Backup Documents 09/29/2008 W
Board of County
Commissioners
Workshop
Meeting
BACK-UP
DOCUMENTS
September 29, 2008
*.~...
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AGENDA
September 29, 2008
9:00 a.m.
BCCI East of951 Infrastructure and Services Horizon Study Workshop
3rd Floor Boardroom
W. Harmon Turner Building
Tom Henning, Chairman, District 3
Donna Fiala, Vice-Chairman, District 1
Frank Halas, Chairman, District 2
Fred W. Coyle, Commissioner, District 4
Jim Coletta, Vice-Chairman, District 5
NOTICE: ALL PERSONS WISIDNG TO SPEAK ON ANY AGENDA ITEM MUST
REGISTER PRIOR TO SPEAKING. SPEAKERS MUST REGISTER WITH THE
COUNTY MANAGER PRIOR TO THE PRESENTATION OF THE AGENDA ITEM TO
BE ADDRESSED. ALL REGISTERED PUBLIC SPEAKERS WILL RECEIVE UP TO
THREE (3) MINUTES UNLESS THE TIME IS ADJUSTED BY THE CHAIRMAN.
COLLIER COUNTY ORDINANCE NO. 2004-05, AS AMENDED, REQUIRES THAT
ALL LOBBYISTS SHALL, BEFORE ENGAGING IN ANY LOBBYING ACTIVITIES
(INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ADDRESSING THE BOARD OF COUNTY
COMMISSIONERS), REGISTER WITH THE CLERK TO THE BOARD AT THE
BOARD MINUTES AND RECORDS DEPARTMENT.
IF YOU ARE A PERSON WITH A DISABILITY WHO NEEDS ANY
ACCOMMODATION IN ORDER TO PARTICIPATE IN THIS PROCEEDING, YOU
ARE ENTITLED, AT NO COST TO YOU, TO THE PROVISION OF CERTAIN
ASSISTANCE. PLEASE CONTACT THE COLLIER COUNTY FACILITIES
MANAGEMENT DEPARTMENT LOCATED AT 3301 EAST TAMIAMI TRAIL,
NAPLES, FLORIDA, 34112, (239) 774-8380; ASSISTED LISTENING DEVICES FOR
THE HEARING IMPAIRED ARE AVAILABLE IN THE COUNTY COMMISSIONERS'
OFFICE.
1. Pledge of Allegiance
2. Introduction and Overview - Mike Bosi
3. Presentation from Horizon Study Master Committee - Mr. BiU McDaniel,
Chairman, East 951 Horizon Committee
4. Commentary on Horizon Study Public OpinionlData Collection - Mr. Chuck
Mohlke, Fraser & Mohlke Associates, Inc.
5. Presentation of the Bridge Study - Mr. Nick Casalanguida, Director,
Transportation Planning Department
6. Presentation of the Collier Inter-Active Growth Model (CIGM) - Dr. Paul Van
Buskirk, Van Buskirk, Ryffel and Associates, Inc.
7. Public Comment
8. Adjourn
INQUIRIES CONCERNING CHANGES TO THE BOARD'S AGENDA SHOULD BE
MADE TO THE COUNTY MANAGER'S OFFICE AT 774-8383.
COLLIER COUNTY FLORIDA
REQUEST FOR LEGAL ADVERTISING OF PUBLIC HEARINGS
(i)
To: Clerk to the Board: Please place the following as a:
o Normal legal Advertisement
(Display Adv., location, etc.)
o Other:
**********************************************************************************************************
Originating DeptJ Div: Comprehensive Planning Department
Person: Marcia R. Kendall
Date: 91I5/08
Petition No. (If none, give brief description): E951 Infrastructure and Services Horizon Study Public Participation Master Committee
Presentation to the Board of County Commissioners, they findings on the E951 Services & Infrastructure
Petitioner: (Name & Address): N/A
Name & Address of any person(s) to be notified by Clerk's Office: (Ifmore space is needed, attach separate sheet) N/A
Hearing before X BCC
BZA
Other
Requested Hearing date: SeDtember 29. 2008 (Based on advertisement appearing 7 days before hearing.
Newspaper(s) to be used: (Complete only if important):
X Naples Daily News
o Other
o Legally Required
Proposed Text: (Include legal description & common location & Size: See Attached
Companion petition(s), if any & proposed hearing date: N/A
Does Petition Fee include advertising cost? X Yes 0 No If Yes, what account should be charged for advertising costs:
III IJ8JI~QI00-00000 y- C;-DOO'8-=1 l (00
R<Vie~ttL q~'(,of
Division Administrator or Designee Date
List Attachments: Advertisement being requested
DISTRIBUTION INSTRUCTIONS
A. For hearings before BCC or BZA: Initiating person to complete one coy and obtain Division Head approval before
submitting to County Manager. Note: If legal document is involved, be sure that any necessary legal review, or request
for same, is submitted to County Attorney before submitting to County Manager. The Manager's office will distribute
copies:
o County Manager agenda fIle: to
Clerk's Office
o Requesting Division
o Original
B. Other hearings: Initiating Division head to approve and submit original to Clerk's Office, retaining a copy for me.
***********************************************************************************************************
FORCLERK.'~?~v~W~Ffio&'at<OfPubliehearieg,~ Dat<A_'~ II> ~
September 17,2008
Naples Daily News
1075 Central Avenue
Naples, FL 34102
Attn: Leoals@Naplesnews.com
Advertising Requirements
Please publish the following Advertisement on Sunday, September 21,2008 and
furnish proof of publication to the attention of Ms. Marcia Kendall, Comprehensive
Planning Department, 2800 N. Horseshoe Drive, Naples, FL 34104. The advertisement
must be placed in that portion of the newspaper where legal notices and classified
advertisements appear.
Please reference the fOllowing on ALL Invoices:
DEPARTMENT: COMPREHENSIVE PLANNING
FUND & COST CENTER: 111-138317-649100-00000
PURCHASE ORDER NUMBER: 4500087160
ACCOUNT NUMBER 068778
Notice of Public Meeting
East of 951 Infrastructure and Services Horizon Study Public Participation Master
Committee
Collier County, Florida
Monday, September 29, 2008 9:00 A.M.
The East of 951 Infrastructure and Services Horizon Study Public Participation Master
Committee will provide a final report to the Board of County Commissioners on the
Collier County East of CR 951 Services & Infrastructure Horizon Study. The meeting is
open to the public.
Time:
Location:
Purpose:
Monday, September 29, 2008 9:00 A.M.
Collier County Administration Building at 3301 E. Tamiami Trail, Naples,
FL 34112, Collier County, Florida
The East of 951 Infrastructure and Services Horizon Study Public
Participation Master Committee will provide to the Board of County
Commissioners a presentation on the Collier County East of CR 951
Services & Infrastructure Horizon Study
Any questions: please contact Mike Bosi, AICP, Community Planning Manager
michaelbosi@collieroov.net
BCC - E951 Horizon Committee Update to BCC 9/29/2008
Page 1 of1
Teresa L. Polaski
From: kendall_m [MarciaKendall@colliergov.net]
Sent: Monday, September 15, 2008 8:57 AM
To: Minutes and Records
Cc: Brock, Mary
Subject: BCC - E951 Horizon Committee Update to BCC 9/29/2008
Attachments: Public Meeting Notice - Naples Daily Neews CR951 Horizon28.doc;
Ad_Request_ Slip _E951_Horizon_BCC _9 _29 _ 08.pdf
There is currently no back-up to go with this advertisement request, however, you will be provided with a copy of
the agenda packet document when supplying to the BCC next week. Any questions, please feel free to contact
me at the number below or email. Hard copy will be sent via interoffice mail to both Clerk office and County
Manager Office. Thank you.
<<Public Meeting Notice - Naples Daily Neews CR951 Horizon28.doc>>
<<Ad _ Request_ SI ip _ E951_ Horizon _ BCC _9_29_08. pdf>>
Cordially,
Marcia
Marcia R. Kendall, Senior Planner
Comprehensive Planning Department
Phone 239-252-2387
Fax: 239-252-2946
Email: marciakendalI@colliergov.net
"To Exceed Customer Expectations"
ATTENTION: Be advised that under Florida's Government-in-the-Sunshine law, information contained within this email becomes public record, unless protected by
specific exemption. The law provides a right of access to governmental proceedings and documents at both the state and local levels. There is also a constitutionally
guaranteed right of access. For more information on this law, visit: Florida's Sunshine Law
9/15/2008
ACCT. #1230
September 15, 2008
Attn: Legals
Naples Daily News
1075 Central Avenue
Naples, Florida 34102
Re: Notice of E951 Infrastructure and Services Horizon Study Public
Participation Master Committee Meeting
Dear Legals:
Please advertise the above referenced notice on Sunday, September 21,
2008, and kindly send the Affidavit of Publication, in duplicate, together
with charges involved, to this office.
Thank you.
Sincerely,
Teresa Polaski,
Deputy Clerk
P.O. #4500087160
Notice of Public Meeting
East of 951 Infrastructure and Services Horizon Study Public Participation Master
Committee
Collier County, Florida
Monday, September 29, 2008 9:00 A.M.
The East of 951 Infrastructure and Services Horizon Study Public Participation Master
Committee will provide a final report to the Board of County Commissioners on the
Collier County East of CR 951 Services & Infrastructure Horizon Study. The meeting is
open to the public.
Time:
Location:
Purpose:
Monday, September 29, 2008 9:00 A.M.
Collier County Administration Building at 3301 E. Tamiami Trail, Naples,
FL 34112, Collier County, Florida
The East of 951 Infrastructure and Services Horizon Study Public
Participation Master Committee will provide to the Board of County
Commissioners a presentation on the Collier County East of CR 951
Services & Infrastructure Horizon Study
Any questions: please contact Mike Bosi, AICP, Community Planning Manager
michaelbosiaD.colliergov. net
COLLIER COUNTY FLORIDA
REQUEST FOR LEGAL ADVERTISING OF PUBLIC HEARINGS
To: Clerk to the Board: Please place the following as a:
o Normal legal Advertisement
(Display Adv., location, etc.)
o Other:
**********************************************************************************************************
Originating Dept/ Div: Comprehensive Planning Department
Person: Marcia R. Kendall
Date: 9/15/08
Petition No. (If none, give brief description): E951 Infrastructure and Services Horizon Study Public Participation Master Committee
Presentation to the Board of County Commissioners, they [mdings on the E951 Services & Infrastructure
Petitioner: (Name & Address): N/A
Name & Address of any person(s) to be notified by Clerk's Office: (If more space is needed, attach separate sheet) N/A
Hearing before X BCC
BZA
Other
Requested Hearing date: September 29,2008 (Based on advertisement appearing 7 days before hearing.
Newspaper(s) to be used: (Complete only if important):
X Naples Daily News
o Other
o Legally Required
Proposed Text: (Include legal description & common location & Size: See Attached
Companion petition(s), if any & proposed hearing date: N/ A
Does Petition Fee include advertising cost? X Yes 0 No If Yes, what account should be charged for advertising costs:
111-138317 -649100-00000
Re~~tlL
Division Administrator or Designee
q~'("or
Date
List Attachments: Advertisement being requested
DISTRIBUTION INSTRUCTIONS
A. For hearings before BCC or BZA: Initiating person to complete one coy and obtain Division Head approval before
submitting to County Manager. Note: If legal document is involved, be sure that any necessary legal review, or request
for same, is submitted to County Attorney before submitting to County Manager. The Manager's office will distribute
copies:
o County Manager agenda me: to
Clerk's Office
o Requesting Division
o Original
B. Other hearings: Initiating Division head to approve and submit original to Clerk's Office, retaining a copy for file.
***********************************************************************************************************
FOR CLERK'S OFFICE USE ONLY:
Date Received:
Date of Public hearing:
Date Advertised:
September 17, 2008
Naples Daily News
1075 Central Avenue
Naples, FL 34102
Attn: Leoals@Naplesnews.com
Advertising Requirements
Please publish the following Advertisement on Sunday, September 21,2008 and
furnish proof of publication to the attention of Ms. Marcia Kendall, Comprehensive
Planning Department, 2800 N. Horseshoe Drive, Naples, FL 34104. The advertisement
must be placed in that portion of the newspaper where legal notices and classified
advertisements appear.
Please reference the followino on ALL Invoices:
DEPARTMENT: COMPREHENSIVE PLANNING
FUND & COST CENTER: 111-138317-649100-00000
PURCHASE ORDER NUMBER: 4500087160
ACCOUNT NUMBER 068778
Notice of Public Meeting
East of 951 Infrastructure and Services Horizon Study Public Participation Master
Committee
Collier County, Florida
Monday, September 29, 20089:00 A.M.
The East of 951 Infrastructure and Services Horizon Study Public Participation Master
Committee will provide a final report to the Board of County Commissioners on the
Collier County East of CR 951 Services & Infrastructure Horizon Study. The meeting is
open to the public.
Purpose:
Monday, September 29, 20089:00 A.M.
Collier County Administration Building at 3301 E. Tamiami Trail, Naples,
FL 34112, Collier County, Florida
The East of 951 Infrastructure and Services Horizon Study Public
Participation Master Committee will provide to the Board of County
Commissioners a presentation on the Collier County East of CR 951
Services & Infrastructure Horizon Study
Time:
Location:
Any questions: please contact Mike Bosi, AICP, Community Planning Manager
michaelbosi@collieroov.net
Teresa L. Polaski
To:
Subject:
legals@naplesnews.com
951 Infrastructure and Horizon Study Meeting
Attachments:
E951 Infrastructure and Services Horizon Study .doc; BCC Notice-CR951 Horizon28.doc
Legals,
Please advertise the following on Sunday, September 21, 2008, Thanks
E951 BCC Notice-CR951
:1structure and Ser Horizon28.doc...
Teresa L. Polaski, BMR Clerk III
Clerk to the Board of County Commissioners
Minutes and Records Department
239-252-8411
239-252-8408 fax
(T eresa.Po laski@collierclerk.com)
1
Teresa L. Polaski
From:
Sent:
To:
Subject:
postmaster@collierclerk.com
Monday, September 15, 2008 3:13 PM
Teresa L. Polaski
Delivery Status Notification (Relay)
Attachments:
ATT200312.txt; 951 Infrastructure and Horizon Study Meeting
1;;1
~
A TT200312.txt
(231 B)
951
:structure and Hori
This is an automatically generated Delivery Status Notification.
Your message has been successfully relayed to the following recipients, but the requested
delivery status notifications may not be generated by the destination.
legals@naplesnews.com
1
Teresa L. Polaski
From:
Sent:
To:
Subject:
Pagan, Emely [EPagan@Naplesnews.com]
Wednesday, September 17, 20089:58 AM
Teresa L. Polaski
Ad Confirmation
Attachments:
UASBFB.jpg
UASBFB.jpg (32
KB)
ublishing Sept. 21
Thanks,
Em
Thank you
Date
Publication
Account Number
Ad Number
Total Ad Cost
for placing your ad.
09/17/08
NDN
744100
1738781
$151.70
1
R~CEIVED
NOV 0 3 2008
FiLED 41
COi !. 1'-1(" ;~'-,!_~'{TY r; 0
NAPLES DAILY N~NCE DEPT. -., . '" , ., , ,. RIDA
Published Daih 2UU9 OCT 3 I
Naples, FL 34102
M'I II: 55
//
CLER;;uf COURTS
Affidavit of Publication
State of Florida BY.
County of Collier
----,_o.c.
Before the undersigned they serve as the authority, personally
appeared B. Lamb, who on oath says that they
serve as the Assistant Corporate Secretary of the Naples Daily,
a daily newspaper published at Naples, in Collier County.
Florida; distributed in Collier and Lee counties of Florida; that
the attached copy of the advertising. being a
PUBLIC NOTICE
in the matter of PUBLIC NOTICE
was published in said newspaper 1 time in the issue
On September 21 ", 2008
Aniant /urther says that the said Naples Daily ?\ews is a nev.'spaper
Published at Naples, ill collier county, Florida and that the said
newspaper has heretofore been continuously published in said Collier
County, Florida; distributed in Collier and J ,cc counties of Florida,
each day and has been entered as second class mail matter at the post
office in Naples, in said Collier County, Florida, for a period of ]
year next preceding the 11rst publication of the attached copy of
advertisement; and afliant further says that he has neither paid nor
promised any person, firm or corporation any discounl, rebate,
commission or refund tor the purpose of securing this advertisement for
publication in the said newspaper.
j] ----i
( Signature of affiant)
Sworn to and subscribed before me
This 28'h Day Of October 2008
~ ~ C\GJvJ)D
(Signat re of ta publit\J
FEI ';9.257832
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CorrmlSsion DO 675029
Expires May 16, 2011 ,
rX';'d"jT~Tt;!l()vfJI"II>~lIrar.c9~.3B!j.70,9
Collier County East of
County Road 951
Infrastructure and Services
a..QIa Stu.dy
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Prepared by Comprehensive Planning
Community Development & Environmental Services
2800 North Horseshoe Drive
Naples, F134104
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Presentation to Board of County Commissioners (BCC) of the East of County Road
951 Infrastructure and Services Horizon Study.
OBJECTIVE: Request that the BCC review the East of County Road 951
Infrastructure and Services Horizon Study; consider the position points provided for
within the Public Participation Phase of the written report; provide Transportation with a
directive related to the Bridge Study, as contained in Section to two of the final report;
and review the Collier County Inter-Active Growth model and provide direct for the
CIGM to be brought before the Planning Commission and Productivity Committee to
provide a recommendation on the annual updating of the CIGM.
BACKGROUND: The East of County Road 951 Infrastructure and Services Horizon
Study has been a four year long planning effort to assess the County's ability to
accommodate growth within the County east of Collier Boulevard, County Road 951.
The Horizon Study was initiated in June of 2004 by the BCC and was based upon the
recognition of the need for a comprehensive, long range planning effort to evaluate the
county's ability to accommodate growth and development within the area East of County
Road 951. The Horizon Study is separated within two Phases. The first phase, the
Preliminary Report, which the BCC heard at a May 24, 2006 workshop, identified three
levels of service for each of the infrastructure and service providers within the Study area
and attempted to allocate cost associated with the projected infrastructure and services
outlay. The first phase of the project was a 24 month long assessment and development
of three potential infrastructure and service provisions scenarios from the various
infrastructure and service providing divisions/departments throughout the County.
At the May 24, 2006 workshop, the BCC directed for the second phase of the Study to
gain insight from the property owners of the Study area to assist in developing priorities
for the County's future expenditures on capital infrastructure and services. To direct the
second phase of the Study, the BCC created the Horizon Study Public Participation
Master Committee. The East of CR951 Horizon Study Public Participation process,
steered by the Public Participation Master Committee was a 23 month long process of
public presentations designed to inform the general public of the specifics of the
provisions of the various infrastructure and service providers, while professionally
polling and soliciting input from the residents of the Study area in relation to their
perspectives related to those identified potential growth outlays and the cost identified
within the first Phase.
As part of the public participation process, the Master Committee held two successive
meetings to discuss the issue of Transportation planning. Like all components of the
Preliminary Study, the Transportation component provided a working meeting to the
Committee, which was held in Immokalee, and a public participation meeting. These
meetings were held in December 2007, and January 2008. It was during these
interactions between the Master Committee and the Transportation Department that the
SEPTEMBER 29, 2008 HORIZON STUDY BCC WORKSHOP
- 1 -
benefit for a Bridge Study became apparent. As part of the discussions with the
Transportation planning staff, the concept of increasing the mobility within the Golden
Gate Estates through a series of strategically placed bridges resurfaced. During the 2003
update of the Golden Gate Area Master Plan, the concept of bridging strategic locations
within the Sub-district was promoted. These direct conversations between the Master
Committee and Transportation initiated the Bridge Study detailed within Section II of this
report.
In addition to the public participation portion of Phase II, as well as the correlated Bridge
Study, the phase was also comprised of the development of the Collier County Interactive
Growth Model (CIGM). At the inception of the East ofCR951 Study, the BCC issued a
policy directive that the study would not include a land use component. The intent
behind the directive was that future land use changes should not be the impetus behind
analyzing infrastructure needs in the area east of CR951. Although this intent was
fundamentally sound in concept, generally accepted planning practices and principles
recognize the need to link land use planning with transportation planning and other
infrastructure needs. Based upon this recognition, the BCC at the May 24, 2006 hearing
of the Preliminary Report, the BCC directed staff to enter into a contract with Van
Buskirk, Ryffel and Associates to initiate the development of a land use modeling tool to
assist with timing and locational decisions related to infrastructure and service provisions.
The attached Horizon Study is segregated within three primary sections: Section I, the
Public Participation Process; Section II, the Bridge Study and Section III, the Interactive
Growth Model. The specifics of each of these sections are contained within the Horizon
Study and provide the context for the recommendations within this executive summary
GROWTH MANAGEMENT IMPACT: The impacts to the Growth Management Plan
are numerous. A number of the position points may lead to direct amendments of the
GMP. Specifically, the position point calling for a re-examination
RECOMMENDATION: That the Collier County Board of County Commissioners take
the following action:
For the Public Participation Process - The Committee request that the BCC take
appropriate action on the individual position points advanced by the Horizon Study
Committee when appropriate. .
For the Bridge Study - Staff recommendation to adopt the Bridge Study and to proceed
with construction of the bridges east of CR 951 as prioritized in the study subject to
available funding.
For the Growth Model - Staff recommends that the BCC provides direction for the
CIGM to be presented to the Planning Commission for the PC to make a recommendation
to the BCC regarding the annual update of the model.
Prepared by Mike Bosi, AICP, Comprehensive Planning Manager
SEPTEMBER 29, 2008 HORIZON STUDY BCC WORKSHOP
-2-
Table of Contents
Collier County East of CR951 Infrastructure and Services
Infrastructure Horizon Study
Section One............................................lntroduction and Public Participation Process
Pages 1-1 through 1-88
Section Two......... H' .............. ... ... ......................................._............... .............. B ridge Study
Pages 2-1 through 2-45
Section Three...............................................Collier Inter-Active Growth Model (ClGM)
Pages 3-1 through 3-57
Appendix
Exhibit "All.......................................................... The Horizon Study Preliminary Report
Exhibit "8N................................................ Collier Soil & Water Conservation District
Submission to the Horizon Study Committee
Exhibit 1/('1.......................... ................ National Multiple Sclerosis Society Submission
to the Horizon Study Committee
Exhibit "DN......."...................................Original Survey Distributed to 2,150 registered
voters in the Study Area
Introduction
The Collier Board of County Commissioners at its June 29, 2004 meeting with a
thorough recommendation from the County Manager recognized the need for a
comprehensive, long range planning effort to evaluate the county's ability to
accommodate growth and development within the area East of County Road 951. A
strong emphasis was placed on the County's ability to provide the potential necessary
capital infrastructure and services while maintaining the financial feasibility as set forth
in the Capital Improvements Element (CIE) and the Annual Update and Inventory Report
(AUIR).
At that time, the County was experiencing tremendous pressures from the development
community for new housing products throughout the urbanized and the rural portions of
the County. Those development pressures have waned considerably due to both macro
(global) and micro (local) economic factors, but the County with its unique combination
of locational amenities is expected to more than double its current population at build-
out. A majority of that growth is expected to transpire within the area east of County
Road 951, and while the growth rate of the County has waned over the past two years, the
longer term necessity of the planning effort has not.
Moreover, the intention of the planning effort was to better understand how the property
owners in the area East of County Road 951 viewed the potential growth within the study
area, and how those residents felt that growth could best affect the levels of service for
governmental infrastructure and service providers. These two primary factors resulted in
the development of the Collier County East of CR951 Services and Infrastructure
Horizon Study (the Study). The Study, to satisfy these two primary goals, was bifurcated
within a phased process.
The first phase, the Preliminary Report (Exhibit" A"), which the BCC heard at a May
24, 2006 workshop, identified three levels of service for each of the infrastructure and
service providers within the Study area and attempted to allocate costs associated with
the projected infrastructure and services outlay. The first phase of the project was a 24
month long assessment and development of three potential infrastructure and service
provisions scenarios from the various infrastructure and service-providing
divisions/departments throughout the County. To provide the base for the three potential
capital outlays and costs associated with those outlays, the 2005 Build-Out Study,
compiled by the Comprehensive Planning Department, was utilized.
The 2005 Build-Out Study, based upon the development permitted by the regulatory
structure of the Land Development Code and Growth Management Plan, in place at the
time of the effort, projected a county-wide population projection of 1,066,420 and for the
Study area east of CR951, a population projection of 688,489. It was from the population
projections contained in the 2005 Build-Out study that each of the options for
infrastructure and services identified in the Preliminary Report were based.
1-1
The first level of service of the three identified within the Preliminary Report was
identified as "Option One." Option One focused upon what would transpire in the
subject area if no additional infrastructure or public services were added. The second
level of service was identified as "Option Two." Option Two included different
meanings, choices or options within the various subject areas. Option Two focused on
the provision of infrastructure and services above what was currently available, but below
an Urbanized level of service. The third level of service, Option Three, was the optimum
level and in most cases provided an urban level of service for the study area.
It should be noted that Option Three is the only option provided for by the Growth
Management Plan within specific components of the Capital Improvement Element
(CIE). For example, Collier County has an adopted level of service for County Parks, the
provision of which, the only option is to maintain that premium level of service on a
county-wide basis.
For each of the identified service or infrastructure providing departments identified
within Phase One of the Study, estimates of cost of providing their respective service at
the various levels were attempted. Below is a summary of the estimated cost for the
various identified levels of service. It should be noted that these were 2005 estimates
based upon population projections and development trends and should not be construed
as absolutes.
Total Cost Summary
$8,000,000,000
$10,000,000,000
$6,000,000,000 /$3,989,947,215
$4,000,000,000 " ,
$2,000,000,000 .///
$0
Option One
Option Two
Option Three
1-2
'Epftli$portatiop
~~~U.~,JlmiDes
Potable Water
Wast.ewater
Libraries
Schools.
Parks &
R~creation
Emel\'gency
S, erv, i~e$IEl\fS'
....I)"'.;:'.~';,<w,"it::,(A:....,' ..... .
M~Cf ';, t&
siW~. '"iy.
~~.,.~.~~~~~~
Eiw..".'.' ..'. .'''}
Enforcement
Correctional
Facilities
Total
* Estimate excludes land
cost
Option One
$2,500,000,000
$0
$0
$0
$57,027,000
$1,044,000,000
$101,000,000
Option Two
$3,490,000,000
$145,573,000
$50,330,000
$95,243,000
$77,596,000
$1,044,000,000
$371,400,000
Option Three
$3,940,000,000
$2,454,080,000
$909,360,000
$1,544,720,000
$99,086,000
$1,044,000,000
$755,200,000
$497,752 $81,495,000 $92,795,000
$184,474,839 $184,474,839 $184,474,839
$102,947,624 $102,947,624 $102,947,624
Option One Option Two Option Three
$3,989,947,215 $5,497,486,463 $8,672,583,463
Based upon the three cost estimates provided for above, compared against a revenue
estimate that fulfilled only the first option, Option One, the necessity for the second phase
of the Horizon study was established. While both the cost and the revenue projects were
based upon estimates, that most certainly will change as the macro and micro economic
conditions evolve, it became obvious that the County, as it progresses towards build-out,
will be faced with financial decisions regarding capital outlays for infrastructure and
services often in competition against one another. Additionally, this is set against a
current state political environment of a top down approach to government that has
dictated numerous unfunded mandates, as well as inadequately analyzed financial
restrictions, which have severely curtailed a local government's ability to raise the
required revenue to accommodate growth and the associated infrastructure. As a result
the BCC directed the second phase of the Study to gain insight from the property owners
1-3
in the Study area in order to assist in developing priorities for the County's future
expenditures on capital infrastructure and services.
To direct the second phase of the Study, the BCC created the Horizon Study Public
Participation Master Committee. The Committee was comprised of fifteen (15) members
of the general public and represented a broad base of citizens, business and property
owners within the Study area.
The East of CR951 Horizon Study Public Participation process, steered by the Public
Participation Master Committee was a 23-month long process of public presentations
designed to inform the general public of the specifics of the provisions of the various
infrastructure and service providers, while professionally researching through a survey
mailed to the residents of the Study area to obtain their perspectives related to those
identified potential growth outlays and the cost identified within the first Phase.
As noted, to direct the public participation process, the Horizon Study Public
Participation Master Committee, a committee partially appointed by the BCC on
September 26th and fully filled on November 28t\ 2006, was created by the BCC. The
Master Committee, over a two year period beginning in the fall of 2006 and culminating
in fall of 2008, met twenty-five times. With the exception of the first meeting and a
December 2007 Transportation meeting that was held in Immokalee, the meetings were
held at the University of Florida/Collier County Agricultural Extension office at 14700
lmmokalee Road. A more detailed description of the individual meetings and the
Horizon Study Master Committee Public Participation process is in Section I of this
report.
As part of the public participation process, the Master Committee held two meetings to
discuss the issue of Transportation planning. Like all components of the Preliminary
Study, the Transportation component provided a working meeting to the Committee,
which was held in Immokalee, followed by a public participation meeting. These
meetings were held in December 2007, and January 2008.
It was during these interactions between the Master Committee and the Transportation
Department that the benefit for a study for potential bridges in the Estates became
apparent. As part of the discussions with the Transportation planning staff, the concept
of increasing the mobility within the Golden Gate Estates through a series of strategically
placed bridges resurfaced. During the 2003 update of the Golden Gate Area Master Plan,
the concept of bridging strategic locations within the Sub-district was promoted. These
direct conversations between the Master Committee and Transportation initiated the
Bridge Study detailed within Section II of this report.
In addition to the public participation portion of Phase II, as well as the correlated Bridge
Study, the phase was also comprised of the development of the Collier County Interactive
Growth Model (CIGM). At the inception of the East ofCR951 Study, the BCC issued a
policy directive that the study would not include a land use component. The intent
behind the directive was that future land use changes should not be the impetus behind
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analyzing infrastructure needs in the area east of CR951. Although this intent was
fundamentally sound in concept, generally accepted planning practices and principles
recognize the need to link land use planning with transportation planning and other
infrastructure needs. Based upon this recognition, the BCC at the May 24, 2006 hearing
of the Preliminary Report, directed staff to enter into a contract with Van Buskirk, Ryffel
and Associates to initiate the development of a land use modeling tool to assist with
timing and locational decisions related to infrastructure and service provisions.
The CIGM, a trademarked commodity, developed by Van Buskirk, Ryffel and Associates
Inc., is designed to improve Collier County's population forecast methods and establish a
growth modeling planning methodology projecting growth and development, particularly
the amount and distribution of land uses and corresponding public infrastructure and
services east of County Road 9511Collier Boulevard. The growth model is a Graphic
Information System (GIS) planning/modeling tool which is developed using land use
allocations provided for within the Future Land Use Element (FLUE) of the Growth
Management Plan (GMP) to the parcels that make up the Study area. As noted, as part of
Phase I of the Study, Comprehensive Planning developed the 2005 Build-Out Study. The
Build-Out Study, following the original design of the Horizon Study Preliminary Report,
based population projections on the current zoning and Growth Management Plan
regulations.
The Build-Out Study as an attempt to project the maximum amount of development that
could be permitted by the current regulations, did not attempt to determine the exact
timing or location for future population growth, only what the potential amount of
development and corresponding population could be based upon the regulations. The
decision to develop the Collier Interactive Growth Model (CIGM) as an infrastructure
modeling tool was influenced by the Model's ability to spatially and chronologically
distribute growth towards build-out.
Additionally, the decision to develop the CIGM was influenced by the recognition that
large scale errors in the amount and timing of population projections can be quite costly
to a community. An example is provided on a national level related to the baby boom,
which began in the late 1940s and lasted until the early 1960s and produced huge
increases in public school enrollments. In the 1970s many communities, based upon the
huge increase in the school enrollments they had experienced during the decades of the
1950s and 1960s, made substantial investments in new school buildings, assuming the
trends would continue into the foreseeable future. As a result, many communities found
themselves with an overbuilt, underused school facility infrastructure in the 1970s. The
development of the CIGM is designed to help mitigate this sort of problem in the County
in the provision of infrastructure and services.
The development of the Collier Interactive Growth Model, per the contract, followed an
18 month development schedule, which was extended an additional four months to reflect
the adjusted time frame for the public participation phase dictated by the Horizon Study
Master Committee. The data collection phase of the process was completed through the
collaborative efforts of the consultant team and County Staff. The next stage of the
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model's development was focused upon population forecasting by Traffic Analysis Zone
(TAZ) and the development of the specific sub-models per the contract. The sub-models
are designed to assist in modeling for such areas as commercial square footage and
industrial square footage needs, school facilities, parks, libraries, fire districts, emergency
medical services and law enforcement. The sub-models are anticipated to complement
the AUIR process and GMP in guiding and preparing for growth and development.
The next stage of the development of the CIGM focused on the factors the model utilizes
to determine growth and the intensity associated with future development.
Communication between the consultant and staff was the key component of this stage of
development. As indicated, as the model's development moved forward, information on
assumptions for development were solicited from the various departments/divisions
throughout the County. Additionally, the consultant team attended five Horizon Study
Master Committee meetings to solicit suggestions from the Committee and to discuss the
models' baseline information as well as the model's growth assumptions for the various
sub-areas comprising the Study area.
Additionally, the Model, through a contract modification request which appeared before
the BCC on the April 8, 2008 agenda, has provided for the land use modeling required to
update the Long Range Transportation Plan (LRTP). This will allow for consistency
between the two models and should better harmonize the County's infrastructure
planning by bringing a common base to validate Transportation capital outlays associated
with growth. A more detailed description of the Collier Interactive Growth Model is
provided for within Section III of this report.
This report is divided into three primary sections: Section I, the Public Participation
Process; Section II, the Bridge Study and Section III, the Interactive Growth Model. In
addition to the three sections which comprise the body, the report contains the following
Exhibits: Exhibit "A" - The Horizon Study Preliminary Report, Exhibit "B" - Collier
Soil & Water Conservation District Submission to the Horizon Study Committee, Exhibit
"C" - National Multiple Sclerosis Society Submission to the Horizon Study Committee.
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Section I
The Public Participation Process
Prepared by the Collier County Comprehensive
Planning Department
The East of CR951 Horizon Study Public Participation process, steered by the Public
Participation Master Committee was a 23 month long process of public presentations
designed to inform the general public of the specifics of the provisions of the various
infrastructure and service providers, while gathering information from the residents,
property owners and business interest in the Study area in relation to their perspectives
related to those identified potential growth outlays and the cost identified within the first
Phase. Below is the list of meetings held by the Master Committee to carry out its
purpose of soliciting public suggestions related to the Horizon Study and a summary of
the general discussion at each of the meetings
Horizon Study Public Participation Meetin2 Timeline and Summaries
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Monday, October 16, beginning at 7:00 P.M.
Golden Gate Community Center, 4701 Golden Gate Parkway in Golden
Gate City, Collier County, Florida
The purpose for the introductory meeting was to review of the East of
CR951 Infrastructure and Services Horizon Study and encourage
discussion, an overview of the designated purpose of the Master
Committee, and the adoption of rules and procedures for the transaction of
business.
The subjects of the initial meeting were orientated to the goals and
purposes of the Horizon Committee. Commissioner Coletta opened the
meeting and welcomed the newly appointed Committee members and
provided a brief overview of the Board of County Commissioner's
aspirations for the Committee. He clearly articulated that the direction the
Committee was to take was to be steered by the Committee itself. Each
Committee member introduced themselves to the group and listen to a
staff presentation of the Preliminary Report. Bill McDaniel was appointed
Chairman and Linda Hartman Vice-Chair by Committee vote. A decision
to hold future meetings at the University of Florida/Collier County
Agricultural Extension office was reached by majority vote.
Monday, November 27, 2006 beginning at 6:30 P.M.
Collier County UF/IF AS Extension Education & Training Center located
at 14700 Immokalee Road, Naples, FL 34120, Collier County, Florida
The purpose for the meeting was to establish organizational protocol
related to the Sunshine Law, public suggestions, goals and objectives,
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refinement of project time line, and future meeting schedule, location and
subject matter.
The initial portion of the meeting focused on review of the Sunshine Law
applicable to Ad-hoc Committees. The meeting then transitioned to a
discussion from the Committee members regarding their expectations,
Examples: "Identify infrastructure needs east of CR951", "Soliciting the
public's input is a function of the Committee, but not decisions", "Role is
both information gathering and to make recommendations", Questions for
the public should be fair, neutral and written well to get a response",
"Concern should be getting the public involved", " Need to ensure
responses from public are incorporated within the decision making
process". Agreement was reached to develop a questionnaire based on
Preliminary Horizon study. Agreement was also reached on meeting
format - presentation from experts and staff, discussion by board, then
public participation.
Tuesday, December 19, 2006 beginning at 7:00 P.M.
Collier County UF/IFAS Extension Education & Training Center located
at 14700 Immokalee Road, Naples, FL 34120, Collier County, Florida
The purpose for the meeting was to discuss the development of the Collier
Interactive Growth Model, by Van Buskirk, Ryffel and Associates and,
discussion of staff's refinement of project time line, and availability and
capability of the Horizon study web-site.
The Committee welcomed the final two appointees and sat at full
membership with fifteen members. The Committee heard a presentation
from Van Buskirk, Ryffel and Associates, Inc., the consultant firm
contracted to develop the Collier Interactive Growth Model. The Collier
Interactive Growth Model is a supplemental planning tool that will be
applied to the area east of 951 and some areas to the immediate west that
are contiguous with 951 to forecast build-out population and distribution.
The Model will forecast when and where growth will take place, and will
facilitate planning to manage growth and its impacts, including
recommendations for land uses by type and distribution in order to address
the needs of the population over time. The Model will produce a
population forecast to build-out in five-year increments. The County's
own preliminary build-out population estimate for the area East of CR951
was 700,000. The Model will distribute the population through the study
area and use the population allocation and distribution to work with
various sub-models. The East of 951 Infrastructure and Services Horizon
Study Public Participation Master Plan Committee will be asked to review
progress and provide comments and suggestions on a quarterly basis. The
Committee offered a few comments related to the Growth Model
presentation. For Example: "Will the time frame for the model's
development allow for input from the Committee?"; "The community has
quirks that will have to be addressed with some areas which will require
all public services, while others will not"; "It will be a challenge to
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/
integrate the RLSA overlay district within the model". In addition to the
Growth Model discussion the Committee discussed a timeline of meeting
schedules and topics to ensure all aspects of the Preliminary Report would
be covered by the Committee. There was also discussion on posting
updates to the Committee's progress on a web-site. Finally, it was
concluded that the Committee needed to be driven by public suggestions
and the importance to get those suggestions early on in the process.
Monday, January 22, 2007 beginning at 7:00 P.M.
Collier County UF/IFAS Extension Education & Training Center located
at 14700 Immokalee Road, Naples, FL 34120, Collier County, Florida
The purpose for the meeting was for the introduction of the consultant
team of Fraser & Mohlke Associates, Inc, to the process and the topic of
the meeting will center upon a preliminary public opinion survey.
The Committee was introduced to Chuck Mohlke, of Fraser & MoWke
Associates Inc., the public opinion consultant firm retained by the BCC to
assist in the public portion of the Phase II process. The consultant and the
Committee discussed the various methods and approaches towards public
surveying and began to establish the basis for research methods suggested
by the Committee. The consultant passed out copies of the Golden Gate
Restudy to review. Mr. Mohlke responded to a question concerning
creating a questionnaire early in the process by saying he was, "cautious to
prepare a preliminary questionnaire before directly inter-acting with the
Committee. There needs to be an understanding of where the Committee
wants to go before completing an initial survey." It was pointed out to the
Committee that the developments in the Rural Lands Stewardship Area
were required to be fiscally neutral to the county, but Levels of Service
Standards (LOSS) are not dictated by regulations and such LOSS need to
be identified. Mr. Mohlke noted there will be common questions for the
entire Study area, but also unique questions related to meeting presenters
or the sample group that will be surveyed. The Committee moved to have
a questionnaire/survey prepared based on the Preliminary Report and
Committee member preferences. The Committee indicated that their work
must focus on asking the larger macro-level questions. The Committee
was asked to review the Golden Gate Restudy and designate questions
they felt important. A representative of the Sherriffs Office asked the
Committee to keep in mind that the Sherriffs Office was seeking a way to
ask the public about their desired services and the Sherriffs Office would
like to work with the Committee.
Monday, February 12, 2007 beginning at 7:00 P.M.
Collier County UF /IF AS Extension Education & Training Center located
at 14700 Immokalee Road, Naples, FL 34120, Collier County, Florida
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The purpose for the meeting was for the further refinement of the survey
questionnaire as well as specifics of the upcoming public participation
meeting.
The Committee reviewed the process of the study research as outlined in
the "Research Services Notebook", prepared by Fraser & Mohlke
Associates, Inc., including the Research Methodologies, Questionnaire
Development, Horizon Study Background Analysis, Study Documentation
and 2005 Collier County Opinion Study. The consultant proposed that at
a minimum the voters are broken out by zip code. Also, a sample plan for
the survey will be reviewed at the next meeting showing the representative
voters by zip codes. The discussion included several suggestions on how
to carry out the study. Discussion ensued on questions to be included in
the survey with the resolution that the choice of questions will be
addressed at the next meeting. The Committee moved to accept the
proposed research methodology. The motion passed 8-1. The Committee
then moved to discuss the first staff presentation to the Committee from
Public Utilities. It was decided that the first Public Participation Meeting
would be held at the Agricultural Extension Multi-purpose room. The
Committee provided direction for the order of the public participation
meeting and requested that all media available be utilized to advertise for
the meeting.
Monday, March 19,2007 beginning at 7:00 P.M.
Collier County UF/IF AS Extension Education & Training Center located
at 14700 Immokalee Road, Naples, FL 34120, Collier County, Florida
The purpose for the meeting was for a preliminary presentation from
Collier County Public Utilities and subsequent discussion concerning the
upcoming April public participation meeting.
Public Utilities provided a presentation focusing upon the cost estimates
provided for within the Preliminary Study and the estimated $111,000 per
parcel price tag associated with extending potable water and wastewater to
the Estates. A number of Committee members suggested it would be
better to bring a fire suppression system to the Estates and that gravity
sewer will not work in Golden Gate Estates. Another member suggested
looking at future development and requiring developers to pay water cost.
Overall the Committee had severe reservations over the concept of
extension of Utilities in the Estates, noting that there has been no
environmental analysis undertaken on what the effect will be in the future
with and without the water system being installed. The Committee
recognized the need for more effort and co-ordination among local, state
and federal government concerning the long term viability of the current
well and septic system of the Estates. The remaining portion of the
meeting focused upon the questionnaire to be distributed at the April
Public Participation meeting.
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Monday, April 16, 2007 beginning at 7:00 P.M.
Collier County UF/IFAS Extension Education & Training Center located
at 14700 Immokalee Road, Naples, FL 34120, Collier County, Florida
Collier County Public Utilities presented, for public discussion, various
potential options for water and/or wastewater extension to portions and/or
all of the Estates District.
The meeting was the first Public Participation Meeting held by the
Committee. Approximately 110 people attended. All other meetings to
date, have been open to the public, but were not publicly advertised in the
Naples Daily News as an invitation to the public to let their voices be
heard on specific subject matter. Instead, the meeting dates were noticed
in accordance with Collier County policy. The Committee Chairman
provided an overview of the Preliminary Report and the mission of the
Horizon Committee. Public Utilities provided a PowerPoint presentation
of the cost estimates to bring potable water and waste water to the Estates
and clarified that there was no intention to implement expansion. The
Collier County Health Department representative stated that they regulate
all of the septic tanks in Collier County and that it is their finding that with
the new systems being installed there are no signs of ground water
contamination. The Public expressed concerns over the costs of the
project and indicated that water and sewer were not needed and that their
interest lies with fire suppression. A straw poll was taken of all attendees
and everyone indicated they were against the extension of utilities to the
Estates and the cost associated with the project. Concerns were expressed
by the public in attendance over health issues associated with septic tank
infiltration into the water table and the aquifers related to development and
the effect that development will have on the longer term viability of the
current well and septic system.
Monday, May 14,2007 beginning at 7:00 P.M.
Collier County UF/IF AS Extension Education & Training Center located
at 14700 Immokalee Road, Naples, FL 34120, Collier County, Florida
Collier County Parks and Recreation provided a preliminary presentation
concerning potential park facilities to the master committee and the
discussion of the 1 st Public Participation meeting.
The Committee heard a presentation from Public Services Administration
concerning the Park and Library components of the preliminary report and
the manner in which the Department undertakes park and library planning.
A person from the public commented that he would prefer more small
parks than large ones; another person expressed concerns with safety in
small parks. It was suggested that there are a large number of children
within the subject area. More open public space in parks was also
suggested. The Committee requested specific information for the next
Public Participation Meeting. The Committee then discussed the April
Public Participation meeting. A Committee member suggested that the
County needs to address septic seepage, how these issues need to be
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addressed, and that the issue of hiring personnel to review the potential
problem should be included in the questionnaire. The Committee made
suggestions to the public opinion consultant on the way that questions are
written and noted that the questions should not ask how the County was
doing. It was suggested that a meeting be held in Immokalee for those
persons living in the northern section on the County.
Monday, June 11,2007 beginning at 7:00 P.M.
Collier County UF /IF AS Extension Education & Training Center located
at 14700 Immokalee Road, Naples, FL 34120, Collier County, Florida
Collier County Sheriffs Office provided a preliminary presentation
concerning potential facilities and services east of CR 951 to the master
committee and a discussion ofthe upcoming Public Participation meeting.
The June meeting centered on a presentation from the Sheriffs Office.
The discussion was mainly on the internal planning process of the
Sherriff s Office and the cost of providing service and the recognition that
if a higher level of service was desired then there would have to be an
increase in costs. The Committee requested information related to law
enforcement staffing and calls for service within the study area be made
available for the July Public Participation meeting. The Committee, after
their interaction with the Sheriffs Office, discussed the questionnaire for
the upcoming Public Participation meeting and provided specific
instruction to the consultant regarding the questions to be utilized.
Monday, July 9,2007 beginning at 7:00 P.M.
Collier County UF /IF AS Extension Education & Training Center located
at 14700 Immokalee Road, Naples, FL 34120, Collier County, Florida
Collier County Parks and Recreation Department and Sheriffs Office
presented, for public discussion, various potential options for facilities and
services in portions and/or the entire east of CR951 study area.
The July meeting was the second Public Participation meeting focusing on
Law Enforcement, Libraries and Parks. Roughly 50 people attended the
meeting. Presentations were made by each respective department, after an
overview of the Horizon Study was provided by the Committee's
Chairman. The questions from the public regarding parks centered on
specific locations for planned or existing facilities and the type of
amenities available. The public had few questions related to libraries,
other than how the location is determined. The discussion with the
Sheriffs Office focused on the relationship between density and crime and
the physical geographic realities affecting response times in the study area
due to low density. Additionally, the cost of illegal immigration on the
Sheriff's Office was discussed. Also, the Sheriff s Office current effort to
build public safety facilities with Emergency Medical Services was
stressed. The surveys distributed at the meeting revealed that the public
had a number of preferences related to Parks, Libraries, and Law
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Enforcement. Regarding the need for new parks and libraries within the
next ten years to meet their needs, the public agreed strongly agreement
that increases are necessary in both services. For Law Enforcement, the
public identified 'grow houses", human and drug smuggling and traffic
enforcement as the areas they were most concerned about.
Monday, August 13, 2007 beginning at 7:00 P.M.
Collier County UF/IF AS Extension Education & Training Center located
at 14700 Immokalee Road, Naples, FL 34120, Collier County, Florida
Collier County Emergency Medical Services presented a preliminary
presentation of various potential options for facilities and services in
portions and/or all of the east ofCR951 study area.
Emergency Medical Services (EMS) provided a presentation to the
Committee at the meeting. The presentation focused upon the three levels
of services provided for by the Preliminary report. EMS indicated that
stand alone EMS stations identified in the third level of service proposed
were not economically feasible based upon the projected impact fee
revenue and ad valorum taxes. The discussion also focused on the
Departments relationship to the independent fire districts. It was pointed
out by the Committee that EMS's relationships with all of the fire districts
needed to be standardized and the public only benefits when all
departments work well together. The regulations within the Rural Lands,
which require dedications for space for EMS, were addressed by the
Committee. The public questions focused upon areas receiving the
highest volume of calls and whether EMS had access to any of the GAC
lands. The difference between Category "A" and Category "B" facilities
in relation to the Capital Improvements Element (CIE) of the GMP was
discussed and it was clarified that EMS is not state regulated and although
addressed in the AUIR, it is not a component of the CIE. After the
presentation from EMS, the Committee discussed the vacant position on
the Committee and the need for the Chairman to address the BCC in
relationship to the overall purpose of the Committee. A number of
members felt that during the GMP amendment hearings before the BCC,
the BCC was prescribing a different role for the Committee than what was
understood by the Committee. The Committee motioned to have the
Chairman dispel the notion that the Committee was making decisions
related to the specific location of commercial lands within the Study area.
Monday, September 10, 2007 beginning at 7:00 P.M.
Collier County UF/IF AS Extension Education & Training Center located
at 14700 Immokalee Road, Naples, FL 34120, Collier County, Florida
Collier County Fire Districts presented a preliminary presentation of
various potential options for facilities and services in portions and/or the
entire east of CR951 study area.
At the September meeting, the independent fire districts, Big Island
Corkscrew and Golden Gate Fire Districts provided presentations to the
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Committee. The presentations centered upon the importance of locations
of existing and new stations, access issues, design standards of new roads,
and the manner in which the fire districts cooperate with each other for
mutual aid. The issue of merger and the provision of one district County-
wide system were discussed in great detail. The Committee was informed
about the coat estimates such an effort would entail, with a higher cost
within the first five years, but considerable savings in the remaining out
years. The Committee suggested that the fire districts should be included
within the early stages of roadway design and that this should be one of
the recommendations going to the BCC. The Committee concluded the
meeting by voting on the potential replacement candidates for the two
vacant spots on the Committee.
Monday, October 8, 2007 beginning at 7:00 P.M.
Collier County UF /IF AS Extension Education & Training Center located
at 14700 Immokalee Road, Naples, FL 34120, Collier County, Florida
Collier County Emergency Medical Services and Fire Districts presented,
for public discussion, various potential options for facilities and services
in portions and/or the entire east ofCR951 study area.
The October meeting was the third official public participation meeting
held by the Committee. Approximately 45 people attended the meeting
and the focus of the meeting was EMS and the fire districts. The
Committee Chairman provided an overview of the Horizon Study and
presentations were made by representatives of both EMS and the fire
districts. EMS stated that response times were 8 minutes in the urban area
and 12 minutes in the rural area. The distinctions between owned and
leased stations were discussed with the recognition that leased stations do
not contribute to the inventory which impact fees are based on. EMS
discussed why new stations were needed, as opposed to expanding
existing stations. Response times are reflective of distance and as
population growth increases in the east, new stations are needed to
accommodate this growth. The same issue was echoed for the fire
districts. Fire districts indicated that every station adheres to the National
Fire Protection Association standards. The Committee recommended that
EMS and the fire districts should be included within transportation
planning. The public discussion focused on the advantages and
disadvantages of an integrated county-wide fire and EMS system with
EMS and the fire districts offering positives and negatives regarding such
a merger. The two new members of the Committee, appointed by the
BCC were introduced to the Committee at the meeting.
Monday, December 10, 2007 beginning at 7:00 P.M.
Career & Services Center located at 750 S 5th St. Immokalee, FL 34142,
Collier County, Florida
Transportation staff provided the Committee a draft presentation
concerning long range road network improvements within the Study area.
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The December meeting, which focused upon transportation, was held at
the Immokalee Career and Service Center. Transportation provided an
overview of the three levels of service identified in the Preliminary Report
and the difference within the system expansion and costs associated with
each. The presentation stressed the importance of better co-ordination
between land use planning and transportation. The mixed-use
communities required by the Rural Land Stewardship Overlay is important
in reducing the impact upon the transportation system by breaking
existing, east to west transportation patterns during the morning peak
hours and west to east transportation patterns in the afternoon peak hours.
Concern was expressed over evacuation of rural residents due to
limitations of current network. It was pointed out that the low density
within the Study area did not make public transportation feasible.
Currently the public transportation system transports people from
Immokalee to the Naples and Marco Island areas. The Committee
Chairman informed the group that Collier County was a donor county in
regard to transportation, meaning the County pays into the system more
than it receives from the State. Lack of road improvements in the
Immokalee area were discussed against the many improvements that have
occurred in the western portion of the County. Transportation Division
staff indicated that long range plans for the State Road 29 expansion were
to take the traffic around the Immokalee urban core. A number of the
public expressed dissatisfaction with the idea of diverting traffic from the
Immokalee urban core, indicating that increased traffic in the urban core
would lead to increased commerce for the local economy. The importance
of the development of the Immokalee airport as a cargo and transportation
facility was stressed. The fact that impact fees would not be sufficient to
maintain the transportation network's current level of service was
addressed by the presenter.
Monday, December 18, 2007 beginning at 7:00 P.M.
Collier County UF/IF AS Extension Education & Training Center located
at 14700 Immokalee Road, Naples, FL 34120, Collier County, Florida
Chuck Mohlke discussed the survey and the approach for survey
distribution for Committee agreement. Additionally, Van-Buskirk and
Associates provided an update to the development of the Interactive
Growth Model, a modeling tool for various types of facilities and services
in portions and/or the entire east ofCR951 study area.
The second Horizon Study meeting in December centered upon a
presentation from Van Buskirk, Ryfell & Associates and the progress of
the Collier Interactive Growth Model. Discussion focused upon the
baseline data utilized by the model to develop the Build-Out for the Study
area. The baseline data consists of: Study encompassed 240 Traffic
Analysis Zones, Baseline Inventory of 70,000+ parcels, Validated
Preliminary Data: 28,246 single family homes, 31,535 multi-family units,
10,239,854 square footage of retail space, 3,711,352 square footage of
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office/services space, 2,788,897 feet of industrial space, 11 elementary
schools, 4 middle schools, 5 high schools. The Committee requested that
data from parcels west of CR951 be removed from material presented to
them at the next meeting to see a clearer picture of the Study area. The
consultant described how the model accounts for swings within the
economic cycle, and the implications to the rate of development by
providing for a time frame of 50 to 100 years, which allows for the pattern
of the economic cycle to ameliorate over such a lengthy time frame. Also
at the meeting the Committee provide input to the public consultant
regarding survey distribution strategy and specifics of survey questions.
The Committee approved the addition of a presentation concerning
Stormwater at the April 2008 Horizon Study meeting.
Monday, January 14, 2008 beginning at 7:00 P.M.
Collier County UF /IF AS Extension Education & Training Center located
at 14700 Immokalee Road, Naples, FL 34120, Collier County, Florida
Transportation staff provided the Public a presentation concerning the
long range road network improvements within the Study area.
January was the fourth "official" Public Participation meeting held by the
Committee and was centered upon Transportation. The presentation from
Transportation focused upon the three potential outlays provided for by
the Preliminary Study and the impacts of generators and attractors within
the field of transportation planning. Three basic types of roadways were
described showing the differences between a rural and an urban designed
roadway highlighted to allow for the public participants to make choices
as to what they felt was important to future roadway design in the Study
area. The public was lead through an exercise of allocating a limited
budget to design a hypothetical roadway, in order to determine what the
preferences of the group were. The general consensus of the attending
public was that functionality was more important than additional
amenities, with only the basic amenities for the rural setting and mid-range
amenities for the more urban settings of the Study area. A few preferences
were expressed by the attendees from the surveys returned at the public
participation meeting. These areas expressed as high priorities regarding
transportation infrastructure were: providing for traffic signals at major
intersections, adding lanes to improve road capacity and providing for
signs and travel advisories on lane closures. Landscaping medians and
street lighting were ranked as low priorities by the attending public.
Tuesday, February 12, 2008 beginning at 7:00 P.M.
Collier County UF /IF AS Extension Education & Training Center located
at 14700 Immokalee Road, Naples, FL 34120, Collier County, Florida
Collier County Public Schools staff presented a preliminary presentation
of various potential options for facilities and services in portions and/or
the entire east of CR951 study area.y
1-16
Summary:
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The first ofthe two Horizon Study meetings held in February focused on a
presentation to the Committee from the Collier County School District.
The presentation focused upon the methodology the District uses for
school planning with the five, ten and twenty-year plans updated on a
yearly basis to adjust for population growth. The difficulties of locating
schools within the Golden Gate Estates are related to land assembly and
access. Planning tools described by the presenter included tracking
population by utilizing TAZ's across the County and estimating the
number of students growing up in the grades through the Cohort Survival
Method. Coordination with other public facility providers, in addition to
developers, is critical to being able to "site" future schools. In response to
a Committee question, the presenter stated the School District has a good
rapport with the Parks Department and with the Sheriffs Department.
Additionally, there is contact with the County's Water Management
District, although the School District puts in its own wells and package
treatment plants at each school site. The School District has been working
with both the Fire Departments and the EMS Departments in regard to
future schools. A point was made that the developments in the Rural
Fringe and the Eastern Lands are required to provide acreage for future
school sites. A reoccurring question from the Committee and the public
centered on what the trigger was for the District to initiate the planning
and construction of a new school. It is when an existing school reached
80percent of capacity.
Tuesday, February 19, 2008 beginning at 7:00 P.M.
Collier County UF/IFAS Extension Education & Training Center located
at 14700 Immokalee Road, Naples, FL 34120, Collier County, Florida
The East of951 Infrastructure and Services Horizon Study Public
Participation Master Committee held a working meeting to discuss the end
survey and the development ofthe Collier County Interactive Growth
Model.
The second February Horizon Study meeting focused on an update to the
development of the Collier Interactive Growth Model (CIGM). The
consultant addressed the issues that were raised by the Committee during
the December 18, 2007 meeting and presented the baseline information for
the area exclusive to the east of CR951 area. The consultant stated they
had reworked the Model's computer program to develop two areas; the
first to incorporate market penetration, and the second to incorporate the
revisions which were requested by the Committee. Additionally,
commercial data was verified for the revised Model, as well as data for
fire stations, school, community parks, and industrial parks. The
Committee provided the consultant feedback concerning inaccuracies
within the baseline data according to their knowledge of the Study area.
