that the sea level rise budget is not closed. Therefore the remaining 10% is attributed to a combination of known and unknown factors. Fact 3: Sea level rise is accelerating. Sea level rise projections for 2050 are drawn from NOAA's Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios report (NOAA 2012a). The report does not specifically report data for the year 2050, so we have estimated data for 2050 based upon their Figure 10, which shows projections out to 2100. Our estimates for the year 2050, rounded to the nearest whole number for the infographic, are as follows: Lowest scenario: 10 cm (3.94 in) Intermediate-low scenario: 15 cm (5.90 in) Intermediate-high scenario: 40 cm (15.75 in) Highest scenario: 60 cm (23.62 in) For the"most likely range,'' we show the range between the intermediate-low and intermediate- high scenarios. The lowest-end scenario is considered less likely because it is a simple extension of the historical sea level rise rate without accounting for the observed acceleration since the 1990s (Church and White 2011). The highest scenario, while possible, assumes much more rapid loss of land ice(See Table 3 below). a Our past emissions of greenhouse gases have committed us to continued warming even in the face of reduced or stabilized emissions in the future. The magnitude of this so-called "committed warming" is on the order of 0.5°C by the end of the century if atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases are maintained at current levels and less if emissions are rapidly reduced to zero (Meehl et al. 2005; Wigley 2005; Matthews and Zickfield 2012). As the oceans and land ice respond to continued warming, sea level will continue to rise. The greatest uncertainty in estimating future sea level rise is the rate of ice loss, primarily from Greenland and Antarctica (NOAA 2012a). Fact 4: The choices we make today will determine how high sea level rises this century, how fast it occurs, and how much time we have to protect our communities. Scientists have developed a range of scenarios for future sea level rise based on estimates of growth in heat-trapping emissions and the potential responses of oceans and land ice. The latest scenarios suggest a 90 percent certainty that the increase in global sea level will range from 8 inches to 6.6 feet above 1992 levels by 2100 (NOAA 2012a). The lowest end of this range is a simple extension of historic sea-level rise—and recent data indicate that this rate has nearly doubled in recent years.' Three other scenarios show a more likely range of 1.6 to 6.6 feet of sea level rise by 2100 (See Table 3 below). The rate and magnitude of the loss of ice sheets—primarily in Greenland and West Antarctica—account for much of the difference in the projections of sea-level rise by the end of the century(NOAA 2012a). The lowest-end scenario is considered less likely because it is a simple extension of the historical sea level rise rate without accounting for the observed acceleration since the 1990s (Church and White 2011). The highest scenario, while possible, assumes much more rapid loss of land ice. The "most likely range" is what was considered most likely by the draft report of the National Climate Assessment(NCA 2013). Given the lowest emissions scenarios, thermal expansion of ocean waters, and melting of small mountain glaciers without any additional ice loss from Greenland or Antarctica, sea level is projected to rise by 11 inches by 2100 (NCA 2013; Marzeion et al. 2012; Yin 2012). Recent work also suggests that 4 feet of sea level rise by 2100 is plausible (NCA 2013 and references therein). ' Satellite altimetry recorded a global sea-level rise of 0.13 inches per year from 1993 to 2009 nearly twice the 20`h century average rate measured by tide gauges(Church and White 2011).The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA)recommends using the lowest scenario only where there is a"great tolerance for risk" (NOAA 2012a). O .15 Scenario Global Global Scenario assumptions average average SLR by SLR by Emissions Ice Oceans Notes 2100 2100 Scenario (meters) (feet) Highest 2.0 6.6 A1B Maximum loss of Warm as projected This scenario combines land ice as by IPCC AR4 maximum ice loss and a level modeled by of ocean warming associated Pfeffer et al.2008 with a middle-of-the-road emissions scenario(AIB)to calculate future SLR. Intermediate- 1.2 3.9 Models employ Ice loss increases Thermal This scenario represents the High a range of IPCC throughout the expansion is average of the high end of AR4 SRES 21st century simulated as a semi-empirical models that scenarios comes to response within use observed data to (Vermeer and dominate total climate models.Its extrapolate into the future Rahmstorf 2009 sea level rise. contribution to (i.e.Vermeer and Rahmstorf and Jevrejeva et total sea level rise 2009;Horton et al.2008; al.2010). Ice loss is over the 21st Jevrejeva et al.2010).Models simulated as a century gradually rely on the existing observed response within declines. relationships between global climate models. temperature and the rate of sea level rise,ice loss,and thermal expansion. Intermediate- 0.5 1.6 B1 Minimal ice sheet Warming as per This scenario assumes Low loss IPCC AR4 B1 aggressive decreases in GHG emissions.SLR is primarily driven by thermal expansion Lowest 0.2 0.7 n/a n/a n/a Linear continuation of historical SLR rate since 1900.NOAA gives no emissions information. Table 3: Sea level rise scenarios. Adapted from NOAA 2012a. While past emissions will largely dictate sea level rise through 2050, our present and future emissions will have a great bearing on sea level rise from 2050 to 2100 and beyond (Schaeffer et al. 2012; Zecca and Chiari 2012; Jevrejeva et al. 2010). References: Cazenave, A., and W. Llovel. 