Agenda 06/10/2008 Item #10B
Agenda Item NO.1 OB
June 10, 2008
Page 1 of 71
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Recommendation to provide the Board of County Commissioners (BCC) a summary of
Collier County Productivity Committee (PC) and Collier County Planning Commission
(CCPC) review of the Seasonal Population Study conducted on the April 16 and Aprill7,
2008, respectively. The Seasonal Population Study was directed by the BCC at their
November 5, 2007 workshop for components of the Annual Update and Inventory Report
(AUIR) on Public Facilities as provided for in Chapter 6.02.02 of the Collier County Land
Development Code.
OBJECTIVE:
Provide the BCC a synopsis of the CCPC and PC review of the BCC directed Seasonal
Population Study on public facilities/services and to seek guidance for the preparation of the
2008 AUIR. The Seasonal Population Study staff report compiled for the PC and CCPC review
has been attached as Exhibit "A" of this executive summary.
CONSIDERATIONS:
On November 5, 2007, the Board of County Commissioners (BCC) held a workshop pertaining
to the 2007 AUIR. During the meeting, the BCC directed staff to examine the affect of the
seasonal population on the various components of the AUIR. Page 37 of the minutes from the
November 5, 2007, BCC AUIR workshop provides the specific direction provided by the Board,
.~,
COMMISSIONR COYLE: "I would ask that somebody take on a special study soon so that we
can - - we can go ahead and pass this A VIR with our recommendations and modification as they
come up today, but immediately after that, I think we need to start an action program to
specifically address how we apply the population figures and the peak population figures to
specific government facilities. Because it's clear that government facilities are impacted
differently."
MR. COHEN: "Commissioner, i{that 's your direction and the rest of the board's direction, we'll
do that starting immediately after this A VIR.
The reasoning behind the request, as expressed above by Commissioner Coyle, is to examine the
existing manner in which each AUIR component accounts for the seasonal population influx.
compare against the demand experienced by each component to determine if the seasonal
population adjustments are appropriate. To initiate such an analysis, the current methodology
utilized by each department in relation to the demands of the seasonal population influx must be
established. Below is the current method each component of the AUIR accounts for the
County's seasonal population influx within its capital improvement programming.
Aum Component
Transportation
Population Utilized
PopulatiDn projections utilized for
Long Range Transportation
Planning
~
Drainage Canals and
Structures
Seasonal Population not utilized
Agenda Item NO.1 OB
June 10, 2008
Page 2 of 71
Solid Waste
Regional Parks
Community Parks
Peak season within District
boundary
Peak season within District
boundary
Peak season Countywide
Peak season Countywide
Peak season Unincorporated
County
Peak season Countywide
Peak season Unincorporated
County
Peak season Countywide
Peak season Countywide
Peak season Countywide
Peak season within District
boundary
Potable Water
Wastewater
Jails
Law Enforcement
Library
Emergency Medical Services
Government Buildings
Dependent Fire Districts
Based on the above breakdown, peak season population numbers are utilized by each component
of the AUIR with the exception of Transportation and Drainage Canals and Structures. Peak
season population is simply the permanent population and projections allocated to Collier
County from the Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research with a 20 percent upward
adjustment to account for the seasonal population influx. The Comprehensive Planning
memorandum to the Collier County Planning Commission, dated December 20, 2006, which
provides the justification of the establishnlent of the 20 percent peak scasonal population
adjustment has been attached to the executive summary as, exhibit "D". It should be noted that
the population methodology wa~ adopted by the BCC on January 25,2007.