The consultant stated sub-Models for commercial uses, schools, parks, and
fire stations will be developed from the build-out scenario to determine the
probable demand by the population for these facilities over time. The data
1-17
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output is in 5-year increments, and that the build-out is not a static Model
and can and will be changed as development and regulations evolve.
When questioned as to which area of t infrastructure build-out to target
first, the consultant stated the influence of the private sector will help to
rank the priorities and that infrastructure follows growth as closely as
possible. The object of the Model is to try to forecast the population and
demand as accurately as possible so that the infrastructure in place will
achieve maximum utilization. The Committee pointed out that all
infrastructure and service providing facilities should be more closely
examined to see if there are similarly located facilities providing the same
services; the County might not need to provide the same level of service
immediately. It could be an important consideration during this particular
penod of budgetary constraints.
Monday, March 10,2008 beginning at 7:00 P.M.
Collier County UF /IF AS Extension Education & Training Center located
at 14700 Immokalee Road, Naples, FL 34120, Collier County, Florida
School District staff provided the Public a presentation concerning the
long range school improvements within the Study area.
The March Horizon Study meeting was an "official" Public Participation
Meeting with a presentation from the School District. The public was
provided the seven goals for school planning; Build space for
students/programs - capacity; Coordinate with other departments; Update
schools on a systematic schedule to address changing educational program
needs; Provide funding for maintenance and renovation; Implement an
instructional technology plan for each school; Provide for the systematic
replacement of equipment and materials and Develop a fiscally
responsible long-range facilities plan. Additionally, the methodology
behind the Districts school population projections was described which
includes the Student Generation Multiplier and Cohort Survival Methods.
A question was asked concerning how students would be accommodated if
there were no room in a particular area, and if students would be bused to
another school. The presenter replied that if emollment does not exceed
capacity; the building of a high school in a particular area may be delayed.
If there is space available in an adjoining school, the students may be
placed at that school. The School Board decides how to balance the
District's school population. The majority of public questions included
specific locations and issues facing individual school sites. When a
question was asked about going vertical (with a second story) was a better
solution than having to build a new school, the District representative
stated a 2-story high school could go up to four stories and there is a
prototype for a two-story middle school, but it is not successful for
elementary schools because Kindergarten through second grade classes
cannot be located on a second floor level. A question was asked
concerning how land is selected for a new school and responded to by
]-]8
Time:
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stating a site feasibility study is performed. Other criteria examined
included: What schools need to be relieved; What is the relationship of
the proposed school to the existing community; What is the
environmental impact of developing the land; What is the transportation
network in the area - are sidewalks built or allowed? The presenter added
that the State would not allow a School District to release funds unless the
District could show that, at the time of opening, the proposed school
would be filled to 2/3 capacity. This policy is set up as a reactionary
response and that any change would have to come from the legislative
level.
Monday, April 14, 2008 beginning at 7:00 P.M.
Collier County UF/IF AS Extension Education & Training Center located
at 14700 Immokalee Road, Naples, FL 34120, Collier County, Florida
The Collier County Flood Plain Committee provided a presentation to the
Horizon Committee of the work to date regarding watershed planning
efforts and public awareness efforts.
The April meeting was the Horizon Study's final (6th) Public Participation
Meeting centered on Stormwater Management. The presenters for the
meeting were the Collier Flood Plain Committee and Collier County Soil
and Water District. The Flood Plain Committee provided a summary of
its work over the past 13 months of its public outreach program designed
to improve the FEMA flood zone rating for the County. One of the
primary goals of the Flood Plain Management Plan was to improve the
cost of flood insurance throughout the County and to assist in the safe
development of areas prone to flooding. The public was asked to provide
information related to flood issues near their homes to help complete the
Committee's understanding of all the issues within the County. The
presenter from the Collier Soil and Water District stated that water
management is one of the most difficult and complex problems for the
County and that a study to define the water shed issue is targeted for
completion in 20 I o. One of the goals of the study is to define a "water
shed" --- water quality and water quantity. Additionally, there is evidence
to suggest the wetlands in Collier County have shrunk by 40 to 50 percent,
and there can never be true "restoration" because the land can never go
back to the way it was ("base natural condition"). The Soil and Water
District is attempting to determine what the condition of the land was from
a given point in time in order to explore what future possibilities might be.
He stated that one of the missing components from Collier County's
planning is a specific Land Management Plan. The presenter concluded
by stating, The Soil and Water Conservation District is working to find a
solution to the problem of retaining water, and it will be achieved through
a combination of efforts with state and local agencies and by the
regulation of discharge/run-off water. The meeting concluded with a
discussion of the screening questionnaire and the Committee providing
direction for a May 12, 2008 mailing date for the questionnaire.
1-19
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Location:
Purpose:
Summary:
Time:
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Monday, May 12,2008 beginning at 7:00 P.M.
Collier County UF/IF AS Extension Education & Training Center located
at 14700 Immokalee Road, Naples, FL 34120, Collier County, Florida
The East of 951 Infrastructure and Services Horizon Study Public
Participation Master Committee held a working meeting to discuss the end
survey and the development of the Collier County Interactive Growth
Model.
The May meeting for the Horizon Study provided for presentation from
both consultants associated with the Study. The public research consultant
provided an update for the mailing of the preliminary survey, Monday
May 19, 2008. The Committee made a few modifications to specific
questions within the survey and noted that the survey is a method of
collecting information, and that it would not be a final determining factor
in the Committee's recommendations. The Committee voted unanimously
to move the June meeting out a week to allow for discussion of returned
surveys. The Collier Interactive Growth Model (CIGM) consultant
provided a final presentation on the baseline data and responded to the
final Committee questions and concerns related to the information. The
consultant indicated that the intention was to present the baseline data for
the build-out scenario at the July meeting and that the data would cover
what the build-out would be in terms of dwelling units and the square
footage of commerciallindustrial area, among other topics. There was
discussion concerning future potential credits generated within the Eastern
Lands and the effect that would have on the Build-Out scenario, related to
the number of credits allowed per acre for entitlement. County Staff
stated there were discrepancies between the 2005 Build-out Study and the
real time numbers generated from existing, approved projects. The
differences would be factored into the Growth Model.
Monday, June 16,2008 beginning at 7:00 P.M.
Collier County UF/IF AS Extension Education & Training Center located
at 14700 Immokalee Road, Naples, FL 34120, Collier County, Florida
The East of 951 Infrastructure and Services Horizon Study Public
Participation Master Committee held a working meeting to discuss the
results of the screening survey and the development of the second tier
survey.
The June meeting for the Horizon Study provided for a discussion of the
preliminary survey return response and direction as to the manner in
which the findings of that survey were to be presented at the July meeting.
The Committee arrived upon consensus to group the returned responses by
zip code to allow for geographical interpretation of the results.
Additionally, the Committee reviewed the individual position points
compiled by staff and eliminated and refined the points to move forward
for the final report. The Committee requested that the position points be
1-20
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Location:
Purpose:
Summary:
Time:
Location:
Purpose:
grouped by category, e.g. Transportation or EMS, and that the revised and
categorized list be sent to the Committee before the July meeting.
Monday, July 14, 2008 7:00 P.M.
Collier County UF /IF AS Extension Education & Training Center located
at 14700 Immokalee Road, Naples, FL 34120, Collier County, Florida
The East of 951 Infrastructure and Services Horizon Study Public
Participation Master Committee held a working meeting to discuss the
results of the screening survey and the development of the second tier
survey.
The July meeting for the Horizon Study provided for a discussion on the
manner in which the survey results are to be presented within the final
report. The Committee requested that the returned responses be shown
based upon zip code, showing the percentage of returned responses
compared against the total number of surveys sent. 2,150 surveys were
sent out, with 602 returned, for a 28 percent return rate. The discussion
covered the patterns of significant responses revealed by the survey.
Traffic signalization at major intersections received the highest level of
importance designation from the respondents, with turn lanes at major
road intersections the second highest issue to receive an important
designation. It should be noted that all of the top five issues of importance
were transportation related. The bottom five issues of importance related
to water. The next topic of discussion was the upcoming August meeting
where the Committee voted to have the meeting on the 18th of August and
the Committee voted to not allow any public presentations beyond the
standard 3 to 5 minute time limit. The final topic of discussion was the
build-out results of the Collier County Interactive Growth Model (CIGM).
The build-out results were distributed to the Committee and the consultant
pointed out that the number of projected units and population at build out
was significantly less that the 2005 Build-Out Study projected. The
difference at build out was 180,000 less people projected for the Study
area. The amount of square footage for commercial and industrial land
uses was discussed, with a recognition that the amount of commercial
square footage projected by the CIGM indicated that there would be a
shortage of commercial square footage to support the projected population
if the regulations existing today held steady. The final component of the
CIGM discussion centered upon how the model determines market area
for the various commercial categories, e.g. neighborhood, regional,
commercial ect. . . .
Wednesday, September 3, 2008 7:00 P.M.
Collier County UF/IF AS Extension Education & Training Center located
at 14700 Immokalee Road, Naples, FL 34120, Collier County, Florida
The East of 951 Infrastructure and Services Horizon Study Public
Participation Master Committee held a working meeting to discuss the
1-21
Summary:
Time:
Location:
Purpose:
Summary:
results of the screening survey and hear a presentation on the Golden Gate
Estates Bridge Study.
The September 3rd meeting for the Horizon study provided for a brief
presentation of the survey results tabulated in a table format with further
sub-groupings by zip code and demographics. The Public Participation
Consultant indicated that the results would be further refined with a
narrative provided for the Horizon Study's meeting held on September 8th.
Following the survey results, Transportation Planning provided a
summary of the Estates Bridge Study to the Committee. As indicated the
specifics of that particular study are provided for in a latter portion of this
report. The Committee motioned to include the Bridge Study as part of
the Final report to the BCC. Following the Bridge Study, the Committee
heard a presentation from Dr. Sparks Lunney, Director, S.W. Florida
Operations National Multiple Sclerosis Society. The presentation centered
upon the increased health risks associated with increased air pollution
related to increased automobile usage. The presentation was included to
provide for the potential consequences of the completion of the bridge
work contained in the Bridge Study. A copy of the paper (appendix C)
presented to the Committee was unanimously approved to be included as
part the Final Report at the meeting. After the presentation from Doctor
Lunney, the Committee heard a presentation from Dennis Vasey of the
Collier Soil and Water Conservation District. Mr. Vasey provided an
overview and responded to questions regarding a letter sent from Soil and
Water to the Horizon Study Committee urging the Committee to support
the District's position advocating a county-wide surface water
management plan that could augment the watershed management plan
tentatively scheduled for 2009. The Committee by a vote of 10 to 1
agreed to include the letter from Soil and Water to the Committee as part
of the Final Report to the BCC. The Committee as a last order of
business, by a vote of 9 to 1 with one member abstaining, decided to stay
on schedule with the September 29th presentation to the BCC. The
Committee, by unanimous vote, added on additional meeting the week of
September 22nd through the 26th to hear the presentation Chairman
McDaniel will provide to the BCC at the September 29th Horizon Study
workshop.
Monday, September 8, 20087:00 P.M.
Collier County UF/IFAS Extension Education & Training Center located
at 14700 Immokalee Road, Naples, FL 34120, Collier County, Florida
The East of 951 Infrastructure and Services Horizon Study Public
Participation Master Committee held a wrap-up meeting to discuss the
final presentation to the Board of County Commissioners scheduled for
the 29th of September.
The September 8th meeting for the Horizon study provided for a final
presentation from the public research consultant to provide the final
narratives and tables associated with the return survey responses. The
1-22
Committee voted unanimously to include the table narratives with the
report going to the BDD at the 29th of September. The Committee also
unanimously voted to have the consultant provide more descriptive
narratives to the tables in the final public research report, which will be an
attachment to the Horizon Study final report. The second and final agenda
item centered upon the Committee's approval of the Position Points
contained at this section of the Horizon Report. Each of the position
points were reviewed and approved as presented or as amended by the
Committee. The final action taken by the Committee was for a fmal,
"unofficial" meting to be held at the agricultural Extension Center on the
23rd of September to allow for the Committee Chairman to give the
presentation for the September meeting with the BCC to all Horizon Study
Committee members interested.
Screenine: Survev
At the conclusion of the Public Participation meetings the Horizon Study Committee,
through the public research consultant sent out 2,150 surveys to a sample of the Study
area asking questions on infrastructure and services preferences and opinions. The map
on the following page displays the distribution of the sample survey and the return rate
for each of the voting precincts which comprise the study area. Following the map are
tables of the returned survey and descriptive narrative of the information contained with
those tables. The results of the returned surveys provided a portion of the basis and
justification for the position points the Committee is providing to the BCC for their
consideration. The distributed survey has been provided as Exhibit "D" within this report.
Following the tables and narrative are the position points approved by the Master
Committee which represent the areas of concern and opportunity voiced by the general
public through the series of public meetings and distributed surveys.
1-23
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1-24
Introduction
The draft tables provided in this report of preliminary findings are based on the
written responses of 598 persons living in zip codes defined as the Golden Gates Estates,
from Immokalee directly south to Everglades City, Copeland, and Chokoloskee areas.
The survey "COLLIER COUNTY WANTS YOUR OPINION" was sent to 2,150
persons, achieving an above-average response rate of28 percent.
Regarding the zip code divisions on the table: to minimize confusion, Fraser &
Mohlke Associates (F&M) has grouped zip codes that are in geographical proximity and
have fewer responders. They are 34142 and 34143, the Immokalee area, and 34135 and
through 34139, Everglades City and surrounding areas to the southeast.
Each table is a summary of the answers to each of the questions in the survey.
Tables demonstrate the actual number of responses from each of the zip codes or zip code
groups and the percentage those actual numbers are of the total'. Tables also show the
number of "No Answers" to each question
A "base" table is included for each of the questions. For example, concerning
statements 1 and 2, under "A. DRIVING ON COUNTY ROADS", the responses to
statement 1. "Please tell us about how you got from your home to where you work and
shop during the last 30 days", show the actual number of responses concerning driving
and riding habits, and the percentage of that number to the whole.
Below are the responses to the statements concerning the importance of specific
entities associated with driving or riding on roads, such as the importance of traffic sig-
nals and street lighting. These responses are shown according to the degree of impor-
tance from 1 to 10 with 10 being the most important.
For example 419 responders, or 70 percent said that traffic signals at major inter-
sections were of MOST importance while four responders said they were LEAST impor-
tant as one reads down and across the table. In the case of emergency medical services
and law enforcement statements, responders were asked as well to circle a number from 1
to lOon a scale of poor to excellent.
The base table is then shown with subsets demonstrating the median score of each
zip code area representing the degree of importance.
1-25
These tables include cross-tabulation of respondent characteristics as shown on
the left hand side of the table. For example, they include age cohort, persons per house-
hold, and whether the household includes persons younger than 18 years of age. Subsets
also include cross-referencing by type and tenure of residence and by the major roadways
within the Horizon Study area, If a base table question has been answered without ambi-
guity, a positive response indicated by all zip codes, then a subset table was not included.
Above the body of each of the subset tables, each representing a single question,
is the overall median for 598 responses. This median is noted as well under each of the
statements in the survey. The median score for each of the zip code areas can be com-
pared to the overall median score. Comparisons show the degree of importance ex-
pressed by responders to each question in each of the zip code areas.
For example, under the base table concerning driving on County Roads is a ques-
tion concerning the importance of street lighting along the roads the responder travels
regularly and a cross-reference table of age cohorts; a total of 158 responders were in the
age cohort of 55 to 64 years. The overall mean expressed under the statement is 8.00. Of
this age 55 to 64 years cohort, the total mean is 7.5, just below the mean for 598. Those
in zip codes 34242 and 34143 and "Other" expressed a mean of 7, and those in zip codes
34135 through 34139 expressed a mean of 6. The other zip codes reflect the total mean-
8.00. Those zip codes mentioned above, brought the mean down one half a point.
Responders were also asked pertinent demographic questions in order to under-
score the range of survey respondents by gender, type of residence, tenure of residence,
household size, and whether family members were over or under the age of 18.
/
1-26
Question A. Base Table for Questions 1. and 2.
Of the 598 responders, 545, or 91 percent, drive their own vehicle to work and to
shop. Another 38 persons of those surveyed, or 6 percent, are driven by a family mem-
ber, friend or neighbor. Eleven, or 2 percent, don't drive. Another 8, or 1 percent, ride a
bike. Seven walk or ride a bus.
Of the nine statements in this group, the following analysis is ordered according
to the statement receiving the highest number of ratings of 10, rated the most important
by responders arranged, and the statements receiving the fewest number of the highest
rating of lain descending order. Added to this is a description of the numbers of re-
sponders and percent of responders giving each statement a rating of 6 to 10, on the "Im-
P?rtant" side of the scale. All question received a 50 percent or more rating by those who
rated them at 6 or above, except landscaped medians.
Of the 598 responders, 419, or 70 percent, rated "Traffic signals at major inter-
sections" as ala, indicating that they believed this statement is the most important of the
statements concerning driving on County roads. Those rating this statement at 6 or above
on the scale of importance were 559 responders, or 93 percent, a clear "mandate" to
provide and maintain major intersection traffic signals.
Of the 598, "Right and left turn lanes at major road intersections" received the
second highest most important rating by 381, or 64 percent, of the responders. However,
when those responses from 6 to 10 and over are taken into account, 590 or 95 percent
indicated that turn lanes at major road intersections were ofhigh importance.
"Adding lanes to improve road capacity" was third highest in the scale of impor-
tance, with 250 of the 598, or 42 percent of the responders, indicating this as a 10 as most
important. Those rating it at 6 or above were 508, or 85 percent, ofthe responders.
Of the 598 responders, 229, or 38 percent, rated "Street lighting near schools" as a
10 or most important. This statement received the fourth highest. Those rating this
statement at 6 or above were 476, or 80 percent, of the responders.
1-27
Fifth highest in the scale of importance was the statement "Street lighting along
the roads I travel regularly" with 214, or 36 percent, rating this as 10 on the scale. When
those giving this statement a comparatively positive rating at 6 or above are taken into
account, the total is 428, or 72 percent, of the responders.
Of the 598 responders, a total of 153, or 26 percent, rated "Bicycle and pedestrian
lanes on major roads" as the sixth highest on the scale with a rating of 10 or most impor-
tant. Those rating this statement at 6 or above were 355, or 59 percent ofthe responders.
The seventh highest was "Public bus transportation" with 152 or 25 percent rat-
ing it a lOon the importance scale. Adding those rating it at 6 or above, the total is 358,
or 60 percent.
"Bicycle and pedestrian lanes on local roads" was rated as a 10 by 149 respond-
ers, or 25 percent, the eighth highest with a rating of 10. But those giving it a rating of 6
or above were 332 responders, or 56 percent.
Lowest rated in this group is "Landscaped medians" with 63 or 11 percent of re-
sponders rating it as a lOon the scale of importance. Those rating it as a 6 or above were
269 responders, or 45 percent. This is the only question in this group that received a less
than 50 percent favorable rating overall.
Within this group of statements are subsets of tables that cross reference the
statement by the responder's age, and the ages of family members. The subsets also in-
clude these same questions analyzed by roads driven regularly and type and tenure of
residence.
Question B. Base Table for Questions 1. and 2.
According to base table B, of the 598 responders, a total of 325 households, or 54
percent, have a well on their property that provides drinking water for their homes. An-
other 313 households, or 52 percent, have a septic tank on their property providing
wastewater disposal for their homes. Twenty-one percent of the 125 responders live in a
development that provides water and sewer services. Another 48, or 8 percent, get water
from a special district. Fourteen percent, or 82 respondents, get water. from Collier
County. Another 1 ~8, or 20 percent, pay a fee for water and sewer services, and 10 or 2
percent don't know who provides water and sewer for their household.
1-28
Of 598 responders 171 or 29 percent indicated by circling a 10 on the scale of 1 to
10 that "A new potable water system is desirable in order to provide quality drinking
water to residents living east of County Road 951 /Collier Boulevard" as most important.
When considering those responders who circled a 6 or above, the number is 379 or 47
percent who believe a new potable-water .system is important. Of the total, 21 or 4 per-
cent did not circle any number and are recorded as "No Answers".
Those who circled 10, most imp0l1ant for the statement, "A new wastewater
treatment system is desirable to provi,de a safe and sanitary method for collection and
treating sewage created east of County 9511Collier Boulevard" were fewer than the first
question, 158 or 26 percent. Those who circled 6 or above were slightly fewer than the
previous question, 270, or 45 percent of the responders.
Question C. Base Table for Questions 1. and 2.
Question C. concerns parks and recreation. In answer to the first statement, 293
responders, or 49 percent, indicated that they themselves or someone in the family had
used available recreation facilities at one or more County parks. Of the 598, 357 of the
total, or 60 percent, indicated that a County park is within five miles of their residence.
Considering the scale questions, when asked about the importance of County
parks providing quality and adequate facilities for family use, 180 responders, or 30 per-
cent, indicated it was most important. Those persons who circled a 6 or above were 394
responders, or 63 percent of the total.
The second question concerning the need for new County parks with additional
recreational opportunities east of County Road 951/Collier Boulevard received the sec-
ond highest number of "1 Os", 139 responders circled 10, or 21 percent. However, those
circling 6 or above were 292 responders, or 48 percent. Five percent, or 28 responders,
had no answer regarding County park needs east of County Road 9511Collier Boulevard.
1-29
.-- ~,-- .. .....""...-...'--"._"."-,~"
When asked if park facilities near their homes will meet their needs for at least the
next 10 years, a total of 128 responders, or 21 percent, said this was most important to
them. Of the total 41, or 7 percent, had no answer. Those who circled a 6 or above were
326 responders, or 55 percent, who were in basic agreement that park facilities near their
homes will meet their needs for at least the next 10 years.
Question D. Base Table for Questions 1. and 2.
Regarding County Libraries, 392 responders or two-thirds said they or a family
member had visited a library during the last year. In answer to a library being 5 miles or
less from their homes, 284, or 47 percent, checked "Yes".
Concerning the scale questions, a library located convenient to their neighbor-
hood, received the highest number of "I Os", 197 or one-third of the responders. When
considering those who circled 6 or above, that number was 393, or 62 percent.
The second question regarding libraries nearby meeting family needs for the next
1 0 years: 171, or 29 percent, circled 1 0, as most important. Those who circled 6 or
above included 393 responders, or 62 percent, almost two-thirds feeling that enough li-
braries exist now to meet a I O-year need. Six percent, or 34 responders, had no answer.
The third question regarding libraries serving the needs of families east of County
Road 951 had the smallest number circling 10, 273 responders, or 46 percent. Again, 6
percent, or 35 responders, did not answer.
Question E. Base Table for Questions 1. and 2.
When asked about their use of public schools for community meetings or other
recreational activities during the past year, 241 responders, or 40 percent, said they or a
family member had attended a meeting or some other activity at a public school.
Considering the number of those having a family member attending a Collier
County public school for at least one year totaled 219 responders, or 37 percent, answer-
ing "Yes".
1-30
Of the three questions in this group, providing bike paths and sidewalks close to
school locations received the most circled "IDs", numbering 226 responders, or 38 per-
cent. The number of those who circled 6 and above were 407 or 68 percent, a significant
indication that responders think bike paths and sidewalks close to schools are very im-
portant. Nine percent, or 53 responders, circled "No Answer ".
Second in this group is the statement that schools are located convenient to the
"neighborhood I live in", with 176 responders, or 29 percent, circling 1 0 as most impor-
tant and 324, or 54 percent, circling 6 of above. Eight percent, or 48 responders, did not
answer.
Concerning the use of schools to support community activities and events, 169 or
28 percent circled 10. Of the 598 persons answering the questionnaire, a total of 362 re-
sponders, or 61 percent, circled 6 or above. Another 38, or 6 percent, did not answer.
Question F Base Table for Questions 1. and 2.
When asked about emergency medical services, 242 responders, or 40 percent,
said they have called Collier EMS for a medical emergency, while 295 or 49 percent had
never called for help. Consequently, because so many had no direct experience with
EMS, 287 responders, or 48 percent, had no answer to whether or not EMS provides high
quality medical treatment to injured person, while 164, or 27 percent, circled 10 as most
important. Those circling 6 or above on a scale of "Poor" (1) to "Excellent" (10) were
303, or 51 percent. lIthe "no answer" responses are taken out, the number of those an-
swering this question is 311, and those circling 6 or above, is 303, or 97 percent.
Of the 598, 278 responders, or 46 percent, had no answer to the statement that
EMS responds quickly and efficiently when called, while 158 or 26 percent circled 10.
Those circling 6, on a scale of "Poor" (1), to "Excellent" (10) and above were 308, or 52
percent. If the 278 who didn't answer the question are taken out, then the percent satis-
fied, having circled 6 and above, 158, is 96 percent. The great majority of those with
some experience with EMS, then, are satisfied with response time and quality of treat-
ment.
1-31
Question G Base Table for Questions 1. and 2.
When asked to rate the performance of the Collier County Sheriff's Office in re-
sponding to calls for service "in your neighborhood" from Poor to Excellent, 82 respond-
ers, or 14 percent, had no answer while 156 or 26 percent circled 10. Those circling 6 or
above numbered 418 or 70 percent of the 598 total. If those who had no answer are not
included, 81 percent indicated satisfaction with the Sheriff's Office by circling 6 or above
on a Poor/Excellent scale of 1 to 10.
Those who did not answer that statement "Investigating suspicious activity in
your neighborhood" were 93 or 16 percent. Those who rated this question as a 10 num-
bered 136 or 23 percent. Those who rated it on the Poor to Excellent scale as a 6 or
above were 384 or 64 percent. When those who had no answer are not included, those
circling 6 or above are 76 percent. Responders who answered these two questions ap-
pear to be quite satisfied with law enforcement and investigations, 81 percent and 76
percent respectively.
Question H Base Table for Questions 1. and 2.
Of the 598 responders, 97, or 16 percent, have called a local Fire District because
of an emergency while 423, or 71 percent, have not.
When asked how important it is to locate a Fire Station in conjunction with other
emergency agencies including EMS and law enforcement, 285 responders, or 48 percent,
circled 10 as most important. Totaling up those who circled 6 or above on the scale, the
number is 489, or 82 percent, indicating a general agreement that consolidation of first
responder services would be important. The "No Answers" were 43 or 7 percent.
The statement "Bridging over canals and linking dead-end roads near where I live
are needed to improve response times for fire districts, EMS, and law enforcement" was
circled as most important by 186 or 31 percent of the responders. Fifty-nine respondents,
or 10 percent, did not answer. Those who circled 6 or above on the importance scale
were 319 individuals constituting 53 percent or a majority of responders. Another 195 04
33 percent or one-third circled 1 through 4 on the scale of importance, indicating they did
not feel bridging canals in the area was all that necessary to improve response time.
1-32
Question I Base Table for Questions 1. and 2.
When asked about personal experiences with flood control, 107 responders, or 18
percent, said they have had flooding on their property during the past five years. Another
5 responders, or nearly 1 percent, said floodwater had entered their homes within the past
five years. Another 66 responders, or 11 percent, said flooding makes it difficult to drive
on the streets near their residence. Another 9 responders, or 2 percent, said flooding on
their property had obstructed their wastewater septic system. Eleven, or 2 percent, said
flooding had caused problems for their water-well system. But 453 responders, or 76
percent, said they don't have serious flooding problem on their property.
Of 598, 103 responders, or 17 percent, agreed that it was most important by cir-
cling 10, that flooding should be reduced on the roads they travel regularly. Those who
circled 6 or above were 249 responders or 42 percent. Those who thought this was not
important, circling 1, 2, 3, or 4 were 222 or 37 percent. Those who did not answer were
67, or 11 percent.
When asked if drainage ditches on their property should be widened to control
flooding, 68 or 11 percent circled 10 as most important. Those circling 6 or above in im-
portance were 166 or 41 percent. "No Answers" were 78 responders, or 13 percent.
Those answering on the "Not Important" range of 1,2,3, or 4 were 296 or 49 percent.
Just 70 responders, or 12 percent, felt it was most important by circling 10, to in-
stall new drainage culverts at intersections near their property. Those who circled 6 or
above were 196 or 33 percent or one-third of the responders. The number of those who
did not feel installing culverts was so important, circling 1, 2, 3, or 4, were 248, or 41
percent. Those who did not circle any number, or provided a "No Answer" were 88 or 15
percent.
Responders were asked to check how often they drove certain roads in their areas.
East/West Roads included, Immokalee, Oil Well, Randall Boulevard, and Golden Gate
Boulevard. Of the responders 157 or 26 percent indicated that they traveled lmrriokalee
Road every day to go to work or to shop; 275 or 46 percent indicated "Any Day" or spo-
radic travel along Immokalee Road, and 55 or 9 percent said they never used lmmokalee
Road. Nineteen percent did not respond.
1-33
Regarding Oil Well Road, 54, or 9 percent, indicated they used it everyday, while
158 or 26 percent used this road sporadically to go to work or to go shopping, and 190 or
32 percent indicated they never traveled this road. One-third, or 196 individuals, did not
respond.
Randall Boulevard had the fewest "Every Day" travelers, 53, or 9 percent, with
109, or 18 percent, using it sporadically and 218, or 36 percent, never traveling this road
for work or shopping. Those who did not respond were 218 individuals, or 36 percent
Golden Gate Boulevard had the most "Every Day" travelers of this east/west
group of roads, 179 or 28 percent indicating that they travel it every day for work or
shopping. Another 225 or 38 percent use it sporadically, and 62 responders or 10 percent
never use Golden Gate Boulevard. Of the 598, 141, or 24 percent, did not respond.
The North/South Roads queried about were County Road 951/Collier Boulevard,
Wilson Boulevard, Everglades Boulevard, and Desoto Boulevard. County Road 951 had
by far had the most "Every Day" travelers, 334 or 56 percent of the responders. Spo-
radic travelers on this road were 194 or 32 percent, and 12 or a mere 2 percent indicated
they never traveled County Road 951. Those who did not provide a response were 58
individuals, or 10 percent
Regarding Wilson Boulevard, 50 responders, or 8 percent, indicated they use it
every day, while 190 responders, or 32 percent, use it sporadically. But 165 responders,
or 28 percent, checked "Never". Those who gave no answer were 193, or 32 percent
Everglades Boulevard is traveled every day by 60 responders, or 10 percent, while
134, or 22 percent, of the responders use it sporadically. However 209 or 35 percent
never travel on Everglades Boulevard. Those not answering were 195, or 33 percent
Desoto Boulevard is the least used among these north/south roads, with 25 re-
sponders, or 4 percent, using it very day; 66, or 11 percent, using it sporadically; and 278,
or 46, percent, never using it Desoto also had the most "No Answers", 228 or 38 per-
cent
Demographic Information
Of the 598 responders, 33 persons, or 6 percent, did not indicate their gender. A
total of 288 responders, or 48 percent, were female, and 277, or 46 percent, were male.
1-34
In regard to the type of residence they live in: 57 responders, or 10 percent, did
not indicate their type of residence. Another 44, or 7 percent, live in condominiums; 40,
or 7 percent live in mobile homes; 7, or 1 percent, live in rental apartments; and 450 or
75 percent live in single-family homes.
Regarding tenure of residence, 55 responders gave no answer; 42, or 7 percent,
have lived in their residence since before 1986, another 49, or 8 percent, moved to their
residence between 1986 and 1990; 63, or 11 percent, moved to their residence between
1991 and 1995; 112 responders or 19 percent moved to their present residence between
1996 and 2000; another 190 or 32 percent moved to their present residence between
2001 and 2003; and 87 or 15 percent moved to their present residence between 2006 and
2008. A little over 65 percent of the survey responders are relatively new, either to the
surveyed areas, to a new home within the survey area or even to Collier County as a
whole.2 were 24 years of younger; 25, or 4 percent, were 25 to 34 years of age; 77, or 13
percent, were 35 to 44 years of age; 13, or 19 percent, were 45 to 54 years; 160 or 27
percent were 55 to 64 years; and 188 or 31 percent were 65 or older
Of household size and ages, 36 responders, or 6 percent, provided no answer; 117,
or 20 percent, indicated that one person over 18 lived in his or her residence; 325 or 54
percent were 2 person households over the age of 18; 80, or 13 percent, were three per-
son households over the age of 18; and 40, or 7 percent, were four person households
over the age of 18. Another 55 responders or 9 percent provided no answer.
Of households with family members under 18: 469 or 78 percent had no one un-
der 18 years of age; 59, or 10 percent, had one household member under 18; 50, or 8 per-
cent, had two persons over 18; 14, or 2 percent, had three members under 18; and 6, or 1
percent, had 4 household members under the age of 18.
1-35
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Position Points Master Committee
After taking into consideration the individual public participation meetings and the
survey responses, the Master Committee has arrived at specific position points in
relations to the components of the Horizon Study. Below are the Master Committee's
position points, which again, are based upon the two year conversation the Committee
conducted with the general public of the Study area through public participation meetings
and distributed surveys.
Water
The overwhelming majority of the public are not interested in the extension of water
and/or waste-water to Estates, whether inside or outside of the current district boundary.
The general public has expressed concerns over the long and short term effects of South
Estates/Everglades re-hydration and restoration, on the Estates and other rural areas, both
in terms of flooding and the effects on other natural systems. Based upon this concern,
the County should consider a study by an independent hydro-geologist.
The general public has expressed concerns over the long term effect of the build-out
population and other growth factors on wells and potable water availability in the East of
CR951 study area. Based upon this concern, the County should consider coordinating a
study with the local and State agencies and an independent hydro-geologist to examine
the issue of long term potable water sustainability.
Transportation
Bridges in the estates are a necessity to promote the transportation network and multiple
bridge locations are necessary to not burden anyone location. This idea was part of the
GGE Restudy Report in 2003 and is supported by the Horizon Study Committee.
For arterial and collector roads east of CR951, landscaping at the time of construction is
not a priority. Functionality is the most important factor within roadway design with
only basic amenities. Sidewalks are not considered essential and lighting should be
confined to major road intersections, county parks and schools.
Existing and future arterial and collector roads should have multiple use paths. Bike and
pedestrian lanes on roads are not the public preference.
1-84
Future road design standards need to take into consideration the semi-rural character of
the Estates. For future roads in the Rural Lands Stewardship Area (RLSA) the rural cross
section design should be the first option considered.
The promotion of commercial and industrial land uses in the study area, which assist in
altering the current transportation modal splits are necessary to reduce traffic congestion
and trip lengths.
The public has expressed a need for more consideration of emergency evacuation routes
in future roadway planning.
Fire
The County should explore the feasibility of placing fire hydrants along existing raw
water main lines within the Study area as a potential means of fire suppression.
The public has expressed that the County exploring the feasibility of a fire suppression
system only in the Estates with research into well-fed draw type hydrants in-lieu of an
expensive loop system
The Fire Districts should be included as a required part of an initial design review
committee concerning construction of roads and new home developments. This would
allow the Fire Districts to voice their concerns about design plans that do not provide
adequate access for fire equipment and to suggest possible solutions before construction
begins.
Emen!encv Medical
EMS LOS is best if it is a combination of the level 2 and level 3 options identified within
the Preliminary Study, which called for a varied distribution of owned and co-located
stations.
Parks
The public during the public participation meetings has expressed that neighborhood
parks are incompatible with the semi-rural character of the Estates. Based upon the
conclusion of neighborhood park incompatibility, the public has expressed a desire for
larger Community Parks. The provision of the Level Three option identified within the
Preliminary Report is desired for the Study area. Level Three provides for an urbanized
level of service for parks for the Study area. It should be noted that the survey results
expressed only limited support for new park facilities.
General
The public has expressed an interest for the County to explore the potential for
consolidation of the Independent Fire Districts and Collier County's Emergency Medical
Services.
1-85
Every effort to increase communication between divisions and departments within the
County should be explored, as well as communication among the Counties throughout
the region. An emphasis on better coordinated transportation planning is necessary, with
cooperation from all other local, state and federal governmental throughout the region.
The Committee would like to stress the need for continuous communication among the
County, its departments and the large land owners within the RLSA Study area to ensure
resources align with infrastructure timing and needs. The need for continuous
communication also applies to the master planning efforts for the Sub-Elements (Golden
Gate, Rural Fringe, Immokalee, ect.) of the GMP which comprises the Study area.
The Committee recognizes the importance of the development of the Immokalee Airport
as a regional transportation asset and supports all efforts to further the airport's
development.
Maintaining the semi-rural character of the Estates is important.
The Committee recognizes the value of the Inter-Active Growth model as an additional
planning tool to help guide the County's future capital infrastructure decisions, but
cautions that the Growth model is designed to be used on a regional basis and not a site
specific basis.
The Committee, with the recognition of the importance of the issues identified by the
general public during the Public Participation process, would encourage the Board of
County Commissioners to consider appointing a 3 to 5 member oversight committee to
ensure the issues identified are acted upon. In addition to carrying forward the issues and
concerns identified by the Horizon Study, the oversight committee could oversee the
integration of the Inter-Active Growth Model and its maintenance.
The Committee with the recognition of the importance of the issues identified by the
general public during the Public Participation process would also encourage the Board of
County Commissioners to consider appointing a site specific committee to explore
through public meetings the specific locations for future land use changes (new
commercial locations in the Study Area) and infrastructure improvements.
Final Conclusion of the Public Participation Phase
As evidenced by the current economic and housing market conditions, the demand for
housing for any given location will fluctuate over time. At the onset of the Study, the
demand for growth was exceeding the County's service and infrastructure provider's
ability to keep up with the demanded improvements. Over the last twelve months, those
conditions have waned considerably, and based upon the County's reduced demand for
Capital Infrastructure and Services, the benefit from this long range planning effort
1-86
would appear to provide the County with a longer period of time to react to growth
related demands. Based upon the lack of new capital improvement projects contained
within this year's Annual Update and Inventory Report (AUIR), it would appear that the
above conclusion will be validated.
While the immediacy for new capital expansions has lessened, the benefits provided for
within this four year long planning effort remain. Southwest Florida, with its subtropical
climate, abundance of natural and man-made amenities and accessibility to national as
well as international future residents, stands as a unique market. While the growth rates
associated with most locations throughout this Country traditionally hold steady at a
somewhat predictable level, the Southwest Florida market appears to be subject to a
much more volatile cycle of expansion. Based upon the 2008 Bureau of Economic and
Business Research (BEBR) population estimates, between 2000 and 2006, Collier
County's population increased from 257,926 to 330,258 persons. This represents a 28
percent increase over a seven year period, or broken down annually to a 4 percent growth
rate. This rapid run-up is a direct contributor to the current market conditions, but should
also serve as a reminder as to the attractiveness of this location to individuals throughout
the world as a potential site for a second home or a new place to call home.
The Comprehensive Planning department, as well as the University of Florida Bureau of
Economic and Business Research is of the belief that as the micro and macro economic
conditions follow their natural cycles, the demand for new residential units throughout
the County will continue during the next upturn in the national economic cycle. When
these conditions do begin to materialize, due to the comprehensive nature of the East of
CR951 Infrastructure and Services Horizon Study, the county will be much better
equipped to align those services and infrastructure improvements with the demand of new
residents and business.
The Study has mandated that each of the County's infrastructure and service providers
examine the long term needs of their particular organization, identify the potential
obstacles to providing for those long term needs, and initiated the process of identifying
solutions to these barriers. These providers had done this at first within Phase I of the
Study as isolated units, but as the second phase of the Study materialized, those providers
began to engage the other infrastructure and service providers to identify necessary
collaborative efforts and opportunities. However, that collaboration was only an initial
step in the Phase II process.
Through the public participation phase of the Study, the identified potential collaborative
efforts were expanded to include the residents of the east of CR951 area. Public
Participation is necessary to better understand how the general public viewed priorities
within capital improvements and services provided for by the County. Additionally,
through representation on the Horizon Study Master Committee, the interests of the large
land holders and the development community were well represented and those interest
groups were also engaged in the questions of priorities for the future built environment.
It is this discussion with all aspects of the Community that will stand as the greatest
beneficial contribution of the Horizon Study.
1-87
The overriding message provided for by the Horizon Study is the continued need of, not
only general purpose county government, but all sections (Constitutional Officers,
Independent Fire Districts, large land owners, civic associates, eet.) within the Collier
County social and economic strata, to continuously engage in the conversation of what
each group would like to see the County become and identify the common grounds. It is
through this type of engaged communication that Collier County may attain the
sustainable future that the Horizon Study is seeking.
1-88
Co~:t: Qaunty
- --
Transportation Services Division
EAST OF 951 HORIZON STUDY
FOR BRIDGES
AUGUST 2008
-
2-1
'''''_.11I" .. _,.."_._"."M
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. East of 951 "Build-Out" Horizon Study Purpose Page 2
2. Evaluation and Selection Process Page 3
3. Public Involvement Plan (PIP) Page 7
4. Cost analysis Page 8
5. Final Rankings Page 9
-.
6. Recommendations Page 10
7. Appendix A-Bridge Map Page 11
8. Appendix B-Aerials of Bridges Page 12
9. Appendix C- Ranking Matrices Page 13
10.Appendix D-Public Comments Page 14
11.Appendix E- Public Information Plan Page 15
12.Appendix F- Cost Analysis Memorandum Page 16
East of CR 951 Bridge Report
Page 1
,., ,.,
East of 951 "Build-Out" Horizon Study
Bridge Component
Purpose
The East of County Road 951 Infrastructure and Services Horizon Study is a project
that identifies three levels of service options for public infrastructure and service outlays
for the area east of CR 951. These areas include public utilities, schools, parks, law
enforcement, emergency services, fire, libraries, stonn water management and
transportation.
Of the services and infrastructure discussed, transportation and public utilities are the
keystone elements. The locations of other services and institutions such as emergency
and fire services, schools, parks and libraries depend heavily on locations of roads,
potable water and wastewater lines. Decisions on capital infrastructure and service
provisions cannot be made in a vacuum, and an intensive public paI!icipation program
for the area east of CR 951 has provided a vision from property owners, residents, and
other affected parties regarding identified infrastructure and public services needs.
Through this process, the need for additional connectivity in the Estates was discussed
and a recommendation was made that Transportation Services should work with other
agencies to identify opportunities where additional connectivity could serve multiple
purposes and agencies consistent with Objective 6.3 of the Golden Gate Area Master
Plan approved as part of the Growth Management Plan which states:
"In planning and constructing road improvements within Golden Gate
Estates and Golden Gate City, Collier County shall coordinate with local
emergency services officials to ensure that the access needs of fire
department, police and emergency management personnel and vehicles
are met.>>
The Transportation Division's 5 year work program already identifies the need for bridge
maintenance and contemplates new bridge construction. The Metropolitan Planning
Organization's Long Range Transportation Plan update will include the infonnation
collected from this study and the priorities adopted by the Board of County
Commissioners (BCC). The purpose of this bridge study is to identify, evaluate and
prioritize new bridge locations that address emergency response time, mobility, service
efficiency and public sentiment east of CR 951.
East of CR 951 Bridge Report
Page 2
2-3
Evaluation and Selection Process
The study included several key steps:
· Transportation staff identified potential new bridge connections from the existing
roadway grid east of County Road 951 that was severed due to the canal
system.
o One approved bridge and seven possible locations for new bridges and
three study areas were identified. A map was created depicting these
bridges and study areas. It is important to note that Bridge 1 was shown
as an approved bridge location as per the Growth Management Plan
Golden Gate Area Master Plan and is not included in the ranking matrices.
· Staff contacted key stakeholders, including the public that would benefit from the
-
connectivity and mobility provided by new bridges.
o The stakeholders included: Big Corkscrew Island Fire Control and Rescue
District (BCIFD), Collier County Emergency Management Services (EMS),
Golden Gate Fire Rescue District (GGFD), Parks, Forestry Service, The
Conservancy and Audubon Society, Public Utilities, Big Cypress Basin,
Collier County School District, the Collier County Sheriffs Office and the
public.
· The evaluation process was broken down into four categories and corresponding
criteria:
· Emergency Response (Fire, EMS, Sheriff and Forestry)
· Change in Response Time
· Proximity to Agency (Insurance Qualification)
Mobility and Evacuation (Transportation Services)
· Increased evacuation options
· Connection to existing or planned signalized intersections
· Access to existing or planned arterials
· Reduced trip length
East of CR 951 Bridge Report
Page 3
... .
· Service Efficiency (School District, Parks, Public Utilities and
Big Cypress Basin)
· School bus efficiency
· Connectivity to existing or planned school sites
· Connectivity to existing or planned park sites
· Potential utility crossings and control structures
· Public Sentiment
· All of the above
· Local knowledge
· Quality of life
~
The stakeholders were asked to evaluate and rank the seven bridge locations as well as
determine the best bridge location in the study areas based on the above criteria. After
all rankings were completed by the outside agencies, staff compiled and evaluated the
data. The original study included three "Study Areas" in which the outside agencies
were to review and determine the best location for a bridge within that area.
Additionally, a new bridge was also recommended. Based upon those
recommendations, a new map was created with eleven (11) potential bridge locations.
The agencies were asked again to re-evaluate the potential bridge locations and re-rank
them. A Public Information Meeting was then held July 2, 2008 to solicit input from the
community with the benefit of the agency stakeholder recommendations and comments.
The four categories that were used in evaluating the potential bridge sites each have
their own specific need and value to the community. The categories have been detailed
below to provide more information on some of the considerations that were used in the
evaluation. A detailed view of the rankings can be found in Appendix C.
· Emergency Response
In providing the rankings for the eleven bridge locations the various agencies making
up the "Emergency Response" category (Big Corkscrew Island Fire District, Golden
Gate Fire District, Emergency Management Services, Forestry Service and Collier
County Sheriff's Office) were centered primarily on two components: time and
distance.
Decreasing response times can be a matter of life and death. The medical standard
for response time is eight minutes as that is the time required in cases of cardiac
arrest, if brain injury or death is to be avoided. For areas within the Estates that have
a response time greater than 8 minutes, the addition of bridges is important to reduce
those response times.
East of CR 951 Bridge Report
Page 4
2-5
When fighting a fire, every second counts in trying to contain or extinguish a fire. In
the US, every year hundreds of thousands of structural fires occur, causing billions in
damages. According to the most recent data available by FEMA, a residential fire is
reported every 80 seconds, and while statistical data shows a significant decrease in
civilian fire deaths and injuries, the number of fires in the United States continues on
a steady rise. Therefore, distance to the fire is an important issue. The fire districts
use a 5-mile drive distance as their measurement. By adding bridges it is anticipated
the Insurance Service Organization (ISO) rating will decrease thus homeowners could
see a reduction in their homeowners insurance from 10-40% as the new bridges
would decrease response time and mileage to some remote areas.
The ISO ranks properties on a scale from 1-10. If properties are within 5 driving miles
of a fire station, the property is automatically ranked as a 9. If properties are outside
a 5 mile driving distance, the property is classified a 10 which means there is no fire
service protection and thus, those properties pay a much higher rate of insurance.
Items which affect the ISO rating in reducing it from a 9, depends on staffing levels,
staff training, apparatus, record keeping, etc. for the fire district. Currently properties
within a 5 mile driving distance are ranked a 5 in the BCIFD's boundaries while
properties within a 5 mile driving distance are ranked a 4 in the r;GFD boundaries.
Estates properties outside the 5 mile driving distance are ranked a 10.
Bridge 4 is the most important bridge for BCIFD as it would decrease response time
by two minutes to some areas and would provide needed secondary egress for
emergencies. This bridge also brings portions of areas on 20th Street and 220d Street
into the five road mile range thus giving those property owners fire protection and
potentially decreasing their property owner Insurance. Bridge 11 and Bridge 8 were
the most important for GGFD. Bridge 11 reduced their response time by twenty
seconds to some areas and Bridge 8 reduced their response time by three and one-
half minutes to other areas with Vanderbilt Beach Road extension and connectivity to
the north. Bridges 2 and 3 are ranked high for fire, emergency management and the
sheriff as they would allow for a significant savings for mutual aid to the roadways off
16th St NE and 8th S1. NE.
· Mobility and Evacuation
While evaluating this category, staff considered existing roadways and signalized
intersections as well as planned improvements. Staff also considered evacuation
concerns that were evident from the recent and historical wildfires that have impacted
areas east of CR-951. Bridges 2 and 3 located on 8th and 16th Street NE scored high
based on their even spacing, existing connectivity to Golden Gate Boulevard and
Randall Boulevard and their potential connection to Vanderbilt Beach Road
Extension. They clearly establish a north south grid in the Estates connecting to three
existing or proposed arterials.
Bridges 6 and 7 located on 18th Avenue NE also completed an evenly spaced east
west road that ties into an existing bridge network, two schools and would connect
from Wilson Boulevard all the way to the Big Cypress DR!. Bridges 4 and 5 located
East of CR 951 Bridge Report
Page 5
2-6
on 4th Avenue NE and Wilson Boulevard (North of Immokalee) also complete the
existing grid system.
Evacuation is a function of providing an alternative or faster route in response or
anticipation of an event such as hurricane or wildfire. The bridges noted above would
provide secondary evacuation routes and alternative direction evacuation routes.
· Service Efficiency
Agency ran kings comprised of the public services category included publiC utilities,
school district, Big Cypress Basin, and parks. Adding more bridges to the Estates will
provide for more efficient public services to the area.
The proposed construction of water and sewer plants, that provide sewer, . potable
water and raw water require collection and distribution lines to and from facilities and
homes they service. They would have the ability to take advantag~ of new bridges to
span the canals along the chosen corridors.
Bridges will also allow for better bus routes for schools resulting inincreased zoning
flexibility and bus transportation efficiency. Ultimately this translates into cost savings
by reducing bus route mileage and potentially allowing for pedestrian access to
schools.
· Public Sentiment
The information gathered from staff and the outside agencies was presented to 'the
public to consider and evaluate. The public was asked to consider emergency
response and mobility while also considering how that would impact their quality of
life. Local knowledge was also solicited and proved beneficial in the evaluation of
Bridge 11 located on 14th Avenue SE. The public comments noted that there was an
existing drainage control structure located on 20th Avenue SE that could be used in
emergencies. It was also commented that a bridge on 10th or 12th Avenue SE might
better serve the area with the existing and planned schools on the west side of
Everglades Boulevard. There was also discussion that a bridge at 16th Avenue SE
might prove useful since the Long Range Transportation Plan shows a future
connection at that location. Comments from the public justified that location of Bridge
11 should revert back to a study area until such time that more information is
available.
In reviewing the public sentiments (Appendix D) there were several common themes
that were consistent in their responses.
· Support for better access, evacuation, emergency services, fire
response and insurance relief
· Concern for increased traffic, property values, and safety
· Site specific concerns versus overall benefit and need
East of CR 951 Bridge Report
Page 6
2-7
Public Involvement Plan (PIP)
A critical component of the Horizon Study is public involvement. It was decided that
the value of the bridge component and the impacts to a more localized area would
require its own PIP. A public meeting was held on July 2, 2008 at 7 p.m. at the
Oakridge Middle School cafeteria with over 150 in attendance. Two weeks prior to
the meeting over 1500 postcards were mailed to property owners on roadways where
a potential bridge was identified. One week before the meeting, ads were placed in
the Naples Daily News and Collier Citizen. Five days before the meeting, a variable
message board sign was placed in the median on CR 951 and one was placed in the
median on Golden Gate Boulevard announcing the meeting. News media also
covered the meeting, with ABC-7 conducting an interview with staff and airing the
story the day before the meeting as well as stories being printed .iD both the Naples
Daily News and the Collier Citizen. Information regarding the bridge study was also
posted on the Transportation Planning website along with a survey to gain public
input. The input from the public information meeting as well as the survey information
from the website were accumulated and are located in Appendix E.
As mentioned above, due to concerns raised at the public meeting regarding the
location of Bridge 11 on 14th Avenue SE, it was decided to re..evaluate the location of
that bridge and turn it back into a study area. An additional 1100 postcards were then
mailed to property owners on 10th Avenue SE, 12th Avenue SE, 14th Avenue SE, 16th
Avenue. SE, 18th Avenue SE and 20th Avenue SE notifying the property owners that
Bridge 11 was going to revert back to a study area. This was done so that these
residents would have the same benefit of notification as the prior mailing group.
A complete copy of the PIP documents and reporting can be found in Appendix E.
East of CR 951 Bridge Report
Page 7
2-8
Costs Analysis
A brief cost estimate was prepared using the FOOT Bridge Development Report (BOR) cost
estimating guidelines and the following exceptions are to be noted:
· Estimating the bridge cost using the BOR guidelines is done after the completion
of the preliminary design which includes member selection, member sizes and
member reinforcing. No preliminary designs were available for these bridges.
· The FOOT estimating process develops a cost for the bridge superstructure and
substructure from beginning to end bridge. Costs for all other items including but
not limited to the following were excluded from the costs: mobilization,
operations costs for existing bridges. walls, deck drainage systems,
embankments, fenders approach. slabs, load test and bank stabilization.
The following assumptions were made for the type of proposed 2 lane rural and 4-lane rural
structures provided in the study.
· The bridge length was determined based on a typical canal bmtom width of 30
feet and 2.1 embankment slopes between 6-foot wild life berm at each end bent.
The assumed bridge length is 101 feet. It was also assumed that the bridges will
be single spans at each crossing. For canals, that may provide utility crossing,
an additional bent was added to the cost. All bridges were evaluated using the
AASHTO Type IV beam. Pre-stressed concrete piles were assumed based on
typical foundations in Florida
BRIDGE COSTS
Proposed Design CEI Cost Deck Est. Total
Bridge Cost/sqft Constr. Est. Cost
Type Cost ($) ($) ($)* Cost ($) ($)
2-ln rural 135,608 77 ,504 135 775,035 988,147
4-ln rural 150,000 110,228 135 1,102,275 1,362,503
I
2-ln rural 145,608 77 ,504 135 775,035 998,147
w/utility
4-1n rural 160,000 110,228 135 1,102,275 1,372.503
w/utility
Complete cost estimate information can be found in Appendix F.
East of CR 951 Bridge Report
Page 8
2-9
FINAL RANKINGS
The public was asked to list the most important reason to add new bridges east of
CR-951. They ranked their priorities in the following order:
1. Better evacuation and emergency response times for fire, EMS and sheriff
2. Better access and mobility
3. Better services for schools, parks and utilities
EMERGENCY MOBILITY SERVICE PUBLIC
RESPONSE EFFICIENCY
Rank (fire, ems, sheriff, (transportation) (school district, parks, (rankings provided at
forestry service) public utilities, big cypress PIP 7/2/08 )
basin
#1 Bridge 2 - response
time reduced 2 minutes -
BCIFD Brid e3 Brid e5 Brid e2
#2 Bridge 3 - response
time reduced by 2
minutes BCIFD Brid e2 Brid e8 Brid e3
#3 Bridge 4 - response
time reduced by 2
minutes BCIFD Brid e5 Brid e6 Brid e6
#4 Bridge 12 - criticaltor
wildfires for
BCIFD/Forest Brid e 11* Brid e4 Brid e7
#5 Bridges 9 Forestry,
EMS, GGFD Brid es 4 Brid e7. Brid e8
#6 Brid e 6 - Sheriff Brid e 7 Brid e3 Brid e9
#7 Bridges 7 (Sheriff) &
11*Sheriff/Forestry/GGFD Brid e6 Brid e2 Brid e4
#8 Bridges 8 &10-
response time reduced by
3.5 minutes for Bridge 8
by GGFD (pending VBR
extension and connectivity
to the north Brid e8 Brid e 9 Brid e 12
#9 Bridge 5 - response
time reduced by 2 minutes
BCIFD Brid e 12
#10 Brid e 10
#11 Brid e 11*
*Based upon public comments at the public information meeting, Bridge 11 was
reverted back to a study area until further research is completed to detennine the best
location for this bridge. The study area is shown on the attached map in Appendix A.
East of CR 951 Bridge Report
Page 9
"_1 0
RECOMMENDATIONS
Based on agency rankings, staff evaluation, public ran kings and comments, Bridges 2
and 3 scored the highest. As such, it is recommended that these two are installed first
and at the same time. By installing them together, it wilt disperse the traffic between the
two adjacent facilities. Bridges 4, 5, 6 and 7 also ranked fairly high in all areas and
should be considered the next logical locations for bridges as funding allows. Bridge 12
ranks high for emergency response but scores low in other areas. Staff would
recommend that Bridge 12 is considered with the prior group as funding allows or seeks
a modified design which may satisfy emergency response. Bridges 8,9, and 10 would
be recommended as new roadways and schools are constructed. Funding may be from
alternative sources.
Bridge 1 is being constructed as part of the White Boulevard bridge replacement
project. Bridge 1 was approved as per Policy 6.1.1 and Policy 7.3.1 of the Golden Gate
Master Plan adopted into the Growth Management Plan December 2003.
. Policy 6.1.1 ....
In planning to increase the number of route alternatives through the Estates
Area, the Collier County Transportation Division will prioritize the following routes
over other alternatives:
a. The extension of Vanderbilt Beach Road from its current terminus to DeSoto
Boulevard.
b. The development of a north-south connection from the eastern terminus of
White Boulevard to Golden gate Boulevard.
c. The development of a new east-west roadway crossing the Estates Area
south of Golden gate Boulevard.
. Policy 7.3.1
By 2006, the Collier County Bureau of Emergency Services, the Collier County
Transportation Division, Golden Gate Fire Control and Rescue District, and other
appropriate Federal, State or local agencies, shall begin establishing one or more
of the following routes for emergency evacuation purposes:
a. An 1-75 Interchange at Everglades Boulevard.
b. Improved emergency access from Everglades Boulevard to 1-75.
c. Construction of a north-south bridge on 23rd Street, SW, between White
Boulevard and Golden Gate Boulevard.
Construction of Bridge 1 is anticipated in 2010 subject to funding.
After receiving many comments about the location of Bridge 11 J it was reverted back to
a study area encompassing an area from 10th Avenue SE south to 20th Avenue SE.
There was no clear consensus on the best location of that bridge. Until further study is
completed, and funding becomes available, it is recommended that this bridge location
remain a study area.