2010. Contemporary sea level rise. Annual Review of Marine Science 2:145-173. Church, J.A., and N.J. White. 2011. Sea-level rise from the late 19th to'early 21'century. Surveys in Geophysics doi:10.1007/s10712-011-9119-1. Church, J.A., N.J. White, L.F. Konikow, C.M. Domingues, J.G. Cogley, E. Rignot, J.M. Gregory, M.R. van den Broeke, A.J. Monaghan, and I. Velicogna. 2011. Revisiting the Earth's sea-level and energy budgets from 1961 to 2008. Geophysical Research Letters 38:L18601; doi:10.1029/2011 GL048794. Environmental Protection Agency(EPA). 2012. Climate change indicators in the United States, 2012. Online at http://wwo.cpa.tol'/climatechangetscicncc/indic•ators/dollnload.himl Hansen, J., R. Ruedy, M. Sato, and K. Lo. 2010. Global surface temperature change. Reviews of Geophysics 48:RG4004; doi:10.1029/2010RG000345. Howat, I.M., 1.R. Joughin, and T.A. Scambos. 2007. Rapid changes in ice discharge from Greenland outlet glaciers. Science 315:1559-61; doi:10.1126/science.1138478. ;j Jevrejeva, S., J.C. Moore, and A. Grinsted. 2010. How will sea level respond to changes in natural and anthropogenic forcings by 2100? Geophysical Research Letters 37(L07703); doi:10.1029/2010GL042947. Kaser, G., J.G. Cogley, M.B. Dyurgerov, M.F. Meier, and A. Ohmura. 2006. Mass balance of glaciers and ice caps: Consensus estimates for 1961-2004. Geophysical Research Letters 33(L19501); doi:10.1029/2006GL027511. Marzeion, B., A.H. Jarosch, and M. Hofer. 2012. Past and future sea-level change from the surface mass balance of glaciers. The Cryosphere Discuss 6:3,177-3,241; doi:10.5194/tcd-6- 3177-2012. Matthews, H.D., and K. Zickfield. 2012. Climate response to zeroed emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols. Nature Climate Change 2:338-341. Meehl, G.A., W.M. Washington, W.D. Collins, J.M. Arblaster, A. Hu, L.E. Buja, W.G. Strand, and H. Teng. 2005. How much more global warming and sea level rise? Science 307:1769-1772. Meier, M.F., M.B. Dyurgerov, U.K. Rick, S. O'Neel, W.T. Pfeffer, R.S. Anderson, S.P. Anderson, and A.F. Glazovsky. 2007. Glaciers dominate eustatic sea-level rise in the 21s` century. Science 317:1064-1067; doi:10.1126/science.1143906. National Climate Assessment Draft for Public Comment. 2013. Chapter 2-Our Changing Climate (v. 11 Jan. 2013). Available online at http://ncadac.globalchange.gov/download/NCAJan11-2013-publicreviewdraft-chap2-climate.pdf National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). 2012a. Global sea level rise scenarios for the United States National Climate Assessment. NOAA technical report OAR CPO-1. Silver Spring, MD. Online at http://cpo.noaa.gov%sites,cpo/Rcpows%2012/NOA4 SLR r3.pdt. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). 2012b. Sea levels online. Online at hit p://tidesauciccu-rents.noau.goo/sltrcnds/.sltrc luls.shtml. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Data: 50 year trends available online at littp.//tidcsairdcurrc nts.noau.LJov/.sltrends/50yr.shtnnl?staid=1612340. National Research Council (NRC). 2012. Sea-level rise for the coasts of California, Oregon, and Washington: Past, present, and future. Washington, DC: National Academies Press. Schaeffer, M., W. Hare, S. Rahmstorf, and M. Vermeer. 2012. Long-term sea-level rise implied by 1.5° C and 2° C warming levels. Nature Climate Change doi:10.1038/nclimatel 584. Wigley, T.M.L. 2005. The climate change commitment. Science 307:1766-1769. Witze, A. 2008. Climate change: Losing Greenland. Nature 452:798-802. Online at Itttp://w wtiv.natu e.com/nelysi2008/080416/6 ll/452798a.htni1. Yin, J. 2012. Century to multi-century sea level rise projections from CMIP5 models. Geophysical Research Letters 39(7): doi:10.1029/2012GL052947. P r, Zecca, A., and L. Chiari. 