---
As part of the original BCC request during the November 5,2007 AUIR workshop, in addition to
the request related to the seasonal population study, the BCC requested that staff explore with the
Department of Community Affairs (DCA) the possibility of utilizing different population figures
for different components of the AUIR. Prior to the 2007 AUIR, the county had utilized different
rates for population projections throughout the AUIR, with a higher seasonal adjustment for
Public Utilities, compared against the other AUIR components utilizing population as the
primary basis for system expansion. Last year, prior to the 2007 AUIR process, through the
Evaluation and Appraisal Report (EAR) based amendments, DCA had indicated that Collier
County must agree upon a consistent population methodology and consistently apply that
methodology throughout the capital improvement programming. Please see exhibit "E", the
Evaluation and Appraisal Report (EAR) based GMP amendment's Objections,
Recommendations and Comments (ORC) report. Through conversation and correspondence
with DCA, staff has confmned that the previous position has not changed. The EAR based
amendment ORC and subsequent correspondence Witll DCA has confirmed that peak season
population must be used per Rule 9J-5.005.l.e. Florida Administrative Code. Specifically.
DCA has indicated that Collier County must use peak season population as the basis for the
Capital Improvements Element. but the decision on the seasonal population factor is a local
decision that requires data and analysis to substantiated. It should be pointed out that DCA did
2
Agenda Item NO.1 08
June 10, 2008
Page 3 of 71
indicate that the percentage increase for seasonal population, while a local decision, has to be
applied at the same rate for every component or subset of the CIE which utilizes seasonal
population. This only applies to the Category "A" facilities, which are the County facilities
which make up the ClEo
The research approach within the Population Study reviewed by the Advisory Boards compared
the current utilization of seasonal population against the monthly demand numbers of each AUIR
component to allow for the determination of the appropriateness of each methodology. The
demand numbers contained within the report carne directly from the individual service providers
and are the most up to date numbers available. It should be noted, that these demand numbers
will provide useful, not only within this seasonal population study, but as well for the upcoming
2008 AUIR in determining, based upon demand trends, as to whether the levels of service
standards allocated to each respective component of the AUIR is set at an appropriate level.
Please note that this methodology is simplistic compared to the complex analysis undertaken by
individual divisions and departments in their respective master planning processes.
Productivity Committee (PC) Review:
As noted, the PC reviewed the Seasonal Population Study at their regularly scheduled April
meeting, held on April 16, 2008. The PC was unable to form a consensus regarding a
recommendation to the BCC related to the Study, a more detailed description of the discussion is
provided for within Exhibit "B" of this executive sunlmary. The PC motioned to forward a
recommendation to the BCC that the utilization of the seasonal adjustment of 20 percent was not
appropriate and recommended utilizing permanent population as the basis for capital expansion
for all AUIR elements which utilize population as the basis for system expansion, with the
exception of Emergency Medical Services (EMS). It is incumbent upon Staff to note that this
motion is inconsistent with the Florida Administrative Code and the DCA's EAR based
amendment ORe. The motion maker had indicated that the demand numbers contained in the
Study did not suggest a strong enough correlation between the seasonal adjustment (20 percent)
and the increase in demand experienced by the service providers. The vote on the motion was
split 5 to 5 and failed for lack of a majority. A second motion was not promulgated by the PC
and the item was closed with no official recommendation forthcoming.
.---.
Collier County Planninl! Commission (CCPC) Review:
As noted, the CCPC reviewed the Seasonal Population Study at their regularly scheduled
meeting on April 17, 2008. The CCPC through deliberation did not provide a recommendation,
but rather a request based upon the unanimous recognition that the seasonal population does
indeed impact the various AUIR components at a different rate. The CCPC requested that the
Seasonal Population Study be brought back before the CCPC in June or July with the demand
numbers presented in a specific manner. The CCPC recommended to analyze the demand
numbers following a similar approach utilized by the Transportation Division. The first analysis
of the demand numbers is to present the average of the five highest months and the average of
the five lowest months, compared against the current 20 percent seasonal increase. The second
analysis of the demand numbers is similar to the tirst, but will present the average of the six
highest months and the average of the six lowest months, compared against the current 20
percent seasonal increase. The last set of analysis will be similar to staffs PowerPoint
presentation from the April 17'h CCPC meeting, which compares March to August of each of the
3
Agenda Item No. 10B
June 10, 2008
Page 4 of 71
three years presented. That PowerPoint has been attached as Exhibit "c" to this executive
summary.