East of CR 951 Bridge Report
Page 10
2-11
APPENDIX A
MAP
-
East of CR 951 Bridge Report
Page 11
East of C.R. 951 Bridge Study
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2-13
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'I
APPENDIX B
AERIALS OF BRIDGE LOCATIONS
East of CR 951 Bridge Report
Page 12
GGEstates - BRIDGE STUDY
BRIDGE 1
N BRIDGE 1
Location: 23rd St. SW
1 blk N of White Blvd
Approx Canal Width: 110 ft
I
o
I I I I ,
50 100
I
200 Feet
TSD _plot 08/06/08
2-15
GGEstates - BRIDGE STUDY
BRIDGE 2
N
A
BRIDGE 2
Location: 16TH ST NE
south of 10th Ave NE
Approx Canal Width: 100 FT
J I I I I I J
o 87.5 175 350 Feet
TSD _plot 08/06/08
2-111
GGEstates - BRIDGE STUDY
BRIDGE 3
N
BRIDGE 3
Location: 8TH ST NE
south of 10th Ave NE
Approx Canal Width: 80 FT
I I I I I I I I
o 87.5 175
TSO _scale 1000 plot 08106108
I
350 Feet
2-17
._'"....~.. ON ...
GGEstates - BRIDGE STUDY
BRIDGE 4
N
BRIDGE 4
Location: 47th Avenue NE
Approx Canal Width: 110 FT
I I I
o 90 180 360 Feet
TSD _scale 1000 plot 08106108
2-1~
GGEstates - BRIDGE STUDY
BRIDGE 5
N
BRIDGE 5
Location: Wilson Blvd
south of 33rd Ave NE
Approx Canal Width: 55-60 ft
I I I I I I I I
o 16,000 32,000
I
64,000 Feet
TSD _scale 1000 plot 08/06/08
2-19
GGEstates - BRIDGE STUDY
BRIDGE 6
N
BRIDGE 6
Location: 18TH AVE NE
(between Wilson Ave N & 8th St NE)
Approx Canal Width: 60 FT
I I I
o 95 190 380 Feet
TSD _scale 1000 plotOB/06/08
2-20
GGEstates - BRIDGE STUDY
BRIDGE 7
N
A
BRIDGE 7
Location: 18TH AVE NE
(Between 8th St NE and16th St NE)
Approx Canal Width: 140 FT
I I I I I I I I I
o 100 200 400 Feet
TSD _scale 1000 plot 08106/08
2-21
GGEstates - BRIDGE STUDY
BRIDGE 8
N
A
BRIDGE 8
Location: North end of 13TH ST NW
into proposed VBR
Approx Canal Width: 60 FT
Exist PRIVATE BRIDGE
I I I I ,
o 55 110
I I I I
220 Feet
TSD _scale 1000 plot 08/06/08
2-22
GGEstates - BRIDGE STUDY
BRIDGE 9
N
A
BRIDGE 9
Location: 16TH ST SE
at the south end
Approx Canal Width: 25 FT
I I I I I I I I I
o 85 170 340 Feet
TSD _scale 1000 plot 08/06/08
2-23
^'_..,......l_....itl> . ,_..,_...,......,~_h.
GGEstates - BRIDGE STUDY
BRIDGE 10
N
A
BRIDGE 10
Location: Wilson Blvd 5
Approx Canal Width: 130 FT
I "I' I I I
o 50 100 200 Feet
TSD _scale 1000 plot 08106108
2-24
@tJ~n ~'W~
~1Xn m fr.) ?IiJiJDD [sn ffi
I
o
I
550 1 ,100
I
2,200 Feet
BRIDGE 11_A- 10TH AVE SE
N
A
BRIDGE 11_B - 12TH AVE SE
..
BRIDGE 11_C - 14TH AVE SE
BRIDGE 11_0 - 16TH AVE SE
BRIDGE 11_E - 18TH AVE SE
BRIDGE 11_F - 20TH AVE SE
200B_56_BRIOGE 11:d7
10TH AVE SE to 20TH AVE SE
scale 6000
TSO 06Aug09_lrayM)
2-25
GGEstates - BRIDGE STUDY
*~I~:'(
., ,
,
,.
"
BRIDGE 12
N
A
I I I I
0 50 100
BRIDGE 12
Location: 62th Ave NE
(west of 40th St NE)
Approx Canal Width: 70 FT
I I I
200 Feet
TSD _scale 1000 plot 08/06/08
2-26
APPENDIX C
RANKING MATRICES
..
East of CR 951 Bridge Report
Page 13
2-27
FINAL RANKINGS
Public was asked the most important reason to add new bridges to the Estates
Number 1 reason was for better evacuation and emergency response times for fire, ems, sheriff
Number 2 reason was for better access/mobility
Number 3 reason was for better services for scholls, parks and utilities
EMERGENCY MOBILITY SERVICE PUBLIC
RESPONSE EFFICIENCY
Rank (fire, ems, sheriff, (transportation) (school district, parks, (rankings provided
forestry service) public utilities, big at PIP 7/2/08)
cvnrp._<:;._~ b~-<:;.inl
#1 Bridge 2 - response
time reduced 2 minutes
BCIFD Bridge 3 Bridge 5 ~ Bridge 2
#2 Bridge 3 - response
time reduced by 2
minutes BCIFD Bridge 2 Bridge 8 Bridge 3
#3 Bridge 4 - response
time reduced by 2
minutes BCIFD Bridge 5 Bridge 6 Bridge 6
#4 Bridge 12 - critical for
wildfires for
BCIFD/Forestry Bridge 11 Bridge 4 Bridge 7
#5 Bridges 9 Forestry,
EMS, GGFD Bridges 4 Bridge 7 Bridge 8
#6 Bridge 6 - Sheriff Bridge 7 Bridge 3 Bridge 9
#7 Bridges 7 (Sheriff) &
11
Sheriff/Forestry/GGFD Bridge 6 Bridae 2 Bridge 4
#8
Bridges 8 &10-
response time reduced
by 3.5 minutes for Bridge
8 by GGFD (pending
VBR extension and
connectivity to the north) Bridge 8 Bridge 9 Bridae 12
#9 Bridge 5 - response
time reduced by 2
minutes BCIFD Bridge 9 Bridge 12 Bridge 5
#10 Bridges 1 0 Bridge 10 Bridge 11
#11 Bridae 12 Bridge 11 Bridge 10
2-2R
BRIDGE STUDY EVALUATION MATRIX- EMERGENCY RESPONSE
NEW BCIFD NEW GGFD Emergency Forestry
Ranking Ranking Services Division Sheriff TOTALS
Bridge 2 4 3 2 11 1 21
Bridge 3 5 4 2 11 1 23
Bridge 4 1 7 1 11 11 31
Bridge 5 3 9 9 11 11 43
Bridge 6 6 10 7 11 1 35
Bridge 7 7 11 7 11 1 37
Bridge 8 11 1 4 11 11 38
Bridge 9 11 5 4 3 11 34
Bridge 10 11 6 6 4 11 38
Bridge 11 11 2 11 2 11 37
Bridge 12 2 8 11 1 11 33
w**NOTE: Brid Ie 1 not ranked-- already approved location/ Ranked #1 for Sheriff
Rankings--1- is best; 12 is least Important
7/2/2008 Bridge 2 21
Bridge 3 23
Bridge 4 31
Bridge 12 33
Bridges 9 34
Bridge 6 35
Bridge 7 & 11 37
Bridge 8 & 10 38
Bridge 5 43
ems ranking received 7/2/08
2-29
BRIDGE STUDY EVALUATION MATRIX- MOBILITY
Current Future Conn to Sign Chng In Trip
Connectivity Connect Inter Length TOTALS
Bridge 2 2 1 1 3 7
Bridge 3 2 1 1 1 5
Bridae 4 1 3 11 4 19
Bridge 5 4 4 4 4 16
Bridge 6 6 8 4 4 22
Bridae 7 5 7 4 4 20
Bridge 8 11 5 3 11 30
Bridge 9 11 10 4 11 .. 36
Bridge 10 11 11 4 11 37
Bridge 11 7 6 4 2 19
Bridae 12 8 9 11 10 38
*** NOTE: Bridge 1 was not ranked - already approved location
Rankings--- 1- is best; 12 is least important
Bridge3 5
Bridge 2 7
Bridge 5 16
Bridge 11 19
Bridge 4 19
BridQe 7 20
Bridge 6 22
BridQe 8 30
Bridae 9 36
BridQe 10 37
Bridaes 12 38
,,- ~"
BRIDGE STUDY EVALUATION MATRIX-SERVICE EFFICIENCY
New School Public Big Cypress
Rating Utilities Parks Basin TOTALS
Bridge 2 7 11 5 5 28
Bridge 3 7 11 4 4 26
Bridge 4 2 4 10 1 17
Bridge 5 1 3 1 1 6
Bridge 6 3 2 6 5 16
Bridge 7 3 5 7 9 24
Bridge 8 5 1 1 8 15
Bridge 9 6 11 1 11 .... 29
Bridge 10 11 11 8 10 40
Bridge 11 9 11 11 11 42
Bridge12 11 11 9 5 36
**-* NOTE: Bridoe 1 not ranked - alreadv an approved brid~e to be built
Rankings--1- is best; 11 is least important
Bridge 5 6
Bridge 8 15
Bridge 6 16
Bridge 4 17
Bridge 7 24
Bridge 3 26
Bridge 2 28
Bridge 9 29
Bridge 12 36
Bridge 10 40
Bridge 11 42
2-31
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APPENDIX D
PUBLIC COMMENTS
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East of CR 951 Bridge Report
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2-38
APPENDIX E
PUBLIC INFORMATION PLAN
....
East of CR 951 Bridge Report
Page 15
2-39
Postcard sent in June for July 2 Public Information Meeting-
approximately 1500 sent
Postcard sent in July after Public Information Meeting-
approximately 1100 sent
2-40
Collier County : East of CR 951 Bridge Study
Page 1 of 1
.,.".,_....
East of CR 951 Bridge Study
EAST OF C.R. 951 BRIDGE STUDY
A study is in process to determine locations where bridges may be built in Golden Gate Estates to connect
roads that will Improve traffic mobility, improve services, allow for faster response times for emergency
services and improve evacuation routes. Twelve sites have been suggested so far to the East of 951
Committee to be considered for potential bridges following input from agencies such as Collier County
EMS, Corkscrew Island Fire District, Golden Gate Fire District, Collier County Parks and Recreation
Department, Collier County Public Utilities DiviSion, Collier County School District and the Collier County
Sheriff's Office.
The Transportation Services Division's 5-Year Work Program and the Metropolitan Planning Organization's
Long Range Transportation Plan. recognize the need for bridge maintenance as well as new bridge
construction. Locations deemed as potential sites for bridges at this point went through an evaluation and
ranking process based on the following criteria: .....
o Existing and future connectivity;
o Change in response time for emergency services;
o Impact on roadway network Level of Service (LOS);
o Connection to planned or existing signalized intersections;
o Change in trip length;
o Impact to the roadway being connected to the bridge;
o Access to. existing and planned school sites; and
o School bus efficiency.
After all rankings are completed by the outside agencies and the public, Transportation Planning
Department staff will compile and evaluate the data, provide cost analysis as well as review the impact on
the community.
A final report and recommendation will be made to the East of CR 951 Committee in August and then it
will be included in the East of CR 951 Infrastructure and Services Horizon Study as well as provided to the
Board of County Commissioners in September so they can adopt a priority list.
Click btiC..to view map with proposed bridges.
1f you have questions, please call1isa Koehler at 252-8192 or email heratllsakoehler@collieraov.net
Updated July 25, 2008
http://www.colliergov.net/index.aspx ?page=2451
817/2008
2-41
Collier County Government
Transportation Services Division
Transportation Engineering and
Construction Management Department
2885 S. Horseshoe Drive
Naples, FL 34104
Contact:
Connie Deane
Community Liaison
239-252-8192 or 8365
June 23, 2008
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
PUBLIC INFORMATION MEETING
The public is invited to attend a brief presentation and review the displays for Collier County
Transportation Planning Department's East of County Road (CR) 951 Bridge Study
Tuesday, July 1,2008
7p.m.
Oakridge MiddleScbool
14975 Collier Boulevard
Naples
. Staff members are conducting this bridge study to investigate possible north-south and east-west
roadway connections to improve evacuation routes, decrease emergency response times for rue.
emergency services and law enforcement. help improve traffic mobility and improve services to
the area.
. After the briefpresentatioll. staff will be available to answer any questions. All are welcome to
review the study displays and talk with staffmembers.
Members of the Board of County Commissioners may be in attendance at this public information
meeting.
For more information, call Principal Planner Lisa Koehler at the Collier County Transportation
Services Division at 239-252-8192 or e-mail LisaKoehler@colliergov.net.
If you are a person with a disability who needs any accommodation in order to participate in this
proceeding. you are entitled, at DO cost to you, to the provision of certain assistance. Please contact
the Collier County Facilities Management Department located at 3301 East Tamiami Trail. Naples,
Florida, 34112. (239) 252-8380; assIsted listening devices for the hearing impaired are available in
the County Commissioners' Office.
###
Eileen O'Grady
2-42
Collier County Government
Transportation Services Division
Transportation Engineering and
Construction Management Department
2885 S. Horseshoe Drive
Naples, FL 34104
Contact:
Connie Deane
Community Liaison
239-252-8192 or 8365
June 25, 2008
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
East of 951 Bridge Study Requests Residents' and Visitors' Input at
Public Information Meeting on July 1
--
A study is in process to determine locations where bridges may be built in Golden Gate Estates to
connect roads that will improve traffic mobility, improve services, allow for faster response times for
emergency services and improve evacuation routes. Twelve sites have been suggested so far to the East of 951
Committee to be considered for potential bridges following input from agencies such as Collier County EMS,
Corkscrew Island Fire District, Golden Gate Fire District, Collier County Parks and Recreation Department,
Collier County Public Utilities Division, Collier County School District and the Collier County Sheriff's Office.
To gather further information a public information meeting will be held on Tuesday, July 1 at 7 p.m. at
Oakridge Middle School, 14975 Collier Boulevard., Naples. There will be a brief presentation at 7 p.m.
followed by the opportunity to review displays and discuss potential bridge sites with staff members. Residents
and visitors are welcome to attend and encouraged to participate.
The Transportation Services Division's 5-Year Work Program and the Metropolitan Planning
Organization's Long Range Transportation Plan recognize the need for bridge maintenance as well as new
bridge construction. Locations deemed as potential sites for bridges at this point went through an evaluation
and ranking process based on the following criteria:
o Existing and future connectivity;
o Change in response time for emergency services;
o Impact on roadway network Level of Service (LOS);
o Connection to planned or existing signalized intersections;
o Change in trip length;
o Impact to the roadway being connected to the bridge;
o Access to existing and planned school sites;
o School bus efficiency; and
o Cost.
-more-
2-43
East of951 Bridge Study Requests Residents and Visitors Input at Public Information Meeting on July IlPage 2 of2
After all rankings are completed by the outside agencies and the public, Transportation Planning
Department staff will compile and evaluate the data, provide cost analysis as well as review the impact on the
community.
District 5 Commissioner Jim Coletta encourages community members to attend the meeting on July 1 in
order to have a say in this important study.
"We appreciate the input we have received thus far from emergency service responders and other agencies,"
said Coletta. "Since so much of Golden Gate Estates includes dead end roads that stop at canals, there is a
great need to bridge some of those canals to provide better emergency services as well as evacuation routes in
case of tires like we saw only last month that created such havoc and devastation for so many."
A final report and recommendation will be made to the East of951 Committee in August and then it will
be provided to the Board of County Commissioners in September so they can adopt a priority list.
Members of the Board of County Commissioners may be in attendance at this informational public
....
workshop.
If you are a person with a disability who needs any accommodation in order to participate in this
proceeding, you are entitled, at no cost to you, to the provision of certain assistance. Please contact the Collier
County Facilities Management Department located at 3301 East Tamiami Trail, Naples, Florida, 34112, (239)
252-8380; assisted listening devices for the hearing impaired are available in the County Commissioners'
Office.
For further information please contact Transportation Planning Department Project Manager Lisa Koehler at
239-252-8192.
###
[News Media: If you have any questions, please contact Community Liaison Connie Deane at
conniedeane@colliergov.net or either 239-252-8192 or 8365; or Public Information Specialist Eileen O'Grady
at 213-5801 or eileel1ogradv(@,colliergov.net]
2-44
Bridges not yet crossed: naplesnews.com
Page 10f2
naplesnews.com
Bridges not yet crossed
By KENNETH COSTEllO
Wednesday, July 9, 2008
Plans for 12 connector bridges in the Golden Gate Estates received mixed response, July 1, as nearly 150
people attended the East of 951 Bridge Study meeting at Oakridge Middle School. Objections ranged from
lifestyle impacts to air quality concerns, while other residents urged officials to move ahead with the bridges
as quickly as possible.
"This is the bridge that should be built first," Golden Gate Estates Area Civic Association member Peggy
Whitbeck said of the connector proposed for the south end of Wilson Boulevard and Frangipani Avenue. That
bridge is part of a corridor proposal that would connect Wilson south to Landfill Road.
The meeting was led by members of the Collier County Transportation Planning DepClttment as part of the
East of CR 951 Infrastructure and Services Horizon Study, which has been holding meetings over the last two
years to secure public input on community service needs such as police, fire, EMT's, roads, bridges, schools,
libraries and parks.
The bridges are proposed for 23rd Street SW over the Golden Gate Main Canal, the north end and the south of
16th Street NE, the west end of 45th Avenue NE, the north end of Wilson Boulevard, west end of Jung
Boulevard, bridge connecting 16th Ave.nue NW to 16th Avenue NE, the north end of 13th Street NW, the
south end of Wilson Boulevard, bridge over the main canal on 14th Avenue SE and a bridge proposed by the
Big Corkscrew Fire & Rescue District at 62nd Avenue NE.
According to Nick Casalanguida, director of transportation planning, the purpose of the meeting was to obtain
public feedback from residents. The 12 locations have already been evaluated by the Collier County Sheriff's
Office, Division of Forestry, Emergency Medical Services, the school district, fire districts, public utilities, parks
and recreation and Big Cypress Basin.
According to Casalanguida, there has never been a road grid in the Estates, primarily due to the number of
canals. Most of the roads dead-end at the canal.
"First responders have said that response times are longer due to the lack of bridges," he said. "We would like
to build multiple bridges, so one street will not have to bear the burden of increased traffic."
Proponents said the May 29 wildfire in the Estates highlighted the need for multiple connections to improve
emergency response access.
Others, such as Jeff Stivers, also were opposed to building multiple bridges.
"We chose to live on a dead end street. We did not want through traffic. We wanted less traffic and less
crime," he said. "1 knew the limitations of the traffic system when 1 moved here, people's lack of planning to
get a quart of milk or a loaf of bread should not require the county to build more bridges."
Stivers agreed that pOlice and fire need better access and recommended that single lane bridges be built and
gated for police and emergency access only.
Gates for emergency access only and speed bumps to slow traffic were discussed when the last major
connector bridge was build on 13th Street SW in 2002. Both ideas were ultimately turned down. Emergency
http://www.naplesnews.comlnews/2008/jull09/bridges-not - yet -crossed/?printer= 1 /
8/7/2008
2-45
THE COLLIER INTERACTIVE GROWTH MODEL
.(CIGMl
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Prepared for:
The Collier County Board of County Commissioners
And
The Collier County Comprehensive Planning Department
C
-er County
~ '- .~
- --
By:
Van Buskirk, Ryffel and Associates, Inc.
100 Estero Boulevard, Suite 434
Fort Myers Beach, Florida 33931
Phone: (239) 463-3929 Fax: (239) 463-5050
Webpage and EmaiI: www.interactivegrowthmodeI.com
September 29, 2008
@ Copyright 2008 by Van Buskirk, Ryffel and Associates, Inc., all rights reserved. Reprint permission must be
requested in writing from Van Buskirk, Ryffel and Associates, Inc. Interactive Growth Modelâ„¢ is a registered
trademark.
3-1
Van Buskirk, Ryffel and Associates, Inc.
Planning Consultants
100 Estero Boulevard, Suite 434
Fort Myers Beach, Florida 33931
Phone: (239) 463-3929 Fax: (239) 463-5050
Visit our Web page and Email addresses at: www.interactivegrowthmodelcom
Charter Members Al1rerican Plam.ing Association and American Institute of Certified Planners
September 29, 2008
Michael Bosi, AICP, Community Planning Manager
Collier County Comprehensive Planning Department
2800 North Horseshoe Drive
Naples, FL 34104
Re: Transmittal-The Collier Interactive Growth Model (CIGM) Executive Summary
Dear Michael:
We are pleased to submit this Executive Summary on the development, assumptions, conclusions and
use of the Collier Interactive Growth ModeJ (CIGM). Collier County now has this powerful and
proactive planning tool along with an extensive database that can be used to update the County's Growth
Management Plan and better assess the effects of future land use decisions. You will also be able to
update data and other information easily through on-going access to our software and assess the
implications of alternative "What-if" growth management scenarios.
We believe the hard work that went into the development of the ClCM will reap benefits beyond those
contemplated in our original contract with the County. If the opportunity presents itself in the future, we
would be pleased to continue offering similar services on an as-needed basis. A separate document, The
CIGM Technical Appendix contains the data spreadsheets and other information that was used in the
development of the CIGM and is found at the Collier County Comprehensive Planning Department.
Your steadfast participation and that of your fine staff, particularly Beth Yang, and other deparbnent
heads, particularly the staff of the Property Appraiser who provided extensive parcel data queries, was
greatly appreciated. We also want to thank The Horizon Study Committee for their valuable input, and
the County Commissioners and the County Administration for their support throughout this important
project and for their vision and understanding of its worth when its development was first discussed.
We wish continued success to you and to Collier County's planning efforts.
Sincerely,
D~~~~~
Creators of the Interactive Growth Modelâ„¢
3-2
Section 1
General Overview
Historical Background and Perspective
On May 24, 2006 the Board of County Commissioners (BCC) was presented the
preliminary report of the East of County Road 951 Infrastructure and Services Horizon
Study. The preliminary report was the identification of three levels of service options
for public infrastructure and service outlays for the area east of CR-951. During the
presentation, the BCC provided staff with the direction to incorporate a land use model,
specifically a Collier County Interactive Growth Model (hereafter CIGM) into the study
to refine infrastructure planning in all areas lying generally east of CR-951. At that
time, staff was instructed to enter iflto contract negotiations with Van Buskirk, Ryffel
and Associates, Inc. (hereafter VBR) to determine population and its distribution over
time to build-out. This would integrate the findings of the studies cited above and
create such a growth model to address the growth expected in that area in the future
and to optimize the return on public investments.
The original study area is approximately 1,210,618 acres or 1900 square miles. This is
an area slightly larger than the state of Delaware, and includes six distinct districts
within that total. It includes all land east of CR-951, with the exception of Marco Island.
(See Map 1) In subsequent discussions with County staff, it was agreed that all lands
abutting CR 951 on its west side would be included in the interests of good and logical
planning and at no additional cost to the County. The Everglades were also included as
this represents a significant
portion of the study area. The six
districts include: Golden Gate
Estates north of 1-75 (51,200
acres); the Rural Fringe Mixed
Use District (93,600 acres); the
Rural Lands Stewardship Area
(195,846 acres); the Immokalee
Urbanized Area (16,992 acres);
the South Golden Gate Estates
Natural Resources Protection
Area (NRPA) (16,992 acres); and
federal and state lands (821,620
acres). Each of these districts
contains specific regulations as to
the manner, intensity and type of
development permitted.
Map 1
TIle CrGM Study Area
N
I
SOtUTE'; COlliE'l'("MuHy Cou\preheU6ivl!" PliU11ling Dl"p<UtnH!Il\t ~il~~r'~~~':~~=:~~=:''':ri=~~';l~~c:'.%=~~:
;::annatll'I'lt IS tDlsaCl1/I1cy or"1llidtt ~..t4l1! IVI!~ dlIlty,lR.mIdlll: Kantli'JdlIJlICl"lhe il'llwr-.!i~n".
;:hi. ""P. e~...~ oml..ons rNy o~r_1h'''t Q;hf CCunIj' CWItWIt be t>RI tIIIb/I! fOflnli~all'I1hll
"'"1,.10.... du~1D int><....... ~n of..... inlo.......... onlhl5lr1lop Flun aU<a:llheCoIief Coll'Ky" CO,.,.....rhemi~
PlNlM'",g OePlrtrnu;tMt, .ny",,<< IUM ~ll"'~"iltU""-"" "II;. ......wlha dlt5...S!d It; gulz il
3-3
The 2005 Residential Build-Out Study, compiled by the Comprehensive Planning
Department, projected a population of 688,489 for the study area. In 2005 it had a
population estimated at 71,000. However, subsequent, and more current information,
led VBR to forecast a build-out population of 442,537 persons. Collier County presently
employs a population forecasting method characterized as traditional straight-line
population projections. This heretofore accepted methodology had been sufficient until
recently, when the County's 2005 Residential Build-out Study projected a build-out
scenario, but did not forecast its timing. The study indicated what build-out conditions
would be, but not when they would occur. The results of the build-out study
underscored the need for Collier County to develop a more effective method to keep
pace with its growth. An improved approach was needed to link population growth
with capital infrastructure expenditures, while balancing the growing demand for
public services with limited tax dollars available.
With the unique characteristics of the area's six sub-districts, and the number of
residents projected in the future, capital infrastructure and public service decisions will
shape the sustainability of future development and the efficiency in which
infrastructure and public services are provided. To better gauge the timing and manner
in which the area will develop and the necessary decisions related to public capital
outlays for that development, the Board of County Commissioners directed Staff to
incorporate a land use component into the study. In researching firms that provide
land use studies to municipalities and counties, Staff identified, VBR as the only firm
whose trademarked and copyrighted product, Interactive Growth Mode!TM (IGM),
could provide the modeling needed to satisfy questions related to future growth in the
study area.
VBR developed the technology in their Interactive Growth Model, â„¢ that has proven
effective in dealing with these growth management situations. This planning firm is the
sole source provider of this specialized modeling application, staff training in its use,
professional support and eventual proprietary licensing. Staff determined that the VBR
product and its services are a unique planning model and the only one in the United
States that is capable of meeting the County's requirements.
The Interactive Growth ModeITM uses the population forecast as a key input element
and distributes the population, in five-year increments, over time to build-out. It can
also be applied to commercial corridor allocation models, comprehensive plan updates,
economic development, and Traffic Analysis Zone updates. The Interactive Growth
ModeITM can be used to determine the timing and location of utilities, school facilities,
park and recreation facilities, fire stations and the data for a community's budget
allocations to mention just a few. It can also be used to demonstrate "What If?"
scenarios of alternative growth management policies and decisions of the community,
allowing the implications and results of different planning decisions to be studied.
3-4
This project, The Collier Interactive Growth Model, (CIGM) consists of developing,
testing, and implementing a population forecasting model for accurate forecasting in
five-year increments to build-out. Once a forecasting model is determined, the project
proceeds to designing, developing and implementing a Collier County Interactive
Growth Model to forecast when and where growth will take place, the apportionment
of land uses to meet the needs of the population, and the characteristics of the
population. This model is a tool for a comprehensive growth management strategy for
the entire area.
Collier County also selected seven sub-models of the IGM, including: commercial,
industrial/wholesale, school facilities, open space, fire/EMS, law enforcement, and
affordable housing. These sub-models were used to determine the need and extent of
each category, commensurate with population growth over time and their optimal
locations.
There are numerous growth management implications associated with the Collier
County Interactive Growth Model. The primary function was to identify land use
issues before they become problematic. The CIGM can help ensure that the right
parcels are available to meet the current and future demands for neighborhood,
community, and regional shopping centers. This is a smart growth concept associated
with sustainable development, which was the focus of the County's Community
Character Plan, Toward Better Places. One fundamental aspect of "Smart Growth" and
"Sustainable Development" is the concept that residents should not have to travel great
distances outside their neighborhoods to shop. To do so increases demands on
roadways, and infrastructure, and increases travel costs. The CIGM will be utilized by
staff to ensure that the various subsets of land uses necessary to maintain a healthy
sustainable economy is provided for within the future development for the East of CR-
951 Study Area. Through this monitoring, the BCC can make appropriate demands
upon petitions for future development and determine policy decisions to guide that
development.
Another major function of the CIGM is better management of appropriations in
future fiscal years. The CIGM can be used to pace timing and identify advantageous
locations for expenditures and acquisitions of land for parks, water and sewer facilities,
fire stations and the like. This allows Collier County to use their resources for the
maximum benefit of its citizens. The CIGM will be a management tool to assist in
updating the Annual Update and Inventory Report (AUIR) and Capital Improvement
Element (CIE) of the Growth Management Plan. Further, as the population increases
east of CR 951, the CIGM will help to formulate recommended Growth Management
Plan amendments, in the Golden Gate Area Master Plan as well as the Future Land Use
Element.
3-5
Incorporating the CIGM into Collier County's planning efforts places the County on
firm statutory ground. Other governmental jurisdictions are using the Interactive
Growth ModeFM for comprehensive planning purposes. Bringing it into their decision-
making processes has received no negative feedback from the Florida Department of
Community Affairs (DCA). A change in population methodology as set forth in the
Capital Improvement Element and Future Land Use Element may require a Growth
Management Plan Amendment - which must be explained and supported by data and
analysis. This could be provided for by the CIGM.
Section 2
Overview/Basics of the CIGM
The Purpose of the CIGM, Its Goals, Assumptions and Key Objectives
The purpose of the Collier Interactive Growth Model (CIGM) was to: forecast the
spatial distribution of the County's population over time, to build-out and to forecast
the apportionment of land uses to meet the needs of the population, in the most cost
effective manner. The specific goals of the study included:
· Accurately forecast population over time to build-out in the study area
· Forecast when and where growth will take place;
· Determine if there will be sufficient land uses designated to support the
characteristics of the population;
· Determine the need for supporting land uses by type and intensity;
· Forecast the timing and spacing of supporting facilities such as schools, parks,
commercial centers and fire stations;
· Train staff on CIGM operations and annual updating procedures;
· Provide data for graphic interpretation of CIGM results.
To create the CIGM and have it become operational dealing with an immense area,
numerous sub-area studies and complex interrelationships, assumptions had to be
made with regard to the year 2007 baseline scenario which carried on throughout the
model's development. These major assumptions included:
· The study area consists of all the land lying east of CR 951;
· The study area was divided into 172 zones (Traffic Analysis Zones). With some
adjustments, each zone was inventoried for current development and built-out
development based on the legal yield based on the Future Land Use Element
(FLUE) of the County's Growth Management Plan;
3-6
· The CIGM applied a series of algorithms to solve problems. An algorithm is a
procedure to solve a problem that may have many solutions. Once the
parameters are defined, the algorithm will produce a solution;
· The parameters for the school sub-model are the current level of services, school
plants by type, plant capacity, timing of plants and the students generated by
school plant over time in order to determine the timing and location of facilities.
(When sub-model parameters change, the CIGM is adjusted accordingly and all
new data is processed through the software. The CIGM is therefore a dynamic
model. The 2007 baseline scenario is based on current levels of service, and as
these change, the CIGM data changes);
· The parameters for the recreation and park sub-model were the current level of
service for community and regional parks;
· The parameters for the commercial sub-model were the ULI guidelines and the
current market in the study area for neighborhood, community and regional
commercial centers;
· The parameters for the fire station sub-model were the ISO standards and
requirements of fire stations for a Class 1 rating;
· The demographic model was developed applying the ratio method and
regression analysis to comparable counties in different stages of development;
· The service area for schools, parks and fire stations, and the market area for
commercial faciltiies are the study area limits as of 2007.
The Interactive Growth Model,TM created by Dr. Paul Van Buskirk, and owned by
VBR, was the planning tool used to create the CIGM. It consists of data and formulas
that simulate and forecast the distribution of growth. It also describes and explains the
relationship of key demographic and economic variables. The IGMTM is interactive, i.e.,
when one of the key variables is changed, it shows the influence on the other key
variables.
The key objectives needed to address the goals of the study described above and the
development of the CIGM included:
1. A current inventory of development and demographics by Traffic Analysis
Zones (TAZ);
3-7
2. The creation of the build-out inventory of development by type and intensity
and the forecasting of demographics by T AZ;
3. The disaggregation of the study area into 172 T AZ which comprise
approximately 70,000 individual parcels of land, to enable the handling of over
an estimated one million bits of data;
4. An accurate population forecast (the Population Forecast Model);
5. The design and development of sub-models selected by the County;
6. The design and development of criteria and formulas for the spatial distribution
of development over time;
7. Data output by T AZ's in five-year increments to build-out.
The output data that resulted from the objectives described above were then
translated into graphic interpretations (shown later in this report). These are for use by
the County for presentation purposes to reach the widest possible audience with
varying levels of technical expertise.
Section 3
Population Forecasting
The Importance of an Accurate Build-out Population Model
The starting point of any long range planning effort in a community begins with an
accurate population forecast that is projected to build-out if possible. Through its
consultants, Collier County prepared the aggregate population of the county to its
build-out in five-year increments. Future land uses need to keep pace with population
growth through time, as do the concurrency of the public services needed by that
population. The fiscal costs associated with providing those services need to be known
to protect and foster quality of life.
The aggregate projected population of Collier County in five-year increments was a
key input to the Collier County Interactive Growth Model (CIGM). The CIGM had the
capability to distribute that population over time to build-out. With the knowledge of
the distribution of population over time comes the ability to determine when and where
support services and land uses need to be, and to provide them in the most efficient
manner. Collier County will reap the benefits of the CIGM as an important planning
tool for long range planning. The County will also be able to consider alternative
3-8
"what-if?" growth scenarios using the CIGM to address changing times, values,
circumstances and the fiscal requirements associated with them.
To summarize, the benefits of an accurate build-out population model includes:
· Creating a benchmark build-out population scenario based on current policies, i.e.
zoning, land use plan in order to test and compare alternative scenarios.
· Disaggregating the study area into manageable sub-areas (172 T AZ (Traffic Analysis
Zones, which consist of over 70,000 individual parcels of land) provided opportunities
to test alternative scenarios to determine spatial development impacts.
· Having the ability to test the need at build-out and the intervening years, for the
general apportionment of land uses, their amounts and distribution to meet the need of
residents. For example, how many acres of parks are needed to meet park standards at
build-out for the population? Or, how many acres of shopping areas are needed to meet
the demands of the population and how should they be distributed to reduce vehicle
trips and trip lengths?
· Possessing a planning tool to achieve and maintain that which is important to the
County's residents. In effect, the desirable build-out scenario can be used translated into
actionable goals and objectives in revisions to the County's Comprehensive Plan that
can be measurable up to build-out.
· Acting as a clearinghouse to determine positive and negative effects, of most planning
activities at build-out. For example, parks, schools, commercial centers, utilities, etc.
· The Population Foreca$t Build-out Model was a major first step and critical input into
the development the Collier County Interactive Growth Model. The CIGM distributed
the population as a function of time and is a valuable planning tool to help the County
plan for its growth over time, such as the apportionment and reapportionment and
distribution of land uses, consistent with population growth and the timing of a level of
services consistent with growth and its accompanying fiscal implications.
Collier County Population Forecasting
Like many other counties in Florida, Collier County has experienced significant
growth since 1980. During that 26-year period, Collier County grew from a population
of 85,971 in 1980 to an estimated population of 314,649 in 2006, a 365 percent increase. In
light of this reality, it was determined, by the Collier County Board of County
Commissioners, that there was a necessity, to accurately forecast population over time
for the short and long-term planning horizons. This ensures that infrastructure is
]-9
neither prematurely advanced nor allowed to fall behind population demand.
Infrastructure can be the road network, utilities, schools, recreational facilities and
public services. It is well known that the cost to "catch up" infrastructure far exceeds
the cost of being proactive to more accurately meet the demands as they occur. For
example, to invest public capital to replace infrastructure before the term of its useful
life, i.e. 20 years due to over-utilization, can result in negative returns on public
investment. Likewise, over-estimating population could result in large-scale capital
investment that is underutilized with little beneficial returns.
There are more accurate applications and methodologies to forecast aggregate
population growth than the typical linear extrapolation. The Collier Interactive Growth
Model (CIGM) distributes the forecasted growth over time and provides for direct
application of traffic models, for example, to forecast the need and location for current
and future improvements. Similarly, the timing of utilities and a host of demands, i.e.
retail and office space, recreational facilities, schools, fire stations, etc., can also be more
accurately assessed as to size and location over time.
Forecasting Methods
The following methods were reviewed to determine which would be most
applicable to forecasting the Collier County population and the study area, for the short
and long term. These methodologies included:
. Cohort Component Model
· Simple Curve Fitting or Extrapolation Model
· Exponential Model
· Gompertz (Sigmoid or Logistic) model.
Cohort Component Model
This method" ages" the various age groups or cohorts in the population into the
future and applies the appropriate birth and death rates. It also requires an estimate of
the level of in-and-out migration. This method can be quite accurate when forecasting
population up to 10 or 20 years into the future where in-migration is not the major
growth factor.
In the cohort component population projections: births, deaths and migration are
projected separately by applying cohort specific rates of population divided into age
and gender cohorts. However, when high levels of in-migration and second homes are
expected over long periods of time, this model becomes less relevant because it focuses
on the aging of the current population, while providing little assistance in forecasting
the critical rate of in-migration. This model is sophisticated and expensive and will not
accurately forecast long-term growth for Collier County.
3-10
The Cohort Survival Method adjusts figures from the last census forward by age and
gender groups year by year to the date of the forecast, with separate adjustments made
for each of the three major components of deaths, births and net migrations. This
method is used by the U.S. Census Bureau and many state agencies to forecast
population. Research has shown that this method has historically underestimated
growth. For example, the Census Bureau used this model in 1975 to forecast the
population for Florida in the year 2000 and underestimated the population by three
million. Its accuracy increases for large communities with slow growth and a shorter
term. It disaggregates the population demographically but not spatially, and it has no
upper limit of growth.
Research has demonstrated that the logistic (sigmoid) curve is accurate for long-term
forecasting. For example, a Belgian mathematician named Verhulst, using this method,
predicted in 1840 what the population of the United States would be in 1940. His
forecast was off by less than 1 percent.
The CIGM Model does disaggregate the population spatially, and applies
demographic and economic forecasts as well as the development of land resources by
type and intensity.
Simple Curve Fitting on Extrapolation Model
This method plots past population levels over time in a time series and then extends
the line or curve by regression analysis into the future to forecast population levels. In
the early stages of growing communities growth curves are often linear. Merely
extending that linear curve into the future greatly underestimates future growth.
Likewise, for communities in their mid-stage of growth, the extrapolation of the growth
curve into the future greatly overestimates future growth. Another shortcoming of this
method is that long-term limits to growth (build-out) are not factored in. Therefore, this
model is not the most appropriate for Collier County.
Exponential Model
An exponential trend is one that is increasing at a constant rate of change each year.
This compounding effect of a constant rate of growth can result in astronomical
increases in forecasted population in the long term. While this type of trend in growth
may exist for a period of 10 years or even 20 years, in fast growing communities it
cannot sustain itself for long terms. This model would be misleading for forecasting
long-term growth for Collier County.
3-11
Sigmoid Model
Many biological populations (like cities and counties) tend to grow at a rate over
time that simulates a logistic or Sigmoid Curve. In the case of the Sigmoid Curve,
population growth increases at an increasing rate over time until it reaches an inflection
point, then the increase in population growth is at a decreasing rate until it reaches
upper growth limit. One of the key variables in this growth equation is its upper
growth limit (build-out). The upper limit for large-scale counties such as Collier
County can be precisely defined by querying the parcel database and, then, calculating
the total number of housing units that can be built. The number of housing units can be
translated to population. The Sigmoid Model is a more scientifically sophisticated
variation of an extrapolation model and should be more accurate than other methods
for forecasting short and long-term growth for Collier County.
The Sigmoid Model, as illustrated in Figure 1, shows the upper limit, inflection
point and the rate of growth. For example, the population increases at an increasing
rate up to the inflection point, then the population increases at a decreasing rate to
build-out. It should also be noted that the greatest increase in population takes place
prior to and after the inflection point. The straight lines shown in that figure show what
happens if a portion of the growth curve is extrapolated as is often done in
unsophisticated population models. The results are an over or underestimate of growth
which results in the" costs" associated with such extrapolations.
Figure 1
Typical Sigmoid Curve
90,000
P 80,000
0 70,000
P
U 60,000
L 50,000
A
T 40,000
I 30,000
0
N 20,000
10,000
Overestimated
Growth
Upper Limit
Greatest
Population
Increase
Typical Erroneous Extrapolation
o I
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
YEAR
3-12
Historical Analysis of Growth in Comparative Counties
For Forecasting Future Populations
The Consultants researched several
counties and selected three that were
comparable to Collier County and
constructed actual growth curves. These
counties have build-out populations and
other key characteristics that are somewhat
similar to Collier County's. Simulation
modeling was done to determine if the
Sigmoid Model is relevant for Collier
County and which growth curves would
best simulate that which would be
constructed for Collier County. To do this,
VBR compared significant characteristics of
Collier County to other counties that have
striking similarities and were nearing build-.
out. The Florida counties of Broward,
Sarasota and Palm Beach were best suited
for this evaluation. (See Tables 1 and 2).
Figure 2
Location of Comparable Counties
~~t~.7~:~i:J~~?i:'~>:;;_. ( _
l " '.>. I 1_ \ cr. -,,- ~ -r,;:::L'.or- -,- ..-'_ .._. ,.~ 1
~"F---" ; L' '.." "-I.- ~.J\) .~'''';
"1.,,,",. ::J...- t:::::.:.:..f :7" . ....Lj/H
~ r, ~ """ . T'-.... __ LJ.:. r
'<!'j' \.".,..-.. .... -. ~\ T1 c'Y\
. ... 1. - ..... ". '....... ..~ i ,.. '. 'i..
(~6#~;'-; \" ~--r'r . '. '-:r,--t"\\
.'{./ 'C... ~'" ,:,,,.1 ~... p~
. ;' ..?~~)):~)~
__I.....:r.lir.~""
.......'.., I ..;- ,',1,
. )-'~L:'~~\ ~~. ~..~~
\;:E, -;~tl\
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\1 :.:.j. I ..... )
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~"'~) J
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'J ~
\.....lltI,. .~. ........ /
~\;).I '
\.""'-';"<'7::'
~;,,/
SourcE': ViUl BuskU"k, Ry{ft>J and ASR(....ciate.... IIlC.
Table 1
CIGM Historical Population of Comparative Counties
County Year
1930* 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2006 **
Gollier 2,883 5,102 6,488 15,753 38,040 85,971 152,099 251,377 314,649
Sarasota 12,440 16,106 28,827 76,895 120,413 202,251 277,776 325,957 369,535
Broward 20,094 39,794 83,933 333,945 620,100 1,018,200 1,255,488 1,623,018 1,787,636
Palm 51,781 79,989 114,688 228,106 317,909 535,409 863,518 1,131,184 1,274,013
Beach
*Began with 1930 Census because these counties were created between 1909 and 1923.
** Estimated population.
The growth of Collier County between 1980 and 2006 was 365 percent. By
comparison, the growth of Sarasota, Broward and Palm Beach counties was 183 percent,
176 percent and 238 percent respectively. While all of these are significant in terms of
population growth over the 26-year period of time, it should be understood that each of
these counties are at different places in their growth curve. For example, as indicated in
Table 2, Broward and Palm Beach counties are at 85 percent and 87 percent respectively
of their build-out, while Sarasota County is at about 51 percent. Therefore, since they
'\_H
have both passed their respective inflection points, the growth curve for Broward and
Palm Beach counties, should flatten further, over the next 7 to 11 years. The growth
curve for Sarasota should continue on its steepest slope and begin to flatten after it
reaches its inflexion point.
Broward and Palm Beach counties were included as valuable comparables because
they are beyond their respective inflection points and provide insights and lessons that
were important in the development of the CIGM. Specifically, they provide a historical
perspective of growth characteristics of nearly built-out counties.
Table 2
Characteristics of CIGM Comparative Counties Year 2000*
Counn Name
Facts Collier Sarasota Broward Palm Beach
Total Area in 2,305 725 1,319 1,993
Square Miles
Year Established 1923 1921 1915 1909
Avg. Household 2.39 2.13 2.45 2.34
Size (PPH)
Median Age 44.1 50.5 37.8 41.8
% Population 65+ 24.5% 31.5% 16.1% 23.1%
Per. Cap. Income $31,195 $28,326 $23,170 $28,807
in 1999 Dollars
Median Household $48,289 $41,957 $41,691 $53,701
Income in 1999 I
Dollars
# Housing Units 144,536 182,467 741,043 556,428
Beachfront? Yes Yes Yes Yes
Nearest Large Fort Myers Tampa Ft. Lauderdale and Miami Palm Beach
Airport Location
Build-out pop/yr. 950,223/2055** 725,000/2050/Land 2,117,038/2015/ 1,600,OOO/2019/Land Use Plan
based on Land use /Land Use Plan Use Plan, Zoning and Zoning
plan or Zoning? Property Appraiser
Current % of Build- 37% 51% 85% 87%
out pooulation
Park acreage/ % of 1,623 acres/ 25,558 acres/5% 14,023 acres/1.6% 6,107 acres/O.5%
total 0.1 %***
unincorporated
area
Sources: US. Census, Van Buskirk, Ryffel and Associates, Ine. and Planning Departments of the cited counties.
* All facts year 2000 except as noted.
** The year 2055 is forecasted to be ninety percent of build-out.
*** For consistency of application, the percentage of 0.1 percent does not include the state and federal
parklands such as The Everglades as part of park acreage, but does include its acreage when calculating
park acreage as a percent of the total unincorporated area. This could be_misleading if not understood.
Sixty-three percent of the County land area is in state and federal lands.
3-14
While no two counties are mirror images of one another, the ones that were selected
had key similarities to Collier County as shown in Table 2 above. Some of these
included:
· Incorporation year
. Persons Per Household
. Per capita income
· Water/sewer availability
. Year 2000 median age
· Year 2000 percentage of the population over 65
· Similar R2 values and similarity of coefficients
. Waterfront county
From the population growth of the various counties in Table I, VBR plotted and
performed a regression analysis on those individual historical populations that
produced a curve for each of them. From each curve, coefficients were developed
which to determine the total shape of the curve. If the coefficients of the growth curves
of the various communities were reasonably close to Collier County's then it would
validate the shape for Collier County. The coefficients for the counties were as follows:
Collier
Sarasota
Broward
Palm Beach
.069143992
.050979349
.073516697
.078490777
The R2 value is a coefficient of correlation, which is the deviation of a population
point off a perfect sigmoid curve. A value of 1.0 is a perfect curve with all points falling
on it and the closer a community's R2 value is to 1.0 the more reliable the curve. The
values for these communities were as follows:
Collier .8161
Sarasota .9493
Broward .9535
Palm Beach .9071
These vqlues were all close to 1.0 and were deemed reliable.
3-15
Figure 3 below shows graphically the actual growth curve for Collier County as it
approaches a build-out population of 950,223. The growth of Collier County has
followed the classic Sigmoid Curve.
Figure 3
Figure 4 below shows the composite growth curves of all 4 comparative counties.
Figure 4
3-16
The growth curve for Collier County in Figure 3 looks different as it is shown in
Figure 4. The explanation is that in Figure 4, which is a composite of four counties, all
have different maximum populations. In order to portray the curves of these counties
in one graphic in order to determine their general shape and accommodate all of their
maximum populations, the result is a skewing of the curves. All of the growth curves
are Sigmoid Curves and they are all accurate when compared to Table 1, that indicates
the time period and the population at that time. The growth curve for Collier County in
Figure 3 is its true curve, unencumbered by others.
Selection of Forecasting Method and Results of Forecast for Collier County
The Sigmoid Model has demonstrated its accuracy in forecasting population over
time for fast-growing counties such as Collier County. As indicated above, the growth
curves of comparable counties were all strong sigmoid curves. Further, the R2 values
and similarities of the coefficients support Sigmoid Curves. Other characteristics such as
year of incorporation of the counties, persons per household, per capita income, water
and sewer availability, median age, and population over 65, are not all exact but all
have similarities. Taken together, they would indicate that in these counties, the
Sigmoid Model is most appropriate for forecasting population over time.
The data collection and analysis of this study provided the information in support of
the selection and application of the Sigmoid Model to accurately forecast future
populations for Collier County. That information is as follows:
1. The estimated build-out permanent population of 950,223 persons as the upper
limit of growth independent of other data;
2. The historic population data from the u.s. Census;
3. The estimated population from the parcel data bank for 2007;
4. The traditional growth pattern that is common in support of future growth.
Forecasting Results
The Sigmoid Model that illustrates the forecasted results of the population, over
time for Collier County and applies the data outlined above is shown in Figure 1 above.
Table 3 shows the forecasted aggregate population of Collier County from 2000 to
the estimated 90 percent of build-out year of 2045, and on to build-out, in five-year
increments.
3-17
Table 3
Collier County Population Forecast to Build-out
Year Population
2000 251,377
2005 313,358
2006 314,649
2010 389,700
2015 470,890
2020 552,327
2025 629,355
2030 698,274
2035 756,937
2040 804,785
2045* 842,475
2050 871,354
2055 893,019
2060 909,014
2065 920,684
Build-Out 950,223
Source: Van Buskirk, Ryffel, and Associates, Inc.
* 90 percent of Build-out.
Findings
It may be concluded from the historic analysis of population growth of the Florida
counties studied and from other data in this section that the Sigmoid Curve best
represents the population growth of all four counties including Collier County over
time to build-out. Further, given the upper limit of population (build-out), the scientific
application of a Sigmoid Model can accurately forecast future population over the short
and long term in Collier County.
3-18
The Role of the Population Model in the CIGM
The CIGM is population driven, and all other aspects of the model begin with the
population over time to build-out in five-year increments. The role of the Population
Model is best understood by considering the differences between it and the CIGM and
its sub-models.
The Connection between the Population Forecast to Build-out Methodology, the
Interactive Growth Model, â„¢ and Sub-models
The Population Forecast to Build-out Model is the beginning step in the development
of an Interactive Growth Model. The resultant product is a forecast of the aggregate
population, in five-year increments to build-out and serves as a key input to an
Interactive Growth Model and thereafter to any requested sub-models.
One of the end products of the Interactive Growth Modelâ„¢ is the distribution of the
aggregate population in five-year increments to build-out. The population distribution
is by sub-areas of the community such as Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZ's) in Collier
County's case. Moreover, the variables that were built into the CIGM were those that
are important to the County. With the basic CIGM completed, it can be used later to
develop "what if?" growth management scenarios. These can be used to demonstrate
the effect of alternative land use decisions as input to short and long term budgetary
considerations, to update the County's Land Use Plan as it relates to the study area, and
as input to create additional sub-models in the future.
Section 4
Disaggregation of the Study Area
To properly manage the planning processes for an area as large and complex as this
one, there was a need to divide it into smaller areas. The most logical division was
Traffic Analysis Zones. These are areas used by the Metropolitan Planning Organization
(MPO) as their basis for transportation modeling and collaterally as a basis of
recommendation for distribution of federal funding of road projects. Thus, the use of
TAZs serves to provide multiple benefits beyond its use in the CIGM. Map 2 below
shows the location, identification number and extent of the 172 T AZs that comprise the
study area.
3-19
Map 2
Disaggregation of the Study Area into T AZs
I 388 I TAZ with 10 Number
o Study Area
"c.._ County Boundary
---- Coastline
- Major Roads
43.::,
x:c N
~ !
h:: T'::'
fl\:
co,
i~ .L
"72
I~,\-
.,",..~.".J?J_..",... M... .,.".~.,,__._
"...._.._,-~'
F,,,
I
/
This map IS for plannrng purposes only and does not represent any commITment by Collier County as to Its
policies or resources There were several sources of data used both pUblic and pervate and Collier County
cannot attest as to ItS accuracy orvalidity While every effort was made to accurataly depict the Information on
thiS map. errors and omissions may occur. Therefore Collier County cannot be held liable for InCidents that
may result due to Impruper use of the Information on thiS map. Please contact the Collier County Comprehensive
Planning Department With any questions regarding thiS map or to review the data used to create it
Sotu'ce: Van Buskirk, Ryffel and Associates, rnc.
3-20
Se~tion 5
Population Distribution to Build-out
Table 4
Study Area Population Forecast
2007-Build-out*
Year Population
2007 79568
2010 89910
2015 117916
2020 153631
2025 191329
2030 230283
2035 269814
2040 308560
2045 343071
2050 371180
2055* 392562*
2060 407970
2070 418623
2075 430524
2080 433628
Build-out 442537
Source: Van Buskirl<, Ryffel, and Associates, Inc.
*90% of Build-out
In the interest of a clearer understanding, the population forecast output data shown
above, was converted to visual representations that are more easily interpreted. By way
of example, Maps 3 to 12 shows the population distribution and intensity in the years
2007, 2010, 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, 2060, 2070, 2080, and Build-out, respectively for the
entire study area. Likewise, Maps 13 to 22 show the RFMUD and GGE areas and Maps
23 to 32 show the RLSA and Immokalee areas during those same time intervals.
The various degrees of green shadings on these maps represent the percentage of
build-out population of each T AZ at the particular 10-year interval. This was done in 10
percent increments with greater populations shown in darker shading.
3-21
Map 3
Population Distribution, Year 2007
Collier Interactive GroVt'th Model ~---...I
Year 2007 -'
Population: 79,568 ~~__
:..~L _J- ~I I
I__L_-" -- -../'
I
1
-"
O~~
-c.""'Y8&omdory
e....".
~f
Percent BuUd-oul
0.00 10.00 IQIIIliKlOl ~..lIII_I(l,ll'"oo
IUlll ~DO_~Jl' ~D.DlI_100' 100011
~.Ol.!O.N_._U'.lD1lI1
3a.lll.40Jlt_70.01.U.OO foIRP"."dC......""~OI\.....,
Soo,.,.,'" \"""r,.,<I:ukfic'tJ..I"",'A,.,.,,,,,.,l<-<.li..-
MapS
Population Distribution, Year 2020
Collier Interactive Growth Model
Year 2020
Population: 153,631
~
~~~--- N
:.."U).. J J
II"..,
I
I
I
I
I
i -"
,0""'"
'-';~'O'.IIlIlIO)'
co...".
";
OD01000:iillll...U1l5000.100"D.DD
'~.>>1 ~1le_~.D1 '000.10.111 1II1l.Dll
2'a-'l'.3U._IoG.lIl.1Q,OO
):l,Q1-.a_<Hl_~.Dl.tGOQ NI\P.......clCal,...,..\I........'
~lI;\\...\.iII,6l\,1""1'r.\.IM_INl$~".ll.lf
Map 4
Population Distribution, Year 2010
I Collier Interactive Growth Model ?~J
I Year 20101
Population: 89,910 .~. ' . ,
". ..~-
I I N
, .' I " I
"J~:_...~_J "
.'-~ --~
0.......
-- t.-...tJ....-y
c......
~,.'
PeruntBulld.oul
~OO-IUlO _ IM1.~D,OO_IIl.o1.SIlOO
1Il0'.:lt,DO_.Jll.50>>O_IiO,lII..OO.1KI
2lI01.)O.GO_..O'.7U1G
I'Lal'~O_._1Cl,OI_IO_QO NAP"_<IC.........-..;...........
'iou.,...V.w.f;n.l-,.l<,r,\.!IOI.""t..o..n..,....u..w.
Map 6
Population Distribution, Year 2030
Collier Interactive Growth Model
Year 2030
Population: 230,283
~
,:
-"
0.....
-'.'-"'"111.......01)'
,...ltft.
l'
f:/
.k
't''' :.'1 L_~.
E:~~$€~~;-,;~
, ~erc.n19ulld-01Jt
QOO.l0_00_",.QI.SQ.QQ.IO.Q\.!Q,OO
\Q,OI-2UHl_!>O,QI.50U.'llIJ)I.'OHIQ
;Jl!JI.~Ug_'ll.al.70,Og
:IO.Ol-..,GO.,0,O\.IO,GO MlPl\...dC....."1IIian}lfn.
~""-. 1'""Buol,;,d< RvUr-lIll\,j~<>Oill....lu.:
3-22
Map 7
Population Distribution, Year 2040
Collier Interactive Growth Model
Year 2040
Populaaon: 308,560
~.C,:
~
~~
CJIIl"AUl
-CounI~a.....-v
-c..._
ql
PereentBulld-out
UO.II.DII _~.Dl-'U'_IC.Ol''IQ.1I'II
'll.Ol-:nI,lU.JII.llI-...DO_IO.O,oHlO.1II
,"olO.ol.:JQ.D._..DI-.o.oO
g.A..U.II._fD.D"IO.OD
s..urr~ "'all fI..Il''1lk r,rt/~l ;,,,d l."~"'~l~ L...
Map 9
Population Distribution, Year 2060
Collier Interacllve Growth Model
Year 2060
Populallon: 407,970
~
"
~,.
0"'"
_Ql.....y.o~
--- CMdM
{,l
PI":""' Bulld-Out
qltCll0.llll_~D1'OOO_IIlI.Dl.oDQ
10.01-20.. _~,01'U,OO_to.ol'100,GIl
~_.,31.01.30.._Rl,DI.10,OO
i81l!!>>.OI.4Il.1lll_llI,D'.IO.oo IiflPAlrldClIlll",vlti..AHII
St>lD"<,,-V,..,SllsJ.ld:.RviioeltmdAUCIC.1lts "",",
MapS
Population Distribution, Year 2050
Collier Interacave Growth Model
Year 2050
Populallon: 371,110
~..
0"'''''
-~""",--v
Co......
Pere.nt8ulld-Out
OOO.'....._4lI.111.!O,I>>_...".H.IlO
lMl.a.oe.,o.o1.IGOfI_IlUII-'OD.1IO
:IIl.oI.UJlO_.lI.Ol.10,OD
1I.o1.4D.GII_nl.o,.ao.oo NIlP...W'ldC.....~IIi""""...
S<>,.......V."'r..III:ui:.R\"1l~1"".1.....J.<<>.1I... b1.:
Map 10
Population Distribution, Year 2070
Collier Interactive Growth Model
Year 2070
Population: 418,623
~~
D~
-~IJ.~
c.....n.
,i
Perunl Bufld..out '.
UO.IO'OO_.jIJ.OI.5II.QO..Ul...'OO
fII.Ql.20..._1O.0t.MO,0&_IO.bl.1I1O.IIO
lOA"~U._41l.01.jI.tlO
1M; lU'.4D.ot_1D.lII+u.oo I~RPAlndC",",IVIllI"'''''''
.",,,,,,,,, \.....fllUl.....kr.rll...1II."IA."'-I.'I~..1....