2012. Lower bounds to future sea-level rise. Global and Planetary Change 98-99:1-5. Abstract online at http:'/ui fi w.sciencedircct.coil) cicncc article/piiiS09 181811 2(IU1579. What the Science Tells Us HIGHLIGHTS From the rocky shoreline of Maine to the busy trading port of New Orleans,from Roughly a third of the nation's population historic Golden Gate Park in San Francisco to the golden sands of Miami Beach, lives in coastal counties Several million our coasts are an integral part of American life.Where the sea meets land sit some of those live at elevations that could he of our most densely populated cities,most popular tourist destinations,bountiful fisheries,unique natural landscapes,strategic military bases,financial centers,and flooded by rising seas this century,scientific beaches and boardwalks where memories are created.Yet many of these iconic projections show.These cities and towns- places face a growing risk from sea level rise. home to tourist destinations,fisheries, Global sea level is rising—and at an accelerating rate—largely in response to natural landscapes,military bases,financial global warming.The global average rise has been about eight inches since the centers,and beaches and boardwalks- Industrial Revolution.However,many U.S.cities have seen much higher increases face a growing in risk from sea level rise. in sea level(NOAA 2012a;NOAA 2012b).Portions of the East and Gulf coasts have faced some of the world's fastest rates of sea level rise(NOAA 20126).These trends have contributed to loss of life,billions of dollars in damage to coastal The choices we make today are critical property and infrastructure,massive taxpayer funding for recovery and rebuild- to protecting coastal communities. While ing,and degradation of our prized shores. it will be necessary to adapt to rising seas Scientific projections show that global sea level will continue to rise over the by,for example,making buildings and course of this century,transforming our coasts.Meeting the challenge of rising infrastructure more resilient,reducing seas and coastal storm surges will require immense efforts to build the resilience of our treasured coastal communities.We also need to make ambitious cuts in our our heat-trapping emissions is one of the heat-trapping emissions,to slow the pace and magnitude of change in sea level best ways to limit the magnitude and pace and gain time to plan and prepare for its effects. of sea level rise over the long terns. What Is Causing Sea Level Rise? Global warming is the main contributor to the rise in global sea level since the Industrial Revolution.Human activities such as burning coal and oil and cutting SI‘::',ii. TJL�+tl, r - - 7 k..:;,v,,,,:.'. II4-t f - i1 , '',,.,-. __, .if 77.,,f, : , tit I[ 0 whitita jp:;.w.w v,,,, ,,,,: ' — Sea level rise,combined with worsening storm surge,threatens to harm people,property,and ecosystems in coastal communities wound the country. down tropical forests increase atmospheric concentrations of heat-trapping gases.The result is that the planet has already Global sea level is rising— warmed by 1.4°F since 1880(Hansen et al.2010). and at an accelerating These rising air temperatures are also warming ocean waters.Indeed,the oceans have absorbed 85 percent of the ex- rate—largely in response cess heat trapped by the atmosphere since 1880(Cazenave and t0 global warming Llovel 2010;Levitus et al.2009;Levitus et al.2005;Levitus et al.2001).As ocean water warms,it expands.This thermal expansion was the main driver of global sea level rise for 75 to 100 years after the start of the Industrial Revolution.However, more than half of the increase during that period(Church the share of thermal expansion in global sea level rise has et al.2011). declined in recent decades as the shrinking of land ice has Indeed,the pace of ice loss from both small glaciers accelerated(Cazenave and Llovel 2010;Lombard et al.2005).' and large ice sheets has accelerated(EPA 2012;NRC 2012; Land ice—glaciers,ice caps,and ice sheets—stores Cazenave and Llovel 2010;Witze 2008;Howat,Joughin,and nearly two-thirds of the world's freshwater and is shrinking Scambos 2007;Meier et al.2007;Kaser et al.2006).Recent in response to higher temperatures(Trenberth et al.2007). studies suggest that ice loss added nearly half an inch to Glaciers partially melt each summer and grow again each global sea level from 2003 to 2007,contributing 75 percent to winter.However,as temperatures rise,ice growth in winter is 80 percent of the total increase(Cazenave and Llovel 2010). often less than ice melt in summer.The result is that nearly all Other factors—from local sinking of land to changing the world's surveyed glaciers,ice caps,and the Greenland ice regional ocean currents—also can play a role in sea level rise.2 sheet are losing ice,adding water to the oceans and causing These influences are contributing to"hot spots"that are global sea level to rise(EPA 2012;Cogley 2009;Meier et al. facing higher-than-average local sea level rise,such as the 2007;Kaser et al.2006).Shrinking land ice added about one East and Gulf coasts of the United States(Sallenger,Doran, inch to global sea level from 1993 to 2008—accounting for and Howd 2012;Milne 2008).3 "' • n. p -k"�° . ,`4.'4,. . i ,., ,� *fix "�!, ,. yis. *1 a rJ. r +" a . -'" *a c•<. s s'- „ mo„ .'It4”"7 4-4 . '` *-:Ik. i ` . ' W `` u it 9 a � lib 11 I' '�II 046!a. � l� ;, evi . s , fz,.' t F __der'_.:04.4r _ /urn e than 5 million people along the Eastern Seaboard live in oras at risk of coastal flooding,'and population density in coastal counties is projected to grow at more than three times the national pace over the next 10 years.Coastal communities,including in New Jersey(above),have seen severe damage from storms— most recently from