FISCAL IMPACT:
There are no direct fiscal impacts associated with this executive summary, but the Seasonal
Population Study requested by the CCPC for a second review may result in recommendations to
lower levels of service for a variety of AUIR components. These potential reductions in levels
of service would result in the provision of less capital expansion, which could have a direct
reduction in capital improvements and corresponding capital outlays.
GROWTH MANAGEMENT PLAN (GMP) IMPACT:
At this time there are no direct GMP impacts associated with this executive summary, but the
Seasonal Population Study requested by the CCPC for a second review may result in
recommendations to lower levels of service for a variety of AUIR components. If the
recommendations initiated by the CCPC during their review of the Study results in a
recommendation for a lowering of the level of service within a category "A" facility. then the
Capital Improvements Element (CIE) within the GMP would require the corresponding
amendment.
LEGAL CONSIDERATIONS:
<~---
This executive summary has been reviewed by the County Attorney's Office and no legal issues
were raised. but it must be remembered that in conducting the Study. staff must stay within the
parameters of the growth management laws of the State (Chapter 163, Part II, Florida Statutes
and Rule 9J-5, Florida Administrative Code). (MMSS)
STAFF RECOMMENDATION:
Staff recommends that the BCC provide direction to allow for the CCPC second review of the
AUIR Seasonal Population Study in July 2008, with the understanding that the potential
recommended changes to the levels of service for the various AUIR components will be
provided for and delineated within the 2008 AUIR.
Prepared by: Mike Bosi, AlCP, Community Planning and Redevelopment Manager,
Comprehensive Planning Department
.-'
4
Item Number:
Item Summary:
Meeting Date:
Page I of 2
Agenda Item NO.1 08
June 10,2008
Page 5 of 71
COLLIER COUNTY
BOARO OF COUNTY COMMISSIONERS
10B
Provide the Board of County Commissioners (BCG) a summary of Collier County Productivity
Committee (PC) and Planning Commission (CepC) review of the Seasonal Population Study
conducted on the April 16 and April 17, 2008, respectively. The Seasonal Population Study
was directed by the BeC at their November 5. 2007 workshop for components of the Annual
Update and Inventory Report (AUIR) on Public Facilities as provided for in Chapter 6.02.02 of
the Collier County Land Development Code. (Mike Basi, AICP, Community Planning and
Redevelopment Manager, Comprehensive Planning, GDES)
6/10/2008 9:0000 AM
Prepared By
Mike Basi, Ale?
Community Development &
Environmental Services
Principal Planner
Date
Approved By
Zoning & Land Development Review
4/30/200810:55:04 AM
Judy Puig
Community Development &
Environmental Services
Operations Analyst
Community Development &
Environmental Services Admin.
Dale
Approved By
5/1/200812:43 PM
Randall J. Cohen
Community Development &
Environmental Services
Comprehensive Planning Department
Director
Date
Comprehensive Planning
5/6/2008 7:36 AM
Approved By
Joseph K. Schmitt
Community Development &
Environmental Services
Community Development &
Environmental Services Adminstrator
Date
Community Development &
Environmental Services Admin.
5/29/20089:52 AM
Approved By
Date
Marjorie M. Student~Stirling Assistant County Attorney
5/29/20083:02 PM
Approved By
County Attorney County Attorney Office
OMB Coordinator
County Manager's Office
OMB Coordinator
Date
Office of Management & Budget
5/30/2008 8:44 AM
Approved By
r
Mark Isackson
County Manager's Office
Budget Analyst
Date
Office of Management & Budget
5/30/200810:01 AM
Approved By
file://C:\AgendaTest\Export\ 1 09-June%20 10.%202008\1 0.%20COUNTY%20MANAGER%... 6/4/2008
Page 2 of2
Agenda Item NO.1 08
June 10, 2008
Page 6 of 71
Susan Usher
Senior ManagemenUBudget Analyst
Date
County Manager's Office
Office of Management & Budget
612120087:58 PM
Approved By
James V. Mudd
County Manager
Date
Board of County
Commissioners
County Manager's Office
613/200810:25 AM
file://C:\AgendaTest\Export\ 1 09-June%20 1 0,%202008\ 1 0.%20COUNTY%20MANAGER%... 6/4/2008
Agenda Item No. 10B
June 10, 2008
Page 7 of 71
Presentation to Collier County Planning Commission (CCPC) and Productivity Committee
(PC) of the Annual Update and Inventory Report (AUIR) Seasonal Population Study, as
Directed by the Collier County Board of County Commissioners (BCC), for components of
the AUIR on Public Facilities as provided for in Chapter 6.02.02 of the Collier County
Land Development Code.