3-23
Map 11
Population Distribution, Year 2080
Collier Inleracllve GroWlh Moclel
Year 2080
Population: 433,628
0""""
-Countyl........ory
--.eo.......
~~ .
Percent Bulkl"()ut
~llO'la.ID_IO.oI'MI.IIIl_IO_01'9GOO
10.Jll.:!ll.llO.._Ol''''__.l'G,OI.,oooa
2D.OT.:tIl_000.a.Ol_1D.DO
Imr~k IO,01-.tll,OO.1OCI.IO.00
s""",, \'.Illl\uI:mt.!:::'tld.....dA..."'i.>l~'_l.l\I:
Map 12
Population Distribution, Year Build-Out
ColUerlnleraclfve GroWlh Model
Year Build-Out
Populalfon: 442,537
,.
, ,
~..
0......,
-c.""'Yll_ory
c.._.
'1;
Percent Bl,llld..out
Doo,ua_KlOlUOO.IlI.11I'OOCl
lGo'::e.Gt_~alI1iIlO'_1IO"'100GO
!Il.Jll.:lUIO_Rl.o'.ruo~
)IUI,'Ula _llI.~l.IG.~C '~RPA"",dC"'Urval;on"'."
-;"1lI~. v." !l...~...t: r.,'f:j..l .....1 .4...",~......, 11\(
The followin2 maps show the RFMUD and GGE areas.
Map 13
Population Distribution, Year 2007
Collier Inleractlve Growth Model
RFMUD and GGE
Year 2007
Population: 34,919
(,
;.,
1<",
-,
.... .
.. :",. ' ' ~..
.....~..?~.
00<"'" ..,,~~r. ...
=::..~ '~:~:~;~.
Pet~em Builct.Q1It , ,'. ~
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IO_01.20.oc_to.oll_iMO.toJll_1OC,DO
!Oo'_~l>Il_".o,.,.o_""
. JllOl.tO,OO.70.81-8GOn I.jfIPA...dC""W/"."""...
-oL.:-_
I
j i
, i I
---=-------.-5=.--- I
---... --.-..--,...... ..-
_......._-----~. ..--..
...-.-----..-..--.... -..
===-.e::!"_~==.::."'=_~--==.::~- i
::;"m.".l:-iUlfl".Iar1'.[:xtl<<l1lll(\""",,~.]ur
Map 14
Population Distribution, Year 2010
Collier Inleraetive GroWlh Model
RFMUD ancl GGE
Year 2010
Population: 39,701
I
J
I
I
~
"
'.",,~
I
I
I .... ..':~,.
,01'1'101l.O ..~-: .l>,/..~.
;-U~IEINn:lary 'f, ~.
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Perc,n' Blllld<lUl
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lD_n'.lo,oo.joQ.DI.iO,OO.OO.o"",o.(IlI
;lIl.Pl-l~.0lI_IiO.Ol.700ll
3O.01'~IOO_70.01.811.~~
I '.
St>""e V.,U B....bIl:. P..d.~I.....-I A""'<'I.,t~, I...
3-24
I!: 0
" " 0:
"\ ~ .I, ~ "
,".g :,~;! ~
it,
Map 15
Population Distribution, Year 2020
Collier Interactive Growth Model
RFMUD and GGE
Year 2020
Populatton: 58,633
f;'.
"-50\ "'.,~!...
d......, ':,..ff.'
-'~""~~" ., '.: f:;.
ON"n. -",.'~l'~
Percen' BuUd..oUl, ';_,'"
O,CO-1C-OO_.Uf-SUO_Ill,OloN.GD
1O.01-2G,00.,II.01.,,__..oI.,0000
2ll1l1-JO.oo_1O.01.7C.DI
X1,Dl..-aOO.UI.Ol.,ua
$<I"'..... Vau Jl,ul:id;,r.:.vfirl "",I _~"""'at~~, Jnr
Map 17
Population Distribution, Year 2040
Collier Interactive Growth Model
RFMUD and GGE
Year 2040
Population: 90,247
,F.
"
,'/
(1',
.' '1 ~
'::/" ,;.
Al.SA. "'j..~'"
d....~ "'".....f.4'
==:....~ "\ <....Ir-
.....'"
Plrunl Bullct-out \ .....:.~ Jr.
G.0CI-1C.lID_.w..l..iMl.lO_...GI_tG.oG
IIUI-lO."_ KlAI.M_ _.Ul.\OIUIO
,~j 2llJl-IUO_....I.lIlJlO
IM30_01...0,DV_1ll.01.1MI.1IIb
s..'IIT~' v"", U....h.-l.:, r.J'tl..1 oriel ..l._"",'I~. fur
Map 16
Population Distribution, Year 2030
Collier Inleractlve Growth Model
RFMUD and GGE
Year 2030
Population: 76,954
,
'(
.! \
',..,
ff',
1 ,~
I'ILSA - ",,!It;.
0......, ,~:r.;f. l
-C'8IIrltylollllHr) 1 ,: 'If-.
CM.... '.~ 'f;. ~ .
P.rcenlBulld.out :i:!
'-/Ill_lUll _.....~1.l\lI,GII_..0'_N.n
lU1.~G.IJt_<<I.Ol.5CI.H _ ..OI'lllll.OO
2Ul.JO...._tll.ll1.111.110
3O.DI..0.....7G0II1.1O.00
Map 18
Population Distribution, Year 2050
Collier Interactive Growth Model
RFMUD and GGE
Year 2050
Population: 99,516
,~
~ I ~~:.
1!,
.,~ t
':'~~f~
CJ"M~ ",~.r-1!.
-=:........, .~ .: 'ir-If"
( .
P.rcenl Bulld4;>ut :- : 'J;l
0.110-111.00 _...,.oHWI.o....Ol.IIIM1
ID.Ol-~.lllI_IO.o1.".oo.to.ll"10G~
>>.OI-3U'0.taJll.,D.1IIl
B'!tlIOJIl..U10..OJH..c.oo
Sol'lro". \'~""...I:id, F,I.a.l iIIld A.....,i~Io'$.11lt
3-25
Map 19
Population Distribution, Year 2060
Collier Interactive Growth Model
RFMUD and GGE
Year 2060
Population: 105,219
.
. ,
1;7g
~'"
1".
DflFI.I,W :~'~:'~I
"""",C_,hu""lIy" 1-
C,,"no I :~-'~'i:r'
Pue.nt Bllild..oLfl ~ ~. ."r
D,DD.ID,DOB...ot-50lNI.IUI1.'UI
IO_Dl'ZOOll_SO.oI'5G-OG_~JlI.IOD..
::ll.Ol.lII00.'Ul.70MI
)(l.1I1.UOO.7Il.ll1.....0
s..U1w\'..u'f;I.<I<ill,P_'.fI.l.....t..._l~.h"-
Map 21
Population Distribution, Year 2080
Collier Interactive GroVllth Model
RfMUD and GGE
Year 2080
Population: 109,954
.,
~'..~
.,
f'
,~ "f':',~'..,.
c::ll'l'1oM) \:. ......,t i.
=~~ ~'~\.;~'
P..lrfn18ulld.oUl l' '."'f
IlJlQ.10.......Dl.5CIJ11l..........
10.01':lUll.'IUI1.'UO.1O.D1.100"
'2Il.lll-}O.DII_.UU.1C1.0II
G1l:r.:rJ<l"".O,OO_TII.(11'~"II..
s,.1Il\.-.;\--aUe\lSI,ui;..ryud....u....~\ln..lw-
Map 20
Population Distribution, Year 2070
Collier Interactive Growth Model
RFMUD and GGE
Year 2070
Population: 108,311
.,
, ,
~.~
~"
0......
-~rl~""..,
c.....~.
s.....,... \",," f.l1I.~od.R\,tl.l.II"1 A"'D';;~", Ill,
Map 22
Population Distribution, Year Build-Out
Collier Interactive Growth Model
RFMUD and GGE
Year Build-Out
PopulaUon: 114,451
0...... ":'?:(.r,
-~=:-"\ . .J'r.
Percln,Bullcl-Out -....y
0,00-10.l10........"'..._..'OI_...
ID01.1(l,lICI_ IUI-W"_."'.'OMll
3l0'.lO_0ll_.U1_10,H
iSiXl.o,.O_DO_1Uj.aailll
Sonn.'P' Yu fIo"~'lI'l r.,.b.l.... ;\."o.,"'~ I...
3-26
The followin2 maps show the RLSA and Immokalee areas.
Map 23
Population Distribution, Year 2007
Collier Interactive Growth Model
RLSA and Immokalee
Year 2007
Populallon: 22,917
~..
~'~~I
I
----~
"
.
~
I
"'rcem Bulld...out
lUllI-10M _.j(!.lI1-r.a.llD_IIO.01.IO.llCI "-1I~
lD.Ol-lIUIO. '1UII-M.OO.ICI.o1. 140'" CJI'I'Ml..ll
,..:lO.II1.~'.ao_".o1.7I.GO _C''''Ul11...~
":;~~ 3lIJ11.~It.lllI_71UI_.DJlO NI'lP,I..ndC....wYlllion......
=:.~=-=~5.~~':t:E'SR
~az.7:;::,~"t...::.r::t."*:=5F~
S"lIl'-' V;a" l';1l.lad" f:.vtld ...,,1 A""n.at.s.lt~.
Map 25
Population Distribution, Year 2020
Collier Interactive Growth Model
RLSA and Immokalee
Year 2020
Population: 60,208
ili
I
Perunl Bulld.ollt
Il.lJll.IO.Otl_~J:ll.r.a,lHI_lIIl.llI_"'OO II:LS""
IDJll.211,Dt_!oIl.DI.iCUlll.'IU'.I,D.llG ClI'lF~1u)
::::.r ~.D\->>.Dt_to.l)1"UI' -t....~'t6""""-'Y
_JlI.o,..60,OO.7e.01.ta.oO 1.I'lAA...clC.......""'"...........
~~i€k~~~~:.
~...."..,\.""lIl\.I.arl;.r:lIli.."",L..ISO''t>tft II...
Map 24
Population Distribution, Year 2010
Collier Interactive Growth Model
RLSA and Immokalee
Year 2010
PopUlation: 25,538
~.).:~: i J
" " -""'---
I I
rl.M.'(~^,;.l: .<(1 J I
I
.
v.
I
P,rclIl'It8ullcl-Qut
UO.1D,OO_-lOAI.n.o...lI.Ol-tUo II:LSA
lo.ol'20,OO_SU1.40,U../UI1.100,llll c:JRFMl.O
JlI.0'.:HIAO_1IO.01.14JlD -CG\IIIlyIOUl\IIltlI
3O.01.41l,OO.70.Dl_ta.OD ...RP.....nllC.....,......OIl.......
~~~~~~~-:.
~.....~. \.~,,~u.un, r:~ltd....dA"',"ut..,h".
Map 26
Population Distribution, Year 2030
Collier Interactive Growth Model
RLSA and ImmokaJee
Year 2030
Population: 109,638
I
PtlcenlBulld.out
o.pO.lO'O._40.01.~D.fO_..lI1.fO.lIG IILSA
lCl.OI-20__tD.G1_WAIO_IO.II1_10UD c::IN"loIl.D
lIUI.l0.0._fMUI.7UlD -e-J)'ltMlMt<y
m Xl,1Il-tO_0lI_7CI,GI.IUD NIl""'.rodCOIl____Ar...
i
~~~~~~~~~:. i
~nn'" \-",..,1\""",1:. Ryli.l ",,,l A....'~11.J, '"'
3-27
Map 27
Population Distribution, Year 2040
Collier Interactive Growth Model
RLSA and Immokalee
Year 2040
Population: 168,248
O.DI.IMO_-IO,Dl_S(l,DO_to.ol_f(),OO 1'lL~
ID.Dl.~OOO_IO.oj.5Q..oD_.;J,II".lDO,ODDIlFMl.O
~.DI.3MQ_~.O'-iD,0II -c~e_ory
:llI.Ol-40,CIII _ l(I.O~ -1lO,OO ~1't~"',""dCcn...~-wIi.",I>I....
';(>..""" V~.. E",,~...k P.yfitl """ A""",,"l.Ok< hl<
Map 29
Population Distribution, Year 2060
Collier Interactive Growth Model
RLSA and Immokalee
Year 2060
Population: 246,543
D.n_'O_DD _-IO.".IWl-"'_..</..H.110 !Ol,.v.
IDD\.2DO~_1ILDI.~.IIll_ID~I"IllI_ll<l CJ"'~
:!OD).lOOO_ill,01.711,OQ _COUI\Iy.......a.ary
i r r;Ei Xlfl1..000_:r.,O,.tlUII NRPA.nde__bonku.
So,=,.. v..., ~lSl:irl:. Jl),if~l "",\ Avooatn. J",
I
=--=~=-~='t:'!-:9E:_ I
:?;:;;:'iii~~~T,,",,:=1"'- I
Map 28
Population Distribution, Year 2050
Collier Interacllve Growth Mod~
RLSA and Immokalee
Year 2050
Population: 217,620
ODO,'UO_-IGlIl.MI.oO.IO,Ql.to.llD "'$A
lQD'.ID~_5UI.6G_DO_!O.o'.10ll.OO c:JIIFUI..O
:'::::::::::::::::: ~PA'MCon=::..--v ~~~~~~~:.
S",m"~, '-.", Bm\:i.tl. R>'il'"l.."t A~I.... J",
Map 30
Population Distribution, Year 2070
Collier Interactive Growth Model
RLSA and Immokalee
Year 2070
Population: 260,123
! Ptr..enl BlllhH>ld
O.0ll-lD.lllI_40.o1-5GJID_.,.oI_t.lJlO M.$A
IDD'.lD.DU_~_DI.IUIO_M_Ol.'OlI.OO c:J~
2Il.ll1-JnI'O_IiO.Dl.1D.OO -COlIIlI\iB_aoy-
'~iU;' ..Ql-.0.Ol_ llI.Il1.ID,OO ..RAAIl'IdC..._........,"'..
=;:.~$=i.7;!;,:a.~!:V'.=:&
=-F&-~-::.~.::~;:~=-
"io~>"P. \.~" 1'....brL R'".,... ",...1 ,.\..,,,;......,. h,,-
3-28
Map 31
Population Distribution, Year 2080
Collier Interacllve Growth Model
RLSA and Immokalee
Year 2080
Population: 266,656
Pllrl;:lntllulld.out
0,00-10.00 _~.OI-5II.o0_..at_'Uo "IIA
IO,Ol-20.ot_5lI.Q1-6II.".,o.nl-10l1_OC DWMIXI
:l.IL01_10,PO.4I1I.ol.n.llll _Counlyl.unclory
)Q,01.41,OC.70_01_n.OO IiRP....hdC""_"'8IIon.......
SOtU'f.., \'.... a........". r:."I/.I;1I1<1 .ol,....l~;\l... I,..
Map 32
Population Distribution, Year Build-Out
Collier Interacllve Growth Model
RLSA and Immokalee
Year BulJd-Out
Populallon: 269,759
P..unt Bulld.out
O,OI.lUO.40.lII.IO,OlI_IOAI.tO,Oo .."Sbt.
10,O\.noO_IIO.lII.'U1._lO,ol.looan c::JN't.llQ
Zll,O'.30,OO_IlD.lI.fO.oO -C~""hd-.y
lO,Ol.40.oo_70.01.U,OO NRP...dC""..NIIlj...........
Sonl~.- \,,,.. Bnl'f:nk r.\.tI.1 .IId A..-o,,,,.m Ill':
3-29
Section 6
Existing (Baseline) and Build-out Land Use Inventory
The Collier County Future Land Use Element (FLUE) was the basic tool for
forecasting future development. Over recent years, the County's planning staff
developed a series of growth management tools including studies, strategies, overlays
and area master plans that further subdivided the FLUE into the following sub-areas:
· Rural Fringe Mixed Use District
· Rural Lands Stewardship Area
· Immokalee Area Master Plan
· Ave Maria Town Master Plan
· Golden Gate Estates Master Plan (Estates)
· Mixed Use and Interchange Activity Center Sub districts
· Davis Blvd Mixed Use District
· Industrial District
· Urban Residential Fringe Sub district
· Urban Residential Sub district
· Existing Zoning Consistent with FLUE
· Rural Settlement Area Sub district
· Residential Density Band
· South Golden Gate Estates NRP A
· Conservation Designation
· Crew Natural Resources Protection Area (NRP A)
· Corkscrew Swamp Sanctuary
When taken together, these districts and sub-districts were intended to cover all of
the land in the study area and its potential use for future development. The
development of the Collier Interactive Growth Model (CIGM) took these studies into
account and divided the geographic areas they represent, into T AZ' s so that they could
be queried for a build-out analysis.
Where it was logical to do so, VBR further consolidated these areas into the final
categories that were used throughout this study (shown in Tables 5 and 6 below), and
included:
· Urban Residential Subdistrict
· Urban Residential Fringe Subdistrict
· Urban Coast Fringe Subdistrict
· Rural Settlement Area
· Rural Lands Stewardship Area (RLSA)
3-30
Map 33
Interactive Growth Model Study Area
Future Land Use Map
Collier Cou nty
n AG"'ICUI.T\ll!,lIolIFlVftA.LMllC~O UU OISrJII'CT
RUIUlINCUI5TR1A1.D1S'f1IiIICT
RUl'l.lllS~mEMENTARI!c"CISTl'lICT
o IItI.HUl. FI\INGE MIXED USE DlSTftlCT
REct[MNGL.ANPS
5&1D1HGlAND$
>>"~-,1 NeUTRAl
C"COR;CUl.1VRAll JIIUI'tAl Cll!!$IGr..-.TlON
AGRICULTURAL I RURAL MIXED USE DISTRICT
--_.CQIlS1"AI."lIGI(Io4I.2A"C~
..". TIUo""ICCOl>lGESTI~N90LJNO,lo.RV
DJJFl:PORTN:llSE"J'~
a~1Uft4RE9OUIlCEP~TEcrlOt...JlE;o(IffIPA.
: OO'YSllCREllOI\1E.......yTJlI..NOtEREOEVaOPIllENTOVEIl(..O.V
c:J RUF'..:..L L'NOS S'T'f:W,l.R(:5ttIP AAe.<.CVERlJo'l'
~\JR8,jotl.RVfl.l.l.FP.INGETRAN5t7IO~jZOl'EOVERL.Al1
c::lNORlH BEllE MEloOE OVEFIL4Y
CO~'SER'/ATI:lI'loeGI:;;N...TIC>N
1~'CORI'OR.ATeo.oF!E.>.$
'LI
'--, .-
1;- -- "
"
~
~
o
.',
"
'"
x
"
"
-----l
\ \,
~ \
\ \.
'--------- j ---'"
; "
:j
Source: Collier County Comprehensive Planning Department
3-31
· Rural Fringe Mixed Use District (RFMUD)
· Mixed Use Residential Subdistrict
. Industrial
· Immokalee
· Golden Gate Estates
· Golden Gate Estates Natural Resources Protection Area (G.G.E. NRP A)
· Conservation
Table 5 indicates the results a consolidated current existing inventory. The data
sheets of the current inventory by individual TAZs may be found in the Collier County
Comprehensive Planning Department in the document entitled CIGM Technical
Appendix.
Similarly, the results of a consolidated build-out inventory are shown in Table 6
based on the limits of the Future Land Use Element (FLUE) of the Growth Management
Plan. The data sheets of the build-out inventory by the individual TAZs may also be
found in the Collier County Comprehensive Planning Department in the same
document.
The amount of data from which the CIGM was created, numbers in an estimated
over one million parts. This data is now in the hands of the County Comprehensive
Planning Department and from it, all the visuals contained in this report were created.
This data is in tabular and spreadsheet form. It is necessary to recognize that as the
variables change, the population forecast and various distributions will change. The
CIGM is therefore, not a static model, but rather a dynamic one.
3-32
TableS
CIGM 2007 e..eline[Exisling Conditions)
Moo", P"~..rtoy
Urbtln UrlIon UrlIIn RUN. RLSA RfMUD Mind Indultrll. Immobile. Golden 1M.!. e.n......lon Tola'
R..ld R..iI. eooll SotU,ml n\ Un <loti NRPA
SUbdlotriol F''''" Frin,. A... Rllld. E,Iot..
Subdlltrtct Subdlotrkl Subdl.trtct
(MRS)
Dolt
Aer.. 1308 12::;85 17124 2804 208563 88302 524 1165 16811 54241 S0048 641114 1094388
- 647 802 903 1115 193 983 270 0 2791 10614 92 144 18554
IIIIF 933 2744 5755 0 122 533 683 0 3362 0 0 514 14646
SfINFT..., 1580 3546 6658 1115 315 1516 953 0 6153 10814 92 558 33200
ilEllm. 0 0 I 1 0 0 0 0 4 3 0 0 9
Behoof.
EI'm. Au.. 10 12 67 55 154
'Mid. 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 4
School.
MId.Acnl 92 80 23 76 271
'Hlth 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2
Schul.
High Acr.. 0 80 44 0 124
Communit)' 0 0 0 17 0 0 0 0 63 30 0 0 110
PIlrksAcru
fI....n Aer.. 4 15 SO 0 0 61 5 0 162 8 0 12 317
Rlla.Ff 10081 28733 234590 0 0 235532 67475 0 1093133 40607 0 12046 1722197
Olllu Aen. 8 9 12 2 0 2 0 0 34 0 0 0 67
otftce ff 24321 4001 54645 8021 0 18618 0 0 203723 0 0 0 313329
CommercII' 12 24 62 2 0 63 5 0 196 8 0 12 384
rotol
Aerts
Co ",m.reit I 34407 32734 289235 8021 0 254150 67475 0 1296856 40607 0 12046 2035526
rolal sF'
Indultrlll 11 34 9 28 SO 13 1 30 117 4 0 0 297
A.c.n.
Indu.trlolSF 58108 372671 421 10776 68273 11971 3959 221292 1203213 363 0 0 1951047
Hoter 0 0 0 0 0 0 52 0 8 0 189 0 249
Moftl
UnH.
Ho'" 0 0 0 0 5 0 6 0 1 0 10 0 22
Moh.
Aens
Ho1.lIMotel 15711 2206 56958 74875
Fr
'FI" 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 2 3 0 0 9
S.flont
fh Station 0 2 1 0 0 4 1 0 2 10 0 0 20
Aerts
FI" Slo1Ion 0 12949 4639 0 0 3357 7726 0 14833 30035 0 0 73539
FT'
'Shtrill 1 1
Sflltlon.
Sherif 3 3
a"1Ion
Au..
Shuff 38000 38000
81It1on
".
Abbe.rvlltJanc Used in rlbla Above Ind Elsewh.rt
#SF
IIMF
SFIMF Tot.1
#Elem. S<:hools
#Mid. Schools
M-iigh Schools
Retail FT2
Office FT'
Commercial FT2
Number of single family
Number of multifamily
SIlgle family and multifamily lotal unils
Number ol e1emenlary schools.
Number ol middle schools
Number of high schools.
Rela il building floor area
Office building floor area
Combined retail and office-floor area
3-33
Table 6
CIGM Build-out
IItl!or PlonlO.,,~y
Urltln Urlton Urlton RUI'II RUlA RfMUO MIr.d Induotrlol Immokll" Oold.n O.O.E. ConslI'Yltlon Toll 1
Roold. RIIld. Cool! Sltalmlnt Uoo Olio NRPA
Bubdlobi.t Fring. Frlng. Ar.. Ruld. Est.te,
Bubdlotrkt Subdistrict Sub dlotrkt
(MRS)
0011
Aor.. 1308 '2385 17124 2804 203589 88302 524 1165 21784 54241 50048 641114 1094388
- 2280 4825 4704 3548 48343 12435 385 0 10393 25382 127 597 112957
- 1712 4548 10415 0 53800 6680 919 0 10345 0 0 514 8B859
8fllllf Totol 3992 9373 15119 3548 102143 19115 1304 0 20738 25392 127 1111 201816
IllElom. 0 0 I 1 7 3 0 0 4 3 0 0 19
8.hoo"
Eltm. Acr.. 0 0 10 12 105 45 0 0 67 65 0 0 304
ilMld. 0 0 1 I 7 3 0 0 I 1 0 0 14
Schools
Mld..lcr.. 0 0 92 80 217 93 0 0 23 76 0 0 581
'"Ugh 0 0 0 1 7 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 11
Schools
High .lcn. 0 0 0 80 '20 120 0 0 44 40 0 0 704
Community 0 0 0 17 604 90 0 0 63 30 0 0 B04
PtiriuActlC
Rdlll ACt" 15 144 46 14 351 76 . 18 335 23 5 8 1028
RollA Ft' 162806 1571427 495495 155727 3822390 828185 .2471 138198 3652506 254826 56628 84942 11198187
OffiCI Acre. 8 78 25 8 199 41 2 10 181 13 3 4 554
ottIc. Ft' 87865 846153 266805 B3B53 205B210 445946 22869 106722 196673. 137214 30492 45738 6029793
CommercII' 23 222 70 22 540 117 6 28 516 36 8 12 1582
Totol
Acres
Commerclll 250407 2417580 76 2300 239580 5880600 1274130 65340 304920 5619240 392040 87120 1306BO 172279BO
Total Sfl
'ndulI'ill 11 61 14 2B 350 145 0 812 1231 0 0 0 2652
Aerts
InduotriolSF' 143748 797148 1B2952 365904 4573800 1894860 0 10611216 16086708 0 0 0 34656336
HoloW 0 0 0 0 1300 150 52 0 31 0 lB9 0 1722
Mot.1
Unls
Hotd 0 0 0 0 43 5 6 0 1 0 10 0 65
Mot.1
Acrts
!Wir. Station. 0 I 1 0 6 4 I 0 2 3 0 0 18
Fire Btlflon 0 2 1 0 18 13 1 0 2 9 0 0 46
Acres
Fit. 0 12B49 4639 0 240000 15357 7726 0 14833 30035 0 0 109539
S"Uon
n>
oSh.ri1I 2 3
S.tion.
Shorlf 6 9
Stafi.n
Acr..
Shorlf 78000 114000
SlItion
Fr
Abberviltions: Und in Tltbl, AbovI Ind EIStwhcre
#SF
~F
SFIMF ToIal
HElem. SGh0015
mJlid. Schools
#High ScMools
Retail FT2
OfliGe FT2
Commercial fT2
Number 01 Single family
Number 01 mulliamtly
Sing(e family and muttifamily tolal un its
Number of elementary scho~s
Number of middle schools
Number of high schools
Re1:i1il buildinglloor ar~
OIlfGe building 'Ioor area
Combined retail and oJlice floor area
3-34
Section 7
The Sub-Models
One of the unique features of the IGMTM is the ability to create a myriad of sub-
models and to incorporate those that are of importance to a specific community. In
Collier County's case, the seven sub-models below were selected. These sub-model
results are based on current levels of service.
The objective of the sub-models was to forecast the timing and spacing of facilities
(schools, parks, commercial centers, industrial parks, law enforcement and fire and Ems
stations.) and to determine if sufficient land has been allocated in accordance with the
guidelines of the Future Land Use Element (FLUE) of the Growth Management Plan.
The strategy is to optimize the opportunities in the planning and development of the
Towns, Villages and Hamlets of the Rural Land Stewardship Areas (RLSA) and the
Villages of the Rural Fringe Mixed Used District (RFMUD) as well as the Activity
Centers.
It should be noted in the Map series 34 through 57 below that only the baseline year
of 2007 and the build-out year for a particular sub-model are shown and they are
graphic representations of the locations of various facilities at those two time intervals.
They are graphic representations of the information in Tables 7 through 12. For those
interested, the maps of the intervening years may be found in the CIGM Technical
Appendix located at the County's Comprehensive Planning Department.
School Facility Sub-Model
This sub-model was developed to determine the optimal placement and number of
future school and plant facilities to meet the needs of the population over time. The
CIGM determined the optimal spatial distribution of future schools based on zones,
time, and demographics. The supply model was in accord with local levels of service for
school plants by type and enrollment.
Figure 5 below indicates the student population at elementary, middle and high
schools from the year 2007 to build-out.
3-35
Figure 5
Public School Population 2007 and Build-Out
90000
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
o
Elementary School
Middle School
High School
Total School
Population
Source: Van Buskirk, Ryffel and Associates, Inc.
i 1iil2007 . Build-Out J
Map 34
Public School TypelDistribution
2007 - RFMUD/GGE
Collier Interactive
Growth ModeJ
RFMUD and GGE
----~
IMMOKAlEE RO
Year 2007
CR 8
~
Ii'
...
'"
:?
"
"
I
I
I
--j
. e""""l_rySd.<><>1
N
i
!~~~~jJ~~~~:..1
. Hilll>s.:~...,1
ClIlF"'UO
I I'IlSA
I :__~' TAl
-C""",,.IlOU".'1
Map 35
Public School Type/Distribution
at Build-Out - RFMUD/GGE
Collier Interactive
Growth Model
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3-36
Map 36
Public School Type/Distribution
2007 - RLSA/Immokalee
Map 37
Public School Type/Distribution
at Build-Out - RLSA/Immokalee
Collier Inleracllve Growth Model
RLSA and Immokalee
Year 2007
Collier Interaclive Growth Model
RLSA and Immokalee
Year Bulld.Out
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Table 7 below indicates the timing of schools facilities from 2007 to build-out, by
school type and by their optimal locations (T AZ) of those facilities. It also indicates the
aggregate shortfall of facilities over time.
Table 7
Studv Area Schools 2007-Build-out bv T AZ
Location
Year TAZ Elem. Middle High
2007 433 HS*
2007 434 MS*
2007 435 ES*
2007 418 ES
2007 411 ES
2007 408 ES
2007 398 ES MS HS
2007 394 ES
2007 391 ES MS
2007 343a ES MS
2007 241 ES
2010 217 ES MS HS
3-37
Year TAZ Elem. Middle Hi~
2010 222 ES
2015 387 ES
2015 418 ES
2015 400b ES
2015 224 MS HS
2020 387 ES MS HS
2020 224 ES
2020 386d MS
2025 386c ES HS
2025 397 ES MS
2025 225 ES
2025 389 MS
2030 389 ES
2030 386c ES
2030 388a MS
2030 225 MS
2035 389 ES
2035 388a ES HS
2035 355 ES MS
2040 388a ES HS
2040 383a ES
2040 383a ES MS
2045 383a ES MS
2050 383a ES HS
2050 421a ES
2050 421a ES MS
2055 383a HS
2070 421a HS
Build-out No Additional After 2070
Total 31 16 11
Need 42 22 11
Shortfall 11 6 0
Source: Van Buskirk, Ryffel and Associates, Inc.
*ES Elementary School, MS Middle School, HS High School
The current school facilities in the study area, future sites designated by the school
district, designated land uses in the future towns in the RLSA and opportunities in the
villages in the RFMUD, have the potential to provide for 31 elementary schools out of
42 needed to serve the population at build-out. Likewise, there would be provisions for
16 middle schools out of the 22 needed. There are sufficient high school sites to meet
the need for 11 high schools. The shortfall in elementary and middle schools are in the
Immokalee and Golden Gate sub-districts of the FLUE. The CIGM produces the data of
school age children by school plant spatially and over time to determine the optimal
selection of sites for the shortfall.
3-38
Park/Recreation Sub-Model
The park sub-model forecasts the demand for park and recreational space by the
various park classifications of community and regional parks. It also forecasts the
timing of facilities and their optimal locations in five-year increments to build-out. The
CIGM determined the best spatial distribution of parks based on service area, time and
demographics. This model may be updated every five years for scheduled capital
improvement programs.
The CIGM provides the tool to help determine whether sufficient land has been
allocated, consistent with the population over time, to determine any deficiencies, and
to then suggest any future land use plan amendments for future acquisitions. The
CIGM can also provide input for a master recreation plan and can test or revise existing
master plans. Demographic trends from the CIGM can then be used as inputs to design
recreation programs.
Figure 6
Park Demand Acrea2e 2007 and Build-Out
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
o
Park Demand In Acres
I 02007 . Build-Out I
Source: Van Buskirk, RyffeI and Associates, Inc.
3-39
Map 38
Community Park Locations
2007 - RFMUD/GGE
Collier Interactive
Growth Model
RFMUD and GGE
IMMOKALEE RD
Year 2007
.
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Map 40
Community Park Locations
2007 - RLSA/Immokalee
Collier Interactive Growth Model
RLSA and Immokalee
Year 2007
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Map 39
Community Park Locations
at Build-Out - RFMUD/GGE
Collier Interactive
Growth Model
RFMUD and GGE
Year Build-Out
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'''.KAlE; RD.
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Map 41
Community Park Locations
at Build-Out - RLSA/Immokalee
Collier Interactive Growth Model
RLSA and Immokalee
Year Build-Out
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3-40
Table 8 indicates existing and new parks to build-out, by type, timing and
their optimal locations by T AZ. It also indicates the shortfall of facilities over
time
Table 8
Study Area Parks 2007-Build-out
by T AZ Location
Community Regional
Year TAZ Park Park
2007 241 CP*
2007 391 CP
2007 399 CP
2007 432 CP
2007 433 CP
2007 433 CP
2020 387 CP
2025 388a CP
2030 389 CP
2030 387 CP
2035 388a CP
2035 386c CP
2035 217 CP
2040 383a CP
2040 389 CP
2040 225 CP
2045 383a CP
2045 388a CP
2045 397 CP
2050 421a CP
2050 383a CP
2050 355 CP
2055 383a CP
2060 421a CP
Build-out No Additional After 2060
Total 24 0
Need 29 4
Shortfall 5 4
Source: Van Buskirk, Ryffel and Associates, Inc.
*CP = Community Park
The County is required to provide community and regional park facilities to serve
the population. The standard of 1,2 acres per 1000 population for community parks and
2.9 acres per 1000 population for regional parks has been established. However, there
3-41
are no standards for a community or regional park module. The CIGM applied a
community park module of 18 acres, which is the average community park size of the
current community parks in the study area. The results of the CIGM indicate that there
is a shortfall of 5 community parks in the study area needed to serve the Immokalee
and Golden Gate sub-districts of the FLUE.
As indicated in Table 8, currently there are no regional parks in the study area with
the exception of a 2.3 acre boat ramp at the end of Lake Trafford Road. The FLUE and
its guidelines do not provide a land uses category for regional parks. The CIGM
provides the data for the distribution of the population, over time, to determine the
future optimal location and timing of regional parks. However, a module or standard
for the size of a regional park needs to be established. The state of Florida has
suggested a regional parks guideline of 250 acres as a standard.
Fire/EMS Stations Sub-Model
This sub-model of the CIGM determined the optimal timing and location of
fire/EMS stations. The CIGM forecasted the distribution of the population over time as
well as the location of other facilities such as schools, commercial centers and industrial
parks, and their proximity to fire stations. The criteria for the location of fire stations
were those established by the Insurance Service Office (ISO) for service area and
response times.
This sub-model can also be used to develop a Fire station/EMS master plan for the
acquisition of future sites and to explore other acquisition opportunities (i.e. the
location of commercial centers in which the developer can provide adequate space for
dual usage).
Also, a utility master plan can be overlaid on a fire station/EMS sub-model graphic
to determine the timing of distribution of water lines for fire fighting. This will aid in
the timing and location of schools, commercial uses, and other facilities in relation to the
adequacy of fire protection.
3-42
Map 42
Fire/EMS Station Locations
2007 - RFMUD/GGE
Collier Interactive
Growth Model
RFMUD and GGE
Year 2007
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Map 44
Fire/EMS Station Locations
2007 - RLSA/lmmokalee
Collier Interactive Growth Model
RLSA and Immokalee
Year 2007
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Map 43
Fire/EMS Station Locations
at Build-Out - RFMUD/GGE
Collier Interactive
Growth Model
RFMUD and GGE
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Map 45
Fire/EMS Station Locations
at Build-Out - RLSAfImmokalee
Collier Interactive Growth Model
RLSA and Immokalee
Year Build-Out
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3-43
Table 9 indicates the location of existing fire and EMS stations by the TAZ in which
they are located. It also indicates the optimal location of future fire stations, by year
and the T AZ where they would be optimally located. It also indicates that a shortfall
should not occur.
Table 9
Study Area Fire/EMS Stations 2007-Build-out
bv T AZ Location
Year TAZ Fire/EMS Station
Fire Station
2007 236 EMS Station
2007 345a Fire Station
Fire Station
2007 351 EMS Station
2007 360 Fire Station
2007 394 Fire Station
Fire Station
2007 396 EMS Station
2007 401a Fire Station
2007 418 Fire Station
Fire Station
2007 426 EMS Station
2010 387 Fire/EMS Station
2015 426 Fire/EMS Station
2015 403a Fire/EMS Station
2020 390b Fire/EMS Station
2020 388a Fire/EMS Station
2020 217 Fire/EMS Station
2020 361 Fire/EMS Station
2025 386d Fire/EMS Station
2025 389 Fire/EMS Station
2025 411 Fire/EMS Station
2030 388b Fire/EMS Station
2030 225 Fire/EMS Station
2035 409a I Fire/EMS Station
2035 397 Fire/EMS Station
2040 383a Fire/EMS Station
2040 355 Fire/EMS Station
2045 383a Fire/EMS Station
2050 421a Fire/EMS Station
Build-out No Additional Required After 2050
Total 27
Need 27
Shortfall 0
Source: Van Buskirk, Ryffel and Associates, Inc.
3-44
For a Class 1 rating, according to the Insurance Services Office (ISO), all sections of
the study area with hydrant protection should be within 1.5 miles of a fully equipped
engine company. The distance is measured along an all-weather road. At build-out,
most areas in the study area with the exceptions of Preservation, Conservation and
Golden Gate Estates, would be served by a public water supply. There are sufficient
land uses in the towns and villages in the RLSA, in the villages of the RFMUD and in
the activity areas to meet the needs for 27 fire stations for a Class 1 rating. However,
those areas without a public water supply like Golden Gate Estates, have a Class 9
rating. There are several options available to provide them with fire protection, but in
all probability they can be raised to a Class 8B rating.
Most communities are co-locating their Fire Stations and their EMS Stations. The
service area of a fire station on average in the study area, has a similar population size
as an EMS station, therefore it makes good sense to co-locate. The CIGM co-located all
future fire and EMS stations.
Commercial/Service Sub-Model
The commercial! service model was created to determine the demand for
neighborhood community, and regional commercial centers, which includes retail and
office space. This helps determine their optimal locations, required as a function of time
and population and as a result of disposable incomes of the population. This sub-model
provides guidelines for the apportionment of future land uses for commercial services
and office space, and identifies deficiencies or surpluses of land designated for
commercial use. This sub-model also provides important inputs to any revisions of the
County's Land Use Plan and can be updated annually from data queries.
l_..1lli
Figure 7
CommerciaVOffice Floor Area
Supply And Demand - 2007
500000
3500000
3000000
2500000
2000000
1500000
1000000
0-
Retail Supply
Retail
Demand
Office~
c~':\t,. ,
~-" "".7
Office
Demand
Total Supply
Retail/Office
Total
Demand
Retail/Office
Source: Van Buskirk, Ryffel and Associates, Inc.
Figure 8
CommerciaVOffice Floor Area
Supply And Demand - Build-Out
50000000
45000000
40000000
35000000
30000000
25000000
20000000
15000000
10000000
5000000
0-
Retail Supply
Retail
Demand
Office Supply
Office
Demand
Total Supply
Retail/Office
Total
Demand
Retail/Office
Source: Van Buskirk, Ryffel and Associates, Inc.
3-46
Map 46
Commercial Centers By
Type/Location -
2007- RFMUD/GGE
Collier Interactive
Growth Model
RFMUD and GGE
Year 2007
J
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Map 48
Commercial Centers By
Type/Location -
2007- RLSA/lmmokalee
Collier Interactive Growth Model
RLSA and Immokalee
Year 2007
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Map 47
Commercial Centers By
Type/Location
at Build-Out - RFMUD/GGE
Collier Interactive
Growth Model
RFMUD and GGE
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Map 49
Commercial Centers By
Type/Location -
at Build-Out - RLSA/lmmokalee
Collier Interactive Growth Model
RLSA and Immokalee
Year Bulld-Out
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3-47
Table 10 indicates the location, by TAZ, of existing and future, optimally located
commercial centers by type and the timeframe in which they will be needed to serve the
growing population.
Table 10
Study Area Commercial Centers 2007-Build-out
By Type and T AZ Location
Year TAZ Neighborhood Community Regional
2007 417 NC*
2007 396 NC
2007 359 NC
2007 408 NC
2007 357 1/2 NC*
2007 403 1/2NC
2007 232 1/2NC
2007 220 1/2NC
2007 345a CC*
2010 387 NC
2010 217 CC
2015 217 NC
2015 235 NC
2015 387 CC
2020 387 NC
2020 386d NC
2020 402 NC
2020 359 CC
2025 213 NC
2025 390 NC
2025 225 NC
2025 386d CC
2030 389 NC
2030 388a NC
2030 225 CC
2035 388b NC
2035 383a NC
2035 397 NC
2035 389 CC
2035 383a RC*
2040 397 NC
2040 383a 2NC* CC
2040 388 CC
2045 383a NC CC
3-48
Year TAZ Neighborhood Community Regional
2045 355 NC
2045 421a NC
2045 397 CC
2050 355 NC
2050 421a NC
2050 355 CC
2050 421a CC
2055*
Total 28 13 1
Need 33 14 1
Shortfall 5 1 0
Source: Van Buskirk, Ryffel and Associates, Inc.
*NC = One Neighborhood Center, 1/2 NC = One half of a Community Center,
2NC = Two Neighborhood Centers, CC = One Community Center, RC = One
Regional Center
The categories of neighborhood, community and regional centers describe the
commercial centers that serve the population. The size of the site and the market to
support them was determined from an analysis of these commercial centers in Collier
County. The CIGM demonstrates that the FLUE guidelines can provide 28
neighborhood commercial centers, 13 community commercial centers and 1 regional
center. However, for the towns in the RSLA and the Villages in the RFMUD the spatial
location of these centers need to be addressed as to specificity, in order to meet the
needs of the market. The shortfalls have been identified to be in the Immokalee and
Golden Gate areas by the CIGM. R.ISA
The commercial centers account for 30% of the commercial land to meet the needs of
the population. As Figure 8 demonstrates, there is a demand for 45.5 million square feet
of commercial building area at build-out for the study area and a designated supply of
17.3 million square feet at built-out for the study area. However, the Towns in the
RLSA have designated large town centers to include commercial uses but not the
amount. If an amount was specified, it could meet a substantial part of this shortfall.
3-49
Industrial Sub-Model
The industrial sub-model is not a demand model based on the demand of the
population. Rather, it is a design model determined by the community's policy makers.
The CIGM design is one scenario based on economic diversification.
One economic objective is to insure employment opportunities for future residents.
In the early and intermediate stages, a community is developing a large portion of its
labor force in construction and construction related business. As the community
matures, construction opportunities diminish and are replaced with opportunities in
manufacturing, research and development and services. In order to meet this objective,
industrial or tech parks are needed.
Another objective for industrial development for a community is to diversify its tax
as well as its economic base. The CIGM needed to determine an industrial module to
assess if there is sufficient land designated to meet theses objectives. It assumes a
module of fifty-acre tech parks to illustrate this sub-model. The results are that if a
fifty-acre tech park is allocated in each town in the RLSA, there would be sufficient
industrial land to meet these objectives.
Figure 9
Industrial Floor Area 2007 and Build-Out
5000000
35000000
30000000
25000000
20000000
15000000
10000000
Industrial Floor Area
~07 .Build~
Source: Van Buskirk, Ryffel and Associates, Inc.
3-50
Map 50
Industrial Park Locations-
2007 - RFMUD/GGE
Collier Interactive
Growth Model
RFMUO and GGE
Year 2007
!~
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CJI\"rAUO
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_eowOlylkunlltry
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Map 52
Industrial Park Locations -
2007 - RLSA/lmmokalee
Collier InteracUve Growth Model
RlSA and Immokalee
Year 2007
m
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Map 51
Industrial Park Locations-
at Build-Out - RFMUD/GGE
Collier Interactive
Growth Model
RFMUO and GGE
Year Build-Out
CR.
. Indll"I"P",~
.2Oll7E>:i4n1l1Mu....1P.'k
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Map 53
Industrial Park Locations -
at Build-Out - RLSA/lmmokalee
Collier Interactive Growth Model
RLSA and Immokalee
Year Build-Out
c,'i' ~<F .
SA 82
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3-51
Table 11
Study Area Industrial Parks 2007-Build-out
by T AZ Location
Industrial Park Industrial Park
Year TAZ (50acre module) Year TAZ (50acre module)
2007 383a IP* 2040 230 IP
2007 398 IP 2040 230a IP
2007 410 IP 2040 410 IP
2007 413 IP 2040 383a IP
2007 428 IP 2040 397 IP
2015 387 IP 2045 426 IP
2020 426 IP 2045 230 IP
2020 230 IP 2045 230a IP
2020 410 IP 2045 421a IP
i 2020 386d IP 2045 355 IP
2025 426 IP 2050 426 IP
2025 230 IP 2050 230 IP
2025 230a IP 2050 410 IP
2025 , 389 IP 2055 426 IP
2025 217 IP 2055 230 IP
2030 426 IP 2055 410 IP
2030 230 IP 2055 230a IP
2030 230a IP 2060 426 IP
2030 388a IP 2060 230 IP
2035 426 IP 2060 425a IP
2035 230 IP 2065 426 IP
2035 230a IP 2065 411 IP
2035 410 IP 2070 426 IP
2035 383a IP 2070 425a IP
2035 225 IP i 2075 426 IP
2040 426 IP 20BO 425a IP
Build-out No Additional Required After 20BO
Total 52
Need 52
Shortfall 0
Source: Van Buskirk, Ryffel and Associates, Inc.
*IP Industrial Park
Law Enforcement (Sheriff) Sub-Model
The CIGM identified the need for 7 Sheriff's Department sub-stations at build-out to
serve the population of the study area. The FLUE does provide the opportunity for
these sites as determined as to timing and location by the CIGM in accordance with
their standards.
3-52
Map 54
Sheriff Sub Station Locations -
2007 - RFMUD/GGE
Collier Interactive
Growth Model
RFMUD and GGE
Year 2007
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Map 56
Sheriff Sub Station Locations -
2007 - RLSA/Immokalee
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Year 2007
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Map 55
Sheriff Sub Station Locations -
at Build-Out - RFMUD/GGE
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Map 57
Sheriff Sub Station Locations -
at Build-Out - RLSA/Immokalee
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Year Build-Out
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3-53
Table 12
Study Area Sheriff Sub Stations 2007-Build-out
by T AZ Location
Year TAZ .. Sheriff Sub-Station
2007 351 Station
2007 405 Station
2015 383a Station
2025 390b Station
2030 217 Station
2035 355 Station
2040 225 Station
Build-out None Required After 2040
Total 7
Need 7
Shortfall 0
Source: Van Buskirk, Ryffel and Associates, Inc.
Mfordable Housing Sub-Model
It was the purpose of the affordable housing sub-model to determine the pro-rata
share (percentage) of affordable housing units to all new units within the study area.
This would be based on future growth to build-out as determined by the CIGM. A
review of the findings.contained in the Affordable Housing Workshop presentation on
March 4, 2008 to the BCC provided valuable insight in making this determination.
To be certain, we are in a period of difficult economic times and the real estate
market has experienced a significant decline, making many units in the general real
estate market more economically attractive. While some may be able to take advantage
of these bargains many more cannot, resulting in a real estate market that is a moving
target.
With what is purported to be the highest county Area Median (Household) Income
(AMI) in Florida, (at $63,900) it should be expected that affordable housing could be a
major local issue. To begin addressing this issue at least part, it. must be what
reasonable percentage of total housing units should be affordable. In Collier County,
the target group is those households earning between 35% and 120% of the AMI. These
households are considered to be If cost-burdened" because they spend more than 30% of
their income on housing, including principal, interest, taxes and insurance, or rent and
utilities. In the workshop mentioned above, it was learned that in the year 2007, there
was an affordable housing need of 10,461 units and 6,208 available, leaving a deficit of
3-54
4,253 units on a county-wide basis. Table 13 shows the breakdown of the AMI groups
and the portion they represent of the total affordable need of 10,461 units in 2007.
Table 13
AMI Groups by Number and Percent of 10,461 Needed Units in 2007
AMI CatelWTV Number Portion of Afford. Need Percent Portion of Afford. Need
35% 3,812 units 36%
50% 2,292 units 22%
60% 1,573 units 15%
61-120% 2,784 units 27%
Total 10,461 units 100%
To determine the percentage of affordable housing units that should be made
available, on a pro-rata basis in the study area, the total 2007 county-wide need of
10,461 units was compared to the total county housing units in that year. The estimated
u.s. Census has indicated a total of 192,043 units. This translates into 5.4 percent. This
percentage was then applied to the study area's total number of dwelling units, in five-
year increments to build-out as forecasted in the CIGM. Table 14 shows results of the
allocation.
Table 14
Study Area Mfordable Housing Units Needed 2007-Build-out*
Year Study Area Total Study Area Pro-rata Time Net Additional
Population Dwelling Units Interval Affordable Dwelling Units
Dwelling Units Needed Between
Needed @ 5.4 Previous and Current
Percent Time Interval
2007 79568 32781 1770 N/A
2010 89910 37039 2000 230
2015 11 7916 49744 2686 686
2020 153631 66619 3597 911
2025 191329 84523 4564 967
2030 230283 102910 5557 993
2035 269814 121704 6572 1015
2040 308560 140083 7564 992
2045 343071 156327 8441 877
2050 371180 169429 9149 708
2055* 392562* 179294 9682 533
2060 407970 186339 10062 380
2065 418623 191180 10324 262
2070 425789 194412 10498 174
2075 430524 196539 10613 115
2080 433628 197929 10688 75
Build-out 442537 202107 10914 226
Source: Van Buskirk, Ryffel, and Associates
*90% of Build-out.
3-55
The column in the table entitled, "Pro-rata Time Interval Affordable Dwelling Units
Needed at 5.4 Percent" is the result of multiplying the column entitled "Total Study
Area Dwelling Units" by 5.4 percent. The result of this would be the number of
affordable units that should be made available during the time interval indicated in the
"Year" column. As an example for the year 2065, 10,324 affordable units are indicated.
That means that between the years 2007 and 2065, 10,324 affordable units would have
ideally been made available.
The meaning of the column entitled "Net Additional Dwelling Units Needed
Between Previous and Current Time Interval" shows the number of units that would
have to be constructed in any of the time intervals assuming that all those required in
the preceding time interval were available. Theoretically, or if determined by County
policy, if the affordable units were not available, the deficit would be added to the
following time interval(s).
To determine if the 5.4 percent factor is reasonable, we reviewed the situation in one
of the study's comparable counties. By utilizing the procedure described for Collier
County, we performed the same analysis for Sarasota County. The Director of Housing
and Community Development there agreed that the methodology was appropriate.
The affordable housing need factor there was 4.2 percent which appears close to
Collier's 5.4 percent. It gets closer however, when it is recognized that Sarasota County
only addresses affordable housing needs up to 80 percent of the Area Mean Income
(AMI) while Collier County addresses up to 120 percent of the AMI.
It would be safe to conclude that if the 80 percent was increased to 120 percent in
Sarasota County, their percentages would be nearly the same as Collier's. Conversely,
as shown in Table 13, in Collier County, there was ~n AMI category of 61-120% that
represents 27 percent of the total affordable need. It was unfortunate that the 80% AMI
was not differentiated within that group for purposes of comparing it to Sarasota
County. However, if everything above 80% were removed from the affordable count, in
Collier County, just for purposes of comparison, we believe that the percentages of
affordable need would be very close between the two counties.
Overall CIGM Conclusions
The following is an overview of the conclusions of this report:
· The Future Land Use Element (FLUE) of the County's Growth Management Plan
is a sophisticated and progressive plan that addresses multiple environmental
and development issues that results in a series of complex approaches to address
3-56
these conflicts in the best interest of current and future residents. The FLUE best
represents future development in the study area. The CIGM had to integrate the
multiple disciplines (i.e. schools, parks, etc) and multiple development scenarios
(RLSA, RFMUD, etc) into a dynamic model that evolves over time. The CIGM
met that challenge.
· The CIGM estimates that the population for the study area in 2007 was 79,568
and forecasted it to be 442,537 at build-out. The forecasted population at build-
out for some of the key sub-districts are: RLSA 210,632; RFMUD 34,837;
Immokalee 59,127 and for Golden Gate Estates (GGE) 79,614.
· There are sufficient opportunities provided in the FLUE for land uses designated
for schools, community parks, commercial centers, industrial development, fire
and ems stations and sheriff sub-stations to meet the needs of future populations
with the exception of Immokalee and the Golden Gate Estates. It is anticipated
that the current development of the Immokalee Master Plan will address these
needs.
· Golden Gate Estates is a unique low-density residential development. One
strategy to address the shortfalls is to disturb the land uses in GGE as little as
possible. For example, to locate the sites for facilities on its periphery in which
the service area is sufficient to penetrate GGE so that the coverage provides the
necessary level of services.
· For the towns and villages in the RLSA, a level of specificity needs to be
established in the development of their plans for land uses and the spatial
distribution to insure that the needs of future populations are met. For example,
if there is a need for two elementary schools, it is important that the future sites
be spatially located to serve their neighborhoods. The CIGM provides the data to
assist in this endeavor.
· The FLUE does not have provisions for a regional center. Given the forecasted
build-out population of the RLSA and Immokalee of 269,759 persons, it would
call for a regional center to support a regional hospital, a regional shopping
center, a regional park, etc.
· The CIGM needs to be updated annually in order to manage growth, identify
development and demographic trends, assist in the apportionment of land uses
to meet the needs of future populations and to determine and monitor the
impacts of growth.
3-57
."",-,
:,ier East of
. .
,~,.:rVlces
"'(""', ,
Table of Contents
Section
Page
1. Introduction
2. Transportation
3. Public Utilities
4. Park and Recreation
5. Schools
6. Stormwater Management
7. Libraries
8. Fire Districts
9. Emergency Medical Services
10. Sheriffs Office
11. Chapter 189 Districts
12. Summary of Estimated Cost
13. Land Use
14. Public Participation
15. BCC Direction
16. Level of Service Menus
3
11
18
28
32
36
45
49
52
57
60
62
63
66
67
69
- 1 -
EXHIBIT A
EXHIBIT B
EXHIBIT C
EXHIBIT D
LIST OF EXHIBITS AND TABLES
2005 Build-Out Study
Transportation Modeling Spreadsheets
East of County Road 951 Utilities Study
Industrial Needs Analysis
- 2-
PreliminaTV Report
Collier East of CR 951 Services & Infrastructure Horizon Study
I. INTRODUCTION
Collier County stands at an important crossroad in its prospective development for the area east
of County Road 951 (CR951). Development decisisms related to capital infrastructure and
public services will provide a blueprint for future growth in the area. The BCC can
dramatically improve the future of the built environment in the east of CR951 study area and
the entire county by making sound decisions at this critical point in time in determining capital
infrastructure needs and the provisions for public services. The Collier County East of eR951
Services and Infrastructure Horizon Study (the Study) is a two.phase process which attempts to
focus on the most important elements of this blueprint.
The intent of this Preliminary Report in Phase I of the Study is to identify three levels of
service for each of the respective service subject areas. The first level is identified as "Status
Quo." Status Quo means what would transpire in a subject area if no additional infrastructure
or public services were added. The second level is called "Intermediate." Intermediate can
have different meanings, choices or options within a specific subject area. An intermediate
option could involve a political policy decision, a decision constrained by extraneous factors,
or a variety of other contributing factors. The third level is called "Premium." Premium is the
optimum level and in many cases involves an urban level of service that is the only option
available within a specific subject area. For example, Collier County has adopted levels of
services in its Capital Improvements Element and Concurrency Management System where the
only option is to maintain that premium level of service.
Decisions on capital infrastructure and service provisions cannot be made in a vacuum, and an
intensive public participation program for the area east of CR 951 should provide a vision from
property owners, residents, and other affected parties regarding identified infrastructure and
public services needs. Phase II of the Study will center on public participation. As well, capital
infrastructure and public services east of CR 951 must take into consideration the implications
on the rest of the county, so that deficient infrastructure and public services are not the
byproduct of the planning effort.
Of the services and infrastructure discussed, Transportation and Public Utilities are the
keystone elements. The locations of other services and institutions such as emergency and fire
services, schools, parks and libraries depend heavily on locations of roads, potable water and
wastewater lines. At this time, Long Range planning projects have been received by the
Transportation and Public Utilities Divisions that have helped identify the potential location
and cost estimates for the provision of future infrastructure. To some extent, the locations of
other public services and institutions will follow the infrastructure provision of those critical
areas.
To understand the infrastructure needs and the challenges associated with satisfying those
needs for the Study area, an overview of the physical and the Growth Management Plan
(GMP) regulatory characteristics of the area is essential. The Study area is approximately
1,210,618 acres, with six distinct districts comprising that total. These districts are the Golden
- 3 -
Gate Estates north of I-75, the Rural Fringe Mixed Use District, the Rural Lands Stewardship
Area, the Immokalee Urbanized Area,,~.the South Golden Gate Estate~ Natural Resources
Protection Area (NRPA), and Federal and State Lands. Each of these district's physical and
regulatory characteristics will be summarized below.
The Rural Fringe Mixed Use District is identified on Future Land Use Map. This District
consists of approximately 93,600 acres, or 8 percent of the Study area. Significant portions of
this District are adjacent to the Urban area or to the semi-rural, rapidly developing, large-lot
North Golden Gate Estates platted lands. Agriculturat land uses within the Rural Fringe Mixed
Use District do not represent a significant portion of the County's active agricultural lands. The
Rural Fringe Mixed Use District provides a transition between the Urban and Estates
Designated lands and between the Urban and Rural Lands Stewardship Area (RLSA) and
Conservation designated lands farther to the east. As of June 2002, the Rural Fringe Mixed Use
District consisted of more than 5,550 tax parcels, and included at least 3,835 separate and
distinct property owners. Alternative land use strategies were developed for the Rural Fringe
Mixed Use District, in part, to consider these existing conditions. The Rural Fringe Mixed Use
District employs a balanced approach, including both regulations and incentives, to protect
natural resources and private property rights, providing for large areas of open space, and
allowing, in designated areas, appropriate types, density and intensity of development. The
Rural Fringe Mixed Use District allows for a mixture of urban and rural levels of service,
including limited extension of central water and sewer, schools, recreational facilities,
commercial uses and essential services deemed necessary to serve the residents of the District.