Hurricane Sandy. FIGURE 1. Global Sea Level Rise and Recent Causes Average Global Sea Level Rise since the Industrial Revolution Climate-related Contributions to Global Sea Level Rise 10 8 Satellite altimeter data y 0.8 lermal expansion "G et lting land ice 6 aa) 0.6 A 4 Tide gauge data el)X G+ 0.4 u 0-4 2 u 0.2 0 -2 _ 0 1880 1920 1960 2000 1972-2008 1993-2008 Loss of ice on land and thermal expansion of seawater—both From 1972 to 2008,melting land ice—glaciers,ice caps,and ice primarily caused by global warming—have been the key drivers sheets—accounted for 52 percent of sea level rise,while warmer of an average global sea level rise of about eight inches since 1880. oceans contributed 38 percent.Groundwater withdrawal and other Tide gauges around the world have recorded the long-term rise in factors,both known and unknown,contributed the remaining 10 per- sea level since 1870(green line with shaded error range).Satellite cent.Ice loss has accelerated since the early 1990s,and has accounted observations since 1993(blue line)have confirmed the trend. for 75 percent to 80 percent of sea level rise since 2003. SOURCES NRC 2012,CHURCH ET AL.2011,CAZENAVE AND LLOVEL 2010. SOURCES NRC 2012;CHURCH AND WHITE 2011;CAZENAVE AND LLOVEL 2010. NICHOLLS AND CAZENAVE 2010. Measuring Global Sea Level Rise PROJECTING FUTURE SEA LEVEL RISE Our past heat-trapping emissions have committed us to Global sea level rose roughly eight inches from 1880 to 2009, continued sea level rise,because oceans and land ice are and about 0.8 inch per decade from 1972 to 2008(Figure 1) still adjusting to the changes we have already made to the (Church and White 2011;Church et al.2011).5 Tide gauges, atmosphere.Even if global emissions were to drop to zero by land benchmarks,and other methods can be consulted in 2016,scientists project another 1.2 to 2.6 feet of sea level rise specific coastal areas to determine how much the location by 2100(Schaeffer et al.2012;Zecca and Chiari 2012;Meehl differs from the global average rate of sea level rise.Local sea et al.2007). level is influenced by many factors including meteorological However,while past emissions will largely dictate sea events,ocean currents,geologic factors,groundwater flow, level rise through 2050,our present and future emissions will river dams,drilling,dredging,and construction. have great bearing on sea level rise from 2050 to 2100 and The rise in sea level is accelerating both globally and beyond(Schaeffer et al.2012;Zecca and Chiari 2012;Jevre- regionally in many places.From 1993 to 2008,the global jeva,Moore,and Grinsted 2010).Land ice,in particular,can rate has risen to 0.11 to 0.13 inch per year—a 65 percent to respond very rapidly to changes in climate(Joughin 2006). 90 percent increase above the twentieth-century average Scientists have developed a range of scenarios for future sea (Church and White 2011;Ablain et al.2009;Leuliette,Nerem, level rise based on estimates of growth in heat-trapping emis- and Mitchum 2004).Scientists attribute this acceleration sions and the potential responses of oceans and ice.The latest mainly to ocean warming,a quickening pace of land ice loss, scenarios suggest a 90 percent certainty that the increase in and a net transfer of groundwater from the land into the sea global sea level will range from 8 inches to 6.6 feet above 1992 (Konikow 2011;Domingues et al.2008;Witze 2008;Howat, levels by 2100(NOAA 2012a). Joughin,and Scambos 2007).6 The stretch of coastline from The lowest end of this range is a simple extension of his- Nova Scotia to the Gulf of Mexico faced some of the world's toric sea level rise—and recent data indicate that this rate has fastest rates of sea level rise in the twentieth century—from nearly doubled in recent years.8 Three other scenarios show 0.10 inch per year in Boston to 0.38 inch per year in Louisiana a more likely range of 1.6 to 6.6 feet of sea level rise by 2100.9 (NOAA 2012b).7 The rate and magnitude of the loss of ice sheets—primarily in Greenland and West Antarctica—account for much of the Roughly a third of the difference in the projections of sea level rise by the end of the century(NOAA 20120.10 nation's population lives in coastal counties and Our Coasts at Risk is especially vulnerable Roughly a third of the nation's population—more than to rising seas and storm 100 million people—lives in coastal counties."These counties account for 42 percent of the U.S.gross domestic product.12 surges in low-lying areas. Coastal states with low-lying land are especially vulnerable to rising seas and coastal storm surges.Louisiana,Florida, North Carolina,California,and South Carolina top the list HOW SEA LEVEL RISE AFFECTS OUR COASTS of exposed states,based on the amount of dry land less than 3.3 feet above high tide levels(Strauss et al.2012). Ocean waves,currents,and tides constantly reshape shore- That 3.3 feet of global sea level rise is likely to occur by lines.Coastal storms such as Hurricane Sandy provide stark the end of the century under a scenario with continued high evidence of how dramatic and rapid these changes can be.Sea