OBJECTIVE: Request that the CCPC and PC review the AUIR Seasonal Population Study on
public facilities and provide recommendations to the BCC for inclusion within the 2008 AUIR
related to the utilization of Peak Season Population within the capital improvement
programming.
BACKGROUND:
Chapter 6.02.02 of the LDC established a management and monitoring program for public
facilities, which provides for an annual determination of capital improvements for Category "A"
and "B" facilities and the identification of additional facility needs. LDC Section 6.02.02 states
the specific purpose of the AUIR as, "a management and monitoring program that evaluates the
conditions of public facilities to ensure they are being adequately planned for and funded to
maintain the LOS for each public facility." It should be noted that only category "A" facilities
are included within the annual update of the eIE and subject to the concurrency management
system
On November 5, 2007 the Board of County Commissioners (BCe) held a workshop pertaining to
the 2007 AUIR. During the meeting, the BCC directed staff to examine the affect of the
seasonal population on the various components of the AUIR. Page 37 of the minutes from the
November 5, 2007 BCC AUIR workshop provides the specific direction provided by the Board.
COMMISSIONR COYLE: "1 would ask that somebody take on a special study soon so that we
can - - we can go ahead and pass this AUIR with our recommendations and modification as they
come up today, but immediately after that, 1 think we need to start an action program to
specifically address how we apply the population figures and the peak population figures to
specific government facilities. Because it's clear that government facilities are impacted
differently. "
MR. COHEN: "Commissioner, if that's your direction and the rest of the board's direction, we'll
do that starting immediately afier this A UIR.
The reasoning behind the request, as expressed above by Commissioner Coyle, is to examine the
existing manner in which each AUIR component accounts for the season population influx,
compare against the demand experienced by each component to determine if the seasonal
population adjustments are appropriate. To initiate such an analysis, the current methodology
utilized by each department in relatiDn to the demands of the seasonal population influx must be
established. Below is the current method each component of the AUIR accounts for the
County's season population influx within its capital improvement programming.
~
(
,
Page 1 of 41
Agenda Item NO.1 OB
June 10, 2008
Page 8 of 71
AUIR Component
Transportation
Population Utilized
Population projections utilized for
Long Range Transportation
Planning
Drainage Canals and
Structures
Potable Water
Wastewater
Seasonal Population not utilized
Peak season within District
boundary
Peak season within District
boundary
Peak season Countywide
Peak season Countywide
Peak season Unincorporated
County
Peak season Countywide
Peak season Unincorporated
County
Peak season Countywide
Peak season Countywide
Peak season Countywide
Peak season within District
boundary
Solid Waste
Regional Parks
Community Parks
Jails
Law Enforcement
Library
Emergency Medical Services
Government Buildings
Dependent Fire Districts
Based on the above breakdown, Peak season population numbers are utilized by each component
of the AUIR with the exception of Transportation and Drainage Canals and Structures. Peak
season population is simply the permanent population and projections allocated to Collier
County from the Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research with a 20 percent upward
adjustment to account for the seasonal population influx.