The Rural Fringe Mixed Use District is separated into three specific areas, Sending Lands,
Neutral Lands, and Receiving Lands. Sending Lands are those lands that have the highest
degree of environmental value and sensitivity and generally include significant wetlands,
uplands, and habitat for listed species. The permitted uses within the Sending Lands are
limited to a narrow list of permitted and conditional uses and the regulations allow residential
density at a maximum density of one dwelling unit per 40 acres or one dwelling unit per lot or
parcel of less than 40 acres, which existed on or before June 22, 1999 (lots <5 acres which
existed as of October 15, 1974 or January 5, 1982, depending upon location).
Neutral Lands have been identified for limited semi-rural residential development. Available
data indicates that Neutral Lands have a higher ratio of native vegetation, and thus higher
habitat values, than lands designated as Receiving Lands, but these values do not approach
those of Sending Lands. Therefore, these lands are appropriate for limited development, if
such development is directed away from existing native vegetation and habitat. A lower
maximum gross density is prescribed for Neutral Lands when compared to Receiving Lands.
Additionally, certain other uses permitted within Receiving Lands are not authorized in Neutral
Lands and the area allows a maximum density of 1 dwelling unit per 5 gross acres (0.2 units
per acre).
Receiving Lands are those lands within the Rural Fringe Mixed Use District that have been
identified as being most appropriate for development and to which residential development
units may be transferred from areas designated as Sending Lands. Based on the evaluation of
available data, these lands have a lesser degree of environmental or listed species habitat value
than areas designated as Sending and generally have been disturbed through development, or
previous or existing agricultural operations. Various incentives are employed to direct
development into Receiving Lands and away from Sending Lands, thereby maximizing native
- 4 -
vegetation and habitat preservation and restoration. Such incentives include, but are not limited
to: the TDR process; clustered develo];2JI1:ent; density bonus incentives;_and, provisions for
central sewer and water. Within the Receiving Lands the base residential density allowable is
one (1) unit per five (5) gross acres (0.2 dwelling units per acre). The maximum density
achievable in Receiving Lands through the TDR process is one (1) dwelling unit per acre, with
a minimum project size of 40 contiguous acres. This maximum density is exclusive of the
Density Blending provisions.
The Rural Fringe Mixed Use District, as noted, llas been regulatory constructed to steer
development away from environmentally valuable land and to the areas designated Receiving
Lands. The areas designated Receiving will be the areas which will require the greatest outlay
for infrastructure improvements. Within each of the four Receiving areas, the FLUE allows
the development of a single Rural Village, which by regulation must be located where public
infrastructure exists or is planned, and shall have direct access to a roadway classified by
Colliet County as an arterial or collector roadway, or access to the Village may be via new
collector roadway directly accessing an existing arterial, the cost of which shall be borne
entirely by the developer. Additionally, a Rural Village may only be approved after
demonstration that the Village will be fiscally neutral or positive to county taxpayers outside of
the Village. These provisions of the regulations will ensure that the highest intensity
development allowed by the Rural Fringe Mixed Use District will have in place or identified
the means for funding the capital improvements necessary in maintaining the Level of Service
(LOS) required by the GMP. The 2005 Residential Build-Out Study anticipates a total of
57,644 people or 19,433 dwelling units for the RFMUD. This population amount will require
extensive infrastructure to satisfy the demands of the anticipated population, but the regulatory
component within the FLUE provides for a means in which the most intense development
allowed within this District, Rural Villages, are required to provide the funding for the capital
improvements necessary to maintain the County required adopted level of service for public
facilities and services.
The Rural Lands Stewardship Area (RLSA) includes a total of approximately 195,846 acres or
17 percent of the Study area. The RLSA generally includes rural lands in northeast eollier
County lying north and east of Golden Gate Estates, north of the Florida Panther National
Wildlife Refuge and Big Cypress National Preserve, south of the Lee County Line, and south
and west of the Hendry County Line. Approximately 182,334 acres of the RLSA is privately
owned. The RLSA protects natural resources and retains viable agriculture by promoting
compact rural mixed-use development as an alternative to low-density single use development,
and provides a system of compensation to private property owners for the elimination of
certain land uses in order to protect natural resources and viable agriculture in exchange for
transferable credits that can be used to entitle such compact development. The strategies are
based in part on the principles of Florida's Rural Lands Stewardship Act, Chapter
163.3177(11) F.S. The Overlay includes innovative and incentive based tools, techniques and
strategies that are not dependent on a regulatory approach, but will complement existing local,
regional, state and federal regulatory programs.
All privately owned lands within the RLSA which meet specified criteria set forth herein are
eligible for designation as a Stewardship Receiving Area (SRA), except land delineated as a
Flowway Stewardship Area (FSA), Habitat Stewardship Area (HSA), Water Retention Area
(WRA) or land that has been designated as a Stewardship Sending Area. Land proposed for
SRA designation shall meet the suitability criteria and other standards described in Group 4
- 5 -
Policies. Due to the long-term vision of the RLSA Overlay, extending to a horizon year of
2025, and in accordance with the guidelines established in Chapter 16;1.3177(11) F.S., the
specific location, size and composition of each SRA cannot and need not be predetermined in
the GMP. In the RLSA Overlay, lands that are eligible to be designated as SRA generally have
similar physical attributes as they consist predominately of agriculture lands which have been
cleared or otherwise altered for this purpose. Lands shown on the Overlay Map as eligible for
SRA designation include approximately 74,500 acres outside of the Area of Critical State
Concern (ACSC) and 18,300 acres within the ACSC. . Because the Overlay requires SRA's to
be compact, mixed-use and self sufficient in the provision of services, facilities and
infrastructure, traditional locational standards normally applied to determine development
suitability are not relevant or applicable to SRA's.
The last sentence of the preceding paragraph, taken verbatim from Policy 4.2 of the FLUE, is
of critical relevance to the aim and purpose of this Study. All development that is to transpire
within the RLSA will originate with the creation of a SRA and by policy all newly created
SRA's must provide for, or have available, the necessary infrastructure to maintain the
county's adopted level of service. This requirement is further expanded upon by Policy 4.14 of
the RLSA, which requires that SRAs must have either direct access to a County collector or
arterial road or indirect access via a road provided by the developer that has adequate capacity
to accommodate the proposed development in accordance with accepted transportation
planning standards. Also, the policy requires that no SRA shall be approved unless the capacity
of County collector or arterial road(s) serving the SRA is demonstrated to be adequate in
accordance with the Collier County Concurrency Management System in effect at the time of
SRA designation. Furthermore, Policy 4.18 of the RLSA requires each RSA to be fiscally
neutral or positive to Collier County at the horizon year based on a costlbenefit fiscal impact
analysis model acceptable to, or as may be adopted by, the County.
The 2005 Residential Build-Out Study has allocated a population projection for the RLSA of
389,183. Please note that this population figure is not static and will be market driven based on
economies of scale in the RLSA and the rest of Collier County. This number accounts for 57
percent of the 688,489 persons projected for the Study area projected by the Build-Out Study.
Over half of the growth which will transpire within the Study area will, by policy, be required
to be financially neutral or positive to the County, and be required to provide for the
development's proportionate share to fund the necessary improvement to maintain the
County's accepted level of service. This reality heightens the need underlying this Study,
efficient and detailed coordination between the County's future infrastructure plans and the
emerging SRA's located within the approved Chapter 189 Districts or other proposed SRA's in
the RLSA.
Golden Gate Estates north of I-75 comprises 51,200 acres or 4 percent of the Study area.
Unlike the above described SRA's and Chapter 189 Districts where infrastructure costs are
paid up-front by new development, through proportionate share assessments, impact fees, or
other payments, and the impact on the local tax base is limited, the Golden Gate Estates does
not present the same opportunity. This is due to an inefficient allocation of dwelling units on
larger parcels of land. With the average lot between 1.14 - 5 acres, the provision of urban
levels of service could be construed as cost prohibitive due to distance being a primary
component to cost. Based upon the 2005 Build-Out Study, more than half of the estimated
27,607 dwelling units are built. All new dwelling units will be assessed impact fees, but at the
current rate, based upon the existing infrastructure deficit, the amount generated by the
- 6 -
impact fees is not expected to satisfy the total infrastructure costs for the area. In
particular, the extension of potable watet,.and wastewater to a portion, or all of, the Estates may
be a future potential project of need with no identifiable funding source.
In addition to the lack of potable water and wastewater provided to the Estates, the allocation
of only one type of land use, residential, presents another dilemma to the district. During the
recent amendment of the Golden Gate Master Plan, four additional Neighborhood Centers,
which average 5 acres in size, were created. Unfortunately due to the size, location and the
regulatory demands related to landscaping, parking,_open space, setbacks, drain fields and/or
on-site package plants and environmental preservation requirements, the Neighborhood
Centers are not anticipated to meet the commercial demands of the Golden Gate Estates
residents. In order to adequately address commercial needs in the Estates, commercial Activity
Centers or Sub-districts of a minimum 40 acres will be necessary in numerous locations.
Additionally, the increased commercial centers would provide destinations that would
significantly reduce the trip lengths in the localized area around the commercial centers. The
commercial land use that is necessary to adequately address the needs of the Estates is
somewhat of a dilemma as the provision for larger commercial land uses is inextricably
intertwined with a need for urban level of service for potable water and wastewater that
currently does not exist in the Estates
One of the goals of the second phase of this study is to poll the residents within the Estates to
determine their desired level of service compared against the cost associated with the particular
desired level of service. One of the primary questions the BCC must consider is whether
to offer a rural or urban level of service to the Estates property owners. Subsequent to the
second phase of the Study, periodic analysis must be undertaken of the aquifer providing
potable water from wells to monitor for contamination of the aquifer.
The Immokalee Urbanized area comprises 16,992 acres or 1.5 percent of the Study area. The
Imrnokalee area is unique compared against the other sub-districts within the Study in that an
urbanized level of service has been demanded of projects, and the area has an existing water
and sewer district. New developments within the Imrnokalee urbanized area are required to
extend water and wastewater to the project and contribute their proportionate share to ensure
levels of service are maintained.
The South Golden Gate Estates Natural Resources Protection Area (NRPA), south of I-75
comprises 31,360 acres or 2.7 percent of the Study area. The majority of the parcels within
this sub-area have recently been acquired by the State of Florida as part of the Comprehensive
Everglades Restoration Plan. The primary goal of the Plan is to restore a more natural flow of
water to the Everglades, which will ultimately result in a long-term, sustainable water supply
for South Florida. To date, the State has acquired close to 100 percent of the land needed for
the initial Congressionally authorized project. As part of the Plan, the geographic area of the
Southern Golden Gate Estates (SGGE) will be flooded to restore the natural flow way to the
area. Based upon this fact, the infrastructure needs for this sub-area is projected to be nominal.
The Federal and State Lands comprise approximately 821,620 acres, or 70 percent of the total
Study area. These acres currently are designated eonservation by the Future Land Use
Element. The overall purpose of the Conservation Designation is to conserve and maintain the
natural resources of Collier County and their associated environmental, and recreational and
economic benefits. All native habitats possess ecological and physical characteristics that
- 7 -
justify attempts to maintain these important natural resources. Barrier Islands, coastal bays,
wetlands, and habitat for listed species deserve particular attention because of their ecological
value and their sensitivity to perturbation. It is because of this that all proposals for
development in the Conservation Designation must be subject to rigorous review to ensure that
the impacts of the development do not destroy or unacceptably degrade the inherent functional
values. The GMP does not allow residential development on publicly owned lands, except as
accessory to a conservation use; and the vast majority of the conservation designated lands are
in public ownership. Due to this restriction, the need for future infrastructure is extremely low.
I ~
" 0 Rural Fringe Mixed Use
District
I. Rural lands Stewardship
I Area
Subdistricts of Study Area
[] 7.73%
. South Golden Gate
Estates Natural Resources
Protection Area
D Federal and State lands
067.87%
o 4.23%
. ~ 0 1 .40%
\
'-.2.59%
o Golden Gate Estates north
of '-75
o Immokalee Urbanized
Area
Each of the above sub-districts which comprise the Study area have been briefly described for
their physical and regulatory characteristics; to give further context to the Study, population
projections from the 2005 Build-Out Study (Exhibit A) generated by the Collier
Comprehensive Planning Department has been assigned to the Study area. This population
assignment will further complete the picture of the demand which will be levied upon each
infrastructure or service provider within the Study area. The population projection for all areas
east of CR 951 at theoretical build-out is 688,489 persons, or 65 percent of total county-wide
build-out. This compares with the present population estimate of 71,000 persons, or 22 percent
of the total estimated 2005 County population. The below text has been extracted from the
2005 Build-Out Study.
The 2005 Residential Build-out Study entailed an analysis of undeveloped lands to determine
likely future residential development, combined with existing residential development, to
project the total number of dwelling units and resulting permanent population. The Study
reflected one plausible development scenario, one that neither reflected the maximum
development potential nor the minimum development potential. There were infinite number of
possible scenarios due to the many variables involved and, therefore, a degree of conjecture
was inherent to the analysis. The variables included future occupancy/vacancy rates; future
- 8 -
persons per household ratios; the type and density/intensity of future development requests and
approvals; and possible future regulator)t. changes.
Projections of future development location, type and density/intensity were made for general
planning purposes; as such, the projections should NOT be relied upon as creating an absolute
expectation of future development approvals. The Study is a planning tool, not a blueprint or
vision for future development order approvals by the BCe.
Due to the numerous variables involved in the build-out analysis, the data in the Build-Out
Study should not be used to predict dwelling unit or population totals at the level of individual
Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs); rather, the more TAZs that are aggregated, the greater the
confidence in the resulting projections. This is especially true for sparsely developed areas of
the county where there is little, if any, established development pattern, which constitutes the
majority of the Horizon Study area
The objective of the Build-out Study is to project what the dwelling unit and population counts
will be, and their distribution, at build-out; it is not to predict when build-out will occur.
However, if the countywide annual average growth rate since 2000 (5.05%) were to remain
steady into the future, build-out could occur as soon as 2026. Staff does not anticipate that
build-out will be achieved in about twenty years, for three reasons: 1) past experience has
shown that the growth rate will vary over time, especially during cyclical economic downturns
(think of the early 1990's - Collier County's growth slowed down, albeit not as significantly as
most other parts of the country); 2) different areas of the county experience different growth
rates; and, 3) as build-out is approached, the growth rate will decline significantly.
Additionally, the latest population projections prepared by the Comprehensive Planning
Department (in 2004) project the countywide permanent population in 2030 at 739,700.
Estimated Buildout
Total Dwelling
Area Units Total Population
Naples 27,252 40,971
Marco Island 18,271 41,004
Everelades Citv 550 744
Incorporated Snm
46,073
82,719
Immokalee 38,798 1 04,483
Coastal Urban area 246,368 426,064
RLSA-Rural Lands StewardshiD Area 132,283 389,193
RFMUD.Rural Frinl!e Mixed Use District 19,433 57,644
- 9 -
GGE East of CR-951 & Rural Settlement Area 27,607 81,517
GGE West of CR.951 3,430 9,865
All of GGE & Rural Settlement Area 31,037 91,382
NOTES:
GGE = Golden Gate Estates.
Naples figures per 1994 Urban Area Buildout Study, Phase 1.
Marco Island figures per 1996 Marco Island Master Plan.
Inunokalee figures per 1991 Inunokalee Area Master Plan.
East of CRlSR 95l excludes lmmokalee.
Coastal Urban area: from Gulf of Mexico east to approximately] mile east of Colllier Blvd.; from Lee County line south to Gulf of Mexico.
The above areas are such that, with the exception of the unincoporatedJincorporated areas, no combination will equal the countywide sum.
Population Projections by District for Study Area
I
I. hnmok.ee I j
I :1
IIlil RLSA-Rural Lands I
i Stewardship Area I
110 RFMUD.Rural Fringe),,:
Mixed Use District !
!
, I
! 0 GGE East of CR-951I
. & Rural Settlement !
Area I
__._---.-J I
400,000.-------
350,000t--
300,0001---
250,000+----
!
200 000 t-- ---
150:000t-----
, 100,000r-..--._~=
50,0001----
01-=
=--
Population
Based on Comprehensive Planning 2005 Build-Qut Study
What follows are the possible outlays of each infrastructure and service providers correlated to
the three possible levels of service identified by this Study.
- 10-
II. TRANSPORTATION
Collier County Transportation Division
Collier East of CR 951 Services & Infrastructure Horizon Study
Summary
Attached to this East of CR 951 Transportation Study Summary (Exhibit B) are three
spreadsheets that specifically delineate three levels o(needs for roadway within the Study area.
The project summaries contain cost estimates in today's dollars for studies, design, mitigation,
construction, right-of-way acquisition and contingency funds. The corresponding maps
identifying the three LOS and the proposed number of lanes are contained within the body of
this report on pages 15-18.
Although the intent of this project is to plan for transportation projects for new development
east of CR 951, the county's transportation network is not constrained by CR 951 as a physical
boundary. The entire transportation network can only be analyzed from the perspective of
function when taking into account the existing network, planned/financially feasible projects
and the projected needs that will exist at both 2030 and the projected build out year of 2050.
The transportation system improvements for the east of CR 951 study are broken down into
three levels (status quo, intermediate, and premium) with specific projects set forth in the
attached maps and spreadsheets.
Levell - Status Quo
The status quo level is based on the existing Long Range Transportation Plan and some of the
conceptual roadways that are currently being planned through an assumed build-out year of
2050. The total cost of the roadway improvements east of CR 951 is $2.5 billion. The primary
determinant of total costs are based on the per lane mile cost for studies, design, right-of-way
acquisition, construction, construction engineering inspection and mitigation associated with
specific projects. However, cost adjustments have been made for some of the projects that are
further along in the production process.
To determine the status quo level of projects in the east of CR 951 Study, the Transportation
Division analyzed the entire County needs network to ensure that the revenue necessary for
projected status quo needs was not in excess of the total impact fee production capacity of the
County through build-out. As a point of beginning, the County's residential build out
projections were used to project the total number of future residential units. These units that
would be built will in-turn produce about $1.4 billion in road impact fees (in today's dollars
not including recent fee increases that have not been enacted yet). When the projected
commercial impact fees are included in the road impact fee calculations, assuming no
additional changes in the amount of commercial land use acreage county wide, commercial
impact fees will add an additional $1.1 billion in road impact fees (in today's dollars).
Therefore, the status quo level for reasonableness purposes does not exceed the rough $2.5
billion dollar estimate. Obviously, there are projects that will be funded with state and federal
dollars as well as opportunities to get grant funding to supplement this estimate, but it should
be emphasized that the funding for status quo level is limited to projected impact fee
- 11 -
revenue. Other revenue sources considered in the potential revenue stream for the status quo
level include, but were not limited to gas..taxes and ad valorem taxes.
The justification for not including the aforementioned gas tax and ad valorem revenue sources
in the status quo calculation is apparent when analyzing the existing countywide roadway
network. These revenue sources were not included in the status quo calculation as it is apparent
that these revenue sources will be necessary for roadway and bridge maintenance, landscaping
and transit. For example, future maintenance and reconstruction costs that will not be impact
fee eligible are the replacement of County maintained bridges. The County has 100 eounty
maintained bridges currently on our roadway system with 16 of those bridges with an age of
over 50 years. Fifty years is usually considered the functional life of a bridge that was built
prior to 1970 (newer bridges from the 1970' s on were built with a 75 year life span). Of the
100 bridges, 70 are projected to need replacement prior to 2050.
The status quo level of roadway needs through 2030 and 2050 will have LOS problems in
many areas. The overall travel operations of this network show a total of 11 million vehicle
hours traveled with over 9 million vehicle hours of delay.
An analysis of the 2030 and 2050 modeling indicates that there are still obvious LOS problems
in the areas listed below. The arterial roadways in areas identified as a problem are where the
volume to capacity ratio's are well over 1.0 with average daily volumes over 100,000 vehicles
per day:
· Immokalee from CR 951 to Oil Well Road
· Camp Keais Road from Oil Well Road to Immokalee Road
· CR 951 in the 1-75 to Davis Boulevard area
· Oil Well Road from Randal Boulevard to Camp Keais Road
· SR 82 from SR 29 to the Lee County line
In order to solve some of the aforementioned LOS problems, the next two levels include the
widening of parallel facilities and construction of new facilities as most of the existing arterials
are at their assumed maximum through lane standard. These improvements as set forth in the
spreadsheets include widening roads to their maximum through lanes, new parallel routes,
and/or overpasses/flyovers. The Status Quo level is graphically illustrated on the map on the
following page.
Level 2 - Intermediate
A medium level of roadway improvements was then developed to add some parallel and new
facilities to try and lower the amount of delay across the transportation system. Facilities that
were added include better interconnecting roads in Golden Gate Estates and in the Immokalee
area to he1~alleviate modeled congestion. These added roadways include; Wilson north to 47Th
A venue, 8 Street and 16Th Street between Green and Randal, a Golden Gate Boulevard
Extension to try and alleviate congestion on Oil Well and Immokalee Roads, a Carson
Extension down to Immokalee to help alleviate congestion on Camp Keais, and an Overpass at
eR 951 and Immokalee, and new Interchange at Davis Boulevard and CR/SR 951/I-75 to
relieve congestion on both of those links.
- 12 -
The projected cost of the medium level is $3.49 Billion, $990,000,000 above expected
generated revenue, which would stilll]J)t- address all of the needs east of CR 951 and would
still have a roadway system that would operate below current LOS standards. And more
specifically, there would still be failing links along Irnmokalee Road, Camp Keais, Oil Well
Road, and SR 82. To satisfy the LOS deficiency the network was modeled for the premium
level.
Level 3 - Premium
The premium level of roadway improvements includes the roadway improvements that are
needed to attempt to solve the LOS problems identified in the previous two levels with a 2050
modeling effort based on the 1,066,000 build-out scenario. The premium level is estimated to
cost $3.94 billion for roadway improvements east of CR 951, $1,440,000,000 above expected
generated revenue.
The premium level includes; overpasses and/or flyovers at four locations based on high volume
intersections, road connections with new bridges in the Estates (including alternatives with 3
lane sections in 60' ROW corridor and unbalanced lanes) and ten new alignment alternatives.
The addition of new parallel facilities was modeled to try and limit the need for multiple
overpasses, although a reduction in network would require overpasses to be considered at
remaining major intersection locations. The ten new alignments are preliminary and could
change upon further study. However, the outright removal of one or more of the new roadway
alignments causes the need to increase capacity on the other existing and planned routes, which
would include widening (possibly beyond our current maximum of six lanes) or overpasses to
create additional capacity that is needed.
The bicycle/pedestrian improvements assumed for east of CR 951 are included within the
roadway project costs and will range from sidewalks and bike lanes to asphalt pathways on the
more controlled access facilities. The level of landscaping that would be included has not been
determined. The roadway projects cost includes stormwater treatment for the roadways at a
rough estimate of 3 acres for two lane miles of added capacity. The one area of uncertainty
regarding the overall project cost estimates is the mitigation costs that are going to be needed
to widen and build new roadways in the eastern portion of the County. For example, it has been
estimated that 25% of the cost estimate for the CR 951 Extension project will be just for
mitigation (roughly estimated as $90 million for the project from Immokalee Road to Bonita
Beach Road in Lee eounty).
The premium level was modeled and the overall network operations indicate 7 million vehicle
hours traveled with just over 5 million vehicle hours of delay. This represents a 40% reduction
in vehicle hours traveled and a 40% reduction in hours of delay from the status quo level.
There are still problem areas (Oil Well Road and SR 82 for instance) and the analysis also
raises the issue of land use and what could be done to split the commute from the eastern part
of the County (i.e. half of the trips to Naples and half of the trips to Immokalee for work as
well as other commercial related trips). Based on the analysis, staff recommends three
additional tasks to better define the vision for east of CR 951 and to help alleviate existing and
future congestion.
The first additional task would be to determine short-falls in overall commercial, retail and
industrial land uses and to then determine the placement that would best serve the population
- 13 -
while helping to reduce the travel distance and therefore delays in the transportation system.
Secondly, staff recommends coordinating with the RPC, the State and Hendry eounty to better
replicate future conditions in the northeast portion of the County. We currently have a joint
model with Lee County but have recently heard the major growth potential of Hendry County
(and a possible new toll facility through the center of the state) and need to model this to better
address the future needs of SR 29, SR 82 and the County roads in those areas as well as
determining if the conditions in the center part of the County change as a result of modeling
these changes. Thirdly, staff needs to do some type of environmental screening (such as the
ETDM - Efficient Transportation Decision Making process) to coordinate proposed
alternatives with environmental stakeholders to identify problem areas and possible solutions
and alternatives to those problem areas. Below is the cost summary for the three LOS options
identified and on the following three pages the graphic representation of the three LOS.
The Status Quo cost option was generated based upon an estimated $2.5 Billion generated from
collection of future impact fees, it should be noted that $990,000,000 Million for
Intermediate and $1.44 Billion for Premium are above the expected $2.5 Billion generated
has not been linked to a specific funding source.
,---
i
I
I
j
$4,000,000,0001
$3,500,000,000!
$3,000,000,0001
$2,500,000,000 I
I
$2,000,000,000.1
$1,500,000,0001
I
$1,000,000,0001
$500,000,0001
$0
Transportation LOS Cost Summary
Status Quo
Intermediate
Premium
$2.5 Billion expected from future impact fees, future
gas tax and ad valorum revenue utilized for bridge
and existing network maintenance
- 14 -
COLLIER COUNTY EAST OF CR 951 STUDY
STATUS QUO LEVEL
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Number of L.anes
CR 9511 US 41 OVERPASS
- 2 Lanes Facility
- 4 Lanes Facility ~
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- 15 -
COLLIER COUNTY EAST OF CR 951 STUDY
MEDIUM LEVEL
LEE COUNTY
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IMMOKALEE} CR 951
INTERCHANGE
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- '" Lanes Fac 'ty
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- 16 -
COLLIER COUNTY EAST OF CR 951 STUDY
PREMIUM LEVEL
C'~"UWJQ
Lee County
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6 Lanes "acll~1
- 8 Lar,e" Faa i~)'
- 17 -
III. PUBLIC UTILITIES
Collier County Public Utilities Division
Collier East of CR 951 Services & Infrastructure Horizon Study
Summary
The infrastructure and services needs in the area East of CR 951 include potable water,
wastewater and solid waste. With respect to potable water and wastewater, the current District
boundary includes a small portion of the East of CR 951 area. The East of 951 Study area is
comprised of three distinct land use districts, the Rural Fringe, the Eastern Lands, and the
Estates. The future development that will occupy the Rural Fringe and the Eastern Lands, per
existing regulation will develop as individual hamlets, villages, and towns. Many of the
hamlets, villages and towns will be located within a 189 district or be developed with a
proposed Community Development District (CDD), subject to BCC approval and created with
the express purpose of providing a public financing mechanism for public infrastructure and
services without competing with other County providers in a portion of the currently
undeveloped RLSA and Overlay. For the last remaining land use district, the Estates, there is
no mechanism in place to assume the responsibility for financing the public infrastructure such
as potable water and wastewater. To better gauge the cost associated with the financing of the
water and wastewater extension to the Estates, the Public Utilities Department commissioned a
study through the consultants Greeley and Hansen, LLC. From this study costs have been
associated with the three levels of services identified throughout this report.
Three levels of service for County-provided services were considered as follows:
· Status Quo
· Intermediate Service
· Premium Service
A. Potable Water and Wastewater
Level-I-Status Quo. This level of service is the continued use of septic tanks for wastewater
treatment and individual private wells for potable water service. The cost associated with this
level of service is zero, but as additional users draw upon the aquifer and influence the
groundwater with individual septic fields, the long term viability of this option is called into
doubt.
Level-2-Intermediate Service. As noted, the Public Utilities Department has received the,
"East of County Road 951 Utilities Study," (Exhibit C) a work produced by Greeley and
Hansen, LLC, as a basis for determining the cost associated with the levels of service required
of this Study. The Utilities Study is focused upon the extension of potable water and
wastewater infrastructure to five square miles (sections) of Estates zoning along the east side of
CR 951 from Vanderbilt Beach Road to one mile south of Golden Gate Parkway. From the
cost estimated to provide the services to the project area, costs are extrapolated to cover the
entire Estates area. The project area can be seen on the map titled, "Public Utilities Project
Area," found on page 23. It is the yellow area east of 951.
The estimated cost to provide both water and wastewater to the five section area, as well as a
cost projection per parcel is shown on table one below.
- 18 -
Table One
Total Cost Cost per Parcel
Supply and Treatment eost $ 6,936,000 $ 4,070
Element
Distribution Cost Element $31,779,000 $23,230
30% Contin enc $11,615,000
TOTAL $50,330,000
Collection Cost Element $66,264,000 $48,438
Treatment/Disposal Cost $ 7,000,000 $ 5,117
Element
30% Cantin enc $21,979,000 $16,067
TOTAL $95,243,000 $70,000
GRAND TOTAL $145,573,000 $107,000
I~
I
Project Area - 5 Sections (East of CR951 within Water & Sewer Disctrict)
L
For identifying an intermediate level of service four options are presented. This first option
would be for the limited extension of water and wastewater to the Estates district. Under this
option, only the Estates sections that are currently inside of the Water-Sewer District boundary,
or the project area, would have water and wastewater extended. The total cost associated with
this option is $145,573,000, or $107,000 per parcel as shown on table 1. Another option for
the intermediate level of service would be for the extension of water only to the entire Estates
area (approximately 80 square miles). Under this option, the cost is $909,360,000, (80
sections X $11,367,000 per section for water service) or $41,485 per parcel. The basis for the
costs for this option is the water service costs shown on Table Two on the following page.
160000000 '
140000000
120000000
100000000
80000000 I
60000000
40000000
20000000
o
$145,573,000.00,
1---
Total Estimated Cost
- 19 -
0------11
I ,I
o Total Estimated Cost [ '1
I Potable Water I
, Ii
III Total Estimated Cost ;,1
Wastewater
, Ii
I oTot.1 Estlm.ted Cost ,i]
I Potable/WasteWater II
L_____ __
The intermediate service costs are sUIl1Illarized as follows
Cost of Service
Option Description
1 Water and Wastewater service to project area
(5 sections within Water-Sewer District)
2 Water service only to entire Estates area
(80 sections)
Total
$145,573,000
Per Parcel
$107,000
$909,360,000
$41,485
A third option for intermediate water service to the Estates that has not been evaluated is a fire
service only water system. There are several alternative methods that could be considered for a
fire service only option as follows:
· Fire service only pipelines that extend into the Estates from existing potable
transmission mains;
A system consisting of "dry" hydrants and water mains connected to surface water
sources, such as canals or ponds;
A system of wells and storage (ponds or ground storage tanks);
Fire system only water mains constructed near the east boundary of the existing
Water-Sewer District with locations for filling tankers or fire trucks; or
Combinations of the above.
.
.
.
There are several critical issues that need to be considered III order to evaluate these
alternatives as follows:
· Permitting;
· Capital and operations costs;
· Legal;
· System maintenance responsibilities;
· Funding mechanisms;
· Property acquisition;
· Property Insurance;
· System Reliability;
Fire Department concerns; and
· Impacts to existing water demand and supply.
Upon further direction, a study can be undertaken to evaluate this option. It should be noted,
that the Utilities Division can only participate for projects within the Water-Sewer District. The
Fire District may need to take the lead for options such as non-potable dry hydrant systems
A fourth intermediate utility service option to the Estates that has also not been evaluated is
service to areas eligible for commercial activity by the Golden Gate Area Master Plan. This
could include extensions of transmission mains for water and wastewater service or
consideration for new treatment plants. Many of the same issues listed above for the fire
service only option are applicable to this option and would need to be evaluated if further
consideration is recommended.
Level-3- Premium Service. In accordance with the scope of services, proposed "premium
service" water and wastewater facility layouts have been developed and sized based on the
County's Level of Service (LOSS) standards that have been adopted with the current water and
wastewater master plans. Water main layouts are based on providing potable water and fire
- 20-
service to all residents. Wastewater service is based on providing conventional gravity
wastewater service to all residents with pumping stations at appropriate locations. Both
systems would be connected to the existing infrastructure. Area two below is the blue cross
hatched area in the "Public Utilities Project Area" map.
Table Two
Total Cost
Cost per
Section
$1,387,100
Cost per
Parcel *
$5,062
Supply and
Treatment Cost
Element
Transmission Cost
Element
Distribution Cost
Element
30% Contin enc
TOTAL
$110,968,000
$80,080,000
$1,001,000
$3,653
$508,459,440
$6,355,743
$23,196
$209,852,240
$909,360,000
$2,623,153
$11,367,000
Collection Cost
Element
Transmission Cost
Element
Treatment/Disposal
Cost Element
30% Contingency
$1,060,221,760
$13,252,772
$48,368
$16,000,000
$ 200,000
$ 730
$112,000,000
$ 1,400,000
$5,109
$356,466,560
$ 4,455,832
$16,262
TOTAL
$1,544,720,000
$19,309,000
$70,471
$111,956
GRAND TOTAL
$2,454,080,000
$30,676,000
* Average of 274 parcels per Section
The total cost associated with full water and wastewater service to the 80 section (the number
includes the five sections currently within the District boundary without service) of Estates
zoning within this Study is $2,454,080,000, (80 sections X $30,676,000 per section for water
and wastewater service) or $111,956 per parcel.
- 21 -
,-
$2,500,000,000
I
$2,000,000,000 I
$1,500,000,000
$1,000,000,000,
I $500,000,0001
I
I $0
l
Potable & Wastewater to all of North Golden Gate Estate Area
Total Estimated Cost for Estates East of CR951
.J
If
J Total Estimated Cost
Potable Water II
r:
i--
I
I II
I II
II I) Total Estimated Cost i:
;1
I Wastewater I.
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Potable/WasteWater Ii
--__JI
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r-
Per Parcel cost of Potable & Wastewater to all of North Golden Gate Estates
$120,000
$100,000 '
$80,000
$60,000 '
$401000 ;
$20,000
$0
Total Estimated per Parcel Cost for Estates East of CR951
- 22-
--]1
o Total Estimated Cost i
Potable Water per parcell,
I
I!;] Total Estimated Cost
Wastewater per Parcel
:1
I,
o Total Estimated Cost I,
Potable/WasteWater per II
I Parcel I:
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R 27 E
COLLIER COUNTY GOVERN~IH
PUSL.IC UTILITIES ENGINEERING DEPAftTMEN'l
SEPTEMBER 2005
R 2& E
""..L_Y AND HAN..N Iot.e:o
R 26 E
- 23 -
b. Solid Waste Management Department
OBJECTIVE
To characterize the current solid waste system and related services and to describe the
conceptual framework for evaluating system enhancements to meet population growth
projected east of CR951.
BACKGROUND
Starting in December 2000, the County embarked on an ambitious program to address existing
solid waste management issues and to search for progressive solid waste solutions in the
intermediate and long-term to address future needs. Through this work, the County has made
many significant achievements, including, but not limited to:
.. Improved the Landfill Operating Agreement with Waste Management, Inc. of Florida
(WMIF);
.. Remedied recurring odor management issues at the Naples Landfill (Landfill);
.. Diverted biosolids/sludge to an out-of-county disposal facility;
.. Diverted construction & demolition debris (C&D) to an out-of-county disposal facility;
Ii Assessed the feasibility of developing a landfill gas-to-energy (LFGE) project at the
Landfill;
Ii Performed a rate structure assessment on a full-cost accounting basis;
III Initiated an artificial reef construction project using clean C&D;
.. Implemented a Mandatory Non-Residential Recycling Ordinance;
I!l Issued a Grease Trap Waste Processing Request for Proposals (RFP);
· Issued a Municipal Solid Waste Processing (Gasification) RFP;
'I Issued a Source Separated Organic Waste Processing RFP;
I!l Renegotiated its Franchise Solid Waste Collection Agreements with WMIF and
Immokalee Disposal Company, Inc. (IDC).
Current Initiatives include:
'I Conducting a Materials Recovery Facility (MRF) Feasibility Assessment;
· Developing a LFGE project to beneficially utilize landfill gas;
.. Upgrading the scale house and related facilities at the Landfill; and
· Upgrading the existing recycling centers.
Many of the County's initiatives are focused on preserving disposal (airspace) capacity at the
Landfill.
CONSIDERATION
Current Service Level (as of October 1, 2005)
Levell-Status Quo
Collier County provides a high level of solid waste service at a relatively low cost based on
recent surveys of other Florida County's. The following sections describe the general services
managed by the County
- 24-
Solid Waste Collection
The County is divided into the following two service districts:
1. Service District I is managed by WMIF and includes the majority of unincorporated
Collier County (excluding the Immokalee area); and
2. Service District II is managed by IDC and includes the Immokalee area.
The residential collection services include:
II Garbage Collection 2X/week (unlimited);
II Recycling eollection IX/week (one 64-gallon recycling cart in Service
District I and two 18-gallon bins in Service District IT);
.. Yard Trash Collection IX/week (up to 10 bundles);
" White Goods Collection IX/week;
II Brown Goods Collection IX/week;
II Electronics Collection IX/week;
II Tires Collection IX/week; and
II Battery Collection IX/week.
The cost per household for fiscal year 2006 is:
.. $153.70 in Service District I; and
" $144.26 in Service District II.
The difference in cost per household relates to the use of 64-gallon recycling carts in Service
District 1. The solid waste collected in Service District I is disposed of in the Landfill. The
solid waste collected in Service District II is transferred from the recently closed Immokalee
Landfill to the Okeechobee Landfill. All recyclables, while the property of the County, are
managed by WMIF and IDe.
Non-residential properties are also services by WMIF and IDe. The rates for solid waste
collection service are established each year by the County via an annual rate resolution. Non-
residential recycling service is not regulated by the solid waste collection franchise agreements.
Recycling Centers
Collier County operates three recycling centers, located in Naples, Marco Island and
Carnestown. These centers are available to residents at no charge, while businesses may use
them for a nominal charge.
Landfills
Eustis Landfill
The Eustis Landfill, located on Eustis Avenue is a closed, unlined, County-owned landfill,
which stopped accepting waste in 1987 and was officially closed in accordance with Florida
Department of Environmental Protection (PDEP) requirements in 1992.
- 25 -
lrnrnokaiee Landfill
The Immokalee Landfill, located on Stockade Road, is operated by WMlF. It commenced
operations in 1982, and closed in [2004], and now operates as a Transfer Station.
Navies Landfill
The Naples Landfill is owned by the County, and operated by WMlF. The Naples Landfill is a
312-acre, Class-I Solid Waste Management Facility. The Landfill has been in operation,
receiving solid waste from the County, since 1975. Four of the six cells have been filled and
closed. One cell is currently utilized for yard waste processing, and one cell is currently
utilized for landfilling.
The 2004 AUIR model for landfill space shows the County running out of existing space in
2025.
Level 2- Intermediate
While an intermediate level of service has not been identified for solid waste disposal, within
the below premium level of service, 7 options are presented. The first two, landfill expansion
and new landfill, are identified as the least cost prohibitive and for the basis of this Study can
be construed as the intermediate level of service.
Level3-Preminum
The County, through the development of its integrated solid waste management program, has
established a sound foundation upon which to plan enhancements and new infrastructure and
programs to manage future growth. While the various initiatives already established have
resulted in a decrease in per capita waste disposal, per capita waste generation continues to
Increase.
The projections are based on the AUIR model. Assuming that the Build Out population of
1.06 million in 2030. A growth factor of 5% was added to the model in 2010. With this
growth factor the population in 2030 is 1.10 million. With this scenario the County will run
out of currently permitted landfill space in 2023.
Disposal/Conversion
With the recent closure of the Immokalee Landfill, the Naples Landfill remains as the only in-
County disposal option. To meet the solid waste management needs of the growing
community, future disposal options are required. Based on revised growth projections, the
AUIR now indicate that capacity at the Landfill will be depleted by 2023.
However, there are many options available to the County to effectively manage the future solid
waste stream. Some examples and the corresponding per ton processing cost ranges are
identified below:
· Landfill expansion (No direct cost increase to $20/ton increase);
- 26-
It New Landfill ($40 to $60/ton);
It MSW composting($50 to $70/tou.);-
It Out-of-County disposal($60 to $80/ton);
It Waste-to-Energy (WTE) ($80 to $llO/ton);
II GasificationlPyrolosis ($60 to $lOO/ton);
It Emerging technologies (e.g., ArrowBio) ($60 to $lOO/ton);
Based on the AUIR model, the County should start planning for the next "core" waste
management system within the next five years and be_poised for implementation by 2013.
It should be noted that vertical expansion of the Landfill may not result in any additional costs.
However, further analysis of the Landfill is required to ensure that this is achievable. Studies
could also be performed to assess the range of costs for out-of-County disposal as well as for
implementing non-disposal options such as MSW composting, WTE, GasificationlPyrolosis, or
any emerging technologies. In any event, it is likely that the next solid waste management
system will be more expensive than the current and projected costs associated with disposal at
the Landfill.
Recvclinf! Centers
In following the Integrated Solid Waste Management Plan three additional Recycling Centers
would be constructed in the areas of growth. The construction of the additional recycling
centers would help offset the amount of Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) being sent to the
landfill and thus prolonging the useful life of the Naples Landfill.
A Recycling Center is currently being planned to be built on County owned land in Orange
Tree. The cost of this facility will be $1.5 - $2 million. A facility near the Ave Maria growth
center would require the acquisition of 3 -5 acres of land and would cost approximately $300 -
$500 thousand and an additional $1.5 - $2 million to construct. The costs would be similar for
a facility built in the Eastern Estates/Big Cypress growth center.
- 27 -
IV. PARKS AND RECREATION
Collier County Parks & Recreation Division
Collier East of CR 951 Services & Infrastructure Horizon Study
Summary
The Collier County Parks and Recreation Department has developed costs for three levels of
capital improvement in connection with the build-out scenario: "status quo," "intermediate,"
and "premium." Status quo assumes continuation of cooperative development of sites with the
School District and improvement of sites within the current inventory. Intermediate assumes
continuation of cooperative development of sites with the School District and improvement of
sites within the current inventory and establishes a rural level of service standard for
community and regional parks. Premium assumes continuation of cooperative development of
sites with the School District and improvement of sites within the current inventory and
maintains the current adopted level of service standard for community and regional parks.
LEVEL 1: STATUS QUO
This level involves:
a) cooperative improvement of school sites
b) improvement of undeveloped community park land in inventory
c) improvement of undeveloped regional park land in inventory
Project: Unit Cost Total
a) Cooperative development of 8 school sites
b) Development of 1 community park!
c) Development of 2 regional parks2
$750,000 $6,000,000
$15,000,000 $15,000,000
$40,000,000 $80,000,000
TOTAL $101,000,000
The resulting additions to the developed inventory are:
8 school sites
1 community park
2 regional parks
I Manatee Community Park
2 Orangetree Park and Kaufmann (Vanderbilt Ext.) property
- 28 -
LEVEL 2: INTERMEDIATE (RURAL)
This level involves:
a) cooperative improvement of school sites
b) improvement of undeveloped community park land in inventory
c) improvement of undeveloped regional park land in inventory
d) purchase and development of community park land at a rural level of service
e) purchase and development of regional park land at a rural level of service
The rural level of service standards will be approximately 2/3 of the current adopted standards:
.75 acres per 1000 population LOSS for community park land
2 acres per 1000 population LOSS for regional park land
@ $750,000
@$15,000,000
@$40,000,000
@$200,000
@$15,000,000
@$200,000
@ $40,000,000
$6,000,000
$15,000,000
$80,000,000
$53,000.000
$45,000,000
$92,400,000
$80,000,000
TOTAL
$371,400,000
The resulting additions to the developed inventory are:
8 school sites
4 community parks
4 regional parks
3 Manatee Community Park
4 Orangetree Park and Kaufmann (Vanderbilt Ext.) property
5 At .75 per 1000516 acres are needed. Credit is given for 171 acres in inventory and 80 acres to be available
through school sites.
6 At 2 per 1000 1377 acres are needed. Credit is given for 212 acres in inventory and 703 acres to be acquired
through cooperative agreements.
II Manatee Community Park
- 29-
LEVEL 3: PREMIUM (URBAN)
This level involves:
a) cooperative improvement of school sites
b) improvement of undeveloped community park land in inventory
c) improvement of undeveloped regional park land in inventory
d) purchase and development of community park land at the adopted level of service
e) purchase and development of regional park land at the adopted level of service
The adopted level of service standards are:
1.2882 acres per 1000 population LOSS for community park land
2.9412 acres per 1000 population LOSS for regional park land
@ $750,000
@ $15,000,000
@ $40,000,000
@ $200,000
@ $15,000,000
@ $200,000
@ $40.000.000
TOTAL
The resulting additions to the developed inventory are:
8 school sites
8 community parks
7 regional parks
$6,000,000
$15,000,000
$80,000,000
$127,200.000
$105,000,000
$222,000,000
$200.000.000
$755,200,000
12 Orangetree Park and Kaufmann (Vanderbilt Ext.) property
13 At 1.2882 per 1000887 acres are needed. Credit is given for 171 acres in inventory and 80 acres to be available
through school sites.
14 At 2.9412 per 10002025 acres are needed. Credit is given for 212 acres in inventory and 703 acres to be
acquired through cooperative agreements.
19 Manatee Community Park
- 30-
--- ----I
!
Parks & Recreation Cost Options
_$ 7.5_5,200,QO_Q
$800,000,000
$700,000,000
$600,000,000 $371,400,000
$500,000,000
$400,000,000 ..
$300,000,000 .1 $101,000,000
$200,000,000-
$100,000,000 .
$0 .,
L___.
Status Quo-
Add 8 school, 1
community, 2
regional parks
Intermediate
(Rural)- add 8
school, 4
community, 4
regional parks
Premium
(Urban)- Add 8
school, 8
community, 7
regional parks
-
.___,__, ____. _J
- 31 -
V. SCHOOLS
Collier County School District
Collier East of CR 951 Services & Infrastructure Horizon Study
Summary
The Collier County School District has recognized_ and responds to the significant growth
occurring in areas east of 951 by constructing new schools and acquiring lands for future
schools within and immediately adjacent to the Golden Gate Estates and Immokalee areas.
There are a few important factors that must be considered when planning future schools and
their placement throughout the county. The School District, in accordance with Florida
Department of Education requirements, prepares a five year Capital Improvement Program. In
addition, the District also prepares a 20 year Capital Plan. The planning processes to prepare
these documents allows the School District to effectively address changing enrollment patterns,
development and growth, and sustains the facility requirements needed to support high quality
educational programs. The approach to the task of responding to the Collier East of CR951
Services and Infrastructure Horizon Study is to provide brief summaries of existing conditions
or "status quo" which includes future schools projected through 2025 as documented in the
School District's Capital Plan: 2005-2025, and estimated additional needs or "premium"
conditions based on a recent build out estimate of 688,489 provided by Collier County
Government. This response will not include an "Intermediate Response" for the following
reason. The School District is mandated to provide an education to all school age children that
seek a public education. Therefore, the School District must respond by providing permanent
or interim temporary facilities to meet the demand and an "intermediate" or "no build"
response to the demand for public educational services cannot be considered.
It should be noted that these estimates provided below are meant as very rough estimates. The
size of schools and their student capacities are approximate and based on current prototypes
and policies of the School Board and the Department of Education. Also land costs are not
included since there is very little data on land use, roads and land availability in areas that may
convert from agricultural uses to new towns and villages. These estimates will have to be
refined upon adoption of the Public Schools Facilities Element (PSFE) by the BCe prior to
March 1, 2008. The PSFE, per its statutory mandate, must contain a financially feasible
concurrency management system. The BCC and the School Board are charged with the
responsibility of developing the PSFE as a collaborative effort that serves the best interest of
both governing bodies as well as current and future residents of Collier County
As mentioned, this study calls for three graduated responses to growth, the first being "status
quo" or leaving things as they are today. As noted above, this is contrary to State and Federal
mandates to provide public school facilities. Therefore a no build scenario for this area is not
possible to provide. Level one analysis, therefore will include existing conditions for the area.
Level 2 will not be addressed and Level 3 or "Premium" will include the cost estimates for
meeting the student demand for population of 688,489.
- 32-
Levell - Status Quo
Within the geographic area of the study there are a total of 13 existing schools. Some schools
west of CR 951 currently have attendance boundaries that extend into the study area, but they
are not included in the total since it will be unlikely that they would continue to serve those
areas as populations increase and new schools are opened in the area. Of the 13 schools there
are two high schools, three middle schools and eight elementary schools. The School District
20 year Capital Plan includes two new high schools, four new middle schools and 7 elementary
schools. Since the Capital Plan was adopted three additional schools have been identified and
will be added when the Capital Plan is updated. Sites are being secured at this time and they
are for the Ave Maria Development. There will be one elementary, one middle school and one
high school added. Therefore based on the approved 20 Year Capital Plan and recent additions
to accommodate the impact of Ave Maria, there will be 3 new high schools, 5 new middle
schools and 8 new elementary schools by the year 2025.
Level 2 - Intermediate (Not applicable)
Level 3 - Premium
Given a total build-out estimate of 688,489, an estimated 72 schools would be needed for the
study area. Below is the number of existing schools, number of planned schools by 2025 and
the number of additional schools needed to accommodate the build out estimate.
School Type Existing Planned Additional Estimated Costs Total
by 2025 Needed by in 2005 Dollars Schools
Build-out Year (Does not include Estimated
land costs) as
Needed at
Build-out
Year
Elementary 8 8 27 486,000,000 43
Middle 3 5 8 198,000,000 16
High School 2 3 8 360,000,000 13
Total 13 16 43 1,044,000,000 72
The estimated costs of providing 43 additional schools is $1,044,000,000 in current dollars.
The total number of schools is based on current capacities of existing schools and the number
of students per total population Countywide. Currently, 12.9 percent of Collier eounty
population is attending Collier County Public Schools. The percentage of students to
population is higher in Golden Gate Estates, approximately 18%. But, for the general purposes
of this study the more conservative number is used, since the rural areas may likely develop
similarly in densities and community types as in the Urban Area.
- 33 -
$1,200,000,000
$1,044,000,000
$1,000,000,000-1
I
$800,000,000 :
I
!
i
I
1$486,000,000
$360,000,000
$600,000,0001
* $400,000,000-1
$200,000,000 - i
I
$0:
$198,000,000
$198,000,000
8 i
____________l
High School
$360,000,000
8
Total
$1,044,000,000 '
43..____J
* Excludes Land Cost
- 34-
FUTURE SCHOOLS LOCA TI ON 1\1AP
COLLIER COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS
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- 35 -
VI. STORMWATER MANAGEMENT
Collier County Stormwater Management
Collier East of CR 951 Services & Infrastructure Horizon Study
Summary
The land incorporated into this evaluation consists primarily of northern Golden Gate Estates,
the recently established Stewardship Land Areas to the east of Golden Gate Estates, and the
Belle MeadelNorth Belle Meade area. The next few paragraphs will discuss northern Golden
Gate Estates (north of 1-75).
NORTH GOLDEN GATE ESTATES
Existine: Conditions
The Golden Gate Estates drainage system was designed in the early 1960' s under the concept
of draining a large cypress wetland area to create relatively dry land for rural residential
development on typical five-acre lots. The roadway network was established to connect
typical mile long residential streets at quarter mile spacing. Housing was to be constructed on
an elevated foundation system. Drainage was provided by roadside swales connecting to a
canal system designed for a 1O-year/24-hour storm event. Potable water was to be provided by
shallow wells while individual septic systems (slightly mounded above the wet season water
table) disposed of wastewater. The basic development patterns in Golden Gate Estates have
remained the same for over forty years.
Shortly after construction of the Golden Gate Estates canal systems in 1962-63, it was
observed that excessive drainage was having a negative impact on existing vegetation in some
areas, resulting in unusually dry conditions that also impacted fire conditions and water
supplies. A series of weirs were installed to reduce the over drainage. During periods of wet
weather, typically each summer, much of the land was slightly above the canal water levels,
but was inundated during periods of heavy rainfall. Road construction was typically at grade
or slightly above grade, resulting in frequent problems, especially where the roads traversed
existing sloughs or wetland flow ways. Roadside swales were not sloped to drain toward the
canals, they simply followed the topography. A rapid invasion of exotic aquatic vegetation
quickly reduced the effective capacity of the canals.
By default and in conjunction with a settlement agreement with the developer, the County
assumed responsibility for maintaining the roads and canals. As more land owners began to
build houses, the demand for increased maintenance services brought about changes in the
County's efforts. Also, numerous lot splits created smaller, narrow, building lot sizes and
more impervious area than originally designed. The placement of fill pads for building homes
on these narrow lots often created long continuous restrictions to existing sheet flow drainage
patterns.
Stormwater facility maintenance was not seriously undertaken by the County until 1983 when
the Water Management Department was established. Hydrilla and other aquatic vegetation had
grown so dense that some of the canals were "mowed" using floating harvesters to cut through
- 36 -
the dense masses. A program of aquatic herbicide applications was established to kill back
much of the vegetation and re-establish flow conveyance capacity.
Level of Service
In 1989 the Level of Service for stormwater management was defined by a qualitative analysis
of compliance with desired objectives for flood control, water quality and groundwater aquifer
recharge. How well those objectives were met was based upon the 1O-year/24-hour design
storm event for the Golden Gate Estates area. Of the seven (7) drainage sub-basins within
Golden Gate Estates east of CR-951, six (6) of them had an adopted level of service level "D"
and one had an adopted level of service "C". Each of these sub-basins was determined to meet
the criteria for water quality and groundwater aquifer recharge, but only one met the desired
level of flood control.
Level of Service "D" indicates that during the design storm event, flooding can be expected to
spread outside the limits of the canals, inundate yards and streets, and in some locations be
deep enough to enter houses. Level of Service "e" indicates that during the design storm
event, flooding can be expected to spread outside the limits of the canals and will cover the
streets and yards. Level of Service "B" indicates that during the design storm event, flooding
can be expected to spread outside the limits of the canals and will cover some areas of yards.
Level of Service "A" indicates that during the design storm event, the waters will be contained
within the banks of the canals.
The continued development of Golden Gate Estates east of CR-951 has had an impact on all
three areas of evaluation criteria for Level of Service. The eounty made many improvements
to the residential streets and swales, and Golden Gate Blvd. has been totally reconstructed as a
4-lane urban cross section highway from CR-951 to Wilson Blvd. The Big Cypress Basin has
provided increased levels of maintenance to the canal systems and modified several of the
weirs to maintain higher dry season water table elevations, while simultaneously passing peak
wet season flows at lower elevations. All of these efforts have some effect on total stormwater
quality and quantity leaving the area as well as groundwater aquifer recharge.
Future Buildout Issues
As development in Golden Gate Estates continues toward total build-out, several issues
affecting level of service are worth considering at this time.
· design storm event
· elevation
· increasedJhardened impervious area
· loss of floodplain storage capacity
Design Storm Event - The original drainage design for Golden Gate Estates was a 1O-year/24-
hour design storm event. Based upon a very rural, southwest Florida environment where large
land areas were frequently inundated by standing or slowly flowing water for long periods
during the summer "wet" season, it was understood by many of the initial residents that the
Estates were nothing more than a "drained swamp" that could be expected to have standing
water during the summer. As more and more people began to buy land and construct homes,
the demand for increased drainage to prevent the "flooding" likewise increased. Many people
- 37 -
purchased land in the Estates under the assumption that their roads and yards would be dry
similar to an urban residential area.
The County's level of service for urban areas is based upon a 25-yearI72-hour design storm
event. This event produces a greater rainfall over a longer duration. The impacts of a 25-
yearl72-hour rainfall event on the Golden Gate Estates area would overwhelm the existing
drainage system for several days before the excess runoff could discharge out of the area.
Should there be a desire to begin the process to improve the system to adequately handle the
25-yearI72-hour design storm event; there are several major obstacles that would need to be
addressed.
The primary obstacle would be where to put all the excess stormwater runoff, and how to get it
there quick enough to prevent massive flooding. There are two major outlets for the north
Golden Gate Estates area, the Main Golden Gate Canal discharging west and the Faka Union
Canal system discharging south. In the Main Golden Gate Canal area, much of the land along
the western portion of the system has already experienced near build-out conditions and there
is a great concern that the canal already discharges excessive amounts of fresh water into the
brackish Naples Bay. In the Faka Union Canal system, the receiving body is the Picayune
Strand Restoration area which has undergone extensive analysis by the SFWMD and U.S.
Army Corps of Engineers and has an identified allowable discharge into the Picayune Strand
Restoration area. The SFWMD is currently designing the large stormwater pumping stations
that will provide capacity equivalent to 100-year/120-hour design storm peak flood stage
conditions in the year 2000 when the project was initiated. However, the SFWMD has
repeatedly emphasized that the Picayune Strand Restoration project is not a flood control
project and they are not planning improvements to the canals north of the pump stations.
Elevation - The elevation of existing homes and the relatively flat topography are two issues of
importance when considering storm water management and possible changes. The typical
Golden Gate Estates home is built on a fill pad with a slab elevation either 18" or 24" above
the centerline of the road in front of the house. The design of the septic drain field also has a
major impact on determining the elevation of the house slab. Through the years the FDEP's
interpretation of the rules for determination of the wet season water table has changed, with
more recent construction having higher elevations to meet the minimum clearance distance
below the bottom of the drain field. However, older homes were often constructed at
substantially lower elevations, so increased wet season water table elevations or peak
stormwater stages can cause failures to older septic system long before frequent flooding
becomes an issue.
IncreasedlHarden lmpervious Area - The continued development of houses and related
facilities in Golden Gate Estates increases the amount if impervious surface (roofs, driveways,
pools, asphalt roads, etc.) and hardened surfaces (compacted house pads, lime rock driveways,
etc.) that causes an increased amount of stormwater runoff. Initial design assumptions of a
typical small house on a five-acre tract for Golden Gate Estates drainage are being exceeded.