global warming emissions and active loss of land ice("in- level rise is changing the dynamics at play along our coasts— termediate-high projection"in Figure 2)—and could occur and with them our coastal communities,economies,and even earlier under a scenario with a more accelerated rate of ecosystems.These dynamics include: shrinking of land ice("highest projection"in Figure 2).Local Amplified storm surge.Coastal storms often cause storm factors make it likely that parts of the East and Gulf coasts surge,where high winds push water inland(Figure 3,p.5). will see an even faster pace of local sea level rise than the With rising seas,storm surge occurs on top of an elevated global average,putting large populations at risk(Boon 2012). water level.That means a storm today could create more FIGURE 2. Coastal States at Risk from Global Sea Level Rise eir Population Living Less f Than 3.3 feet above Mean Global Average OR High Water(thousands) Ar � Sea Level Rise(inches) NH 0 1-9 200-499 P,MA 84 Highest Sea Level n 10-99 ®500-1,000 �CTR� 72 Rise Projection NJ 100-199 ® >1,0001DE 60 MD 48 Intermediate High It 3.3 feet Projection 3 6 'Ili LA 416' 24 Intermediate-Low 12 Projection F. 2000 2050 2100 People in states with low-lying coastlines have been subject to severe flooding and damage from coastal storms in recent years.Although all coastal states are vulnerable,Florida,Louisiana,New York,and California have the most residents living on land less than 3.3 feet above high tide.Depending on our future emissions—and the resulting ocean warming and land ice loss—global average sea level could rise to the 3.3 foot mark within this century. SOURCES NOAA 2012A STRAUSS El AL.2012. 1LL2 L FIGURE 3. Storm Surge and High Tides Magnify the Risks of Local Sea Level Rise Storm surge' 2010 2010-higtrtidg-- > floodplain 1880 floodplain Storm surge i 2050_p r tide- -_ __ 2056 > J 1880 floodplain_, loodplain 2010 floodplain floodplain I Storm surge > 2100 projected high tide 1 2100 u — > floodplain 2050 floodplain 2010 floodplain Sea level sets a baseline for storm surge—the potentially destructive rise in sea height that occurs duringa coastal storm.As local sea level rises,so does that baseline,allowing coastal storm surges to penetrate farther inland.With higher global sea levels in 2050 and 2100,areas much farther inland would be at risk of being flooded.The extent of local flooding also depends on factors like tides,natural and artificial barriers,and the contours of coastal land. Note.Local factors such as tides and coastal profile will influence extent of floodplain. extensive flooding than an identical storm in 1900,with (Cooper et al.2008).Some coastal wetlands and populated sometimes catastrophic damage to our homes and critical areas already flood regularly during particularly high tides infrastructure—as recent events have shown.In the future, (Brinkmann 2012).A rise of two feet above today's sea level with even higher sea levels,storm surges could reach even would put more than$1 trillion of property and structures in further inland. the United States at risk of inundation,with roughly half of that value concentrated in Florida(Moser et al.2013).With More shoreline erosion and degradation.Sea level rise these changes,saltwater could also reach further into coastal increases the potential for erosion by allowing waves to groundwater,increasing the salinity of freshwater used for penetrate further inland,even during calm weather(Zhang drinking and agriculture.' et al.2004).Indeed,the rate of land loss from erosion can be 100 times greater—or more—than the rise in sea level itself (Cooper et al.2008;Zhang et al.2004).13 In many parts of the Responding to Sea Level Rise:Choices, United States,erosion and development have already lowered Opportunities,and Risks natural coastal defenses.These changes have left us more vulnerable to storms,and forced investments in expensive With sea level rise well under way,coastal communities from measures such as repeated beach replenishment and construc- Alaska to the Florida Keys are grappling with difficult choices tion of artificial barriers(Moser,Williams,and Boesch 2012). on how to respond to this growing threat.More and more communities will need to weigh the costs and risks of accom- Permanent inundation.As sea level rises,the ocean is poised modating the rising seas,retreating from them,or trying to to gradually claim low-lying coastal lands;small increases in defend coastal properties and infrastructure with a variety of sea level can produce significant inundation in these areas protective measures. emerge.We will also develop a deeper understanding of the ]Waking deep reductions in risks and tradeoffs we face in confronting climate change.In global warming emissions weighing the best options for each unique coastal commu- nity,we will also need to share experiences and coordinate is one of the best ways to policies and actions across local,state,regional,and national jurisdictions. limit the magnitude and However,even as we work to adapt to unfolding climate pace of sea level rise, and change,deep reductions in our global warming emissions • • remain one of the best ways to limit the magnitude and pace the costs of adapting to it. of sea level rise and cut the costs of these adaptations. Traditional defensive approaches-such as building ENDNOTES 1. For much of the twentieth century,thermal expansion accounted for the seawalls and levees,or replenishing sand along eroded majority of global sea level rise.However,from 1993 to 2007,that share beaches-can help protect against flooding and damage but dropped to about 30 percent. 