As part of the original BCC request during the November 5,2007 AUIR workshop, in addition to
the request related to the seasonal population study, the BCC requested that staff explore with
DCA the possibility of utilizing different population figures for different components of the
AUIR. Prior to the 2007 AUIR, the county had utilized different rates for population projections
throughout the AUIR, with a higher seasonal adjustment for Public Utilities, compared against
the other AUIR components utilizing population as the primary basis for system expansion. Last
year, prior to the 2007 AUIR process, through the EAR based amendments, DCA had indicated
that Collier County must agree upon a consistent population methodology and consistently apply
that methodology throughout the capital improvement programming. Through conversation and
corrcspondence with DCA, staff has confirmed that the previous position has not changed. The
correspondence with DCA has confirmed the County's discretion in relation to the peak season
mark up. Specifically, DCA has indicated that the choice of utilizing peak season population or
permanent population as the basis for the Capital Improvement Element (CIE) is a local decision.
It should be pointed out that DCA did indicate that the percentage increase for seasonal
population, while a local decision, has to be applied at the same rate for every component or
Page 2 of 41
Agenda Item No.1 OB
June 10, 2008
Page 9 of 71
subset of the CIE which utilizes seasonal population. This only applies to the Category "A"
facilities, which are the County facilities which make up the CIE. The same restriction does not
apply to the Category "B" facilities. For example if the result of the seasonal population study is
the determination that Libraries should utilize permanent population, rather than peak season
population as the basis, that decision would not be endorsed or condemned by DCA, but rather
simply would be recognized as a local choice.
As noted, the research approach within the following Population Study, staff has compared the
current utilization of seasonal population against the monthly demand numbers of each AUIR
component to allow for the determination of the appropriateness of each methodology. The
demand numbers contained within the report came directly from the individual service providers
and are the most up to date numbers available. It should be noted, that these demand numbers
will provide useful, not only within this seasonal population study, but as well for the upcoming
2008 AUIR in determining, based upon demand trends, as to whether the levels of service
standards allocated to each respective component of the A UIR is set at an appropriate level.
Additionally, Staff will continue to stress the AUIR methodology for determining Capital
Improvements, the manner in which LOSS plays a role in determining those improvements, and
the process of determining if the current LOSS are appropriate based upon the demands placed
upon each AUIR component.
.~
Below is a section by section analysis of each AUIR component, the demand numbers
experienced within the AUIR component on a three year basis and observational analysis to
some of the numbers presented within each. It should be noted that base on the unique nature of
Government Buildings, staff was unable to identifY a quantifiable number to evaluate the
demands the seasonal population places upon the service. Due to this fact, the Study does not
provide a sectional analysis of that AUIR component.
Transportation (Using Yearly Calendar Quarters 2005 - 2007)
Collier County Transportation Planning and the Collier County Metropolitan Planning
Organization (MPO) use population projections, growth rates and approved land use from the
Future Land Use map for long range planning and the adoption of the Long Range
Transportation Plan (LRTP). This is used to compare location of needs, existing facilities,
growth rates and associated costs in five year increments. This is done for a 25 year period. The
MPO LRTP is updated almost every 2 years as minor updates and every 5 years as major
updates.
In the 5 year CIE traffic counts and trends are used to evaluate needs and define deficiencies.
Population trends or modifications to population totals are not used in the 5 year CIE because it
would not relate accurately as we open new facilities and expand existing facilities. The AUIR
provides a short term planning tool to evaluate traffic patterns, define deficiencies and most
importantly review funding streams to prioritize capital projects. All projects in the 5 year CIE
must have been identified in the LRTP. Attached is a map showing the location of transportation
trip count stations and the numbers recorded at those stations over the past three years to provide
a more detailed understanding of the changing dynamics of the transportation system.
--..
Page3 of 41
Agenda Item NO.1 OB
June 10, 2008
Page 10 of 71
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Agenda Item No. 10B
STATION 515 - PINE RIDGE ROAD WEST OF AIRPORT PULLING ROAD ~angee 1,02 ~f~~
The cumulative Quarterly Average Daily Trips per Year totals have demonstrated a recent
reduction in trip counts in 2007 that are the lowest in the three-year study period (2005 -
201,156), (2006 - 217,651), and (2007 - 197,443). A 9% decreased occurred in Quarterly
Average Daily Trips per Year from 2006 to 2007. The highest Quarterly Average Daily Trip
Counts for the study period occurred in the Fourth Quarter (Oct - Dec) of 2006 at 59,278 trips.