This increased runoff puts an additional strain on the conveyance capacity of the roadside
swales and canals.
Loss of Floodplain Storage Capacity - The placement of large amounts of fill onto the
relatively flat topography creates impediments to sheet flow and eliminates areas where
stormwater runoff previously could be temporarily stored. North Golden Gate Estates is not
- 38 -
technically identified as a floodplain on the Flood Insurance Rate Maps published by the
Federal Emergency Management Agenc.y: However, it is important to o_hserve that as more
and more land is impacted by fill, the stormwater is displaced onto remaining vacant tracts or
onto older developed tracts that aren't filled quite as high. This places another strain on the
existing drainage system of swales and canals and can result in higher peak stages that can
affect septic drain fields and houses. Related to this issue, the SFWMD considered the
increase in runoff from impervious area at build-out when designing the Picayune Strand
Restoration pump stations, but did not consider the loss of existing surface storage volume as
the topography changes from the numerous fill pads and filled yards.
THE STEWARDSHIP LAND AREAS OUTSIDE OF GOLDEN GATE ESTATES
The proposed development of the Stewardship Land areas to the east of Golden Gate Estates
will be based upon meeting current urban development criteria in compliance with the current
rules of the SFWMD. Development projects will be designed using detention areas for water
quality treatment and gradual release of this treated stormwater through control structures with
regulated discharge rates that will maintain wet season groundwater elevations. The peak rate
of discharge from these developed areas will not exceed existing discharge rates, and usually
will be less. The potential for increased total volume of stormwater discharged may become an
issue in certain situations. Large wetland areas will be preserved and possibly utilized for
temporary storage of treated stormwater. The impact of development in the Stewardship Land
Areas is not expected to create problems for the north Golden Gate Estates area. Careful
coordination will need to be maintained between the County and the SFWMD to account for
the total discharge flowing south toward the Picayune Strand Restoration area pump stations.
BELLE MEADEINORTH BELLE MEADE AREA
Existing Conditions
Belle Meade is a large area of land containing undeveloped, scattered rural residential, urban
residential, and agricultural land east of CR-951, south of 1-75, west of the Picayune Strand
Restoration area (south blocks of Golden Gate Estates), and extending south of US-41 to tidal,
estuarine waters north of Marco Island. Most of the development areas are located along the
western fringe (east side of eR-951) and along both sides of US-41. Along US-41 the
predominate development was agricultural, but extensive urban residential and some
commercial have replaced some of the agricultural land uses. The northern and east central
regions are basically undeveloped with vast areas of wetlands interspersed with scattered
uplands.
The North Belle Meade is simply an extension of the Belle Meade area north of I-75, with
north Golden Gate Estates to the north and east, 1-75 to the south, and various other land uses,
including the County's landfill to the west. The region is basically undeveloped with vast
areas of wetlands interspersed with scattered uplands.
There has not been any single overall organized plan for the various development and drainage
features within the Belle MeadeINorth Belle Meade area. The two major drainage features are
the canal along the east side of CR-951 and the canal along the north side of US-41. Both of
these canals were excavated as sources of fill to construct the adjacent roads, with no specific
design storm capacity. Within the agricultural, rural residential and urban residential
- 39-
developed areas there are numerous drainage canals, ditches and lakes, but most of these are
privately owned and maintained.
In the mid 1980's a Water Management Master Plan was prepared for this area, and it
identified areas proposed for conservation, areas for development, and major drainage facilities
that would be needed to make development possible. This report was not well received by
either the land owners or the environmental community. The existing, limited drainage
features typically become overwhelmed during above average wet season rains and then
function to over drain some portions of the area in the dry season. A canal system, somewhat
following the recommendations of the old Belle Meade Water Management Master Plan, was
designed south of US-41 to provide some flooding relief to lands immediately adjacent to the
north side of USA1. This canal system has been incorporated into the backbone drainage
outfall system of the large Fiddler's Creek development.
Level of Service
The Belle MeadeINorth Belle Meade area covers several drainage basins and sub-basins
identified on the County's Drainage Atlas maps. Level of Service "D" is common throughout
the area, based upon limited conveyance capacity for a 25-year/3-day design storm event.
Continued development within this area will not improve the Level of Service without the
development and implementation of a stormwater master plan.
Future Build-out Issues
In 2003, the County and the Big Cypress Basin developed a scope of services for the
preparation of the Belle Meade Stormwater Master Plan. The County did not fund the study,
so the Big Cypress Basin agreed to provide funding for the study with the County assuming
responsibility for permitting and construction of identified improvements. That study is being
finalized in 2006, and it will be a very useful tool in the development of the required watershed
management plan for this area.
Issues that have been identified in the preliminary drafts of this Belle Meade Stormwater
Master Plan include the impacts of the Picayune Strand Restoration project, water quality and
quantity in the CR-951 canal and the large agricultural areas, possible rehydration of North
Belle Meade utilizing excess water in the Main Golden Gate Canal, and possible restoration of
flow ways through the large agricultural area as future "village style" residential development
is constructed in the agricultural area.
PLANNING DECISION ISSUES
This East of CR-951 Horizon Study has been prepared to discuss the major planning issues that
will impact the health, safety, and welfare of the many development activities that will occur
over the next 10-15 years until most of the area is built out.
Following this East of CR 951 Stormwater Management Summary is a map of the Collier
County Drainage Basins as prepared by the CDES Environmental Services Department. Initial
consultations with the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD), Florida
Department of Environmental Protection (FDEP), and Big Cypress Basin have identified
subject areas that warrant consideration in the study. These subject areas are consistent with
- 40-
objectives and policies set forth in the County's Growth Management Plan (GMP). The areas
that warrant consideration include county watershed management _plans, stormwater
infrastructure improvements, water quality in the study area and receiving water bodies, and
the coordination of planning efforts that deal with stormwater and water quality. The BCe has
prioritized the County's watershed management plans at the recent EAR-based amendments
adoption public hearing on May 15, 2006. Stormwater management is a component of the
broader watershed management efforts and will be essential to support implementation of the
resulting watershed management plans.
The BCC recognized the systemic problem with the County's watershed management planning
in the County's Evaluation and Appraisal Report (EAR) that was found in compliance by the
Florida Department of Community Affairs. The BCC directed Comprehensive Planning staff to
create a new policy that would promote intergovernmental coordination between the County
and other agencies involved in watershed management and planning. In furtherance of this
policy, the BCC directed staff to extend the date for the completion of all county watershed
management plans. More specifically and applicable to the East of CR951 Study area, the BCC
directed staff to develop policies to ensure that watershed management plans are incorporated
into wetland protection strategies within the Estates Designation and Rural Settlement Areas,
as well as all other areas in the County.
It could be difficult to prepare Watershed Management Plans for all of the eounty's
watersheds at the same time given resource and staffing constraints. Fortunately, some of the
watersheds in the County are already the subject of planning, either under the Comprehensive
Everglades Restoration Plan (e.g., Southern Golden Gate Estates) or under the Surface Water
Improvement and Management Plan process (e.g., Naples Bay), and the County's Plans can be
coordinated with these plans.
Planning decisions that will impact the direction and focus of watershed management plans
need to be made in advance. Stormwater management system improvements are broken down
into three levels (status quo, intermediate and premium) with specific projects set forth in each
level where applicable.
North Golden Gate Estates
Level 1- Status Quo
This level of planning effort recognizes that the existing Level of Service allows for some
house flooding to occur at the 1O-year/24-hour design storm rainfall or higher. Emphasis
would be placed only on maintenance efforts while allowing the Big Cypress Basin to make
improvements to the primary canals and weirs as it deems necessary. The previously discussed
issues of increased impervious/hardened area, placement of fill within the floodplain, and
impeding natural flow ways will potentially increase flooding depths, duration and frequency,
but Level of Service would remain at the "D" level. Cost would be minimal beyond normal
maintenance costs.
Level 2 - Intermediate
This level of planning effort recognizes that the existing Level of Service is not desirable and
improvements to stormwater management facilities need to be made to achieve a Level of
- 41 -
Service "B". The design storm event would continue to be based upon a 1O-yearI24-hour
design storm event, but peak stages would be limited to minor yard flooding, and streets and
houses would not be flooded. This improvement to the Level of Service could possibly
incorporate the construction of stormwater storage areas to serve each residential street, road
and roadside swale reconstructions, elevating selected houses, re-establishment of flow ways
blocked by continual fill pad construction, construction of large pump stations to discharge
excess stormwater from the Main Golden Gate Canal into the North Belle Meade area, limiting
the placement of fill for development activities, etc. Costs could be anticipated to reach $200-
300 million, based heavily upon the acquisition of land and/or easements to allow room for
constructed improvements. Due to the spatial extent of this area, a long term program of
construction would need to be developed to allow for a reasonable achievement of success at a
reasonable level of funding.
Level 3 - Premium
This level of planning effort recognizes that the existing Level of Service is not desirable and
improvements to stormwater management facilities needs to be made to achieve a Level of
Service "A" for the 1O-yearI24-hour design storm event, or possibly a Level of Service "B" for
the 25-yearI72-hour design storm event. It recognizes that it may not be possible to achieve the
satisfactory Level of Service based upon the 25-yearI72-hour storm event due to physical and
environmental permitting constraints. The types of possible facilities would be similar to the
Level 2, but could be expected to be greater in number and extent, including the consideration
of above ground pumped detention storage areas. Costs could be anticipated to exceed $300
million based heavily upon the acquisition of land and/or easements to allow room for
constructed improvements. Due to the spatial extent of this area, a long term program of
construction would need to be developed to allow for a reasonable achievement of success at
what would probably be a high level of funding.
Stewardship Land Areas Outside of Golden Gate Estates
Since this area is just starting to develop, it will be designed to comply with current stormwater
management requirements and will address areas where existing agricultural lands may need to
be restored to pre-existing conditions to promote water quality and regional sheet flow
conditions. This report does not propose to address issues for these areas.
Belle Meade/North Belle Meade
Levell - Status Quo
This level of planning effort recognizes that the existing Level of Service "D" allows for some
house flooding occurring at the 25-yearI72-hour design storm rainfall or higher. Emphasis
would be placed only on maintenance efforts and requiring new development to provide Level
of Service "B" while not creating more severe flooding outside their property boundaries.
Level 1 would place the County in the position of possibly not following up with
implementation of recommendations in the Belle Meade Stormwater Master Plan which is
currently the only funded stormwater management plan or planned program to address existing
and future water within the Study area. The status quo level would continue to rely upon
- 42-
federal and state programs to address stormwater management problems/issues when funding
becomes available with no capital outlay..by the BCC
Level 2 - Intermediate
This level of planning recognizes that the existing Level of Service is not desirable and
improvements to stormwater management facilities need to be made to achieve a Level of
Service "B" to those areas that are and/or will be developed while also providing protection
against over drainage of those areas that will be reCDmmended for preservation/conservation
land usage. Level 2 recognizes the potential for conflicting interests in that there may be areas
of valuable mineral extraction (rock); that there may be areas where flowway restoration may
conflict with individual development interests; and that the ultimate water quantity and quality
to be discharged into the tidal estuarine area north of Marco Island may require different
stormwater management planning direction than that currently being considered. Because
there are so many variables and options that could be considered in this Level 2, and
recognizing that many of the stormwater management issues may be addressed by
development, no cost estimate was prepared.
Level 3 - Premium
This level of planning recognizes the need to provide for a Level of Service "A" to those areas
that are and/or will be developed while also providing protection against over drainage of those
areas that will be recommended for preservation/conservation land usage. Level 3 recognizes
the need to preserve most of the undeveloped areas and restore severed flow ways north of US-
41. Because there are so many variables and options that could be considered in this Level 3,
and recognizing that many of the stormwater management issues may be addressed by
development, no cost estimate was prepared.
The map on the next page shows the locations of Collier County Drainage Basins. The area of
the East of CR-951 Horizon Study is located within, but does not include all of the land within,
the following drainage basins:
· Main Golden Gate Canal Basin
· Henderson Creek Basin
· Fakahatchee Strand Basin
· Faka Union Canal Basin
· Southern Coastal Basin
- 43-
legend
D Drainage Basins
Barron River
Canal Basin
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Created By GIS COES I Enviroomenlal Services
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Date:9111U5
- 44-
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VII. LIBRARIES
Collier County Public Libraries
Collier East of CR 951 Services & Infrastructure Horizon Study
Summary
Contained within this East of 951 Study Summary are two spreadsheets that list library
locations with proposed facility sizes and the book collection needs. Costs of both construction
and books are listed in 2005 dollars. Levels of service include the Status Quo, Intermediate,
and Premium.
The Annual Update and Inventory Report (AUIR) directs the Library to maintain .33 square
feet per capita and 1.75 books per capita. Libraries are not subject to statutory concurrency
management requirements and service levels are not mandated. For the purposes of this study,
The following standards were used:
Status Quo: 1.75 books per capita and .20 square feet per capita.
Intermediate: 1.75 books per capita and .27 square feet per capita.
Premium: 1.75 books per capita and .33 square feet per capita.
Although the intent of this project is to plan for service to the new county residents who are
expected to live 'East of eR/SR 951', the Library recognizes that the majority of Library
patrons visit libraries other than the one closest to their home, as well as the closest library.
Some facilities, therefore, may be geographically located 'west of SR/CR 951', but provide
service to those living 'East of SR/CR 951'.
The South Regional Library will be located just west of SR/CR 951, but will provide service to
the large populations moving into the East of951 and U.S. 41 south area.
This projection provides 353,878 square feet of Library space for the 1,066,420 projected
residents of Collier County. Emphasis was on construction East of 951 and on facilities like the
South Regional Library that would provide primary service to this population.
Levell - Status Quo
This level of service for facilities includes all existing library facilities, three planned and
budgeted construction projects, and two projected library facilities. The planned facilities are:
the South Regional Library; the Golden Gate expansion; and the meeting room addition to
Marco Island. The projected facilities are: Orange Tree and Fiddlers' Creek.
This level of service for book collections includes purchase of books for the additional 700,000
people projected by this study, at the current collection level of 1.75 books per capita. The
average cost of a book is currently calculated at $25.
Costs: Facilities:
$25,800,000 for 86,000 square feet
.20 square feet / capita
- 45 -
Books:
$30,625,000 for 1,260,000 additional books
_-. 1.75 books / capita
Other Materials: Currently budgeted at about $7 per square foot. Cost
for additional square footage is about $602,000.
Total Cost: $57,027,000
Level 2 - Intermediate
Service at this level assumes the libraries previously discussed still exist. The following
additions are built:
Immokalee - 5,000 square feet
Estates Branch - 10,000 square feet
Everglades City - 2,000 square feet
South Regional - 30,000 square feet
Orange Tree - 2(),dOO square feet
Books per capita remain at 1.75. No additional book purchases are made for this level of
serVIce.
Costs: Facilities:
$20,100,000 for 67,000 square feet
.27 square feet / capita
Books:
No additional books over Status Quo level
1.75 books / capita
Other Materials: Currently budgeted at about $7 per square foot. Cost
for additional square footage is about $469,000.
Total Cost: $20,569,000 above Status Quo cost
Level 3 - Premium
Service at this level assumes the libraries previously discussed still exist. The following
additions are built:
Immokalee - 20,000 square feet
South Regional - 20,000 square feet
Orange Tree - 20,000 square feet
Fiddlers' Creek - 10,000 square feet
Books per capita remain at 1.75. No additional book purchases are made for this level of
servIce.
Costs: Facilities:
$21,000,000 for 70,000 square feet
.33 square feet / capita
Books:
No additional books over Status Quo level
1.75 books / capita
- 46-
Other Materials: Currently budgeted at about $7 per square foot. Cost
for additional square footage is about $490,000.
Total Cost: $21,490,000 above Intermediate cost
r--
-.-----
i
Library Cost 2005 Dollars
$80,000,000
$100,000,000.
$60,000,0001
i
$40,000,000,1
$20,000,000
$0 J".
I Level 1 - Status Quo
Level 2 - Intenrediate
I,
Level 3 - Prenium
IlJ Library Cost 2005 Dollars
$57,027,000
$77,596,000
$99,086,000
Books Needed for East of 951 Study
C 11' C P b1' L'b
o ler ounty u lC 1 rarv
Library
Books Librarv Books Librarv Books
Status Ouo Intermediate Premium
1.75 books I No addition to Status No addition to
capita Ouo Status Quo
Books Need for
Build-out
Population Increase 1,260.000
of 700,000 people 0 0
Cost of books for
additional 700,000
Ipeople $30.625,000 $0 $0
Cost I book = $25
(2005 prices)
The Library also purchases audiovisual from ad valorem dollars. Items purchased include
periodicals, videocassettes, DVDs, audio books, musical CDs, and electronic databases. In FY06,
approximately $900,000 is budgeted for these items. This is approximately $7 per square foot for
other library materials.
- 47-
Library ConstructIOn OvervIew
Library Construction
Status Quo
Total Square
Libraries Footal!e Planned
Library Construction
Intermediate
Total Square
Libraries Footage Planned
Library Construction
Premium
Total Square
Libraries Footage Planned
Headquarters 42,000 Headquarters 42,000 Headquarters 42,000
Naples Branch 35,851 Naples Branch 35,851 Naples Branch 35,851
Vanderbilt Beach 7,000 Vanderbilt Beach 7,000 Vanderbilt Beach 7,000
Golden Gate 24,000 Golden Gate 24,000 Golden Gate 24,000
East Naples 6,600 East Naples 6,600 East Naples 6,600
Everglades City 900 Everglades City 2,900 Everglades City 2,900
Marco Island 16,345 Marco Island 16,345 Marco Island 16,345
Immokalee 8,000 Immokalee 13,000 Immokalee 23,000
Estates Branch 11,182 Estates Branch 21,182 Estates Branch 21, 182
South Regional 30,000 South Regional 60,000 South Regional 60,000
Orange Tree 30,000 Orange Tree 50,000 Orange Tree 70,000
Big Cypress - 0- Big Cypress - 0 - Big Cypress 30,000
Fiddlers Creek 10,000 Fiddlers Creek 10,000 Fiddlers Creek 20,000
Total Sq. Ft. 221,878 fotal Sq. Ft. 288,878 Total Sq. Ft. 358,878
SQ. Footal!e includes: SQ. Foota2e includes: SQ. Footal!e includes:
FY07: MI - 4,000 sq. ft FY16+: 1M - 5,000 sq. ft. FY16+: IM -10,000sq.ft.
FY07: SR - 30,000 sq. ft FY16+: EB - 10,000 sq. ft. FY 16+: OT - 20, doo sq. ft.
FY07: GG - 17,000 sq. ft. FY16+: EV - 2,000 sq. ft. FY16+: FC-10,000sq.ft.
FY16+: FC - 10,000 sq. ft. FY16+: SR - 30,000 sq. ft. FY16+: BC 30,000 sq. ft.
FY16+: OT - 30,000 sq. ft. FY16+: OT - 20,000 sq. ft.
(86,000 sq ft total) 67,000 sq ft total) (70,000 sq ft total)
0.21 sa ft / capita 0.27 ft / capita 0.34 sa ft / capita
Construction Construction
86,000 Planned 67,000 Construction Planned 70,000 Planned
$ 300 Cost/sq.ft. $ 300 Cost/sq.ft. $ 300 Cost/sq.ft.
Construction Costs / Construction Costs / Construction Costs /
$ 25,800,000 Level $20,100,000 Level $ 21,000,000 Level
Population at Build-out = 1,066,420
Square Footage Required @ .33 sq. ft. I capita
Square Footage Needed for Premium Level = 223,000 sq. ft.
Total Constructions for Premium Level = $66,900,000
- 48-
VIII. FIRE DISTRICTS
Collier County Fire Districts
Collier East of CR 951 Services & Infrastructure Horizon Study
Summary
F.( r... 4~:rh. I:J~n: Fi ;.
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a. BIG CORKSCREW ISLAND FIRE CONTROL AND RESCUE DISTRICT
(Source: letter dated August 1, 2005, FROM Chief Rita Greenberg to Property Owners,
Developers, Collier County, Public Schools)
The Big Corkscrew Island Fire Control and Rescue District is seeking to secure properties for
future growth and development. Insurance Services Organizations (ISO) provides insurance
companies with a Fire Protection Class Number (1-10), and their ideal situation is to have a
Fire Station every 3-5 miles. The District encompasses 197 square miles, which is ISO Terms
equates to 39.4 stations. While the District understands that this does seem a bit ludicrous, the
District attempts to provide its citirlens the best possible coverage within our means. Properties
associated with a Fire Protection Class of a 10 are considered to be "uninsurable" by many
carriers; because a 10 from ISO means that there is no fire protection available. Other carriers
have awardedlrec1assed these properties as a 9 because they fall into the boundaries of the Fire
District. Currently the District's rating is a Class 5 if the residence is within 5 road miles of the
.. 49..
fire station and a class 10 outside that 5-mile limitation. The insurance premium charged is
directly related to the Fire Protection Class. number, and the difference between a Class 5 and a
Class 9/1 0 can be hundreds of dollars and in some instances the carrier will not even write the
policy.
The growth that Collier County is facing poses an interesting problem in regards to the above _
as a large part of this growth is in the rural part of the County. The District is currently looking
to secure 3 parcels of land for future use to help reduce those areas considered to be
"uninsurable" (see map on following page). The location of the 3 areas is key to the success of
this goal as well as continuing to provide efficient and effective service to the Districts
residents and property owners.
The 5 year plan and map of the district that are attached, are representative of the
growth/development that the County anticipates, within our District boundaries. The map
shows existing facilities what we have determined to be suitable locations for future facilities
based on call load, response time, anticipated growth and the 5-mile window for insurance
classifications. A site located in the vicinity of CR 858 and Desoto Blvd is an ideal location
for our next facility - it centralizes current development and some future development amongst
our existing facilities. A 5-10 acre tract would be ideal - it would allow for a full-scale
administrative facility, a 24-hour operational facility, a training facility and possible a
maintenance facility as well. Other sites could be as small as 1 1;4 - 2 Y2 acres. Based upon an
estimated $200,000 - $325,000 per acre land acquisition cost associated within the District, a
cost range of $1,500,000 to $4,875,000 for land acquisition is projected. The future cost of
construction has not been determined, but best estimate would indicate that construction costs
and equipment will exceed land acquisition costs by a minimum factor of three. A
comprehensive cost analysis for future fire district facilities have not been provided as the Fire
Districts are special districts with their own taxing authority, which is outside the scope of
Collier county's ad valorum taxing authority.
Currently it is taking up to 18 months to obtain permits and an approved SDP, and an estimate
of 6 months to a year for construction (a process of at least 2 years), if the process runs
smoothly. Therefore it is the District's goal to secure properties in advance of utilizing them,
with the intent of having the permit process completed and construction underway (if not
completed) as the need for services arises, not after it has already happened.
b. GOLDEN GATE FIRE DISTRICT
The Golden Gate Fire District has been an active participant in this Study. Information for this
preliminary report is pending an independent consulting product, which will help determine
future Levels of Service and locations. Additional coordination will follow its receipt of the
Transportation and Public Utilities outside reports.
c. IMMOKALEE FIRE DISTRICT
(No response received to date)
d. OCHOPEE FIRE DISTRICT
(No response received to date)
- 50-
without additional resources allocated. The current operating costs for these 4 stations are
roughly estimated to be $497,752 per year..
Level 2 - Intermediate
Once we have identified that the growth plan calls for 45.7 EMS units to keep up with growth,
there are only a certain number of things that can be done to minimize the fiscal impact. Chief
among these is co-location. By co-locating our stations with other emergency agencies we have
saved as much as 40% on capital expense of the structure itself. There is also the possibility of
long-term leases with other agencies.
There is however at least one major disadvantage with this model if widely implemented.
Currently when a call comes in, both EMS and Fire will typically respond to certain calls as
most Fire Depts. have at least Basic Life Support capabilities. If they are both responding from
the same building, there is no opportunity for one or the other to arrive significantly faster.
They will effectively have nearly identical response times. This affects both the response time
as well as the overall effectiveness of inter-agency cooperative response agreements. So a
trade-off of sorts must be considered. Does the 40% savings of up front capital costs outweigh
the less efficient performance of monies spent for every year after? Additionally, it must also
be noted the fire stations are often planned for and located due to issues such as "fire loads"
rather than emergency call volumes and therefore may not be placed where an EMS station
would be best utilized.
Also included in this level are 2 stations that include remote storage for Emergency
Management resources and some limited office space. These would be located in the northeast
quadrant of the county to provide for a more uniform presence throughout the county as well as
serving as a backup for some services in the case of a disaster involving the EOC itself.
Lastly, an additional helicopter added to our Medflight program is warranted at a cost of 4
million for the helicopter itself and an additional 3 million for the building and equipment
(fueling systems, EMS flight equipment, etc.). Depending on whether the Collier County
Sheriffs Office Helicopter was still located at the Naples Airport as it is now, it is possible that
Medflight Two could be located with Medflight One as a cost saving measure to prevent
having to build another hanger at another location. This combines several equipment costs, but
hurts overall response as well as increases the probability of loosing both aircraft in a disaster
involving the airport.
Level 3 - Premium
Finally, while not adding additional units beyond what is called for in the AUIR, the premium
EMS service would feature each unit in its own station. These stations would be spaced as
evenly as possible while taking into account Fire Stations, population centers, and traffic
concerns in order to maximize response effectiveness from every agency. Where density
warranted it, some savings could be realized by locating more than a single unit in a station.
This is likely to be true in parts of Immokalee as well as some of the larger planned villages.
A map of what this premium service might look like is included; however, due to an
understandable lack of reliable data from other agencies and depts., it should be taken as only a
very rough guide at this point. Additionally, it is assumed that these stations will go up
- 53 -
gradually as needed and that response time studies could drastically alter their placements to fit
real world needs.
In this option the second helicopter is located at or near the Immokalee Airport giving us
Medflight response capability on opposing sides of the county.
Costs (in 2005 dollars, includes land cost)
Levell -Status Quo
Yearly operating cost for 4 existing Stations = $497,752
Total $497,752
Level 2 - Intermediate
41 Fully Equipped Ambulances = $7,995,000 est.
20 Fully Equipped EMS Stations = $ 36,000,000 est.
19 Co-located Fully Equipped EMS/Fire Stations = $24,700,000 est.
1 Fully Equipped EMS St wi Emergency Mgmt Space = $ 2,000,000 est.
1 Fully Equipped EMS St w/satellite EMS admin/training facility. = $3,800.000
1 Fully Equipped Hanger and Helicopter = $7,000,000 est.
Total $81,495,000 est.
Level 3 - Premium
41 Fully Equipped Ambulances = $7,995,000 est.
41 Fully Equipped EMS Stations = $ 73,800,000 est.
1 EMS satellite training and administration building wi remote Emergency Mgmt capability =
$ 4,000,000 est.
1 Fully Equipped Hanger and Helicopter = $7,000,000 est.
Total $92,795,000 est.
I
I
I
1
1
EMS Cost Including Land Cost
$100,000,000
$8j~495,OOO
$80,000,000;
I
$60,000.0001
I
I
$40.000.000.1
i
$20.000,0001
I
$0 I'
Level 1 - Status [ Le~1 2 - I L I 3 P . 1
I ! eve - remlum 'I
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i ~~t in 05 DOII~_~~--= $497,752, ~-.!~1,49~~~9_--L $92'~9~
$497,752
!,Ji~~;::~:~:~'~'>;":~;i~:~~~;~~~t .,,';."'.~,. .,.
- 54-
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- 55 -
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- 56 -
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~-~~";"-,"';""'..,,,:-~-
x. COLLIER COUNTY SHERIFF'S OFFICE
Collier County Sheriff's Department
Collier East of CR 951 Services & Infrastructure Horizon Study
Summary
The Collier County Sheriff's Office (CCSO) is dedicated to bringing the best possible law
enforcement services to the residents of Collier County. In conjunction with providing law
enforcement services, the CCSO is responsible for providing adequate correctional facilities in
Collier County. The CCSO task in the East of CR951 study area is consistent with the overall
objective of continuing to provide the best law enforcement services possible and maintaining
adequate correctional facilities.
The CCSO was involved in the stakeholders group from the inception of the study. The LOS
for law enforcement services and correctional facilities are set forth with specificity in the 2006
impact fee ordinance for law enforcement and the 2006 impact fee ordinance for correctional
facilities. Please note that the most recent AUIR established LOS for law enforcement and
correctional facilities.
The CCSO minimum LOS standard for Law Enforcement is 2.13 officers (1.96 officers in
1999) per 1000 population. The impact fee calculation and the new derived LOS standard
assumed that Collier County's population would double in size between 2005 and 2025.
Furthermore, the 2005 impact fee ordinance for law enforcement states the "planned
improvements in the Law Enforcement Facilities Master Plan and Capital Improvements
Element are fully or partially necessitated by new development." The Law Enforcement
Impact Fee Ordinance also states the "the Board and the Collier eounty Sheriff's Office have
developed a Law Enforcement Facilities Master Plan, which includes the Law Enforcement
facilities to be constructed and provided on a pro rata basis to new development paying the law
enforcement impact fee."
The Law Enforcement Impact Fee Study indicates that the total capital cost per police officer is
$140,258. Included in the total cost calculation are total land costs, total building costs and
total equipment costs necessary for each additional officer. The total capital cost per function
resident was determined at $298.75. This figure was derived by dividing the Total Capital
Cost per Police Officer ($140,258) by the LOS (Officers per 1000 Functional Residents) (2.13
Officers). The study also contains a cost component for capital expansion expenditures. For
the purpose of the east of CR951 study the 2005 Law Enforcement Impact Ordinance and
associated study are hereby incorporated by reference and provide the rational nexus for the
levels of services provided for law enforcement as set forth below. The proposed impact fee
for law enforcement to be decided upon by the BCC on May 23, 2006 sets the rate for a single
family 1,500 square foot house at $325.86 and the rate for a multi-family structure at $236.38.
The 2005 AUIR established that 3.2 beds per 1000 population would be the level of service for
correctional facilities. The 2005 Correctional Impact Fee Study has supplemented this
methodology for calculating LOS for correctional facilities. The recommended change was the
elimination of the "beds per 1000 population" method with a change to building square footage
as the objective measure. The "Correctional Impact Fee Study" is incorporated by reference
and provides the rational nexus for the levels of service for correctional facilities as set forth
- 57-
below. The revised impact fee for correctional facilities was approved by the BCC on May 9,
2006 at a rate of 0.1067 per square feet fpr a single family home and 0.058.4 per square feet for
a multi-family home
Levell - Status Quo
Status quo would leave law enforcement capability and correctional facilities as they are today.
This is contrary to the County's adopted Impact Fee ordinances for Law Enforcement and
Correctional Facilities, and the Law Enforcement and Correctional Impact Fee Studies. The
status quo level is clearly unacceptable as the County would not be in compliance with its
adopted impact fee ordinances. This level would assume that the degradation in law
enforcement services and correctional facilities is acceptable, which would be contrary to
providing a substantial and proportionate benefit to all Collier County residents.
Level 2 - Intermediate
The intermediate level of service could involve a variety of short-term solutions or stop gap
measures that are necessary during interim periods of time while the CCSO is in the process of
maintaining its premium level of service. It would be disingenuous to provide possible short
term scenarios when the overall objective of maintaining the premium level of service for law
enforcement and correctional facilities is set forth by impact fee ordinances and incorporated
into the AUIR.
Level 3 - Premium
The only acceptable level of service for law enforcement and correctional facilities in the area
east of CR 951 are the levels of service that are established for the entire county by impact fee
ordinances and accordingly incorporated into the AUIR. These levels of service are referenced
above with the substantiating ordinances and studies incorporated by reference. Levels of
service for law enforcement and correctional facilities in the East of CR951 study area must be
consistent with the overall objective of continuing to provide the best law enforcement services
and correctional facilities that are possible. Based upon the total capital cost per function
resident being determined at $298.75, and the estimated population growth of 617,489 above
the current estimated 71,000 for the area (688,489 projected for Study area at build-out), the
estimated cost of providing the GMP required level of police service to the Study area is an
estimated $184,474,839. It should be noted that based upon the proposed Law
Enforcement Impact Fee to be decided by the BeC on May 23, 2006, the estimated
revenue generated by the increased fees, $64,939,164 would not cover the estimated cost
of providing service resulting in a revenue shortfall of $119,535,675. Based upon the 3.2
beds per 1000 population requirement for correctional facilities, the 617,489 new residents
projected for the Study area will require an additional 1,976 beds. The cost associated with the
1,976 additional beds, based upon the $52,099 per bed cost associated with the Naples Jail
addition, is a total estimated cost of $102,947,624. It should be noted that based upon the
Correctional Facilities Impact Fee approved by the BCC on May 9, 2006, the estimated
revenue generated by the impact fees, $35,488,068 would not cover the estimated cost of
providing service resulting in a revenue shortfall of $67,459,556. It should be noted that the
estimated impact fees generated for both Law Enforcement and Correction Facilities were
derived from an estimated 123,298 new single family units at 2,000 square feet and 104,752
- 58-
new multi-family units at 1,500 square feet, and did not factor potential new commercial and
industrial square footage for the area.
,---------.
I
Law Enforcement and Correctional Facilities Cost
Estimates
$300,000,0001
$250,000,000 I
$200,000,0001
$150,000,000
$100,000,000 I
I
$50,000,000i
$0.1
Law Enforcement Correctional Total
Facilities
$100,427,232 estimated generated from impact
fees
*Law Enforcement wlill have an estimated $119,535,675 revenue shortfall
*CorrectionaR Facilities will have an estimated $67,459,556 revenue shortfall
- 59-
XI. CHAPTER 189 DISTRICTS
Chapter 189 Districts
Collier East of CR 951 Services & Infrastructure Horizon Study
Summary
In 2003, the BCC adopted Resolution 2003-380 that led to the enactment of a legislative bill
creating an Independent Special District (under Chapter 189, F.S.) known as the "Big Cypress
Stewardship District." Likewise, the BCC adopted Resolution 2003-381 that led to the
enactment of a legislative bill creating an Independent Special District known as the "Ave
Maria Stewardship Community District." In both instances, the creation of these districts cited
an express purpose of "providing public infrastructure and services within the RLSA and
Overlay for the development of anticipated rural villages, towns and hamlets." In addition,
both 189 districts were created with the express purpose of providing a public financing
mechanism for public infrastructure and services without competing with other eounty
providers in a portion of the currently undeveloped RLSA and Overlay. However, the creation
of each district did not include provisions that addressed the integration with existing, proposed
or potential Collier County public infrastructure and services.
It would appear that in many instances Collier County's public infrastructure and services will
be inextricably intertwined with both the Big Cypress Stewardship District and the Ave Maria
Stewardship Community District. For example, it would appear that countywide transportation
improvements should be coordinated with each 189 district to maximize the efficiency of the
countywide transportation network. Likewise, coordination with the county's Public Utilities
Division, Fire Districts, the Sheriff's Department, Parks and Recreation Department, Library
Department, EMS, other county departments, and state and federal agencies will be necessary
to avoid duplication of services and maximize economies of scale of services provided by
eollier County.
Preliminary discussions with representatives of the 189 districts have occurred with various
county divisions/departments and as a part of the East of CR951 stakeholders group. All parties
recognize the necessity to coordinate Chapter 189 district public infrastructure and services
with Collier County and other government agency public infrastructure and services. One of
the main impediments that could affect coordination is the timing of respective infrastructure
and services that will be provided by the 189 districts, eollier County and other government
agencies. Although timing of public infrastructure and services would appear to be a possible
impediment to proper coordination at this point in time, it is in the best interest of all affected
parties to coordinate infrastructure and services to maximize economies of scale in terms of the
cost/benefit ratio for all taxing entities.
The Chapter 189 District Analysis is broken down into three possible levels of services as
follows:
- 60-
Levell - Status Quo
No coordination beyond the existing developer contribution agreements and interlocal
agreements previously entered into between the Chapter 189 Districts and Collier County.
Level 2 - Intermediate
There are numerous intermediate scenarios that could exist with respect to coordinating
Chapter 189 District public infrastructure and services with Collier County and other
government agency public infrastructure and services. At a minimum, coordination and
interlocal agreements (where applicable) should be entered into with Collier County's
Transportation Division, the appropriate fire district and the eollier County Sheriff's
Department.
Level 3 - Premium
Maximum coordination will occur between representatives of the Chaper189 Districts, Collier
County and other government agencies to maximize economies of scale related to all public
infrastructure and services. Interlocal agreements related to public infrastructure and services
will be entered into that will accrue to the benefit of all of Collier County. Developer
Contribution Agreements will be considered when it is in the best interest of all affected
parties.
- 61 -
XII. Summary of Estimated Cost
For each of the identified service or infrastructure providing departments identified within the
Horizon study, estimates of cost of providing their respective service at the various levels have
been attempted. Below is a summary of the estimated cost for the various levels of service
identified. It should be noted that these are estimates based upon population projections and
development trends and should not be construed as absolutes.
Transportation
Public Utilities
Potable Water
Wastewater
Libraries
Schools*
Parks & Recreation
Emergency Services
EMS, Med Flight &
Emergency Managment
Law Enforcement
Correctional
Facilities
Total
* Estimate excludes land cost
1--
i
$10,000,000,000i
,
I
$8,000,000,0001
I
i
$6,000,000,000 I
$4,000,000,0001
$2,000,000, 000 Ii
$0
Status Quo
$2,500,000,000
$0
$0
$0
$57,027,000
$1,044,000,000
$101,000,000
$497.752
$184,474,839
Intermediate
$3,490,000,000
$145,573,000
$50,330,000
$95,243,000
$77,596,000
$1,044,000,000
$37] ,400,000
Premium
$3,940,000,000
$2,454,080,000
$909,360,000
$1,544,720,000
$99,086,000
$1,044,000,000
$755,200,000
$81,495,000
$184,474,839
$92. 795 ,fV\()
$184,474,b~
$102,947,624 $]02,947,624 $102,947,624
Status Quo Intermediate Premium
$3,~89 ,947 ,215 $5,497,486,463 $8,672,583,463
Total Cost Summary
$3,989,947,215
r' , .
! ...~. . _.~:_.
,f.:i
~~~k'</~:("i;: '
-- --~ --.'-.---,
l!~,672,583,463
Intermediate
Premium
',I
';~i~;'-'/":"'~i"'l"~~'>f"f"'.,':r.-/ r;.,
Status Quo
- 62-
XIII. LAND USE IMPLICATIONS
Collier East of CR 951 Services & Infrastructure Horizon Study
Summary
At the inception of the East of CR951 Study, the BCC issued a policy directive that the study
would not include a land use component. The intent behind the directive was that future land
use changes should not be the impetus behind analyzing infrastructure needs in the area east of
CR951. Although this intent is fundamentally sound in concept, generally accepted planning
practices and principles recognize the need to link land use planning with transportation
planning and other infrastructure needs.
The County's Transportation and Public Utilities Division's recognized this necessity when
trying to project future infrastructure needs for roads, potable water and sanitary sewer. More
specifically, the Transportation Division opined "it is incumbent upon the Transportation
Division to model land use scenario's that may be possible to reduce the demand on the entire
countywide roadway network, and therefore lead to a reduction in the overall number of
additional new lane miles." Likewise, the Public Utilities Division opined "without a portrayal
of the Land Uses in the areas to the East, it is not possible for Public Utilities to speculate on
the cost to serve in the outlying areas." Both Divisions have provided detailed outlays for each
level of service identified within the preliminary report, but recognize the limitations inherent
to the projections due to the absence of a land use component.
Furthermore, discussion among county staff and other stakeholders identified the need for
additional commercial, office and industrial land uses in the study area. The identification of
the need to link future land use with infrastructure needs warrants revisiting the original policy
directive that the East of CR951 Study not include a land use component. A recently
completed Industrial needs analysis "Exhibit C" provided to the Collier County Economic
Development Council (EDC) by Russ Weyer of Fishkind and Associates, indicates that based
upon conservative population projections that an additional 3,685 acres of industrial zoned land
will be needed to satisfy the workforce demands by 2030. Bob Mulhere of RW A, Inc., Bruce
Tyson of WilsonMiller, Inc., and Brian Goguan of Barren Collier, Inc., also contributed to the
Industrial needs analysis. Whether the exact number of acreage needed is 3,685 acres or
another number, the reality is that additional industrial acreage is needed based upon the
expected population growth and the percentage of the workforce employed within industries
specific to industrial zoning.
With a majority of the County's future population growth projected for the Study area, it
should be expected that a majority of the necessary new industrial acreage would be located
within the Study area. However, the establishment of industrial land use and zoning districts
are often fraught with concerns and therefore the creation of future industrial land use and
zoning districts are normally subject to public policy decisions of the governing political entity.
It should be noted that the Stewardship Receiving Area (SRA) application for the Town of Ave
Maria, the first within the RLSA, allocated zero acres to industrial of warehouse use. This
absence of industrial acreage allocation could have significant implications upon the structural
basis of the County's future economic mix, as well as potential detrimental impacts upon the
transportation networks if construction/landscaping/maintenance facilities are displaced from
the residencies they serve.
- 63 -
A future land use modeling component to the Study is essential to coordinating the planning,
placement and cost associated with the infrastructure required to accommodate the County's
future industrial needs, in addition to the commercial and institutional needs of the Study area.
In furtherance of the possibility of including a land use component, future land use has been
addressed in conformity with the three levels set forth in the other areas of the study.
Levell - Status Quo
Pursuant to prior BeC policy directive, the Study would be undertaken without a land use
component. The public participation portion of the Study would be a presentation of the cost
identified within this preliminary report of each identified level of service to determine the
public's preferences in relation to their costs. This level would allow for a limited utilization
of mapping to be integrated with the public participation phase; with infrastructure cost options
being the primary data presented to the public. The Level of Service Menus are contained
within this preliminary report beginning on page 69 and provide an example of the level of
service options which would be presented during Phase II.
Level 2 - Intermediate
A cursory review of existing land use patterns will be undertaken. The purpose of the review
will not involve an analysis of spatial land use needs in the study area. Instead, the primary
focus of the analysis will be to identify potential commercial, office, industrial and
civic/institutional square footage needs without any detailed location analysis. This exercise
will be similar to the Industrial needs analysis recently completed for the Economic
Development Council (EDe), in that for each subset of need, such as office, commercial and
civic/institutional will be projected based upon population growth with no spatial allocation
preformed within the projections. This intermediate level would allow for a more
comprehensive description of future conditions of the area to be presented to the public, with
an expanded utilization of mapping to be integrated with the public participation phase. The
intermediate level would project infrastructure cost options tied to fixed mapping being the
primary data presented to the public.
Level 3 - Premium
A Land Use model will be developed for the entire study area. This analysis will include the
inventory of all existing land uses in the study area, an analysis of the need for additional
commercial, office, industrial, institutional and other appropriate land uses in the study area, as
well as the GMP regulatory environment of the subdistrict within the Study area and the sitting
of specific land uses which are warranted based on the need to service existing and future
development currently permitted by the County's Future Land Use Map/Element. This level
would allow for the most comprehensive description of future conditions of the area to be
presented to the public and the greatest utilization of mapping to be integrated with the public
participation phase. This level would provide infrastructure cost options integrated with
flexible mapping to be the primary data presented to the public. Additionally, staff believes
that this growth model would serve beyond the scope of the Horizon study and stand as a tool;
to the infrastructure and service providers as they continue refine their long range plans for the
Study area, and to the Board of County Commissioners as you assess the byproduct of the
- 64-
regulatory framework of the Study area and identify deficiencies, such as lack of industrial
allocation in shaping future policy decisi~m.s.
Specifically, Staff has identified the @/nteractive Growth ModezTM, a population and growth
modeling methodology developed by the planning consulting firm of Van Buskirk, Ryffel &
Associates (VBRA), based in southwest Florida, as a land use modeling tool which could
accommodate the unique circumstances presented by the divergent subdistricts of the Study
area. Its population-based modeling program combines a highly specialized forecast-to-build-
out method with various modeling components (publk services and commercial/industrial uses
especially) to spatially distribute future land uses and allocate spending. This combination of
applied mathematical capabilities and allocation modeling makes this product unique with the
combination of Excel and ArcView able to produce maps easily understood by the public.
Additionally, the consultants create a model which is unique to each of its customers. For
example, the Cape Coral /GM is different from the Lehigh Acres /GM. The Collier County
model would be different from theirs. Because the growth model is truly interactive, it
becomes more unique in use to each jurisdiction over time. It is responsive to changing
conditions such as local and regional expansions and contractions. Plus, it can be used to
demonstrate various "What If' scenarios of alternative growth management policies and
decisions.
The /GM incorporates factors drawn from the very elements comprising the Collier County
Growth Management Plan - particularly those found in the Future Land Use Element, the
Capital Improvement Element, and the Annual Update and Inventory Report (AUIR). Typical
inputs to the model include the comprehensive plan, current land use and zoning, the future
land use map, parks master plan, transportation and utilities master plans, schools, GIS
information and census data. In all, some 50 variables are considered with the results
displayed in graphic and tabular formats. The model projects when certain public facilities
should be provided - including transportation improvements, fire and EMS stations, water and
sewer plants, and so forth - and where they should be located. The model also ranks as an
invaluable budgeting tool, as spending is anticipated for these public facilities at the pace
development occurs - concurrent with market fluctuations. This real time ability to change
planning scenarios to affect budgeting decisions, and to change spending scenarios to affect
planning decisions, are features that would provide beneficial to the Horizon study as it
progresses to the public participation stage.
- 65-
XIV. PUBLIC PARTICIPATION - .
Collier East of CR 951 Services & Infrastructure Horizon Study
Summary
The East of CR951 Study is based on broad planning practices and principles with an
expressed purpose of allowing property owners in the study area to take advantage of the
planning process while envisioning its future and turning that vision into reality. In furtherance
of the visioning process, property owners will be encouraged to provide exhaustive public
input with respect to all possible public, quasi-public and private infrastructure and services
alternati ves/scenarios.
The demographics in the study area is comprised primarily of individuals within the Estates
subdistrict and the Immokalee Urbanized area. The Estates, the larger of the two in terms of
area and population, is characterized as a diverse and dynamic population growing at a rate far
exceeding growth rates in other parts of Collier County. There is a direct relationship between
growth and demand for infrastructure and public services. However, the types of infrastructure
and levels of service that property owners in the study area will demand has yet to be
determined. Therefore, infrastructure and public services alternatives have been developed as
talking points for property owners. The cost component will be presented to property owners as
a factor in their consideration of the desired levels of service.
Public presentations will be coordinated through Collier County's Communication and
Customer Relations Department with support from appropriate county divisions and
departments, other governmental agencies providing level of service alternatives and Chapter
189 districts that have a direct impact on the study area. Notice of these presentations as well
as pertinent background information will be communicated through property owners
associations, press releases and Channel 11 features and bulletins. Numerous public
presentations and open forums will transpire with the express intent of providing property
owners and residents an opportunity to understand the infrastructure and public services
alternatives that are possible in the study area. Property owners and residents will be provided
numerous opportunities to offer critiques and support for those alternatives.
The diverse population in the study area will require the translation of documents into Spanish
and Creole. Furthermore, public presentations will require on-site translation into Spanish and
Creole. Verbal comments will be recorded and transcribed to verify the validity of the desires
of property owners and residents. Written comments will also be solicited at each public
presentation and property owners and residents will be provided with written contact
information for Comprehensive Planning Department staff as the means to forward subsequent
written comments.
The East of CR951 study is the mechanism to help property owners and residents determine
what infrastructure and public services will be either desired or warranted in the study area.
Property owners in the study area will have a special role. The study envisions a polling
process to determine the infrastructure and public services preferences in the study area.
Furthermore, the polling process will contain cost provisions that will allow property owners to
make informed decisions. The polling process will take place prior to the drafting of the final
East of CR 951 report.
- 66-
xv. BCC POLICY DIRECTION-AND ISSUES
Continue to Phase II:
The identification of needs and concerns of owners and residents should occur as early as
possible in the long range planning process. Optimally, a variety of community forums and
venues should be used to obtain the perspectives of owners and residents. A successful
planning process is dependent on transforming community ideals into community action.
The Estates subdistrict comprises the area with the largest percentage of existing residents
within the Study Area. The Immokalee subdistrict contains the other statically significant
population base within the Study area. Both of these areas have been through recently, or are
in the process of completing, an overhaul to the master plans for the respective areas. In 2003,
the County, through the Golden Gate Area Master Plan Community Audit Research Report
captured the opinions of a percentage of the Golden Gate Estates residents. While this input
included some participants west of CR951, a majority of the respondents lived within the Study
area. The Community Audit Research Report revealed diverse opinions and choices of
preferences for the future of the area, but it did not correspond those preferences and choices to
the cost associated with each. The Immokalee area, through the Immokalee Area Master Plan
Visioning eomrnittee, is presently gathering data, holding meetings and workshops, and
reviewing development regulations to address potential changes related to the area. As noted,
both of these areas have been through recently, or are in the process of completing, an overhaul
to the master plans for the respective areas. What is unique about the upcoming public
participation phase is that cost estimates will be associated with the options presented to the
public to provide for a more detailed understanding of the options presented, not only in
relation to the subdistrict, but in the context of the overall Study area.
Upon consideration of the many factors involved in the process, the BCC should determine
whether it is desirable to move beyond the preliminary aspects of the Study, and poll the
community with respect to various infrastructure and public services. The BCC may wish to
identify specific types of infrastructure or services where such polling is suitable. The final
product of the Study will be a report to the BCC indicating community preferences on these
items.
Land Use Aspects:
One foundation for this Study to date has been an analysis based solely on current zoning and
land use patterns. Preliminary comments from the Public Utilities Division as well as the
Transportation Division have suggested that it is virtually impossible to provide accurate needs
assessments and financially feasible alternatives without a land use component in the Study.
Section XII of the preliminary report assessed three levels upon the question of incorporating a
land use study to this Horizon Study, staff is seeking direction from the BCC as to which of the
three options concerning the land use component should be pursued?
Level One - No Land Use Study.
Level Two - A study to identify potential land use short-falls without spatial allocation of land
uses.
Level Three - Development of the Inter-Active Growth Model for the Study area.
- 67 -
Outsourcing:
Although preliminary and future information pertaining to infrastructure and public services
has and will be provided by County staff, the fundamental question is whether an independent
consultant facilitating the public participation phase would best serve the interests of property
owners, residents and the County. Past experiences with Naples Park and Vanderbilt Beach
community planning initiatives suggest that an independent assessment of the study area would
validate findings of fact and remove the perception that County officials or staff overly
influence the outcome. County staff would in any case will provide a role in providing
information and analysis. The BCC should provide policy direction as to the level of
involvement by staff in the Phase II process. The question of outsourcing is intertwined with
the BCC's decision upon the land use component to the Study as both consultant driven
processes could be undertaken simultaneously. Is the BCC's direction for the County to
retain an outside consultant to facilitate the public participation phase?
Level of Service
As detailed within the initial portion of this preliminary report, the Study area is comprised of
various and distinct subdistricts; Golden Gate Estates north of 1-75, the Rural Fringe, the Rural
Lands Stewardship Area, the Immokalee Urbanized Area, the South Golden Gate Estates
Natural Resources Protection Area (NRP A) and Federal and State Lands. The Golden Gate
Estates north of I-75, the Rural Fringe, the Rural Lands Stewardship Area, the Immokalee
Urbanized Area are the areas which are programmed to accommodate the majority of the
future population within the Study area. Of the four areas, only the Estates subdistrict will
grow through individual building permits. Developments within the other three areas will
primarily transpire through the submission of Planned Unit Developments (PUD), rezones,
SRA's and SDP's which will attempt to concentrate the spatial arrangement of development in
an efficient manner to promote an urbanized level of service for the future residents. The
Estates, being a large lot pre-platted community of over forty years in existence, does not
promote such efficiency. Within the Level of Service menus created for the public
participation phase, a number of service providers did not provide an option below the required
AUIR or GMP level of service. As noted, the spatial arrangement of the pre-platted lots within
the Estates creates a situation that is cost prohibitive to provide the area with urbanized
services. Staff is seeking direction from the BCC to determine if level of services for the
Estates below the accepted AUIR or GMP Urban level of service is acceptable. During the
public participation phase if the options presented did not fit what certain individuals
envisioned for the future of the area, the sense of a true choice could not be accomplished. The
level of service menu created for Public Utilities for the extension of potable water and
wastewater contains this no change or do nothing option. This option, if directed by the BCe
could be included to all level of service menus. Staff recognizes that this no change option
may be unsustainable, but does recognize it may be the opinion of a number of residents with
the area.
Below is a sample of the level of service menus based upon the Study's infrastructure options.
- 68 -
XVI. LEVEL OF SERVICE MENUS
Public Utilities - Potable Water = Please select only one option
Status Quo: No expansion of potable water to Estates District East of CR951
Additional users continue to draw upon the aquifer and influence the groundwater with
individual septic fields, the long term viability of this option is called into question.
Total Cost: $0
Check if
Desired
Intermediate: Expansion of potable water to 5 section project area of Estates District
within Study area
!,
Vanderbilt Beach Road
;1;
Total Cost: $50,330,000- Cost per Parcel = $37,000
Additional revenue required through increase in Impact Fees, Ad
Valorum tax, or other means such as Municipal Service Taxing Unit
(MSTU)
Check if
Desired
- 69-
Premium: Expansion of potable water to all of Estates District east of CR951
. ~:I
,~
2B
2'
Vanderbilt Beach Road
",
----------.
u'
U"
Total Cost: $909,360,000- Cost per Parcel = $41,485
Additional revenue required through increase in Impact Fees, Ad
Valorum tax, or other means such as Municipal Service Taxing Unit
(MSTU)
Check if
Desired
-70 -
Public Utilities - W astewater ~ Please select only one option
Status Quo: No expansion of wastewater to Estates District East of CR951
Additional users continue to draw upon the aquifer and influence the groundwater with
individual septic fields, the long term viability of this option is called into doubt.
Total Cost: $0
Check if
Desired
Intermediate: Expansion of wastewater to 5 section project area of Estates District within
Study area
Vanderbilt Beach Road
)~
J.f. .il
1)3.
Li4
n
:./~
""
175/CR9511nte,,,,,tion ~.. j 'n;
.'!~
;1
.'4'
Total Cost:$95,243,OOO- Cost per Parcel = $70,000
Additional revenue required through increase in Impact Fees, Ad
Valorum tax, or other means such as Municipal Service Taxing Unit
(MSTU)
Check if
Desired
- 71 -
Premium: Expansion of wastewater to all of Estates District east of CR951
Vanderbilt Beach Road
-i
------------
- -1
;;''5
29
17
",
.:!..'.
.,
"
-
J~
cr."
17 5/CR95l Intersection
Total Cost: $1,544,720,000- Cost per Parcel = $70,471
Additional revenue required through increase in Impact Fees, Ad
Valorum tax, or other means such as Municipal Service Taxing Unit
(MSTU)
Check if
Desired
- 72 -
Parks and Recreation - Please select only one option
Status Quo:
This level involves:
d) cooperative improvement of school sites
e) improvement of undeveloped community park land in inventory
f) improvement of undeveloped regional park land in inventory
Project: Unit Cost Total
a) Cooperative development of 8 school sites
b) Development of 1 community park
c) Development of 2 regional parks
$750,000 $6,000,000
$15,000,000 $15,000,000
$40,000,000 $80.000.000
TOTAL $101,000,000
The resulting additions to the developed inventory are:
8 school sites, 1 community park, 2 regional parks
Check if
Desired
Intermediate: (Rural)
This level involves:
f) cooperative improvement of school sites
g) improvement of undeveloped community park land in inventory
h) improvement of undeveloped regional park land in inventory
i) purchase and development of community park land at a rural level of service
j) purchase and development of regional park land at a rural level of service
The rural level of service standards will be approximately 2/3 of the current adopted standards:
@ $750,000
@$15,000,000
@$40,000,000
@$200,000
@$15,000,000
@$200,000
@ $40.000,000
$6,000,000
$15,000,000
$80,000,000
$53,000.000
$45,000,000
$92,400,000
$80.000.000
The resulting additions to the developed inventory are:
8 school sites, 4 community parks, 4 regional parks
Check if
Desired
20 Orange tree Park and Kaufmann (Vanderbilt Ext.) property
21 At .75 per 1000516 acres are needed. Credit is given for 171 acres in inventory and 80 acres to be available
through school sites.
22 At 2 per 1000 1377 acres are needed. Credit is given for 212 acres in inventory and 703 acres to be acquired
through cooperative agreements.
- 73 -
Level 3- Premium (Urban)
This level involves:
f) cooperative improvement of school sites
g) improvement of undeveloped community park land in inventory
h) improvement of undeveloped regional park land in inventory
i) purchase and development of community parkland at the adopted level of service
j) purchase and development of regional park land at the adopted level of service
The adopted level of service standards are:
1.2882 acres per 1000 population LOSS for community park land
2.9412 acres per 1000 population LOSS for regional park land
@ $750,000
@ $15,000,000
@ $40,000,000
@ $200,000
@ $15,000,000
@ $200,000
@ $40,000,000
TOTAL
$6,000,000
$15,000,000
$80,000,000
$127,200.000
$105,000,000
$222,000,000
$200,000,000
$755,200,000
Additional revenue may be required through increase in Impact Fees, Ad Valorum tax, or other
means such as Municipal Service Taxing Unit (MSTU)
The resulting additions to the developed inventory are:
8 school sites, 8 community parks, 7 regional parks
Check if
Desired
23 Manatee Community Park
24 Orangetree Park and Kaufmann (Vanderbilt Ext.) property
25 At 1.2882 per 1000887 acres are needed. Credit is given for 171 acres in inventory and 80 acres to be available
through school sites.
26 At 2.9412 per 10002025 acres are needed. Credit is given for 212 acres in inventory and 703 acres to be
acquired through cooperative agreements.
-74 -
Libraries - Please select only one option
Status Quo: 1.75 books per capita and .20 square feet per capita
Planned facilities are: the South Regional Library; the Golden Gate expansion; and the
meeting room addition to Marco Island
Projected facilities are: Orange Tree and Fiddlers' Creek
Total Cost: $$57,027,000
Check if
Desired
Intermediate: 1.75 books per capita and .27 square feet per
This level assumes no increase of books per capita and the above libraries are carried forward
with the following additions built:
Immokalee - 5,000 square feet
Estates Branch - 10,000 square feet
Everglades City - 2,000 square feet
South Regional- 30,000 square feet
Orange Tree - 20,000 square feet
Total Cost:$$ $77,596,000
- Additional revenue required through increase in Impact Fees,
Ad Valorum tax, or other means such as Municipal Service
Taxing Unit (MSTU) = $ $20,569,000
Check if
Desired
Premium: 1.75 books per capita and .33 square feet per capita.