2. Local sea level is a combination of global sea level and other factors.These may not provide adequate or sustainable protection over the factors include sinking or rising of land and changing regional ocean currents. long term(Moser,Williams,and Boesch 2012).Maintaining 3. A range offactors beyond thermal expansion and the shrinking of land ice can contribute to sea level rise,though their significance varies by location. or restoring natural buffers,such as barrier islands,tidal These factors include: wetlands,and mangroves,can also help defend coastlines, • Groundwater depletion,which reduces the amount of water stored below while providing additional ecosystem services(Jones,Hole, the land surface and results in a net transfer of water into the oceans (Konikow 2011). and Zavaleta 2012;Colls,Ash,and Ikkala 2009).Elevating and • Decreasing ocean salinity,which causes seawater to expand(Ishii et al. flood-proofing structures,using land for temporary purposes 2006;Antonov,Levitus,and Boyer 2002). • Geological uplift or subsidence of coastal areas,which can affect local when it is not flooded,and constructing channels are exam- rates of sea level change dramatically(Anderson,Milliken,and Wallace pies of measures that can help accommodate both temporary 2010). • Changes in the path or strength of ocean currents(Ezer et al.2013; flooding and gradual inundation of low-lying areas(Kimmel- Sallenger,Doran,and Howd 2012). man 2013).Some of the most vulnerable coastal communities • Volcanic eruptions,which tend to cool the oceans and slow thermal expansion(Church and White 2006;Church,White,and Arblaster 2005). may increasingly need to consider the stark option of some 4. These areas have a 1 percent annual chance of flooding(that is,a 100-year form of retreat from the rising seas. flood)(Crowell et al.2010). 5. Since 1900,global sea level has risen by an average of 0.07 inch per year Over time our choices may change as sea level rise fore- (Church and White 2011).Most U.S.coastlines have seen rising sea levels closes certain options,or new solutions for building resilience since the 1950s(NOAA 2012a). 6. As part of the water cycle,rainwater that percolates into underground aquifers slowly flows into rivers or the ocean over the course of thousands or, in some cases,millions of years(Bentley et al.1986;Castro and Goblet 2003). i De r, .` When we pump groundwater out of aquifers for human uses,some of that .. 1 ancient water quickly ends up in rivers and reaches the ocean much more u� rapidly than it would naturally.The cumulative effect of this enhanced flowNI116- is a rise in global sea level(Konikow 2011;Domingues et al.2008;Witze 2008;Howat,Joughin,and Scambos 2007). "r• 1 AgfS 1 7 Sea level rise along much of the eastern North American coast has exceeded -'4 - ` t . the global average since 1955.Rates of change are highest along the �� Gulf Coast. 1 tr unu a•r . $• 8. Satellite altimetry recorded a global sea level rise of 0.13 inch per year from a` _ 1993 to 2009-nearly twice the twentieth-century average rate measured by tide gauges(Church and White 2011).The National Oceanic and Atmospher- ic Administration(NOAH)recommends using the lowest scenario only where = e there is a`great tolerance for risk"(NOAA 2012a). c' •V • 9. The highest end of the range assumes a more accelerated rate of ice melt.An '=S - intermediate-high scenario(four feet by 2100)assumes continued high y global warming emissions and active loss of land ice.An intermediate-low _ : scenario assumes aggressive cuts in emissions and limited loss of ice sheets. - �:17 -- j Studies that apply information on the relationshipbetweenglobal tempera- 1 ,. ---..--2-� sA' � PP y f P 37 ." Y ture and sea level to a future with higher emissions project a rise in the range of 3.9 feet by 2100-the intermediate-high scenario(Jevrejeva,Moore,and - Grinsted 2010;Vermeer and Rahmstorf2009;Horton et al.2008).These - •.+"'-.-...g: "9F '.6‘. ---_""i"..-. - models were run using a range of scenarios from the Intergovernmental s Florida is already experiencing local sea level rise and worsening storm surge. Panel on Climate Change.The figure of3.9 feet is based on theAlB scenario. Homes,businesses,and vital infrastructure along many parts of its Atlantic 10. NOAA has recommended incorporating local and regional factors into coast,including Fort Lauderdale(above),regularly face flooding during high projections of global sea level rise to assess risk and make coastal planning tides.Local sea level rise is damaging unique ecosystems and will also increase decisions.The agency recommends using a lower-risk scenario to evaluate the risk ofsalt water enter inggroundwater aquifers. short-term,low-cost projects,such as whether to pursue seasonal construe- iic;• tion,while using a higher-risk scenario to evaluate new long-term infrastruc- Cogley,J.G.2009.Geodetic and direct mass-balance measurements: tore projects such as power plants(NOAA 2012a). Comparison and joint analysis.Annals of Glaciology 50:96-100. 