The second highest Quarterly Average Daily Trip Count occurred in the Fourth Quarter (Oct -
Dec) of 2005 at 57,416, and the third highest trip count occurred in the First Quarter (Jan -
March) of 2006 at 56,120. The lowest Quarterly Average Daily Trip Count occurred in the
Second Quarter (April- June) of 2007 at 44,164. The difference between the highest (59,278)
and lowest (44,164) Quarterly Daily Trip Count for the three year period was 15,114 average
daily trip counts or a 25% decrease. The 12 Quarterly Average Trips count was 51,345 trips.
The pattern of a seasonal traffic impact is reflected by the greater percentages for the 3- Y ear
Quarterly Percentage Averages in the First (26.24%) and Fourth (27.40%) Quarters, compared
against the 3-Year Annual Quarterly Averages in the Second (23.20%) and Third (23.16%)
Quarters.
Two significant deviations occurred during this study period. First, a spike in the Second Quarter
(April, May, June) represented a 10,000+ Quarterly A veragc Daily Trip increase in 2006 from
2007. Second, a decrease of 7,097 Quarterly Average Daily Trips occurred from 2006 to 2007
during the fourth Quarter (Oct, Nov., Dec.). These distinct traffic anomalies could be associated
to the East-West traffic movements impacted by the construction of the Golden Gate Overpass at
Airport Pulling Road and the 1-75 Golden Gate Interchange.
Page 6 of 41
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June 10 2008
STA nON 559 -DAVIS BOULEVARD EAST OF AIRPORT PULLING ROA>>age 14 of 71
The cumulative Quarterly Average Daily Trips per Year totals have demonstrated a continuing reduction of ;
trip counts over the study period (2005 - 128,332), (2006 - 123,938), and (2007 - 114,303). A II % decrease
has occurred from 2005 to 2007. The highest Quarterly Average Daily Trip Counts for the study period
occurred in the First Quarter (Jan - March) of 2006 with 36,230 average quarterly trips. The second highest
Quarterly Average Daily Trip Count occurred in the First Quarter (Jan - March) of 2005 at 36,023, and the
third highest trip count occurred in the Fourth Quarter (Oct - Dec) of 2005 at 35,190. The lowest Quarterly
Average Daily Trip Count occurred in the 3m Quarter (July-Sept) of 2007 at 24,664. The difference between
the highest (36,230) and lowest (24,664) Quarterly Daily Trip Count for the three year period was 11,566
average daily trip counts or a 32% decrease for that time period. The 12 Quarterly Average Trips count was
30,548 trips.
The pattern of a seasonal traffic impact is reflected by the greater percentages for the 3- Y ear Quarterly
Percentage Averages in the First (29.17%) and Fourth (26.21%) Quarters, compared against the 3-Year
Quarterly Percentage Averages in the Second (22.68%) and Third (21.93%) Quartcrs.
Page 8 of 41
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Agenda Item NO.1 OB
June 10, 2008
STATION 573 - COLLIER BOULEVARD (CR951) NORTH OF DA VIS BOULE~ 6 of 71
The cumulative Quarterly Average Daily Trips per Year totals have demonstrated a recent reduction in trip
counts in 2007 that are the lowest in the three-year study period (2005 - 224,721), (2006 - 229,256), and
(2007 - 198,870). A 13% decrease occurred from 2006 to 2007. The highest Quarterly Average Daily Trip
Count for the study period occurred in the First Quarter (Jan - March) of 2006 with 68,008 average quarterly
trips. The second highest Quarterly Average Daily Trip Count occurred in the Fourth Quarter (Oct - Dec) of
2005 at 63,060, and the third highest trip count occurred in the First Quarter (Jan - March) of2006 at 59,762.
The lowest Quarterly Average Daily Trip Count occurred in the Second Quarter (April - June) of 2007 at
45,088. The difference between the highest (68,008) and lowest (45,088) Quarterly Daily Trip Count for the
three year study period was 22,920 average daily trip counts or a 34% decrease. The 12 Quarterly Average
Trips count was 54,404 trips.