Service at this level assumes no increase of books per capita and the above libraries are carried
forward with following additions or new facilities are built:
Immokalee - 10,000 square feet
Big Cypress - 30,000 square feet
Orange Tree - 20,000 square feet
Fiddlers' Creek - 10,000 square feet
Check if
Desired
Total Cost:$$ $99,086,000 - Additional revenue required through increase in Impact Fees, Ad
Valorum tax, or other means such as Municipal Service Taxing Unit (MSTU) = $ $42,059,000
- 75 _.
Emergency Medical Services - Please select only one option
Status Quo: No additional facilities planned to service the projected population, yearly
operating cost of 4 existing stations
Total Cost: $497,752
Check if
Desired
Intermediate: Satisfies GMP requirement with 45 units provided, but decreases potential
response time with 19 Co-located facilities.
. 41 Fully Equipped Ambulances = $7,995,000 est.
. 20 Fully Equipped EMS Stations = $ 36,000,000 est.
. 19 Co-located Fully Equipped EMS/Fire Stations = $24,700,000 est.
. 1 Fully Equipped EMS St wi Emergency Mgmt Space = $ 2,000,000 est.
. 1 Fully Equipped EMS St w/satellite EMS admin/training facility. = $3,800.000
. 1 Fully Equipped Hanger and Helicopter = $7,000,000 est.
Total Cost: $81,495,000 - Additional revenue may be required through Check if
increase in Impact Fees, Ad Valorum tax, or other means such as Munici Desired
Service Taxing Unit (MSTU) to satisfy cost
Premium: Satisfies GMP requirement with 45 units provided with greatest level of
response time due to each unit in an independent station.
. 41 Fully Equipped Ambulances = $7,995,000 est.
· 41 Fully Equipped EMS Stations = $ 73,800,000 est.
· 1 EMS satellite training and administration building wi remote Emergency Mgmt
capability = $ 4,000,000 est.
. 1 Fully Equipped Hanger and Helicopter = $7,000,000 est.
Total Cost: $92,795,000 - Additional revenue may be required
through increase in Impact Fees, Ad Valorum tax, or other means
such as Municipal Service Taxing Unit (MSTU) = $11,300,000
Check if
Desired
- 76-
Exhibit A
2005 Build-Out Study
preliminary findings
preliminary findings
2005 RESIDENUAL BUILP-OUT STIIDY
The 2005 Residential Build-out Study entails an analysis of undeveloped lands to
determine likely future residential development, combined with existing residential
development, to project the total number of dwelling units and resulting permanent
population. This Study reflects one plausible development scenario, one that neither
reflects the maximum development potential nor the minimum development potential.
There are an infinite number of possible scenarios due to the many variables involved
and, therefore, a degree of conjecture is inherent inihis type of analysis. The variables
include future occupancylvacancy rates; future persons per household ratios; the type
and density/intensity of future development requests and approvals; and possible future
regulatory changes.
Projections of future development location, type and densitylintensity are made for
general planning purposes; as such, these projections should NOT be relied upon as
creating an absolute expectation of future development approvals. This Study is a
planning tool, not a blueprint or vision for future development order approvals by the
BCC.
Due to the numerous variables involved in this build-out analysis, the data in this Study
should not be used to predict dwelling unit or popufation totals at the level of individual
Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs); rather, the more TAZs that are aggregated, the greater
the confidence in the resulting projections. This is especially true for sparsely developed
areas of the county where there is little, if any, established development pattern
The objective of this Build-out Study is to project what the dwelling unit and population
counts will be, and their distribution, at build-out; it is not to predict when build-out will
occur. However, if the countywide annual average growth rate since 2000 (5.05%) were
to remain steady into the future, build-out could occur as soon as 2026. Staff does not
anticipate that build-out will be achieved in about twenty years, for three reasons: 1) past
experience has shown that the growth rate will vary over time, especially during cyclical
economic downturns (think of the early 1990's - Collier County's growth slowed down,
albeit not as significantly as most other parts of the country); 2) different areas of the
county experience different growth rates; and, 3) as build-out is approached, the growth
rate will decline significantly. Additionally, the latest population projections prepared by
the Comprehensive Planning Department {in 2004} project the countywide permanent
population in 2030 at 739,700.
Attached is a spreadsheet depicting the projected dwelling units and population at build-
out for the entire county and various sub-parts. A few observations: 1) The area lying
east of Collier Boulevard, mostly rural lands and the semi-rural Golden Gate Estates, is
projected to contain the majority of the county's population (almost 55%) at build-out.
2) The Immokalee urban area has a significant growth potential. Much of the Immokalee
urban area is comprised of undeveloped land or land in agricultural uses, not unlike the
coastal urban area 30 or so years ago. 3) Not surprisingly, the percentage of the
county's population within the incorporated areas will continue to diminish in size (about
7% at build-out, barring significant annexations or incorporation of new cities).
Methodoloav
The Collier MPO, Metropolitan Planning Organization, adopted its version of the 2000
Census Traffic Analysis Zones in 2004. The MPO consultant produced a TAZ map with
I
preliminary findings
preliminary findings
accompanying dwelling unit and populs-tion data, the foundation of whi~h is the 2000
Census. Graphics and Comprehensive Planning staff then split many of MPO's T AZs
into sub- TAZs (so as to allow for the annual compilation of data by various geographies,
e.g. Planning Communities, as required by the Future Land Use Element and the Inter-
local Agreement with the Collier County School Board). This resulted in year 2000
dwelling unit and population counts by TAZ. This also allowed staff to derive the ratio of
persons per total dwelling unit (PPTDU) by TAZ - simply divide the population of each
TAZ by the number of dwelling units in that TAZ. For each TAZ in which there were no
dwelling units or population, staff assigned a PPTDU-ratio from a comparable TAZ.
Next, Comprehensive Planning staff manually reviewed all residential building permits
from 2000-2004 (roughly 15,000 permits) for which a Certificate of Occupancy was
issued so as to identify the 2000 TAZ location of each dwelling unit(s). These dwelling
units were added to the 2000 data to derive a 2004 dwelling unit count by 2000 T AZ.
Using the PPTDU ratios, staff calculated the population for 2000-2004 by TAZ, then
added that to the 2000 figures to derive the 2004 population by 2000 T AZ. This 2004
data is the base year data for the Build-out Study.
Staff then reviewed each T AZ to determine the number of approved but un-built dwelling
units, using Property Appraiser aerials, parcel data, and assessment maps; zoning
maps; and, the February 2005 PUD list For urban-designated properties containing
"unzoned" land - typically zoned A, Rural Agriculture, staff predicted the number of
dwelling units, if any, that might be approved via a rezoning, based upon the
assumptions noted below. For properties in the Rural area, staff predicted the number
of dwelling units that might be built, also using the assumptions noted below.
Staff did not re-analyze the Immokalee community, the City of Naples, or the City of
Marco Island. Instead, staff relied upon the build-out figures from: the 1991 Immokalee
Area Master Plan for Immokalee, Phase I of the Urban Area Build-out Study (1994) for
Naples, and the 1997 update to the 1994 Build-out Study for Marco Island.
Assumptions
In preparing this Build-out Study, several assumptions were made for various areas of
the County, as stated below.
Coastal Urban area
1. Assume EAR-based Growth Management Plan amendments will be approved
to eliminate some density bonuses within the Density Rating System, and to limit
density to a maximum of 4 DU/A in the Coa~al High Hazard Area. As a result, all
properties to which the Density Rating System is applicable and for which a future
rezoning is assumed, assign a density of 3 or 4 DUlA - no utilization of density
bonuses is assumed.
2. In the Urban Residential Fringe, assume density capped at 1.5 DU/A; that is, assume
no Transfer of Development Rights from the Rural Fringe Mixed Use District.
3. For most properties for which a future rezoning is assumed, and for PUDs where the
dwelling unit type is unspecified, assume 50% will be single family and 50% will be
multi-family.
4. Assume PUDs will develop at their maximum approved density (with only one
exception).
5. Assume properties designated to allow commercial zoning will be rezoned to
commercial, not residential.
2
preliminary findings
preliminary findings
Golden Gate Estates
1. For all parcels large enough to be subdivided, e.g. 5-acre tract, assume 75% will
subdivide.
2. Assume properties designated to allow commercial zoning will be rezoned to
commercial, not residential.
Rural Frinae Mixed Use District (RFMUD)
1. Assume four Rural Villages will be developed, the maximum allowed.
2. Assume the Rural Village to develop in the Receiving area on the south side of
Immokalee Road and west of Wilson Blvd. will be the minimum size allowed, 300
acres.
3. Assume the Rural Village to develop in the Receiving area on the east side of
Immokalee Road and north of Golden Gate Estates will be the median size allowed,
900 acres (the mid point between the minimum of 300 acres and maximum of 1500
acres).
4. Assume the Rural Village to develop in the Receiving area in North Belle Meade will
be the median size allowed, 900 acres.
5. Assume the Rural Village to develop in the Receiving area on the north side of US-
41 East will be the median size allowed, 1400 acres (the mid point between the
minimum of 300 acres and maximum of 2500 acres).
6. Assume all Rural Villages will be developed at the median density allowed, 2.5 DU/A
(mid point between the minimum of 2 OU/A and maximum of 3 OU/A).
7. Assume the dwelling unit mix in each Rural Village will be 50% single family and
50% multi-family.
8. Assume the pending Growth Management Plan amendment (CP-2004-4) will be
approved to create additional TDR bonuses. '
9. Assume the pending Growth Management Plan amendment (CP-2004-2) will be
approved to re-designate 232 acres from Neutral Lands to Sending Lands and
Receiving Lands, located south of Immokalee Road and west of Wilson Blvd.
Rural Lands Stewardship Area (RLSA)
1. Stewardship Sendina Area (SSA) Credit Assumptions:
a. Assume 95% of Flow-way Stewardship Areas (FSAs), Habitat Stewardship Areas
(HSAs), Water Retention Areas (WRAs), and Rezones will become SSAs.
b. Credit calculations are based on mean values for each stewardship type.
c. Credit calculations are based on layers removed to Ag 2 (on average).
d. Restoration Credits for designation (R1) will encompass 75% of land area.
e. Restoration Credits for completion (R2) will encompass 50% of land area.
The above entitles 56,365 acres of Stewardship Receiving Area, approximately
76% of "open area" (20% In Area of Critical State Concern - ACSC).
2. Stewardship Receivine Area (SRA) Assumptions:
a. Assume Towns, Villages, Hamlets and Compact Rural Developments (CROs) will
develop at 3000, 700, 80 and 80 acres, respectively.
3
preliminary findings
preliminary findings
b. Assume Towns, Villages, HamlEtls.and CROs will develop at densIties of 3, 3, 1.5
and 1.5 DU/A.
c. Assume the mix of SRA type by acreage will be 50% Town or Village, and 50%
Hamlet or CRD.
d. Assume a total of 5 Towns and 16 Villages.
e. Assume the dwelling unit mix will be 50% single family and 50% multi-family.
3. Development outside SRAs:
a. For "Open lands" outside of the ACSC, assume: 12% Agriculture and 12%
Baseline development.
b. For "Open lands" within the ACSC, assume 40% Agriculture and 40% Baseline
Development.
Assume no baseline development inside Flow-way Stewardship Areas, Habitat
Stewardship Areas, or Water Retention Areas.
RLSA BUILD-OUT SUMMARY SHEET
Open Areas (not within ACSC):
Ave Maria
4 Towns
16 Villages
Hamlets/CRD
Baseline
Agriculture
Subtotal
Acres DU~
4,995 11 ,000
12,000 36,000
11 ,200 33,600
26,115 39,173
8,259 1,652
8.259
70,828 121,425
Open Areas (ACSC):
Village 500 (2)
Village 300 (5)
Hamlet/CRD (10)
Baseline
Agriculture
Subtotal
TOTAL RLSA
1,000
1,500
1,000
6,765
6,765
17.030
87,858
3,000
4,500
1,500
1,353
10,353
131,778
2005 Residential Build-out Study
G, Comp, David, 2005 RO. Study
dw/March 2005
4
summary by area
Estimated Buildout
Area Total Dwelling Units Totdl Population
Naples 27,252 40,971
Marco Island 18,271 41,004
Everglades City 550 744
Incorporated Sum
46,073
82,719
Immokalee 38,798 104,483
Coastal Urban area 246,368 426,064
RLSA-Rural Lands Stewardship Area 132,283 389,193
RFMUD-Rural Fringe Mixed Use District 19,433 57,644
GGE East of CR-951 & Rural Settlement Area 27,607 81,517
GGE West of CR-951 3,430 9,865
All of GGE & Rural Settlement Area 31,037 91,382
East of CRlSR 951 (Collier Blvd.)
213,754
688,489
IUnincorporated Area
424,425 I
983,701 I
I COUNTYWIDE
470;498 I
1,066,420 ,
NOTES:
GGE = Golden Gate Estates.
Naples figures per 1994 Urban Area Buildout Study, Phase I.
Marco Island figures per 1996 Marco Island Master Plan,
Immokalee figures per 1991 Immokalee Area Master Plan.
East of CRlSR 951 excludes lmmokalee.
Coastal UrbBll area: from Gulf of Mexico east to approximately 1 mile east ofCoillier Blvd.; from Lee County line south to Gulf of Mexico.
The above areas are such that, with the exception of the unincoporated/incorporated areas, no combination will equal the countywide sum.
Prepared by Collier County Comprehensive Planning Department, March 2005.
2005 Build-<:>ut Study - TAZs and areas,xls
G, Camp, Buildout Study 2005
dwlMarch 2005
WORKING DRAFT
summary by area detailed
WORKING DRAFT
EstimClted Builclnut Dwelling Est 1111 dtL'd Bull (lOll I Popula lion
UllIts
SF MF Total
Area SFDU MFDU Total DUs PODuliJtio PoouliJt PoouliJtio
Naples 9,059 18,193 27,252 14,762 26,209 40,971
Marco Island 8,655 9,616 18,271 19,560 21,444 41,004
Everglades City 139 411 550 334 409 744
Incorporated Sum
17,853
28,220
46,073
34,656
48,062
82,719
Immokalee 19,040 19,758 38,798 57,959 46,524 104,483
Coastal Urban area 97,219 148,799 246,368 217,633 208,431 426,064
RLSA-Rural Lands
Stewardship Area 66,403 65,879 132,283 220,772 168,421 389,193
RFMUD-Rural Fringe Mixed
Use District 12,702 6,731 19,433 41,085 16,559 57,644
GGE East of CR-951 & Rural
Settlement Area 25,496 2,111 27,607 77 ,326 4,191 81,517
GGE West of CR-951 3,097 333 3,430 9,158 707 9,865
All of GGE & Rural Settlement
Area
28,593
2,444
31,037
86,485
4,898
91,382
136,362
253,268
426,618
688,489
IUnincorporated Area
204,058 I 220,016 I
424,425 I 580,5751 403,1261 983,701 I
1 COUNTYWIDE
221,911 I 248,236 I
470,4981 615,2321 451,188 11,066,4201
NOTES:
SFDU = Single Family Dwelling Unit
MFDU = Multi-Family Dwelling Unit
GGE = Golden Gate Estates
Naples figures per 1994 Urban Area Buildout Study, Phase I.
Marco Island figures per 1996 Marco Island Master Plan,
Immokalee figures per 199 I Immokalee Area Master Plan,
East of CRlSR 95 I excludes Immokalee,
Coastal Urban area: from Gulf of Mexico east to approximately I mile east of Colllier Blvd.; from Lee County line south to Gulf of Mexico,
The above areas are such that, with the exception of the unincoporated/incorporated areas, no combination will equal the countywide sum.
Prepared by Collier County Comprehensive Planning Department. March 2005.
2005 Build-out Study - TAZs and areas.xls
G, Comp, Buildout Study 2005
dw/March 2005
GGE W. of 951
2000 EST. 8/0 DUs EST 8/0 POP
TAZ SFDU MFDU TotalDUs SF Population MF Population Total Population
158 109 82 191 373 193 566
166 97 - 97 291 . 291
16'1 169 - 169 411 . 411
1'1'1 264 7 271 804 17 821
1'18 204 9 213 596 15 611
181 268 13 281 798 26 824
182 310 11 321 941 20 961
18'1 237 14 251 698 26 724
188 201 15 216 661 32 693
190.1 47 4 51 138 7 145
191 327 126 453 920 257 1,178
192 84 - 84 269 . 269
193 176 'I 177 510 . 510
194 260 6 266 763 20 783
195 317 45 362 907 93 1,000
195.1 27 - 27 77 - 77
sum 3,097 333 3,430 9,158 707 9,865
GGE We~t of CR-951
NOTES:
SFDU = Single Family Dwelling Unit
MFDU = Multi-Family Dwelling Unit
GGE = Golden Gate Estates
TAZ = Traffic Analysis Zone
CR-951 a!k/a Collier Blvd.
Data should not necessarily be considered accmate for a single T AZ; it is considered most reliable when multiple contiguous TAZs are aggregated.
Prepared by Collier County Comprehensive Planning Department, March 2005.
2005 Build-out Study - T AZs and areas. xIs
G, Camp, Buildout Study 2005
dw/March 2005
GGE E. of 951 & Settlsment Area
GGE East of CR-951 & Rural Settlement Area
2000 EST. 810 DUs EST 8/0 POP
TAZ SFDU MFDU TotalDUs SF Population MF Population Total Population
212 289 - 289 897 - 897
213 532 - 532 1,743 - 1,743
214 618 3 621 2,088 16 2,104
215 711 5 716 2,275 27 2,302
216 648 58 706 2,085 145 2,230
218 237 - 237 707 - 707
218.1 352 5 357 1,050 27 1,077
221 217 12 229 638 29 667
222 4,256 79 4,335 14,227 129 14,356
225.1 32 - 32 95 - 95
231 247 9 256 646 33 679
232 285 7 292 834 28 862
234 590 15 605 1,943 36 1,979
235 299 8 307 964 14 978
236 435 6 441 1,426 23 1,449
237 946 2 948 2,875 - 2,875
238 249 - 249 782 - 782
238.1 337 8 345 1,058 29 1,087
238.2 30 - 30 94 - 94
239 201 - 201 519 - 519
240 297 - 297 915 - 915
241 193 7 200 618 17 635
241.1 34 - 34 109 - 109
390 2,774 18 2,792 7,397 89 7,486
391 1,478 - 1,478 4,629 - 4,629
391.1 26 - 26 81 - 81
393 974 10 984 3,014 48 3,062
393.1 25 - 25 77 - 77
394 1,593 16 1,609 4,707 46 4,752
395 615 11 626 1,808 31 1,839
396 1,218 22 1,240 3,676 106 3,782
398 1,254 604 1,858 3,115 1,107 4,222
399 2,217 1,206 3,423 6,167 2,211 8,378
400 1,287 - 1,287 4,066 - 4,066
sum 25,496 2,111 27,607 77 ,326 4,191 81,517
NOTES:
SFDU = Single Family Dwelling Unit
MFDU = Multi-Family Dwelling Unit
GGE ~ Golden Gate Estates
T AZ = Traffic Analysis Zone
CR-95l alk/a Collier Blvd,
Data should not necessarily be considered accwate for a single TAZ; it is considered most reliable when multiple contiguous TAZs are aggregated.
Prepared oy Collier County Comprehensive Planning Department, March 2005.
2005 Build-out Study - TAZs and areas.xls
G. Compo Buildout Study 2005
dw/March 2005
RLSA
Rural Lands Stewardshl Area RLSA
III : . . :....
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
378 32 3 35 49 3 52
378.1 1,660 1,656 3,316 2.554 1623 4,177
379 927 924 1,852 3,014 1,479 4,493
380 76 79 155 343 158 501
381 2,864 2,869 5,734 12,890 6,313 19,203
382.1 1,067 1,061 2,128 4,802 2.335 7,137
383.1 14,223 14,214 28,436 49,779 31,270 81,049
383.2 357 356 713 1249 783 2,033
386 1,956 1,942 3,897 3,694 5.825 9,519
386.1 530 529 1,059 1,002 1,588 2,589
386.2 - - - - - -
386.3 1,564 1,564 3.129 2,955 4.693 7,648
386.4 955 954 1,909 1,803 2,861 4,665
387 6,727 6,727 13,455 23,546 14,800 38,347
387.1 138 138 275 481 303 784
387.2 148 148 296 518 326 844
387.3 127 127 255 446 280 726
388.1 1,422 1,422 2,844 4,977 3,128 8,106
388.2 1,041 1041 2,083 3,645 2,291 5,936
388.3 55 55 110 193 122 315
389 3,823 3,823 7,645 13,379 8,410 21,789
389.1 - - - - - -
390.1 445 445 889 1.186 2,199 3,384
390.2 2,008 1,526 3,534 5,355 7,546 12,901
392 1,523 1,547 3,070 5,331 6,704 12,035
392.3 607 607 1,214 2,124 2,629 4,753
409.1 849 849 1,699 4,065 2,848 6,913
419 2,989 2,983 5,972 15,443 8,617 24,060
421.1 8,588 8,594 17,183 20,208 24,828 45,037
421.2 38 38 75 89 109 197
422 1,672 1,669 3,341 4,458 4,821 9,280
425.2 4,265 4,262 8,526 13,594 6,974 20,567
426.1 98 98 196 462 330 792
426.2 16 16 33 78 55 133
427 2.407 2,407 4,814 11,370 8,111 19,481
430.1 1,205 1,205 2,409 5,690 4,059 9,749
sum 66,403 65,879 132,283 220,772 168,421 389,193
NOTES:
SFDU = Single Family Dwelling Unit
MFDU = Multi-Family Dwelling Unit
TAZ = Traffic Analysis Zone
Data should not necessarily be considered accurate for a single TAZ; it is considered most reliable when multiple contiguous TAZs are aggregated.
Prepared by Collier County Comprehensive Planning Department, March 2005.
2005 Build-out Study - TAZs and areas.xls
G, Comp, Buildout Study 2005
dw/March 2005
East of 951
2000 EST BIO DUs EST. BIO POP
TAZ SFDU MFDU Total DUs SF Population MF Population Total Population
212 289 - 289 897 - 897
213 532 - 532 1,743 - 1,743
214 618 3 621 2.088 16 2,104
215 711 5 716 2,275 27 2,302
216 648 58 706 2,085 145 2,230
217 655 403 1,058 1.659 879 2,539
218 237 - 237 707 - 707
218.1 352 5 357 1,050 27 1,077
219 108 3 111 332 7 339
220 1,790 2,202 3,992 3,855 842 4,697
221 217 12 229 638 29 667
222 4,256 79 4,335 14,227 129 14,356
223 335 - 335 994 - 994
223.1 44 - 44 131 - 131
223.2 112 - 112 332 - 332
224 180 12 192 534 16 550
224.1 60 2 62 178 3 181
225 1,217 1,145 2,362 3,610 1,561 5,172
225.1 32 - 32 95 - 95
227 560 - 560 1,661 - 1,661
227.1 59 - 59 175 - 175
227.2 81 - 81 240 - 240
228 104 9 113 314 12 327
228.1 128 - 128 387 - 387
229 362 9 371 944 11 955
229.1 75 - 75 196 - 196
230 - - - - - -
230.1 - - - - - -
231 247 9 256 646 33 679
232 285 7 292 834 28 862
233 - - - - - -
234 590 15 605 1,943 36 1,979
235 299 8 307 964 14 978
236 435 6 441 1,426 23 1,449
237 946 2 948 2,875 - 2,875
238 249 - 249 782 - 782
238.1 337 8 345 1,058 29 1,087
238.2 30 - 30 94 - 94
239 201 - 201 519 - 519
240 297 - 297 915 - 915
241 193 7 200 618 17 635
241.1 34 - 34 109 - 109
343 542 1,169 1,711 1,028 1,466 2,493
343.1 - 3 3 - 4 4
343.2 1,630 1,504 3,134 3,091 1,886 4,976
343.3 3,158 4,920 8,078 5,988 6,169 12,156
344 361 1,272 1,633 402 1,438 1,840
345 139 1,036 1,175 147 1,075 1,222
345.1 43 979 1,022 46 1,016 1,062
c
2005 Build-out Study - TAZs and areas.xls
G, Comp, Buildout Study 2005
dw/March 2005
East of 951
East of CR-951 Collier Blvd.
. . t : - . :....
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. ... .
346 461 1,036 1.497 424 978 1,402
347 39 50 89 94 49 143
348 32 30 62 59 25 83
349 246 508 754 289 251 540
350 45 249 294 100 227 327
-:'C"l 139 411 550 334 409 744
."..IJJ..
352 12 1,632 1,644 . 3,732 3,732
353 2 . 2 3 . 3
353.1 147 514 661 200 543 744
354 32 95 127 46 47 93
355 2,856 1,864 4,720 13,090 7,100 20,190
355.1 15 . 15 69 . 69
355.2 . . - . - .
356 26 18 44 104 35 139
357 1,020 1,570 2,590 2,774 2,153 4,927
357.1 1 ,523 291 1,814 4,143 399 4,542
357.2 165 15 180 449 21 469
358 273 618 891 1,092 462 1,554
358.1 21 - 21 84 - 84
359 313 322 635 1,252 241 1.493
359.1 - - - - - -
360 293 796 1,089 1,172 595 1,767
360.1 38 1 39 152 1 153
361 519 507 1,026 1,223 1,003 2,227
361.1 20 - 20 47 - 47
362 1,133 639 1,772 4,532 478 5,010
362.1 - - - - - -
365 242 239 481 510 319 829
367 10 - 10 21 - 21
378 32 3 35 49 3 52
378.1 1,660 1,656 3,316 2 554 1,623 4,177
379 927 924 1,852 3,014 1,479 4,493
380 76 79 155 343 158 501
381 2,864 2,869 5,734 12,890 6,313 19,203
382 19,040 19,758 38,798 57,959 46,524 104,483
382.1 1,067 1,061 2,128 4,802 2,335 7,137
383
383.1 14,223 14,214 28,436 49,779 31,270 81,049
383.2 357 356 713 1,249 783 2,033
384
385
386 1,956 1,942 3,897 3,694 5,825 9,519
386.1 530 529 1,059 1,002 1,588 2,589
386.2 - . . . - -
386.3 1,564 1,564 3,129 2,955 4.693 7,648
386.4 955 954 1,909 1,803 2,861 4,665
387 6,727 6,727 13,455 23,546 14,800 38,347
387.1 138 138 275 481 303 784
387.2 148 148 296 518 326 844
2005 Build-out Study - TAZs and areas.xls
G, Compo Buildout Study 2005
dw/March 2005
East of 951
2000 EST. 8/0 DUs EST 8/0 POP
TAZ SFDU MFDU Total DUs SF Population MF Population Total Population
387.3 127 127 255 446 280 726
388
388.1 1,422 1422 2,844 4,977 3,128 8,106
388.2 1,041 1,041 2,083 3,645 2,291 5,936
388.3 55 55 110 193 122 315
389 3,823 3,823 7645 13,379 8,410 21,789
389.1 - - - - - -
390 2,774 18 2,792 7,397 89 7,486
390.1 445 445 889 1,186 2,199 3,384
390.2 2,008 1,526 3,534 5,355 7,546 12,901
391 1,478 - 1,478 4,629 - 4,629
391.1 26 - 26 81 - 81
392 1,523 1,547 3,070 5,331 6,704 12,035
392.1 75 75 150 263 325 588
392.2 0 0 0 0 0 1
392.3 607 607 1,214 2,124 2,629 4,753
393 974 10 984 3,014 48 3,062
393.1 25 - 25 77 - 77
394 1,593 16 1,609 4,707 46 4,752
395 615 11 626 1,808 31 1,839
396 1,218 22 1,240 3,676 106 3,782
397 1,898 1,251 3,149 5,451 2,294 7,744
398 1,254 604 1,858 3,115 1,107 4,222
399 2,217 1,206 3,423 6,167 2,211 8,378
400 1,287 - 1,287 4,066 - 4,066
400.1 - - - - - -
400.2 40 - 40 126 - 126
401 - - - - - -
401.1 240 257 497 489 924 1,413
402 315 - 315 905 - 905
402.1 - - - - - -
lO2.2 - - - - - -
403.1 1,138 1,137 2,275 3,495 2,653 6,148
403.2 - - - - - -
404
405
406
407
408
409
409.1 849 849 1,699 4,065 2,848 6,913
410
411
412
413
416
417
418
418.1
f
2005 Build-out Study - TAZs and areas.xls
G. Comp, Buildout Study 2005
dw/March 2005
East of 951
East of CR-951 Collier Blvd.
t t t : - . :....
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
419 2,989 2,983 5,972 15,443 8617 24,060
420
420.1
420.2
421
421.1 8,588 8,594 17,183 20,208 24.828 45,037
421.2 38 38 75 89 109 197
421.3
422 1,672 1,669 3,341 4,458 4,821 9,280
425
425.1
425.2 4,265 4,262 8,526 13,594 6,974 20,567
426
426.1 98 98 196 462 330 792
426.2 16 16 33 78 55 133
427 2,407 2.407 4,814 11,370 8,111 19,481
428
429
430
430.1 1,205 1,205 2,409 5,690 4,059 9,749
431
432
433
434
435
436
sum 136,010 116,541 252,552 425,294 260,783 686,077
NOTES:
SFDU = Single Family Dwelling Unit
MFDU = Multi-Family Dwelling Unit
TAZ = Traffic Analysis Zone
maroon TAZ # = Immokalee urban area All data for Immokalee entered on TAZ #382,
pmk TAl # ~ RLSA
'.,>,'! I RFMUIJ
Immokalee figures per 1991 Inunokalee Area Master Plan.
Data should not necessarily be considered accurate for a single T AZ; it is considered most reliable when multiple contiguous T AZs are aggregated.
Prepared by Collie/" County Comprehensive Planning Department. March 2005.
2005 Build-out Study - TAZs and areas.xls
G, Comp, Buildout Study 2005
dw/March 2005
RFMUD
Rural Frin e Mixed Use District RFMUD
III : . . :....
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
217 655 403 1,058 1,659 879 2,539
219 108 3 111 332 7 339
223 335 - 335 994 - 994
223.1 44 - 44 131 - 131
223.2 112 - 112 332 - 332
224 180 12 192 534 16 550
224.1 60 2 62 178 3 181
225 1,217 1,145 2,362 3,610 1,561 5,172
227 560 - 560 1,661 - 1,661
227.1 59 - 59 175 - 175
227.2 81 - 81 240 - 240
228 104 9 113 314 12 327
228.1 128 - 128 387 - 387
229 362 9 371 944 11 955
229.1 75 - 75 196 - 196
230.1 - - - - - -
355 2,856 1,864 4,720 13,090 7,100 20,190
355.1 15 - 15 69 - 69
355.2 - - - - - -
356 26 18 44 104 35 139
357.1 1,523 291 1,814 4,143 399 4,542
357.2 165 15 180 449 21 469
358.1 21 - 21 84 - 84
359.1 - - - - - -
360.1 38 1 39 152 1 153
361.1 20 - 20 47 - 47
362.1 - - - - - -
365 242 239 481 510 319 829
367 10 - 10 21 - 21
392.1 75 75 150 263 325 588
392.2 0 0 0 0 0 1
397 1,898 1,251 3,149 5,451 2,294 7,744
400.1 - - - - - -
400.2 40 - 40 126 - 126
401 - - - . - -
401.1 240 257 497 489 924 1,413
402 315 - 315 905 - 905
402.2 - - - - - -
403.1 1,138 1,137 2,275 3,495 2,653 6,148
403.2 - - . . - -
sum 12,702 6,731 19,433 41,085 16,559 57,644
NOTES:
SFDU = Single Family Dwelling Unit
:MFDU = Multi-Family Dwelling Unit
T AZ = Tnll'fic Analysis Zone
Data should not necessarily be considered accurate for a single TAZ; it is considered most reliable when multiple contiguous TAZs are aggregated.
Prepared by Collier Count)' Comprehensive Planning Department. March 2005,
2005 Build-out Study - TAZs and areas.xls
G, Comp, Buildout Study 2005
dw/March 2005
Coastal Urban
2000 EST BIO OUs EST. B/O POP
TAZ SFDU MFDU Total DUs SF Population MF Population Total Population
1 9.059 18,193 27.252 14,762 26 209 40,971 ALL
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
51
52
53
S6
57
58
61
Coastal Urb~n Area
of Napks
2005 Build-out Study - T AZs and areas.xls
G, Comp, Buildout Study 2005
dw/March 2005
Coastal Urban
Coastal Urb~n Area
2000 EST. BIO DUs EST BIO POP
TAZ SFDU MFDU TotalDUs SF Population MF Population Total Population
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
73 232 1,002 1,234 464 1,677 2,141
74 - - - - - -
75 36 165 201 76 129 205
76 126 706 832 278 567 845
77 147 287 434 366 266 632
78 200 668 868 239 665 904
79 204 528 732 311 674 985
80 29 580 609 39 429 468
81 508 297 805 903 347 1,250
82 342 973 1,315 611 946 1,558
83 37 132 169 48 96 143
84 212 629 841 303 502 805
85 296 296 592 462 370 832
86 373 374 747 582 468 1,049
87 883 441 1,324 2,469 738 3,207
88 462 330 792 865 305 1,170
89 320 254 574 499 318 817
90 412 438 850 772 405 1,177
91 1 3 4 a 4 4
92 4 - 4 7 - 7
93 228 698 926 206 887 1,093
94 1,108 87 1,195 3,270 90 3,360
95 301 882 1,183 766 981 1,747
96 287 206 493 873 306 1,179
97 - - - - - -
98 36 86 122 121 129 250
99 132 82 214 196 74 270
100 85 92 177 148 73 222
101 330 272 602 536 213 749
102 130 127 257 142 87 229
103 231 164 395 578 258 836
104 425 131 556 1,055 296 1,351
105 496 107 603 1,172 286 1,458
106 154 201 355 160 130 290
107 303 212 515 650 277 927
108 481 143 624 1,012 278 1,290
109 621 139 760 1,248 301 1,549
112 - - - - - -
113 503 575 1,078 809 392 1,201
114 560 913 1,473 1,599 982 2,581
115 670 1,085 1,755 1,576 1,078 2,654
116 669 930 1,599 1,760 1,846 3,606
117 - - - - - -
118 a - - - - a
2005 Build-out Study - T AZs and areas.xls
G, Compo Buildout Study 2005
dw/March 2005
Coastal Urban
2000 EST. 8/0 DUs EST 8/0 POP,
TAZ SFDU MFDU Total DUs SF Population MF Population Total Population
119 198 170 388 664 217 871
119.1 125 221 346 413 282 695
120 205 320 525 309 188 497
121
122 206 1,493 1,699 420 1,640 2,060
123 19 284 303 43 373 416
123.1
124 67 500 567 114 606 720
124.1 . .
125 438 567 1,005 966 769 1,735
126 - . - . - .
127 1 191 192 1 121 122
128 208 528 736 396 529 925
129 441 1,461 1,902 650 1,242 1,892
130 79 424 503 84 347 431
131 141 1,016 1,157 269 759 1,028
132 702 2,034 2,736 898 1,716 2,614
133 189 698 887 373 452 825
134 18 104 122 40 73 113
135 25 837 862 28 768 796
136 . 553 553 . 1,106 1,106
137 144 750 894 209 352 561
138 94 628 722 126 269 395
139 258 164 422 802 295 1,097
140 277 197 474 503 210 713
141 51 10 61 80 9 89
142 43 42 85 68 38 105
143 87 63 150 281 120 401
144 281 205 486 412 177 590
147 645 682 1,327 1,361 811 2,172
148 604 379 983 1,591 733 2324
151 443 297 740 1,263 420 1,683
152 1 . .
153 345 539 884 843 950 1,793
154 31 - .
155 180 179 359 360 168 528
155.1 297 -
156 21 . -
157 1,183 1,173 2,356 4,141 2,581 6,721
158 109 82 191 373 193 566
158.1 357 215 572 1,221 507 1,728
159 911 1,003 1,914 2,803 1,448 4,250
160 799 962 1761 1,570 1,350 2,920
161 784 967 1,751 2,412 1,571 3,983
162 63 4n 540 224 723 947
163 380 809 1,189 304 552 856
164 516 236 752 1,399 425 1,824
165 1 - 1 2 - 2
166 97 - 97 291 . 291
167 169 . 169 411 . 411
168 316 332 648 505 333 838
Coastal Urban Area
2005 Build-out Study - T AZs and areas.xls
G, Camp, Build out Study 2005
dw/March 2005
Coastal Urban
Coastal Urbcn Area
2000 EST. 810 DUs EST 8/0 POP
TAZ SFDU MFDU Total DUs SF Population MF Population Total Population
168.1 297 293 590 475 294 768
169 399 150 549 603 135 739
170 580 856 1,436 929 1,140 2,069
171 357 687 1,044 813 1,039 1,852
172 813 1,863 2,676 1,851 2,818 4,669
173 182 122 304 275 110 385
174 182 122 304 275 110 385
175 74 368 442 168 641 809
176 . 180 180 - 106 106
177 264 7 271 804 17 821
178 204 9 213 596 15 611
179 987 953 1,940 2435 1,552 3,987
180 1,128 1,338 2,466 2,782 2,179 4,961
181 268 13 281 798 26 824
182 310 11 321 941 20 961
183 1,039 1,063 2,102 1,903 1,207 3,110
184 993 478 1,471 1,793 542 2,335
185 652 1,033 1,685 1,116 928 2,044
186 670 929 1,599 1,355 994 2,348
187 237 14 251 698 26 724
188 201 15 216 661 32 693
189 . - . . . .
190 251 856 1,107 737 1,498 2,235
190.1 47 4 51 138 7 145
191 327 126 453 920 257 1,178
192 84 . 84 269 . 269
193 176 1 177 510 .. 510
194 260 6 266 763 20 783
195 317 45 362 907 93 1,000
195.1 27 . 27 77 . 77
196 . - . . . .
197 357 199 556 1,282 638 1,920
198 11 53 64 36 153 189
199 580 290 870 2,139 630 2,768
200 27 358 385 74 1,013 1,088
200.1 . 126 126 . 357 357
201 235 249 484 749 733 1,482
202 379 277 656 1,383 750 2,133
203 169 93 262 559 321 880
204 248 366 614 632 983 1,614
205 120 224 344 331 505 836
205.1 . 51 51 . 115 115
206 230 237 467 844 708 1,552
207 319 568 887 1004 1,907 2,912
208 284 573 857 845 483 1,328
209 672 210 882 2,094 771 2,865
210 236 111 347 783 353 1,136
211 362 126 488 1,116 379 1,495
220 1,790 2,202 3,992 3,855 842 4,697
221 217 12 229 638 29 667
230 . - . . - -
2005 Build-out Study - T AZs and areas.xls
G, Comp, Buildout Study 2005
dw/March 2005
Coastal Urban
2000 EST. 8/0 DUs EST B/O POP
TAZ SFDU MFDU Total DUs SF Population MF Population Total Population
231 247 9 256 646 33 679
232 285 7 292 834 28 862
233 - - - - Q -
240 297 - 297 915 - 915
241 193 7 200 618 17 635
241.1 34 - 34 109 - 109
244 432 670 1,102 144 96 240
245 463 1,384 1,847 904 841 1,745
245.1 125 116 241 244 71 315
245.2 98 97 195 191 59 250
246 528 427 955 1,375 956 2,331
247 394 2,045 2.439 684 2,278 2,962
247.1 125 290 415 217 323 540
248 306 1,372 1,678 612 833 1,445
249 490 920 1,410 823 994 1.817
250 376 749 1,125 759 979 1,738
250.1 7 - 7 14 - 14
251 123 961 1,084 467 1,197 1,665
252 548 1,070 1.618 1,461 2,025 3,487
253 156 1,668 1,824 530 1,693 2,223
254 232 675 907 519 1,132 1,651
255 - 1 1 - 2 2
256 49 451 500 91 627 718
257 624 911 1,535 1,468 1,198 2,666
257.1 65 268 333 153 352 505
258 349 240 589 666 569 1,235
259 561 369 930 968 916 1,884
260 - - - - - -
261 - - - - - -
262 - - - - - -
263 - - - - - -
264 808 2,960 3,768 1,721 6,218 7,939
265 469 1,680 2,149 716 1,457 2,173
266 217 278 495 417 730 1,147
267 440 814 1,254 684 1,553 2,237
270 267 396 663 805 922 1,727
271 4 317 321 8 263 271
272 349 142 491 841 248 1,089
273
274 394 453 847 747 340 1,087
275 329 365 694 974 425 1,399
276 153 141 294 495 546 1,042
277 234 195 429 542 273 815
278 69 228 297 132 241 373
279 545 512 1,057 1,021 572 1,594
280 295 778 1,073 762 1,182 1,944
281 229 433 662 563 430 993
282 221 1,053 1,274 427 1,121 1,548
283 5 115 120 7 134 141
284 37 937 974 72 1383 1,455
287 133 145 278 397 254 651
Coastal Urb.:n Area
2005 Build-out Study - T AZs and areas.xls
G, Camp, Buildout Study 2005
dw/March 2005
Coastal Urban
2000 EST. BIO DUs EST. BIO POP
TAZ SFDU MFDU Total DUs SF Population MF Population Total Population,
287.1 21 501 522 63 878 941
288 95 64 159 377 197 573
288.1 109 347 456 432 1,066 1,498
289 44 201 245 151 276 427
290 50 35 85 124 88 212
291 95 734 829 241 874 1,115
292 281 223 504 422 217 639
292.1 85 85 170 128 83 210
293 147 203 350 471 717 1,188
294 1.237 763 2,000 3,022 2,691 5,713
294.1 834 456 1,290 2,037 1,608 3,645
295 216 367 583 504 874 1,378
296 311 662 973 516 898 1,415
297
298 8 12 20 8 9 17
301 98 685 783 172 846 1,018
302 781 1,286 2,067 1,481 1,487 2,968
303 359 1,678 2,037 589 3,212 3.802
303.1 42 465 507 69 890 959
304 350 932 1,282 359 1,098 1,457
305 549 2,834 3,383 1,647 3,500 5,147
306 943 2,310 3,253 1,041 2,839 3,880
307 546 224 770 2,619 970 3,589
308 519 110 629 2,234 446 2.680
309 794 932 1,726 1,303 784 2,088
310 32 478 510 51 494 546
310.1 478 364 842 767 376 1,144
311 661 1,099 1,760 1,339 1,247 2,586
312 351 375 726 907 600 1,S07
312.1 560 560 1,120 1,447 896 2,343
313 260 260 520 173 269 442
313.1 152 153 305 101 158 260
313.2 87 - 87 58 - 58
313.3 6 - 6 4 - 4
314
::1 ' 3.G55 ::H' 1 ::L:~7i 19,560 21,444 41,004
31
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.) ...
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Coastal Urb2n Area
ADofMI
2005 Build-out Study - T AZs and areas.xls
G, Camp, Buildout Study 2005
dw/March 2005
Coastal Urban
2000 EST. BID DUs EST. BIO POP.
TAZ SFDU MFDU TotalDUs SF Population MF Population Total Population
333
33.,
337
33B
339
340
343 542 1,169 1,711 1,028 1,466 2,493
343.1 - 3 3 - 4 4
343.3 3,158 4,920 8,078 5,988 6,169 12,156
344 361 1,272 1,633 402 1,438 1,840
345 139 1,036 1,175 147 1,075 1,222
345.1 43 979 1,022 46 1,016 1,062
346 461 1036 1,497 424 978 1,402
357 1,020 1,570 2,590 2,774 2,153 4,927
358 273 618 891 1,092 462 1,554
359 313 322 635 1,252 241 1,493
360 293 796 1,089 1,172 595 1,767
361 519 507 1,026 1,223 1,003 2,227
362 1,133 639 1,772 4,532 478 5,010
366 399 370 769 1,241 888 2,129
368 808 805 1,613 1,703 1,073 2,777
369 850 . 850 1,792 - 1,792
370 - 313 313 . 417 417
371 528 392 920 1,260 585 1,845
372 483 50 533 882 57 939
373 273 365 638 674 566 1,240
374 178 650 828 299 676 975
375 353 613 966 485 526 1,011
376 452 655 1,107 430 394 825
377 198 197 395 189 119 307
403 604 603 1,207 1,855 1,407 3,262
sum 97,219 148,799 246,368 217,633 208,431 426,064
Coastal Urbcn Area
NOTES:
SFDU = Single Family Dwelling Unit
MFDU = Multi-Family Dwelling Unit
T AZ = Traffic Analysis Zone
Coastal Urban area: from Gulf of Mexico east to approximately I mile east of Call1ier Blvd.; from Lee County line south to Gulf of Mexico
blue = Cil)' of Naples All data for Naples entered on TAZ #1.
All data for Marco Island entered on T AZ #317,
Naples figures per 1994 Urban Area Buildout Study, Phase L
Marco Island figures per 1996 Marco Island Master Plan.
Data should not necessarily be considered accurate for a single T AZ; it is considered most reliable when multiple contiguous T AZs are aggregated
Prepared by Collier County Comprehensive Planning Department. March 2005,
2005 Build-out Study - T AZs and areas.xls
G, Comp, Buildout Study 2005
dw/March 2005
Exhibit B
Transportation Modeling
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Exhibit C
East of County Road 951 Utilities
Study
COlliER COUNT'(WATER-SEWER DISTRICT
~;;S=)i'?r~~~;i
'!l:::=;.:f.~.t~~~
East of County Road 951 Utilities Study
28 3:00 FEBRUARY 2006
GPI..L.V AND HANSIiN LLe
COLLIER COUNTY GOVERNMENT
PUBLIC UTILITIES ENGINEERING DEPARTMENT
East of County Road 951 Utilities Study
GREELEY AND HANSEN LLC
28 3:00 February 2006
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Section Title Pae-e
Section 1 Executive Summary..... ...................... ...... ............. .., ..... .............................. ............................. 1
1.1 Introduction................. ... ................................................. ...... .......... ....................... ....................... 1
1.2 Summary... .......... ...................... ......... ............................. ...................... ..................... .... ........ ....... 1
Section 2 Project Scope and Description ............................................................................................... 5
2.1 Project Scope.. ........... ................ ................... ............................................... ........... ....................... 5
2.2 Development of Costs ............................ ...................... ................................................................ 5
2.3 Existing Utilities and Infrastructure within Project Area ................................................. 6
Section 3 Design Criteria - Water Distribution System .................................................................... 7
3.1 Design Criteria ....................................... .......... ......... ...... ........... ................ .................................. 7
3.2 Hydraulic Modeling ......................... .......... ............ ........................ ............ ........... ............. .......... 7
3.2.1 Modeling Parameters............ .......... ........ ......... ..... .... .................................. .................. 7
3.2.2 Modeling Simulations................................................................................................... 8
3.3 Hydraulic Modeling AnalysIs .................................................................................................... 9
3.4 Recommended Water Distribution System Layout.............................................................. 9
Section 4 Water Distribution System Project Costs ......................................................................... 10
4.1 Preliminary Project Costs ........................................................................................................ 10
4.2 Cost per Customer ..................................................................................................................... 10
Section 5 Design Criteria - Wastewater Collection and Transmission System.......................... 11
5.1 Design Criteria ............ ........ ..... ................... ...... ..... .................................................................... 11
5.2 Recommended Wastewater Collection System Design...................................................... 11
Section 6 Wastewater Collection and Transmission System Project Costs................................. 13
6.1 Preliminary Project Costs ........................................................................................................13
6.2 Cost per Customer ..................................................................................................................... 13
Section 7 Permitting and Property Acquisition................................................................................. 14
7.1 Permits ...... .................................................. ........................ .......................................... ............... 14
7.2 Property Acquisition.............. .................................................................................................... 14
7 .2.1 Water Distribution ......................... .................. ............. ......... ........ ............. ................ 14
7 .2.2 Wastewater Collection. .............. ........ .............. ........ .... .......................... ................ ..... 14
Section 8 Projected Expansion Costs of Water and Wastewater Utilities Throughout Golden
Gate Estates.. ......... ................... ..................................... ............ .............. .... ........................ ....... 15
8.1 Preliminary Water and Wastewater Distribution System Design.................................. 15
8.2 Projected Costs for PROJECT AREA (East of CR 951 within Water Sewer District) 15
8.3 Projected Costs for AREA 1 (West of CR 951 within Water Sewer District) ................ 15
8.4 Projected Costs for AREA 2 (East of CR 951 outside Water Sewer District)................ 16
TABLES
3-1 Project Area Residential Water Demand
3-2 Estimated Population Densities and Annual Average Daily Water Demand
through 2030
4-1 Preliminary Water Distribution System Cost Estimate
5-1 Project Area Residential Wastewater Flow Rates
5-2 Estimated Population Densities and Wastewater Flow Rates through 2030
6-1 Preliminary Wastewater Collection System Cost Estimate
FIGURES
2-1 East of C.R. 951 Study Areas
3-1 Project Area Water Distribution System Layout
5-1 Project Area Wastewater Collection System Layout
11
Section 1
Executive Summary
1.1 Introduction
On August 12, 2005, the Collier County Public Utilities Engineering
Department (PUED) authorized Greeley and Hansen to perform an
engineering study to identify water and wastewater facilities and costs
necessary to serve the Golden Gate Estates Area, within the current Water-
Sewer District boundary, east of County Road (C.R.) 951.
Three levels of service were initially identified by the County for this study as
follows:
. Premium;
· Intermediate Service; and
. Status Quo
Only intermediate service (water only) and premium service (full water and
wastewater service) were analyzed.
1.2 Summary
According to the Draft 2005 Residential Build-Out Study prepared by the
Collier County Comprehensive Planning Department, the build-out
population for the Golden Gate Estates area is approximately 91,000
residents. The year that build-out occurs was not forecast in the study. The
area east of CR 951 is projected to contain the majority (approximately 55%)
of the County's population at build-out.
Layouts for the installation of water distribution and wastewater collection
systems within Golden Gate Estates were developed for the Project Area.
The Project Area consists of approximately five square miles within the
Water-Sewer District east of CR 951.
Golden Gate Estates comprises approximately 80 square miles of Collier
County east of CR 951. Cost estimates for water and wastewater service
were developed to serve the Golden Gate Estates area east of CR 951 within
the Water-Sewer District boundary (Project Area). The costs were used as a
basis of costs for providing water and wastewater service to all of Golden
Gate Estates. The cost estimates have been divided into three areas as
follows:
· Areas in Golden Gates Estates within the Water-Sewer District and east
of CR 951 (Project Area);
· Areas in Golden Gate Estates within the Water-Sewer District and west
of CR 951 (Area 1); and
· Areas in Golden Gate Estates outside of the Water-Sewer District and
east of CR 951 (Area 2).
All of the above areas are shown on Figure 2-1.
Cost figures for the above areas are also divided into four elements for water
utilities and three elements for wastewater utilities as follows:
Water:
· Raw Water Supply Cost Element - Cost to construct raw water supply
facilities (wells, pumps and pipelines).
· Treatment Cost Element - Cost to construct water treatment facilities.
· Transmission Cost Element - Cost to construct required transmission
mains from the water plant to the distribution system.
· Distribution Cost Element - Cost to construct water distribution mains
and appurtenances.
Wastewater:
· Collection Cost Element - Cost to construct wastewater collection
systems.
· Transmission Cost Element - Cost to construct wastewater transmission
systems from the collection system to the water reclamation facility.
· Treatment Cost Element - Cost to construct treatment and disposal
facilities.
The water and wastewater cost estimates for the above three areas are:
PROJECT AREA (East of CR 951 within Water Sewer District)
ESTIMATED WATER COSTS
Total Cost Cost per
Customer
Supply and Treatment Cost $6,936,000 $5,070
Element
Distribution Cost Element $31,779,000 $23,230
30% Contingency $11,615,000 $8,490
TOTAL $50,330,000 $37,000
ESTIMATED WASTEWATER COSTS
Collection Cost Element $66,264,000 $48,438
Treatment/Disposal Cost Element $7,000,000 $5,117
30% Contingency $21,979,000 $16,067
TOTAL $95,243,000 $70,000
GRAND TOTAL $145,573,000 $107,000
2
~.
AREA 1 (West of CR951 within Water Sewer District)
ESTIMATED WATER COSTS
Cost per Section
Supply and Treatment Cost $1,387,100
Element
Distribution Cost Element .- $6,355,743
30% Contingency $2,322,853
TOTAL $10,066,000
ESTIMATED WASTEWATER COSTS
Collection Cost Element $13,252,772
Treatment/Disposal Cost Element $1,400,000
30% Contingency $4,395,832
TOTAL $19,049,000
GRAND TOTAL (Per Section.) $29,115,000
The .estimated cost per customer for water and wastewater utility service in
Area 1 would be similar to the cost per customer for the Project Area.
AREA 2 (East of CR 951 outside Water Sewer District)
ESTIMATED WATER COSTS
Cost per Section
Supply and Treatment Cost $1,387,100
Element
Transmission Cost Element $1,001,000
Distribution Cost Element $6,355,743
30% Contingency $2,623,153
TOTAL $11,367,000
ESTIMATED WASTEWATER COSTS
Collection Cost Element $13,252,772
Transmission Cost Element $200,000
Treatment/Disposal Cost Element $1,400,000
30% Contingency $4,455,832
.
TOTAL $19,309,000
GRAND TOTAL (Per Section.) $30,676,000
Development patterns within Area 2 are platted as 2.5 to 5 acre lots as with a
majority of the Golden Gate Estates area. Therefore, the five sections used in
this study are considered representative of all of Golden Gate Estates. The
Water-Sewer District boundaries would need to be expanded to provide water
3
and wastewater utility service to Area 2. If road extensions and development
are planned for Area 2, the County should reserve 30-foot wide utility
corridors along all major roads for water and wastewater facilities.
The cost per customer for Area 2 would be substantially higher than in the
Project Area based on the current parcel density.
These cost figures are capital costs for providing Golden Gate Estates with
the infrastructure and facilities necessary to provide intermediate or
premium service and do not include costs associated with maintenance of the
system.
Areas north, south and east of Golden Gate Estates are not part of this
analysis. Areas north and south of Golden Gate Estates are considered
sending areas which make utility construction very difficult. The areas to the
east of Golden Gate Estates are considered Rural Lands Stewardship Areas
(RLSA). RLSA lands are governed under Chapter 189 rules which state that
local self-governing lands are receiving lands and are required to have water
and wastewater service; however, such service does not have to be provided'
by the Collier County Water-Sewer District.
4
Section 2
Project Scope and Description
2.1 Project Scope
The scope of services for the East of C.R. 951 Study is comprised of an
evaluation of utilities required to provide- only water service or water and
wastewater service to the Golden Gate Estates area east of C.R. 951 and
within the current Water-Sewer District boundary. This area (the Project
Area) comprises about five square miles (sections) along the east side of C.R.
951 from Vanderbilt Beach Road Extension to one mile south of Golden Gate
Parkway. More specifically, this area is located within Range 26, Township
49, Sections 2, 11, 14, 23 and 26, and bounded on the north by Vanderbilt
Beach Road Extension, on the east by the Golden Gate Main Canal and the
Cypress Canal, on the south by the Golden Gate Main Canal, and on the west
by the CR 951 Canal. The Project Area is shown in Figure 2-1.
Three levels of service for the project area were considered. These include:
· Premium Service - full water and wastewater utility service;
· Intermediate Service - water utility service only (no wastewater utility
service); and
· Status Quo - continued use of individual private wells for water service
and septic tanks for wastewater treatment. Under the status quo level of
service, there would be no provisions for County services.
For wastewater service, an intermediate level of service does not exist. For
water service, an intermediate level of service was considered to provide
water service only.
In accordance with the scope of services, preliminary water and wastewater
facility layouts have been developed and sized within the Project Area based
on the County's Level of Service (LOS) standards that have been adopted
with the current Ordinances and water and wastewater master plans. Water
main layouts are based on providing potable water and fire service to all
residents. Wastewater service is based on providing conventional gravity
wastewater service to all residents with pumping stations at appropriate
locations. Both utility systems connect to the existing infrastructure.
Layouts and costs for water and wastewater service have been developed for
the five-section area described above. In addition, water and wastewater
facility layouts and costs have been developed for two sections in Golden Gate
Estates east (outside) of the Water-Sewer District Boundary.
2.2 Development of Costs
Capital costs for the infrastructure required for water and wastewater service
within the Project Area are calculated to provide for the "intermediate" and
"premium service" described above. All cost estimates are based on 2005
5
,"
dollars and are based on similar, recent local projects. The costs included in
the estimates are based on providing facilities necessary to serve the build-
out population in accordance with the Draft 2005 Build-Out Study prepared
by the Collier County Comprehensive Planning Department.
2.3 Existing Utilities and Infrastructure within Project Area
All of the existing residents within the Project Area currently utilize private
septic tanks for wastewater disposal and private wells for drinking water.
The Project Area has paved roads with the exception of 1st Avenue NW and
3rd Avenue SW. These two roads are unpaved west of Weber Boulevard.
Cleared right-of-way areas are located on both sides of all roadways.
Overhead electric is used to supply power to the residents. Buried cable lines
are located throughout the Project Area.
Within the residential Project Area, there are a variety of public and
commercial facilities. The Project Area also contains existing 42, 36 and 30-
inch water transmission mains.
6
Section 3
Design Criteria - Water Distribution System
3.1 Design Criteria
The design criteria for this study were developed in accordance with Collier
County standards and Florida Department of Environmental Protection
(FDEP) rules and regulations.
The water distribution system has been hydraulically modeled to maintain a
minimum pressure of 50 psi under peak hourly flow (normal operating
conditions) and a minimum pressure of 40 psi under maximum day flow (fire
flow conditions).
The preliminary layouts and costs for the Golden Gate Estates water
distribution system are based on 185 gallons per capita per day (gpcd) water
demand and fire flows as outlined in Section 1.2 of the Collier County
Standards Manual.