11. Coastal shoreline counties are defined in NOAA 2O12c.We exclude counties Colls,A.,N.Ash,and N.Ikkala.2009.Ecosystem-based adaptation: bordering the Great Lakes from our population analysis(U.S.Bureau of the Census 2010). A natural response to climate change.Gland,Switzerland: 12. Data are available from NOAA's State of the Coast website:http:// International Union for Conservation of Nature. stateofthecoast.noaa.gov/coastaLeconomy/welcome.html.Economic data Cooper,M.J.P.,M.D.Beevers,and M.Oppenheimer.2008.The include activity along the Great Lakes shorelines of Pennsylvania and New potential impacts of sea level rise on the coastal region of New York but not along other Great Lakes shorelines. Jersey,USA.Climatic Change 90:475-492. 13. In parts of New Jersey,for example,the shoreline has retreated by nearly 120 feet for each foot of sea level rise over the past century,because of the Crowell,M.,K.Coulton,C.Johnson,J.Westcott,D.Bellomo,S. combined effects of erosion and sea level rise. Edelman,and E.Hirsch.2010.An estimate of the U.S.population 14. 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CFC-12 CCL2F2 Liquid coolants, Foams 100 10,900 HCFC-22 CCI2F2 Refrigerants 12 1,810 Sulfur SF6 Dielectric fluid 3,200 22,800 Hexaflouride Pre-1750 Tropospheric Current Tropospheric Concentration' Concentration" (parts per billion) (parts per billion) Carbon Dioxide280,0005 388,5006 Methane 700' ---___ --- 1,870/1,7488--_- _ Oxides 2709 323/3228 Tropospheric Ozone 25 34 CFC-12 0 .534/.5320 HCFC-22 0 .218/.19470 Sulfur Hexaflouride 0 I .00712/.006738'10 Source of graphical information and notes: Biasing,T.J.ad K. Smith 2011. "Recent Greenhouse Gas Concentrations." In Trends:A Compendium of Data on Global Change. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Cetner, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, US Department of Energy, Oak Ridge,TN, USA. http://cdiac.ornl.gov/pns/current_ghg.html Footnotes: 1. The atmospheric lifetime is used to characterize the decay of an instantaneous pulse input to the atmosphere, and can be likened to the time it takes that pulse input to decay to 0.368(lie)of its original value.The analogy would be strictly correct if every gas decayed according to a simple exponential curve,which is seldom the case. For example, CH4 is removed from the atmosphere by a single process,oxidation by the hydroxyl radical(OH), but the effect of an increase in atmospheric concentration of CH4 is to reduce the OH concentration,which, in turn, reduces destruction of the additional methane,effectively lengthening its atmospheric lifetime.An opposite kind of feedback may shorten the atmospheric lifetime of N2O(IPCC 2007, Section 2.10.3). 2. The Global Warming Potential(GWP)provides a simple measure of the radiative effects of emissions of various greenhouse gases, integrated over a specified time horizon, relative to an equal mass of CO2 emissions. 3. Pre-1750 concentrations of CH4,N2O and current concentrations of 03,are taken from Table 4.1 (a)of the IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change),2001. Following the convention of IPCC(2001), inferred global-scale trace-gas concentrations from prior to 1750 are assumed to be practically uninfluenced by human activities such as increasingly specialized agriculture, land clearing,and combustion of fossil fuels. Preindustrial concentrations of industrially manufactured compounds are given as zero.The short atmospheric lifetime of ozone(hours-days)together with the spatial variability of its sources precludes a globally or vertically homogeneous distribution,so that a fractional unit such as parts per billion would not apply over a range of altitudes or geographical locations.Therefore a different unit is used to integrate the varying concentrations of ozone in the vertical dimension over a unit area,and the results can then be averaged globally.This unit is called a Dobson Unit(D.U.),after G. M.B. Dobson,one of the first investigators of atmospheric ozone.A Dobson unit is the amount of ozone in a column which, unmixed with the rest of the atmosphere,would be 10 micrometers thick at standard temperature and pressure. 4. Because atmospheric concentrations of most gases tend to vary systematically over the course of a year,figures given represent averages over a 12-month period for all gases except ozone(03), for which a current global value has been estimated(IPCC, 2001,Table 4.1a). 