The pattem of a seasonal traffic impact is reflected by the greater percentages for the 3- Y ear Quarterly
Percentage Averages in the First (28.70%) and Fourth (25.51%) Quarters, compared against the 3-Year
Quarterly Percentage Averages in the Second (23.25%) and Third (22.54%) Quarters.
Page 10 of 41
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Agenda Item No. 10B
June 10, 2008
STATON 577 - TAMIAMI TRAIL (US 41) SOUTH OF 99rH AVENUE NORTllage 18 of 71
The cumulative Quarterly Average Daily Trips per Year totals have demonstrated a recent reduction in trip
counts in 2007 that are the lowest in the three-year study period (2005 - 24,472), (2006 - 209,129), (2007 -
204,035). A 2% decrease occurred from 2006 to 2007. The highest Quarterly Average Daily Trip Count
occurred in the First Quarter (Jan - March) of 2006 and the Fourth Quarter (Oct - Dec) of 2005 with 58,488
average quarterly trips. The second highest Quarterly Average Daily Trip Count occurred in the Fourth
Quarter (Oct - Dec) of 2006 at 57,860, and the third highest trip count occurred in the Fourth Quarter (Oct-
Dec) of 2007 at 57,560. The lowest Quarterly Average Daily Trip Count occurred in the Second Quarter
(April- June) of 200 at 58,488. The difference between the highest (58,488) and lowest (58,488) Quarterly
Daily Trip Count for the three year period was 14,287 average daily trip counts or a 24% decrease. The 12
Quarterly Average Trips count was 51,470 trips.
The pattern of a seasonal traffic impact is reflected by the greater percentages for the 3- Y ear Quarterly
Percentage Averages in tile First (26.69%) and Fourth (28.00%) Quarters, compared against the 3-Year
Quarterly Percentage Averages in the Second (21.96%) and Third (23.35%) Quarters.
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Agenda Item NO.1 OB
June 10, 2008
Page 20 of 71
STATION 607 - COLLIER BOULEVARD (CR 951) SOUTH OF GOLDEN GATE PARKWAY
The cumulative Quarterly Average Daily Trips per Year totals have demonstrated a recent reduction in trip
counts in 2007 that are the lowest in the three-year study period (2005 - 116,640), (2006 - 120,240), and
(2007 - 100,765). A 16% decrease occurred in traffic counts from 2006 to 2007. The highest Quarterly
Average Daily Trip count for the study period occurred in the First Quarter (Ian - March) of 2006 with
31,920 average quarterly trips. The second highest Quarterly Average Daily Trip Count occurred in the
Second Quarter (April- June) of2006 at 30,721, and the third highest trip count occurred in the First Quarter
(Jan - March) of 2005 at 30,616. The lowest Quarterly Average Daily Trip Count occurred in the Third
Quarter (July - Sept) of 2007 at 23,071. The difference between the highest (31,920) and lowest (23,07\)
Quarterly Daily Trip Count for the three year period was 8,849 average daily trip counts or a 28% decrease.
The 12 Quarterly Average Trips count was 28,137 trips.
The pattern of a seasonal traffic impact is slightly reflected by the Quarterly Averages, but continued decline
in Quarterly Average Daily Trip Counts has occurred since the 3rd Quarter of 2006, which could be reflective
of the construction start up of the north portion of Collier Boulevard.
Page 14 of 41
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Agenda Item No. 10B
June 10, 2008
ST AnON 673 - LIVINGSTON ROAD NORTH OF IMOKALEE ROAD Page 22 of 71
The cumulative Quarterly Average Daily Trips per Year totals have demonstrated a recent reduction in trip
counts in 2007 that are the lowest in the three-year study period (2005 - 76,361), (2006 - 92,306), and (2007
_ 73,347). A 20% decrease occurred from 2006 to 2007. The highest Quarterly Average Daily Trip Count
for the study period occurred in the First Quarter (Jan - March) of 2006 with 27,448 average quarterly trips.