Based on the Draft 2005 Residential Build-Out Study, it is estimated that 2.8
persons per parcel will be living in the Project Area at build-out. There are a
total of 1,368 parcels within the Project Area. Therefore, it is estimated that
the annual average daily demand CAADD) for the residential dwellings will
be approximately 715,000 gallons per day (gpd) at build-out. The AADD for
the Project Area is shown in Table 3-1. The projected population increases
and the corresponding AADD in five- year increments for the Project Area are
shown in Table 3-2.
System layouts and costs of the water distribution system are based on
systems constructed in accordance with Collier County Utility Standards.
3.2 Hydraulic Modeling
The Collier County KY Pipe 2000 model was used as a basis in developing the
preliminary distribution system for the Project Area. The KY Pipe 2000
hydraulic model includes a database of information defining new and existing
transmission mains, junctions, tanks, pumps and valves within the Collier
County utility infrastructure to simulate operating conditions.
3.2.1 Modeling Parameters
The water infrastructure requirements required to provide service to
the project area at build-out conditions were developed by evaluating
the County's transmission system under the following flow conditions:
· Annual Average Daily Demand CAADD) - the total water supplied
in one year divided by the number of days in the year.
7
· Maximum Daily Demand (MDD) - the maximum quantity of water
supplied in a single day during one year, equivalent to 1.3 times
the AADF.
· Peak Hour Demand (PHD) - the maximum quantity of water used
in a single hour during a one-year period, equivalent to 2.6 times
theAADF.
The range of acceptable flow velocities under various flow conditions is
generally considered to be 2 to 8 feet per second (fps). Under average
flow conditions a velocity of 3 to 6 fps provides the lowest operating
costs. High velocities can result in excessive head loss, thereby
increasing pumping costs. Low velocities result in longer travel times,
making it difficult to maintain adequate residual levels of chlorine,
which can lead to poor water quality. Using the parameters above, it
was established that the acceptable range of velocities in the
distribution system network should be 2 fps to an absolute maximum
of 8 fps under any simulation.
3.2.2 Modeling Simulations
Operating conditions at the discharge water treatment plants were
simulated by modeling the plants with pressures of 80 psi. This
pressure value was based on information received from Collier County
regarding the typical operation of the high service pumps located at
the existing plants.
Pumping stations necessary to provide water to the Golden Gate
Estate distribution system are the Carica, Manatee, Capri and
Vanderbilt pumping stations and are modeled as follows:
· Pump stations were modeled using pump curves provided by the
County. Firm pumping capacity was used (largest pump out of
service) .
· Maximum day and average day demand conditions were modeled
without any pump stations operating.
· Peak hour demand conditions were modeled with at least one
pump operating at each pump station.
· C Factor was assumed to be 135 for all pipes.
· The Vanderbilt pump station was designed for use III fire flow
conditions only and was included in this analysis.
8
3.3 Hydraulic Modeling Analysis
Each model run was analyzed to ensure that velocities throughout the
transmission system were within the acceptable range. The minimum
system pressure was also checked to see that it satisfied the County's level of
serVIce.
The Golden Gate Estates distribution system. was also modeled to ensure that
the pipe layout and size provide reliable service to customers while meeting
the County's established level of service at the proposed build-out
populations.
3.4 Recommended Water Distribution System Layout
Figure 3-1 shows the water distribution system layout for the Project Area.
The preliminary distribution system layout includes approximately 103,000
linear feet of 8-inch water main and 57,800 linear feet of 12-inch water main.
These mains would be supplied by existing 30, 36, and 42-inch transmission
lines. The water distribution system also includes various required
appurtenances such as gate valves, air release valves, fire hydrants and
water meters.
9
Section 4
Water Distribution System Project Costs
4.1 Prelimina_ry Project Costs
A preliminary estimate of construction costs for the proposed Project Area
water distribution system is shown in Table 4-1. The estimate has been
prepared based on recent, similar projects.
The total project cost for the water distribution system in the Project Area is
$31,779,000.
4.2 Cost per Customer
Based on service to 1,368 existing parcels, the cost per customer is estimated
to be $23,230 for the Project Area water distribution system. Based on unit
costs in the 2005 AUIR, the additional per customer cost for water supply and
treatment is $5,070. A 30% contingency cost has been added to the estimate.
Therefore, the total estimated cost per customer for the water distribution
system in the Project Area is approximately $37,000.
10
Section 5
Design Criteria - Wastewater Collection and Transmission System
5.1 Design Criteria
The design criteria for this study were developed in accordance with Collier
County standards and Florida Department of Environmental Protection
(FDEP) rules and regulations.
Force mains have been sized to provide a desired flushing velocity of two and
one-half feet per second with a minimum allowable velocity of eight feet per
second.
The wastewater collection and transmission system is based on 145 gpcd for
all residents located within the Project Area. Peaking factors were applied to
establish the firm pumping capacity for each pumping station. Using the
"Recommended Standards for Wastewater Facilities" as released by the
Great Lakes-Upper Mississippi River Board of State Sanitary Engineers,
1997 ed.; the peaking factor was obtained using the following equation:
Peaking Factor = (18 + (p) 112) + (4 + (p) 1/2); where P = Population III
Thousands
Based on the Draft 2005 Residential Build-Out Study, it is estimated that
approximately 2.8 persons per parcel will be living in the ProjeCt Area at
build-out. There are a total of 1,368 parcels within the project area.
Therefore, it is estimated that the annual average daily wastewater flow rate
for the area will be approximately 561,000 gpd at build-out. There are
several commercial and institutional facilities located in this area. These
facilities are included in the tabulation of estimated wastewater flow shown
in Table 5-1. Table 5-2 shows the projected population and wastewater flow
increases in five year increments for the Project Area.
All wastewater collection and transmission system layouts and costs are
based on systems designed and constructed in accordance with Collier County
Utility Standards.
5.2 Recommended Wastewater Collection System Design
Figure 5-1 shows the preliminary wastewater collection and transmission
system design. There are currently no County wastewater facilities adjacent
to the project area. However, the 2005 Wastewater Master Plan Update
includes recommendations for budgeting and planning-level locations for the
following wastewater improvements: (1) Construction by Year 2010 of a new
16-inch diameter force main in Vanderbilt Beach Road Extension along the
northern boundary of the project area. This force main will convey
wastewater flow to the Vanderbilt Beach Road Pumping Station and
ultimately to the North County Water Reclamation Facility (NCWRF); (2)
Construction by Year 2010 of a new master pumping station east of the
11
project area and a new 12-inch diameter force main in Pine Ridge Road
ExtensionlWhite Boulevard routed through the project area; and (3)
Construction by Year 2012 of the new East Central Master Pumping Station
and Pretreatment Facility east of the project area.
The wastewater collection and transmission facilities for the project area are
proposed to connect to future planned wastewater improvements. Facilities
planned for Golden Gate Units 3 and 4 (Township 51, Range 26, Sections 2
and 11 respectively) would pump to the proposed 16-inch diameter force main
in Vanderbilt Beach Road Extension. Facilities planned for Units 27 and 28
(Township 51, Range 26, Sections 14, 23 and 26) would connect to the
proposed 12-inch diameter force main in Pine Ridge Road Extension/White
Boulevard.
Due to the generally flat topography of the project area and the relatively
long distances between street intersections, the need for two duplex pumping
stations on each east-west street is recommended to convey the wastewater to
the County's wastewater transmission system. A single pumping station per
street, while hydraulically feasible, would require numerous sewer and
pumping station excavations to depths greater than 12 feet, resulting in
higher dewatering and construction costs.
The Project Area has been divided into four areas, each containing eight to
twelve pumping stations. One pumping station in each area would serve as a
master pumping station in order to reduce the need for larger pumps and
force mains throughout the area.
12
Section 6
Wastewater Collection and Transmission System Project Costs
6.1 Preliminary Project Costs
A preliminary estimate of construction costs for the proposed Project Area
wastewater collection and transmission system is shown in Table 6-1. The
estimate has been prepared based on recent, similar projects.
The total project cost for the wastewater collection system in the Project Area
is $66,264,000.
6.2 Cost per Customer
Based on service to 1,368 parcels, the cost per customer is estimated to be
$48,438 for the wastewater collection system. Based on unit costs in the 2005
AUIR, the additional per customer cost for wastewater treatment and
disposal is $5,117. A 30% contingency cost has been added to the estimate.
Therefore, the total estimated cost per customer for wastewater service in the
Project Area is approximately $70,000.
13
Section 7
Permitting and Property Acquisition
7.1 Permits
The following permit applications will need to be prepared for the installation
of the new utilities discussed throughout tMs study:
· Collier County Right-of-Way Use
· FDOT Utility Permit
· FDEP Notice of Intent to Use the General Permit for Construction of
Water Main Extensions for Public Water Systems
· FDEP Notification/Application for Constructing a Domestic
Wastewater Collection/Transmission System
· SFWMD Right-of-Way Permit
7.2 Property Acquisition
7.2.1 Water Distribution
Based on the water distribution system layout for the Project Area,
approximately 31 acres of land would need to be acquired within an existing
South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD) right-of-way. Based on
the usability of the land, a cost of $100,000 per acre was assumed. The total
cost for water distribution system property acquisition within the Project
Area is $3,100,000.
7.2.2 Wastewater Collection
Based on the wastewater collection system layout for the Project Area,
approximately 37 pumping stations and 4 master pumping stations are
required. Using previous land acquisition figures, approximately 15 acres of
land would need to be acquired to accommodate the construction and
operation of the pumping stations. Based on usability of the land, a cost of
$200,000 per acre was assumed. The total cost for wastewater collection
system property acquisition within the Project Area is $3,000,000.
14
Section 8
Projected Expansion Costs of Water and Wastewater Utilities
Throughout Golden Gate Estates
8.1 Preliminary Water and Wastewater Distribution System Design
The East of CR 951 Utilities Study analyzed utility development for the
Project Area (sections 2, 11, 14, 23 and 26). Since these sections are similar
in size and layout to the entire Golden Gate Estates area, the Project Area
costs were used as a basis to develop future water distribution costs and
wastewater collection costs throughout all of Golden Gate Estates.
The total estimated cost for the expansion of water and wastewater utilities
to the Project Area is $98,043,000. There are five sections within the Project
Area. Therefore, the cost per section for water distribution and wastewater
collection is approximately $19,609,000.
Based on the 2005 AUIR, the following costs for the supply, treatment and
transmission of water and the transmission, treatment and disposal of
wastewater are shown below on a per section (per square mile) basis:
Cost Element Water Cost Wastewater Cost
(Per Section) (Per Section)
Water Supply and Treatment Cost $1,387,100 N/A
Element
Transmission Cost Element $1,001,000 $200,000
Wastewater Treatment/Disposal Cost N/A $1,400,000
Element
8.2 Projected Costs for PROJECT AREA (East of CR 951 within Water Sewer
District)
There are existing transmission mains available within the Project Area;
therefore, the transmission cost element is not included in the overall costs
for water/wastewater utility expansion in this area. There are five sections
located in the Project Area. The total cost for water and wastewater utility
expansion within the Project Area is $145,573,000.
8.3 Projected Costs for AREA 1 (West of CR 951 within Water Sewer District)
There are existing transmission mains within Area 1; therefore, the
transmission cost element is not included in the overall costs for
water/wastewater utility expansion in Area 1. There are thirteen sections
located in Area 1. The total cost for water and wastewater utility expansion
within Area 1 is estimated to be $378,495,000. The estimated cost per
customer for Area 1 would be similar to the cost per customer for the Project
Area.
15
-
8.4 Projected Costs for AREA 2 (East of CR 951 outside Water Sewer District)
Development patterns within Area 2 are platted as 2.5 to 5 acre lots as with a
majority of the Golden Gate Estates area. Therefore, the five sections used in
this study are considered representative of all Golden Gate Estates. The
potential exists for concentrated development zones such as rural villages.
The Water-Sewer District boundaries would need to be expanded to provide
water and wastewater utility service to -Area 2. If road extensions and
development are planned for Area 2, the County should reserve 30-foot wide
utility corridors along all major roads for water and wastewater facilities.
Area 2 would also require the installation of transmission mains, therefore,
the transmission cost element is included for both water and wastewater
utility installation. There are 75 sections located in Area 2. The total cost for
water and wastewater utility service within Area 2 is estimated to be
$2;300,700,000 to serve the entire 75 square mile area.
The cost per customer for Area 2 would be substantially higher than the cost
per customer for the Project Area based on the current parcel density.
16
COLLIER COUNTY GOVERNMENT
PUBLIC UTILITIES ENGINEERING DEPARTMENT
East of CR 951 Utilities Study
Table 3-1
Project Area Residential Water Demand
Greeley and Hansen LLC
28 3:00 February 2006
'. Build-Out Build-Out
Section Number of Build-out Persons Per LOS Demand AADD AADD
Parcels Population Parcel (gpcd) (QPd) (oom)
2 239 667 2.8 185 123,.3.95 86
11 242 744 3.1 185 137,640 96
14 315 915 2.9 185 169,275 118
23 303 862 2.8 185 159,470 111
26 269 679 2.5 185 125,615 87
TOTAL 1,368 3,867 715,395 497
Average Persons Per Parcel = 2.8
gpcd = gallons per capita day
gpd = gallons per day
gpm = gallons per minute
AADD = Annual Average Daily Demand
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COLLIER COUNTY GOVERNMENT
PUBLIC UTILITIES 6f>JGINEERING DEPARTMENT
East of CR 951 Utilities Study
Table 4-1
Project Area Preliminary Water Distribution System Cost Estimate
Greeley and Hansen_LLC
283:00 February 2006
Item Description Quantity Unit Unit Price Construction
Cost
1 Mobilization 1 .LS $ 517,775 $ 517,775
2 Maintenance of Traffic 1 LS $ 100,000 $ 100,000
3 Raw Water PiDelines in ODen-cut Trench
Furnish and Install 8" Water Line and FittinQs 103,200 LF $ 65 $ 6,708,000
Furnish and Install 12" Water Line and Fittinos 57,800 LF $ 100 $ 5,780,000
4 Water Main Valves
Furnish and Install 8" Gate Valve 126 EA $ 3,500 $ 441,000
Furnish and Install 12" Gate Valve 60 EA $ 5,000 $ 300,000
Furnish and Install 36" Gate Valve 2 EA $ 30,000 $ 60,000
5 Air Release Valves
Furnish and Install New Air Release Valves and
Appurtenances 150 EA $ 4,500 $ 675,000
6 Fire Hydrant Assemblv
Furnish and Install Fire Hydrant Valve, Piping and
Hydrant 105 EA $ 6,500 $ 682,500
7 Water Meter
Furnish and Install 1" Water Meters and Meter
Boxes 1,368 EA $ 3,000 $ 4,104,000
Furnish and Install all Materials for Water Service
Connection (long and short connections) 900 EA $ 1,500 $ 1,350,000
8 Testing
Permanent Bac- T Samplinq Points 32 EA $ 2,000 $ 64,000
CONSTRUCTION COSTS: $ 20,782,275
20% CONSTRUCTION CONTINGENCY: $ 4,156,455
TOTAL CONSTRUCTION COST ESTIMATE: $ 24,938,730
15% PLANNING, DESIGN, INSPECTION AND ADMINISTRATION COSTS: $ 3,740,810
ESTIMATED PROPERTY ACQUISITION COSTS: $ 3,099,174
TOTAL COST ESTIMATE: $ 31,779,000
COLLIER COUNTY GOVERNMENT
PUBLIC UTILITIES ENGINEERING DEPARTMENT
East of CR 951 Utilities Study
Table 5-1
Project Area Residential Wastewater Flow Rates
Greeley and Hansen LLC
28 3:00 February 2006
Number of Build-out Persons Per LOS Flow Build-Out Build-Out
Section AADF AADF
Parcels Population Parcel Rate (gpcd) (gpd) (com)
2 239 667 2.8 145 96,715 67
11 242 744 3.1 145 107,880 75
14 315 915 2.9 145 132,675 92
23 303 862 2.8 145 124,990 87
26 269 679 2.5 145 98,455 68
TOTAL 1,368 3,867 560,715 389
Average Persons Per Parcel = 2.8
gpcd = gallons per capita day
gpd = gallons per day
gpm = gallons per minute
AADF = Annual Average Daily Flowrate
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East of CR951 Utilities Study
Table 6-1
Project Area Preliminary Wastewater Collection System Cost Estimate
Greeley and Hansen LLC
28 3:00 February 2006
Item Description Quantity Unit Unit Price Construction
Cost
1 Mobilization 1 LS $ 1,145,386 $ 1,145,386
2 Maintenance of Traffic 1 LS $ 200,000 $ 200,000
3 Gravity Sewer System Construction
Furnish and Install 8" DR26 PVC Sanitary Sewer
lines in cuts less than 6 feet 52,450 LF $ 75 $ 3,933,750
Furnish and Install 8" DR26 PVC Sanitary Sewer
lines in cuts 6 to 13 feet 72,300 LF $ 100 $ 7,230,000
Precast Concrete Shallow Manholes 164 EA $ 4,000 $ 656,000
Standard Precast Concrete Sanitary Sewer
Manholes for Sewers in cuts 6 to 13 feet 218 EA $ 6,000 $ 1,308,000
4 Forcemain Sewer System Construction
Furnish and Install 6" DR18 PVC Forcemain 84,000 LF $ 45 $ 3,780,000
Furnish and Install 8" DR18 PVC Forcemain 16,500 LF $ 65 $ 1,072,500
Furnish and Install 6" Forcemain Jack-and-Bore
Crossinq 300 LF $ 235 $ 70,500
Furnish and Install 8" Forcemain Jack-and-Bore
Crossing 400 LF $ 260 $ 104,000
Forcemain Interconnection 2 LS $ 10,000 $ 20,000
5 Wastewater Service Connections
Funish and Install 6" DR35 PVC Sanitary Sewer
House Lateral 1,368 EA $ 880 $ 1,203,840
6 Driveway and Roadwav Repairs
Remove and Reoalce Concrete Driveway 8,200 LF $ 42 $ 344,400
Remove and Replace Street Pavement Surface 350,000 SY $ 15 $ 5,250,000
Remove and Replace Street Pavement Base 250,000 SY $ 14 $ 3,375,000
7 Pumping Station Installation
Furnish and Install Pumpinq Stations 37 LS $ 350,000 $ 12,950,000
Furnish and Install Master Pumpinq Stations 4 LS $ 800,000 $ 3,200,000
CONSTRUCTION COSTS: $ 45,843,376
20% CONSTRUCTION CONTINGENCY: $ 9,168,675
TOTAL CONSTRUCTION COST ESTIMATE: $ 55,012,051
15% PLANNING, DESIGN, INSPECTION AND ADMINISTRATION COSTS: $ 8,251,808
ESTIMATED PROPERTY ACQUISITION COSTS: $ 3,000,000
TOTAL COST ESTIMATE: $ 66,264,000
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EAST OF CR 951 UllUTIES STUOY
28 3:00 FEBRUARY 2006
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PROJECT AREA
WASTEWATER COLLECTION SYSTEM
LAYOUT
.MQIE;
ALL PUMPING STATIONS SITES WILL REQUIRE
MINIMUM 100',100' EASEMENTS. ALL MASTER
PUMPING STATION SITES WILL REQUIRE
MINIMUM 200',200' EASEMENTS.
BOD 0
IIIIII1I111
COWER COUNlY PUBUC lJTILlTJES
ENGINEERING DEPARTMENT
EAST OF CR 951 lJTILITIES STUDY
26 3:00 FEBRUARY 2006
BOO
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1 600 FT
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Exhibit D
Industrial Needs Analysis
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Collier 5011 & Water Conservation District
Stan Weiner, Chairman
14700 Immokalee Road
Naples, FL 34120
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August 14, 2008
Mr. William l. McDaniel, Chairman
East of 951 Horizon Study Committee
3301 E Tamiami Trail
Naples, FL 34112
Dear Mr. McDaniel,
Reference is made to the Collier East of CR 951 Services & Infrastructure Horizon Study Preliminary
Report Section 3, Public Utilities, p.18-27.
Your committee heard from county staff, and interested members of the public, addressing a myriad of
issues and concerns that covers 1,210,618 acres of land area in the six distinct districts known as Golden
Gate Estates north ofI-75, the Rural Fringe Mixed Use District, the Rural Lands Stewardship Area, the
Immokalee Urbanized Area, the South Golden Gate Estates Natural Resources Protection Area and
Federal and State Lands. As you write your report and get ready to present final recommendations to the
Board of County Commissioners, Collier 5011 and Water Conservation District Board of Supervisors, by
unanimous vote at our regularly scheduled meeting August 14, 2008, wanted you to be aware of our
thoughts on water quality and water storage requirements and opportunities for county residents.
One vital piece of the water supply puzzle, not discussed in the public utilities sessions, was finding a
place to store excess surface water during the rainy season to be used later, when It is needed. Reservoirs
are one method currently used. However, the county's flat topography and ecologically sensitive canal,
creek and swale systems, etc., pose challenges to the traditional approach of damming rivers to store
water. Off-stream reservoirs, another option, avoid the flooding of these sensitive ecosystems but they
typically have limited storage capacities.
The Board of Supervisors advocates a concept utilizing a series or grouping of Aquifer Storage and
Recovery (ASR) wells to assist/augment a county-wide surface water management plan which, at the
moment, does not exist! Your study might want to address this deficiency in view of existing storm water
treatment, flood protection, water quality treatment and habitat restoration not pOSSible in the Northern
Golden Gate Estates (NGGE) without a retrofit because there were no provisions made for surface water,
storm water and floodplain management, water quality, etc. Thus, the need for a quick review.
ASR is a mechanism for storing water underground through an injection well to be withdrawn in the
future, through the same well, for beneficial purposes. Typically, water Is stored during times of excess
supply for use when supplies are limited. ASR wells are capable of storing treated drinking water as well
as treated or raw surface or groundwater. However, whether treated or not, water injected into ASR wells
must meet Florida's drinking water quality standards. The level of treatment required after storage
depends on the use of the water, whether for public consumption, surface water augmentation, wetlands
enhancement, irrigation, saltwater intrusion barrier, etc. Because ASR wells proVide for the storage of
water that would otherwise be lost to Naples Bay or the Gulf of Mexico or evaporation, it represents a
crucial water supply management strategy for Collier County's future. See the notional ASR system we
have attached for public Information.
Stanley Weiner
Supervisor, Seat 2
Dennis Vasey
Supervisor, Seat 3
Michael Slmonik
Supervisor, Seat 4
James Lang
Supervisor, Seat 5
Phone: (239) 455-4100
Web Site: http://www.colllel.$wcd.org/
Facsimile: (239) 455-2693
To provide a reason why it is critical to evaluate surface water, storm water, floodplain management,
water quality, etc., just look at past land modifications: the construction of Interstate 75 (1-75), a.k.a.
Alligator Alley, County Road CR-846 (Immokalee Road), construction of major canal systems resulting in
diversions of historical watersheds and drawdown of the surficial water table-that's the water source
residents want protected so their wells don't go dry-and alternations of the county watersheds during
construction of NGGE. Combined, they reduced approximately 2,386 acres of wetlands as compared to
historic jurisdictional limits noted in the Horsepen Strand Conservation Area (HSCA) Phase 1 study.
The construction of 1-75 has created a barrier "dam effect" for the southern portion of the HSCA. In these
locations, wetlands have actually expanded from their historic limits, but have also been impacted in
several locations from historic and ongoing agricultural practices. Phase I of the HSCA study provided
insight for potential flood protection, i.e., habitat restoration and water quality enhancement. The
degradation, due to ditching and piping, of the northern wetland areas can be overcome through
rehydration; however, that could imply that areas planned for residential or commercial construction may
be considerably less when restoration or surface water storage are properly considered.
Marco Island has a good example of an evolving ASR program. They are currently utilizing seven ASR
wells resupplied by surface water from Henderson Creek Canal and their pits on CR 951 north of US 41. It
is apparent from Marco Island's experience that ASR wells could be an important component in a county-
wide surface water management system to redistribute storm water, improve storm water management
retention/detention, be a component in a county-wide surface water/storm water/water supply system or
used to create a multi-use surface water management system that could:
· Provide a storm water drainage system with greater volume capacity
· Provide a method to spread-out excess storm water over a larger area to decrease flooding
· Enable a county-wide "raw water" distribution system to areas in addition to Marco Island.
Properly done, your East of CR 951 report could reinforce the need for a '-oun~-wide SUrfa~~(~w
anagement stem' stress the imDortance of ASR wells, and J:equire t e inteQratio a
retention I n components with the Big Cypress Basin canal system, etc.
The Collier Soil and Water Conservation District Board of Supervisors advocate the concept of a county-
wide surface water management plan to:
· Decrease storm water discharge into the Gulf of Mexico and
· Reduce flooding in subdivisions with no surface water management systems.
· Further, we believe that the general benefits of ASR wells are:
o Ability to conduct long-term storage and recover this stored water during droughts, presumably
when reservoir levels would be low
o Not subjected to evapotranspiration and seepage losses
o limited land requirement (one or two acre per well) resulting in significant cost savings
compared to reservoirs
o Can generally be located in areas of greatest water availability and/or need.
A county-wide capability to manage storm water more efficiently, with little to none going to the Gulf of
Mexico and Naples Bay, is a solution that could ensure that the cities of Ave Maria and Big Cypress have
water, during drought periods, without requiring special permits to take water out of the surficial aqUifers.
We hope that your committee will join us in advocating a county-wide surface water management plan
that could augment watershed management plan development that should begin in 2009 and in promoting
ASRs as a source of raw water supply.
Stanley Weiner
Supervisor, Seat 2
Dennis Vasey
Supervisor, Seat 3
Michael Slmonlk
Supervisor, Seat 4
James Lang
Supervisor, Seat 5
Phone: (:239) 455-4100
Web Site: http://www.colllerswcd.org/
Facsimile: (:239) 455-:2693
There are three types of water used for ASR: potable water, reclaimed water and partially treated surface
water. The permitting requirements depend on the quality of the water source and the quality of the water
in the aquifer. An ASR system that stores potable water is fairly straightforward to develop since the water
meets all the drinking water standards. Attention should still be given to the water quality resulting from
the interaction between the injected water and the aquifer.
There are several ASR systems that currently Inject excess potable water. These systems usually have an
excess capacity ranging between 2 to 12 million gallons per day (mgd) during the wet season. The excess
water is available during this period because irrigation use is low due to the wet conditions. The height of
the dry season normally occurs over a gO-day period between the months of March and May.
Permitting requires reclaimed water ASR projects to be located where the natural aquifer water quality is
salty and unfavorable for potable use. Reclaimed water generally consists of water from advanced
secondary wastewater treatment facilities. The treatment process is sufficient to produce water that meets
all the primary drinking water standards but may have a few secondary water quality parameters that are
exceeded. The secondary list includes nuisance parameters, such as odor and color.
Use of reclaimed water for irrigation is a common practice, yet even with this use, it is common for a
wastewater facility to dispose of up to 12 mgd of quality water during the wet season when demand for
irrigation water Is low. The ability to store this water in an ASR system for later use would provide a
significant benefit to county residents on well systems. Partially treated surface water is a new type of
ASR that is in the early stages of study. Partially treated systems would divert and store a small fraction
(typically 10% or less above a certain minimum flow) of surface or canal flow during the wet season. This
water would most likely undergo filtration to remove particulate matter that may clog the well.
Without further treatment the water may still contain low concentrations of microorganisms such as
coliform, giardia and cryptosporidium that can be present in surface water bodies at times. Under current
rules and regulations, microorganisms such as these would have to be treated prior to injection. However,
the raw water quantities available during the wet season would exceed the remaining treatment capacity
of virtually any existing potable water treatment system dictating that additional treatment capacity be
constructed and that expense must be planned for before permitting. There is, however, some existing
information that suggests these microorganisms may die off naturally in the aquifer during the storage
period, either way, water needs to be retaIned for very long periods of time and considerations, in addition
to the polyvinyl chloride pipe option presented during the public utilities presentation.
The Collier Soil and Water Conservation District Board of Supervisors support incorporation of raw water
ASR wells on all public property-including school properties-would lower ASR well costs and because of
location would effectively support a county-wide distribution node of significant public value and presnt a
cost effective water storage opportunity for county residents.
BY DIRECTION:
~ ,,/2 .
" ; 1//i~ /./:ttf {f['U
Kim Bucceri
Administrator
Attachment:
a/s
Stanley Weiner
Supervisor, Seat 2
Dennis Vasey
Supervisor, Seat 3
Michael Slmonlk
Supervisor, Seat 4
James Lang
Supervisor, Seat 5
Phone: (239) 455~4100
Web Site: http://www.colllerswcd.org/
Facsimile: (239) 455-2693
Aquifer Storage & Recovery-Notional
Aquifer Storage and Recovery (ASR) is a water-storage technology gaining acceptance by
water-resource planners and scientists worldwide. Essentially, ASR involves storage of
available water through wells completed into aquifers, with subsequent retrieval from these
same wells during dry periods. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers plan for Everglades
Restoration known as the Central and Southern Florida Project Comprehensive Review
Study (Restudy) relies heavily on ASR technology. In fact, the Restudy assumes over 1.6
billion gallons per day of water stored via ASR wells. As you can see by the magnitude of
this number, the scale of ASR proposed in the Restudy is unprecedented. Recovery of water
stored in ASR wells could provide great benefits to environmental, agricultural, and urban
users. The following graphics are intended to acquaint the reader with the ASR technology,
present the uncertainties of ASR implementation at this scale, and outline a plan to address
these uncertainties.
Many challenges face water-resource planners and scientists with respect to the ASR
technology as proposed in the Restudy. A phased approach to ASR implementation is
proposed to address technical and regulatory concerns. A wide variety of hydrogeOlogic,
hydrologic and hydrochemical questions must be resolved prior to development of a truly
regional ASR infrastructure. It is clear that the proposed ASR pilot facilities -- and the
science necessary to evaluate the data from these facilities -- will be crucial to evaluate the
feasibility and effectiveness of ASR as a regional water-storage option.
What is AqUifer Storage & Recovery?
ASR may be defined as the storage of freshwater in a brackish-water aqUifer through wells
during wet periods for subsequent retrieval from these same wells during dry periods. The
freshwater fOnTIS a bubble within the aquifer around the ASR well, and can be retrieved
when needed.
The Major Advantages of ASR include:
· Minimal Land requirements (an acre or two per well)
· Almost no evaporation or seepage losses (mixing losses instead)
· Proven technology (up to 95% recovery)
· significantly lower costs per gallon of water stored.
Other major components of an ASR system:
· A Suitable Source of Water-- The Critical Component of an ASR System
· Two main sources of water for ASR are:
o surface water, and
o ground water.
· In the Restudy 1 the focus is on USing surface water that is currently discharged to
Naples Bay or Gulf of Mexico during the wet season. Collected water may need to be
treated to meet state and federal standards for underground injection.
2008 Public Information Prepared By Collier Soil and Water Conservation Distrlct.
ASR Wells Tap a Shallower Zone in the
Floridan Aquifer Than Deep Injection Wells
HlJWthlllr cmflrtif!l
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Water quality as fresh as possible to minimize mixing
ASR Physical Facilities
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This includes the ASR wells, pumps, piping, valves, electrical equipment and instrumentation.
The aqUifer system in Collier County, Florida contains suitable storage zones, making ASR a
viable storage mechanism.
2008 Public Information Prepared By Collier Soli and Water Conservation District.
What are the principal uncertainties of ASR & how will these be addressed?
.....-.1..1 1
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· Compatibility of the
injected water with the
aquifer water
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of injected water on the
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how much usable water
will be recovered
· The effects of the
recovered water on the
environment
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Electronic probes are lowered into drilled
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properties with depth. ASR storage zones
and confining units can be identified with
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2008 Public Information Prepared By Collier Soil and Water Conservation District.
Groundwater Modeling
',;Ji\lWr:,
Groundwater modeling will be used to
optimize the location and spacing of
ASR wells to minimize excessive
water level drawdowns or pressure
build up. In addition, modeling can be
used to estimate the movement of
injected water within the aquifer
system and thus predict the amount
and quality of recoverable water.
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Detailed water quality analyses of the water to be stored (source water) and the native (brackish) water
must be performed to identify and quantify constituents of concern. Geochemical modeling may then be
conducted to determine if adverse chemical reactions might occur, such as reactions that might cause
plugging of the ASR storage zone.
2008 Public Information Prepared By Collier Soli and Water Conservation District.
.;
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www.nmssfls.org
rJ it.?
National
Multiple Sclerosis
Society
South Florida
Chapter
F,C Sf X 964'
'df
drsparks.lunney@gmall.com
August 18, 2008
WIlliam McDaniel, Chairman
Collier County East of 951 Infrastructure and Services Horizon Study Public Participation Master Plan
Committee
Enclosed please find a white paper entitled: Health risks associated with the Collier County Transportation
Planning Department proposal to construct twelve bridges In the Golden Gate Estates sub-dMsion
The enclosed paper is Intended to provide the Horizon Committee, and ultimately the Board of Collier County
Commissioners, with a clear and cogent discussion of the health risks associated with the CCTPD proposal
to construct twelve bridges in the Golden Gate Estates sub-dlvlsion. In accordance with the Americans WIth
Disabilities Act the Committee is asked to provide reasonable accommodation of people with multiple
sclerosis and others In the disability community by attaching this paper to the final report the committee
forwards to the Board of Collier County Commissioners.
Very truly yours,
1//---;--'
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" /' I //' ,/"
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Cc: Linda Hartman, Vice Chair, David Farmer, Thomas R. Jones, Krls Van Lengen,
Kenneth Lynch, Timothy Nance, Stephen Price, Russel Priddy. Michael Ramsey.
Douglas Rankin, Richard Rice, Christian Spilker, Mark Teaters, Clarence Tears,
James N. Coletta, Commissioner, District 5
Health risks associated with the Collier County
Transportation Planning Department proposal to
construct twelve bridges in the Golden Gate
Estates sub-division
Dr. Sparks Lunney,
Director for Southwest Florida Operations
South Florida Chapter
National Multiple Sclerosis Society
OVERVIEW
At a public meeting held by the Collier County of Transportation Planning
Deparbnent on July 1st, 2008 a proposal was presented to construct a total
of twelve bridges in the Golden Gate Estates sub-division.
This sub-division is almost exclusively residential. Currently, residents of
the sub-division account for much of the vehicular traffic. Due to its many
unbridged canals, the sub-divlsion is largely unattractive for thru-traffic.
The proposed bridging of twelve canals would create a grid which would
allow, if not indeed, encourage thru-traffic. Current use of the roadways in
Golden Gate Estates consists largely of Estates residents going to and
from their homes to reach major arteries such as Immokalee Road, Randall
Boulevard, Everglades Boulevard, Wilson Boulevard and Golden Gate
Boulevard.
The CCTPD plan would bring thru-traffic to the residential heart of the
Estates. Residents would face increased levels of nitrogen oxide (NOx)
from tailpipes. Ground Level Ozone, which results when tailpipe emissions
react with oxygen and sunlight, would also increase. The diesel vehicles
which will be speeding by are also a major source of particulate pollution.1
The introduction of daily thru-traffic into the residential heart of the Estates
invariably will result in degradation of air quality by concentrating these
emissions In this almost exclusively residential area. As traffic volume
increases, thru-traffic will back up at major intersections with signals.
1 Natural Resources Defense Council http://www.nrdc.ora/health/effects/fasthma.asp
Traffic will also back up on the huge number of dead end streets in the
Estates as vehicles await a break in the flow of thru-traffic.
REVIEW OF EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE
There is a large body of empirical evidence which clearly shows there are
significant health risks associated with degradation of air quality. 2 In this
paper, the focus will be three specific populations at risk: persons with
multiple sclerosis, persons under age 18, and persons 65 and over. A
Population At Risk is a sub-group of a given population which has an
increased likelihood of a disease or other health issue.
Persons with MS have known health risks associated with degraded air
quality. A 2003 study in the journal Neuro-Epidemiologyassessed the
relationship between air quality and monthly MS relapse occurrence and
found that the odds ratio of the risk of a relapse onset was over fourfold
when the concentration of inhalable particulate matter (PM10) was at the
highest quartile. ,,3 MS is a progressive neurodegenerative disease. A
2004 report in Protective Strategies for Neurodegenerative Diseases noted
that environmental factors can trigger inflammatory events in the central
nervous system leading to increased neurodegeneration.4
2 The survey of research for this paper was provided by The Association for the
Advancement of Applied Psychoneuro/mmunology. (AAAPNI).
htto://www./ifecoachusa.com/aaaon;
Founded in 2002, the organization has members in the US and Canada, Europe, Asia,
Australia and South America. http://lifecoachusa.com/aaapnicurrentmembers
Eignt AAAPNI members in the United States have provided educational workshops for
people with MS on PNI and chronic health management for the S. Florida Chapter of the
National Multiple Sclerosis Society. AAAPNI has also provided research summaries and
position papers on Issues related to MS to elected and appointed government officials and
members of the health care professions. AAAPNI is a listed as a health psychology
resource by the American Psychological Association http://www.health-
Psvch.ora/resources.DhD
3 Neuro-Epldemlology, V22 No 1 2003 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.aov/pubmed/12566960
" Protective Strategies for Neurodegeneratlve Diseases, Volume 1035 published
December 2004
Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sel. 1035: 117-132 (2004). dol: 10.1196/annals.1332.008
http://www.annalsnvas.ora/cai/contentlabstractl1035/1/117
Not only people with multiple sclerosis will be at risk. Persons under 18
and persons 65 and older are also a population at risk. In 2006, the U.S.
Census Bureau reported a demographic profile for Collier County such that
persons under 18 were 20.4% of the population and persons 65 and older
24.2%.5 The demographic breakdown for the Estates may differ somewhat,
but assuming these data are reasonably representative, these two age
groups would as account for nearly half the population in the Estates.
Although it is not realized by many, children as young as two are
diagnosed with multiple sclerosis. 6 Current estimates are that 8,000 to
10,000 American children have MS. 7 A large body of research shows
degraded air quality results in significant health risks for persons under 18.
Asthma is the most common chronic disease in thisd age group. Degraded
air quality has been linked to many risks associated with asthma. Children
who carried variations in two genes and lived within 75 meters (approx 250
feet) of a major road were up to nine times more likely to develop asthma
than children who lived further away. 8 Major findings concerning asthma
and persons under 18 include: (1) air Pollution increases the number of
children who develop asthma, (2) air pollution increases flare-ups among
those who have asthma, and (3) air pollution harms children's lungs for
l;fe.9 10 11 121314
5 Collier County QulckFacts, U.S. Census Bureau
http://Quickfacts.census.aov/Qfd/states/12/12021.html
6 Just the Facts - 2006-2007, National Multiple Sclerosis Society
http://www.nationalmssocietv .ora/down load .aspx?id=22
7 Pediatric Information For Health Professionals, National Multiple Sclerosis Society,
http://www.nationalmssocietv .org/for-professionals/hea Ithcare-professionals/pediatric-
ms/index.aspx
8 "Microsomal Epoxlde Hydrolase, Glutathione S-transferase Pi, Traffic and Childhood
Asthma." Thorax, 2007; doi: 10.1136/thx.2007.080127.
http://www.sciencedailv.com/releases/2007/08/070820194635.htm
9 The Effect of Air Pollution on Lung Development from 10 to 18 Years of Age, N Engl J
Med, 2004; 351:1057 - 1067 http://content.neim.ora/cai/contentlshort/351/11/1057
10 Association between Air Pollution and Lung Function Growth In Southern California
Children, American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, Vol 166. pp. 76-84,
(2002) http://airccm.atsiournals.ora/cai/contentlfull/166/1/76
Persons 65 and older are a population which has a number of health risks
associated with degraded air quality. Persons age 65 and over have a
significantly higher likelihood of having heart disease compared to those
age 18 to 64 (31.1% vs. 6.2%). 15 In its 2004 statement for healthcare
professionals, the Expert Panel on Population and Prevention Science of
the American Heart Association advises air pollutants are associated with
increased hospitalization and mortality from cardiovascular disease. 16 The
American lung Association notes nearly 90 percent of deaths due to
influenza or pneumonia occur in people age 65 and over. 17 Hospital
admissions and deaths from pneumonia, COPO and other res~iratory
diseases are all associated with air quality degradation. 18 19 2 For at least a
11 Respiratory Effects of Relocating to Areas of Differing Air Pollution Levels, Am. J.
Resplr. Crlt Care Med., Volume 164, Number 11, December 2001,2067-2072
http://airccm.atsiournals.ora/cai/contentlfull/164/11/2067
12 The Effects of Ambient Air Pollution on School Absenteeism Due to Respiratory
Illnesses, Epidemiology, Volume 12(1)January 2001 pp 43-54,
http://www.epidem.com/ptlre/epidemioloav/fulltext.00001648-2001 01 000-
00009.htm:isessionid=LPGTX2CcpFG131 FJkSQ4zv11 W1 QVY271 rzsKdpwOSipXZYOQmv2W
!982088527!181195629!8091 !-1
13 The Children's Health Study, California Environmental Protection Agency
http://www.arb.ca.aov/research/chs/over.htm
14 Trafflc-Related Air Pollution and Asthma Onset In Children: A Prospective Cohort Study
with Individual Exposure Measurement, National Institute for Environmental Health
Sciences (NIH), June 2008 http://www.ehponline.ora/members/2008/10968/10968.pdf
15 Statistical Brief #5: Medical Care and Treatment for Chronic Conditions, 2000, Agency
for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ),
http://www.meps.ahcpr .aov/mepsweb/ldata files/publications/st5/stat05.pdf
16 Air Pollution and Cardiovascular Disease Circulation. 2004;109:2655-2671.
http://circ.ahaiournals.ora/cQi/contentlfull/1 09/21/2655
17 Lung Disease Data at a Glance: Influenza and Pneumonia, American Lung Association
http://www./unausa.ora/site/pp.asP7c=90/CLOOxGrF&b=1542727
18 The Effect of Ozone and PM10 on Hospital Admissions for Pneumonia and Chronic
Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: A National Multlclty Study, American Journal of
Epidemiology, 10.1093
http://www . ncbi.nlm.nih.Qov/pubmed/16443803 ?ordinalpos=1 &itool=EntrezSvstem2. PEntre
z.Pubmed.Pubmed ResultsPanel.Pubmed DiscoveryPanel.Pubmed Discovery RA&linkp
os=1 &loa$=relatedarticles&load bfrom=pubmed
decade and a half, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) have identified air
pollution as placing persons 65 and over at increased risk of morbidity and
mortality from a broad spectrum of diseases.21
Persons 65 and older are an especially at-risk population due to co-
morbidity (having two or more diseases at the same time). ~proximately
two-thirds of persons over 65 have co-morbid conditions. 22
Co-morbidity is a central issue in the management of chronic disease.
Health outcomes are poorer for persons with anyone chronic illness if they
fall victim to a second disease process. This is why management of
chronic disease includes a focus on wellness and avoiding circumstances
which increase the likelihood of co-morbidity. The leading cause of death
for people with multiple sclerosis is pneumonia. Simply put, they are
unable to survive both the neurodegenerative effects of multiple sclerosis
and the effects of pneumonia at the same time. The insult to the integrity
of the body's organs and systems is too great. 24 The impact of co-
morbidity is not confined to persons with multiple sclerosis. Typically, the
degree of morbidity, disability and mortality which results when a person
has co-morbid health conditions is greater than the sum of the expected
19 Air Pollution and Hospital Admissions for the Elderly in Binningham, Alabama American
Journal of Epidemiology Vol. 139, No.6: 589-5981994
htto://aie.oxfordiournals.ora/ca i/content/abstract/139/6/589
20 Air pOllution and emergency admissions in Boston, MA, Journal of Epidemiology and
Community Health 2006;60:890-895 htto:/Iiech.bmi.com/cai/content/abstract/60/10/890
21 Populations at Risk from Particulate Air Pollution, Morbidity and Mortality Weekly
Report, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention April 29, 1994/43(16);290-293
htto ://www.cdc.aov/mmwr/oreview/mmwrhtml/00030615.htm
22 Chronic Illness with Complexity: Care of Individuals with Chronic Physical and Mental
Illness UMDNJ Research Bulletin, Fall, 2007
htto :/Iwww.umdni.edu/research/oublications/faIl07/6.htm
23 Multiple Chronic Conditions: Prevalence, Health Consequences, and Implications for
Quality, Care Management, and Costs J Gen Intern Med. 2007 December; 22(SuppI3): 391-
395.
htto :/Iwww.oubmedcentral.nih.aov/articlerender. fca i?artid=2150598
24 Autoimmune Dlsease/Neuroblology Audio Digest Psychiatry Volume 33, Issue 24,
December 21 at 2004
morbidity, disability and mortality which the two or more disease
processes may be expected to cause separately. 26
RESPONSES
The plethora of empirical evidence in the scientific literature noted above
imposes a due diligence burden on Collier County Government to consider
the health impact of the CCTPD proposal to bridge twelve canals in the
Golden Gate Estates sub-division. Certainly, a study of the public health
impact of thru-traffic and the concomitant impact on air quality should be
completed prior to the construction of any of these 12 proposed bridges.
To avoid the appearance of conflict of interest, this study should not be
conducted by any Collier County agency, department or division. One
objection which has been raised to an independent study Is that it would be
an additional burden for tax payers. This need not be the case. I am
confident that our area health care organizations such as NCH Healthcare
System, Lee Memorial Health System, Physician's Regional Medical
Center/HMA have on their staff persons with proper expertise who would
participate in conducting such a study pro bono. This I believe would be
equally true for the academic institutions of S.W. Florida such as Florida
Gulf Coast University, Edison State College, Ave Maria University and
Hodges University. Finally, I am certain that the National Multiple Sclerosis
Society as well as many other voluntary health organizations such as the
American Heart Association, American Lung Association, and American
Cancer Society would, if asked, participate pro bono in assisting in
conducting such a study.
The study's findings could be that the implementation of the current
CCTPD plan would not cause significant air quality degradation. At that
juncture, the CCTPD plan can be implemented with the knowledge that the
due diligence burden of considering the public health impact had been
properly addressed.
Conversely, the study's findings could be that the implementation of the
current CCTPD plan would cause significant air quality degradation. If that
were the case, the CCTPD plan should not be implemented. Moving ahead
25 Association of co-morbldlty with disability in older women: the Women's Health and
Aging Study, J. Clinical Epidemiology, 1999 Jan;52(1):27-37.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.Qov/pubmed/9973071
in the face of these results would be unethical. Additionally, depending on
wind conditions, air pollution generated in the Estates may well impact the
air quali~ of the coastal areas of Collier County as well as parts of Lee
County. 6 This could result in litigation which may place a substantial
burden on Collier County taxpayers. Also, although difficult to estimate,
the health case costs associated with air quality degradation would impose
additional economic burdens on taxpayers.
Modification of the CCTPD plan would be necessary. At the July 16th, 2008
meeting of the Home Owners Association of Golden Gate Estates, Dr. Jeff
Stivers suggested that bridges be constructed as single-lane bridges with
first responder access and emergency evacuation use only. 27 One
objection to this is that a single-lane bridge is nearly as costly to build as a
two-lane bridge. An alternative to Dr. Stivers' suggestion might be to build
two lane bridges but to chain off one lane and use the remaining lane for
first responder access and emergency evacuation use only.
It is not the purpose of this paper to explore the universe of modifications
to the current CCTPD plan which might be workable. This paper serves
only to communicate that there is a significant risk that the CCTPD plan, if
implemented without modification, may result in increased morbidity and
mortality among residents of Golden Gate Estates.
In his 7/22/2008 e-mail to the'members of the Committee my friend and
colleague Dr. Don Williams said in part; liAs the Co-Director of The
Association for the Advancement of Psychoneuroimmunology I am
naturally aware that the decisions made regarding the development of our
communities need to be sensitive to the needs of our most vulnerable
citizens, e.g. seniors, the chronically ill and the vety young. I hope and
trust that the Horizon Committee will take evety opportunity to become
fully informed regarding health issues as the response to the bridge
proposal is made. "
People with multiple sclerosis and their caregivers have to struggle daily
with things other people never have to think about Something as simple
as a set of stairs can present a nearly impossible challenge. They live with
a disease which has no cure. Like their fellows with other chronic
26 Generallsed additive modelling of air pollution,
traffic volume and meteorology, Magne Aldrin and Ingrid Hobmk Haft,
Norwegian Computing Center,
P.O.Box 114 Bllndem, N-0314, Oslo, Norway
http://www.Juftkvalitet.info/Files/reports! generalised additive modelling.pdf
27 Minutes. Homeowners Association of Golden Gate Estates, General Membership
Meeting, July 16, 2008
illnesses, their quality of life, and in some circumstances even their
survival, requires the broader community to be sensitive to their needs.
This paper is being provided to you as you are the Advisory Committee
charged lito assist the Board in facilitating the public participation
component of Phase Two of the East of County Road 961 Infrastructure
and Services Horizon Study." The paper is intended to provide the Horizon
Committee, and ultimately the Board of Collier County Commissioners,
with a clear and cogent discussion of the health risks associated with the
CCTPD proposal to construct twelve bridges in the Golden Gate Estates
sub-division. In accordance with the Americans With Disabilities Act 28 the
Committee is asked to provide reasonable accommodation of people with
multiple sclerosis and others in the disability community by attaching this
paper to the final report the committee forwards to the Board of Collier
County Commissioners.
28 Americans With Disabilities Act of 1990 f'ADA"]. as amended, TITLE 42 - THE PUBLIC
HEALTH AND WELFARE. CHAPTER 126 - EQUAL OPPORTUNITY FOR INDIVIDUALS WITH
DISABILITIES, Sec. 12101 Findings and purpose (8)
COLLIER COUNTY WANTS YOUR OPINION
Please complete this survey and return in the enclosed stamped reply envelope by May 30, 2008.
Collier County needs your opinion on things important to you, your family and your neighborhood.
We need to know what you think in order for county government to provide our residents with the facilities,
services, and programs they desire. A volunteer committee of local residents has helped in developing this
survey questionnaire. We have engaged the Naples research firm of Fraser & Mohlke Associates to
conduct the survey.
Please help us by completing this questionnaire! Your answers to survey questions will help
us make accurate assessments of the current and future needs of our residents. We ask that you give
serious consideration to each question and provide us with your opinion. Please answer them as best you
can. Thank you for helping us to understand the opinions of our residents.
A. DRIVING ON COUNTY ROADS
1. Please tell us about how you got from your home to where you work and shop during the last 30 days:
(Check all the boxes below that apply to you):
When I drive to work or to go shopping, I drive my own car or truck.
When I ride to work or to shop, I am driven there by a family member, a friend or neighbor,
or someone I work with.
When I travel to work, I ride a bus and walk to and from bus stops.
I ride my bike to go to work or to shop.
I walk when I to go to work or to shop.
I don't drive.
2. On a scale of 1 to 10, with "10" the most important, please rate how important each of the following things are to
you when riding to where you work or for shopping (For each statement, circle one number from "I" TO "10"):
NOT IMPORTANT IMPORTANT
· Traffic signals at m~or intersections. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
· Street lighting along the roads I travel regularly. 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
· Right and left turn lanes at 1JU\i0r road intersections. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
· Bicycle and pedestrian lanes on roads near my home. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
· Adding lanes to improve area road capacity. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
. Landscaped medians. 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
. Street lighting near schools, libraries and parks. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
. Bicycle and pedestrian lanes on major roads. 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 .9 10
· Public bus transportation. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
B. WATER & SEWER
1. Please check all the boxes that apply to you:
A well on my property provides drinking water for my home.
A septic tank on my property handles sewage disposal from my home.
I live in a development that provides water and sewer service to residents.
I receive water and sewer services from a special district located near my home.
I receive w,ater and sewer services from the Collier County Utilities Department.
I pay a fee for water and sewer services to my home.
I don't know who provides water and sewer services to my home.
2. On a scale of 1 to 10, how important to you are each of the following? (For each statement, circle one number
from "1" TO "10"):
NOT IMPORTANT
IMPORTANT
· A new potable water system is desirable in order to provide
good quality drinking water to residents living east of
County Road 951/Collier Boulevard.
· A new wastewater treatment system is desirable to provide a
safe and sanitary method for collecting and treating sewage
created east of County Road 95I/Collier Boulevard.
2
3
4
5
6 7
8
9
10
2
3
4
5
6 7
8
9
10
C. COUNTY PARKS
1. Please check all the boxes that apply to you:
During the past 12 months, someone in my family has used the recreation facilities available at
one or more County parks.
A County park is located no more than 5 miles from my home.
2. On a scale of 1 to 10, please tell us how important to you are each of the following? (For each statement, circle
one number from "I" TO "10"): NOT IMPORTANT IMPORTANT
· County park facilities should provide good quality recreation
and adequate facilities for my use and my family's use. 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
· Collier County's public park facilities that are near my home will
meet my family's recreation needs for at least the next 10 years. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
· New County parks are needed to provide additional recreational
opportunities for you and your family and others living east of
County Road 95 l/Collier Boulevard. 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
D. COUNTY LIBRARIES
1. Please check the boxes that apply to you or your family:
During the past year, someone in my family has visited a County library.
A County library is located no more than 5 miles from my home.
2. On a scale of 1 to 10, how important to you are each of the following in providing public library facilities for
residents living east of County Road 951? NOT IMPORTANT IMPORTANT
. Libraries that are located convenient to the
neighborhood I live in. 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
. Collier County's public libraries near my home will meet
my family's needs for at least the next 10 years. 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
. New public libraries are needed to serve the needs of my
family and the other residents living east of County Road 951. 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
E. PUBLIC SCHOOLS
1. Please check the boxes that apply to you or your family:
Someone in my family has visited a Collier County public school for a community meeting or
some type of recreational activity during the past year.
Someone in my family has attended a Collier County public school for at least one year since I
have been a resident of Collier County.
2. On a scale of 1 to 10, how important to you are each of the following in providing public school facilities for
residents living east of County Road 951 ?
· Schools that are located convenient to the NOT IMPORTANT IMPORTANT
neighborhood I live in. 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
. Use of school locations to support community
activities & events. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
. Providing bike paths and sidewalks close to
school locations. 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Thank you for helping us to understand the opinions of our residents on transportation, drinking water and wastewater,
and county parks and libraries. The two questions that follow are about emergency medical services and law enforce-
ment. We want to know how you rate the performance of these important agencies using the same scale of 1 to 10.
F. EMERGENCY MEDICAL SERVICES (EMS)
1. Please tell us about your past experience with EMS. (Please check only the box that applies to you):
I have called Collier EMS to respond to a medical emergency.
I have never called for help from EMS since I have been a County resident. (go to the next question G)
2. On a scale of 1 to 10, please tell us how you would rate the overall performance of EMS in respect to the
following activities: (For each statement, circle one number from "I" TO "10"):
POOR
· EMS responds quickly and effectively when called for service. 1 2 3
4
5
EXCELLENT
6 7 8 9 10
· EMS provides high quality medical treatment to injured persons. 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
G. LAW ENFORCEMENT
On a scale of 1 to 10, please rate the overall performance of the Collier County Sheriff's Office for:
POOR EXCELLENT
· Responding to calls for service in your neighborhood. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
· Investigating suspicious activity in your neighborhood.
1
2
3
4
5
6 7
8
9
10
H. FIRE CONTROL & RESCUE SERVICES
1. Please tell us about your past experience with your local fire department:
I have called for help from a local Fire District because of an emergency situation.
I have ~ called for help from any Fire District since I have been a County resident
2. On a scale of 1 to 10, how important to you are each of the following in providing fire and rescue services for
residents living east of County Road 951 ? (For each statement, circle one number from "I" TO "10"):
NOT IMPORTANT
IMPORTANT
· Locating a Fire Station with other emergency agencies like
EMS and a Sheriff substation is desirable to lessen the overall
cost of operating these services.
· Bridging over canals and linking dead-end roads near where
I live are needed to improve emergency response times for
fire districts, EMS, and law enforcement. 1
2
3
4
5
6 7
8
9
10
2
3
4
5
6 7
8
9
10
L FLOOD CONTROL
1. Check all the boxes below that apply to you:
I have had flooding on my property during the past five years.
Flood waters have entered my home within the past five years.
Flooding makes driving on the streets near where I live very difficult.
Flooding on my property has obstructed my sewage septic system.
Flooding on my property has caused problems for my water well system.
I don't have serious flooding problems on my property.
2. On a scale of "1" to "10", with "10" the most important, please rate how important each of the following things
are to you regarding local flooding and its impact on the roads you use to drive to work or to shop (For each
statement, circle one number from "I" TO "10"):
· Widening drainage ditches on my property
to control flooding.
NOT IMPORTANT
2
3
4
4
5
6
6
7
7
IMPORTANT
8 9 10
· Reducing flooding along the roads I drive on regularly.
2
3
5
8
9
10
· Installing new drainage culverts at road intersections
near my property. 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
3. Please tell us more about the roads you travel on to go to work and to shop (For each road, check only the
one box that applies to you):
EastlWest Roads
Check below how often you drive on these roads
Any Day
Every Day Monday-Friday Never
North/South Roads
Check below how often you drive on these roads
Any Day
Every Day Monday-Friday Never
Collier Boulevardl951
Wilson Boulevard
Everglades Boulevard
Desoto Boulevard
Immokalee Road
Oil Well Road
Randall Boulevard
Golden Gate Blvd.
Thank you for sharing your opinions on the facilities, services, and programs provided by county government. Your
answers to survey questions will help us make accurate assessments of the current and future needs of our residents. In
June, we will send you a follow up questionnaire. It will ask you questions about specific facilities, services, and
programs that are important to you. Please complete it and return it. We appreciate all you and your family do to make
Collier County a good place to live.
OPTIONAL
Last Name:
First Name:
Phone:
Are you: 0 Male 0 Female
Do you live in a: 0 Single-family home 0 Condominium 0 Rental apartment 0 Mobile Home
How long have you lived at your present address? When did you move to this address?
o Between 2006 and 2008 0 Between 1996 and 2000 0 Between 1986 and 1990
o Between 2001 and 2005 0 Between 1991 and 1995 0 Before 1986
Would you please tell us which age category applies to you?
065 years or older 045 to 54 years 025 to 34 years
055 to 64 years 035 to 44 years 024 years or younger
Including yourself, how many living at home with you are over 18 years of age?
DOne 0 Two 0 Three 0 Four or more
Of those now living with you, how many are Jess than 18 years of age?
DNone 0 One 0 Two 0 Three 0 Four or more