5. The value given by IPCC 2001, page 185, is 280± 10 ppm.This is supported by measurements of CO2 in old, confined,and reasonably well-dated air. Such air is found in bubbles trapped in annual layers of ice in Antarctica,in sealed brass buttons on old uniforms, airtight bottles of wine of known vintage, etc.Additional support comes from well-dated carbon-isotope signatures,for example,in annual tree rings. Estimates of"pre-industrial"CO2 can also be obtained by first calculating the ratio of the recent J atmospheric CO2 increases to recent fossil-fuel use,and using past records of fossil-fuel use to extrapolate past atmoShe C concentrations on an annual basis. Estimates of"pre-industrial"CO2 concentrations obtained in this way are higher than those obtained by more direct measurements;this is believed to be because the effects of widespread land clearing are not accounted for. Ice-core data provide records of earlier concentrations. For concentrations back to about 1775,see A. Neftel et al. 6. Recent CO2 concentration(388.5 ppm)is the 2010 average taken from globally averaged marine surface data given by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory,web site: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/index.html#global. 7. Pre-industrial concentrations of CH4 are evident in the"1000-year"ice-core records in CDIAC's Trends Onlinehttp://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/atm_meth/lawdome_meth-graphics.html. However,those values need to be multiplied by a scaling factor of 1.0119 to make them compatible with the AGAGE measurements of current methane concentrations,which have already been adjusted to the Tohoku University scale.Ten thousand-year records of CH4,CO2 and N2O,from ice-core data, are also presented graphically in IPCC 2007,(Figure SPM.1). 8. The first value in a cell represents Mace Head, Ireland, a mid-latitude Northern-Hemisphere site,and the second value represents Cape Grim,Tasmania,a mid-latitude Southern-Hemisphere site."Current"values given for these gases are annual arithmetic averages based on monthly background concentrations for October 2009 through September 2010.The SF6 values are from the AGAGE gas chromatography-mass spectrometer(gc-ms)Medusa measuring system. 9. Source: IPCC(2007).The pre-1750 value for N2O is consistent with ice-core records from 10,000 B.C.E.through 1750 C.E. shown graphically in figure SPM.1 on page 3. 10. For SF6 data from January 2004 onward see http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/ale_gage_Agage/AGAGE/gc-ms-medusa/monthly/. For data from 1995 through 2004, see the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA), Halogenated and other Atmospheric Trace Species(HATS)site at: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/hats/airborne/index.html. / Book 142 Page c Agenda Item 12 Meeting of 1015116 RESOLUTION 2016-13866 A RESOLUTION EXPRESSING SUPPORT FOR THE HARVARD.GUATE SCHOOL OF DESIGN PROJECT ("THE HARVARD PROJECT") TO STUDY THE.IMPACTS OF SQA LarEL RISE FOR COASTAL COMMUNITIES IN SOUTH FLORIDA, iq. -MU lliCOUNTY.SQUTH FLORIDA INITIATIVE; DIRECTING THE CITY CLERK TO TRANSMIT A, CO'Y QF, THIS RESOLUTION TO THE COLLIER COUNTY BOARD OF COUNtY COMMISSIONER5;=AND PROVIDING AN EFFECTIVE DATE. WHEREAS, on May 21, 2016, Nader Ardalan, a Senior Adviser with The. award Graduate School of Design, submitted a proposal for The Harvard Project to Collier County; and WHEREAS, on September 19, 2016, Nader Ardalan presented The Harvard Project to the City of Naples City Council; and WHEREAS, The Harvard Project consists of a 2% year study with a proposed Collier County sponsored research budget of$350,000 that would be matched by a $150,000 of in-kind contributions by Harvard; and WHEREAS, it is the intent of the Naples City Council to help citizens become more aware of any consequences, both social and environmental, that may result from the impact of near-future sea-level rise and storm surge; and to assist the community and its policy-makers to develop appropriate planning strategies; and WHEREAS, the proposed study can be of significant value to Collier County, its municipalities, its natural resource managers and not-for-profit environmental organizations; NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED BY THE COUNCIL OF THE CITY OF NAPLES, FLORIDA: Section 1. That the Naples City Council supports The Harvard Graduate School of Design Project, 'The Harvard Project", to study the impacts of rising sea levels on the economy, infrastructure, land use, ecology, and quality of life for coastal communities in South Florida, including the City of Naples and Collier County. Section 2. That the study could aid the Naples City Council and the Collier County Board of County Commissioners to formulate strategies appropriate for the impacts of sea- level rise and storm-surge. Section 3. That the City Clerk is hereby directed to transmit a copy of this Resolution to the Collier County Board of County Commissioners. Section 4. This resolution shall take effect immediately upon adoption. i Book I42 Page wal: 11 (--- Resolution 2016-13866 Page 2 PASSED IN OPEN AND REGULAR SESSION OF THE CITY COUNCIL OF THE CITY OF ('- ) I NAPLES, FLORIDA, THIS 5Th DAY OF OCTOBER, 2016. 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