The second highest Quarterly Average Daily Trip Count occurred in the First Quarter (Jan - March) of 2005
at 23,632, and the third highest trip count occurred in the Fourth Quarter (Oct - Dec) of 2006 at 22,336. The
lowest Quarterly Average Daily Trip Count occurred in the Second Quarter (Oct - Dec) of 2005 at 15,287.
The difference between the highest (27,448) and lowest (15,287) Quarterly Daily Trip Count for the three
year period was 12,161 average daily trip counts or a 80% increase. The 12 Quarterly Average Trips count
was 20,168 trips.
The pattern of a seasonal traffic impact is reflected by the greater percentages for the 3-Year Quarterly
Percentage Averages in the First (29.14%) and Fourth (26.50%) Quarters, compared against the 3-Year
Quarterly Percentage Averages in the Second (21.69%) and Third (22.67%) Quarters.
Page 16 of41
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Agenda Item No. 10B
June 10, 2008
Page 24 of 71
The cumulative Quarterly Average Daily Trips per Year totals have demonstrated a recent reduction in trip
counts in 2007 from the 2006 year level (2005 - 132,823), (2006 - 144,962), and (2007 - 133,566). An 8%
decrease occurred from 2006 to 2007. The highest Quarterly Average Daily Trip Count for the study period
occurred in the First Quarter (Jan - March) of 2006 with 39,639 average quarterly trips. The second highest
Quarterly Average Daily Trip Count occurred in the Fourth Quarter (Oct - Dec) of 2005 at 39,639, and the
third highest trip count occurred in the Fourth Quarter (Oct ~ Dec) of 2006 at 39,371. The lowest Quarterly
Average Daily Trip Count occurred in the Second Quarter (April - June) of 2005 at 28,750. The difference
between the highest (39,639) and lowest (28,750) Quarterly Daily Trip Count for the three year period was
10,889 average daily trip counts or a 27.5% decrease. The 12 Quarterly Average Trips count was 34,280
trips.
The pattern of a seasonal traffic impact is reflected by the greater percentages for the 3-Year Quarterly
Percentage Averages in the First (26.01 %) and Fourth (27.87%) Quarters, compared against the 3-Year
Annual Quarterly Averages in the Third (23.00%) and Second (23.12%) Quarters.
Page 18 of 41
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Agenda Item NO.1 OB
June 10, 2008
Page 26 of 71
Randall Boulevard from Immokalee to Everglades Road
The cumulative Quarterly Average Daily Trips per Year totals have demonstrated a recent increase in trip
counts in 2007 from the 2006 year level (2005 - 36,55), (2006 - 41,666), and (2007 - 44,818). An 8%
increase occurred from 2006 to 2007. The highest Quarterly Average Daily Trip Count for the study period
occurred in the Third Quarter (July - Sept) of 2007 with 11,510 average quarterly trips. The second highest
Quarterly Average Daily Trip Count occurrcd in the First Quarter (Jan - Mar) of 2007 at 11,475, and the third
highest trip count occurred in the Fourth Quarter (Oct - Dec) of 2007 at 11,288. The lowest Quarterly
Average Daily Trip Count occurred in the Third Quarter (July - Sept) of 2005 at 8,749. The difference
between the highest (11,510) and lowest (8,749) Quarterly Average Daily Trip Count for the three year period
was 2,764 average daily trip counts or a 24% decrea.e. The 12 Quarterly Average Trips count was 10,253
trips.
Unlike the majority of urbanized locations, the pattern of a seasonal traffic impact is not represented in the 3-
Year Quarterly Percentage Averages for the road segment. Those 3-Year Quarterly Percentage Averages
were; First (24.55%), Second (23.91 %), Third (25.24%) and Fourth (26.31 %).
Page 20 of 41
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Agenda Item No. 10B
June 10, 2008
Page 28 of 71
Drainal!:e Canals and Structures
Capital expansion/improvement to the County maintained Secondary Stormwater System is dependent upon
providing a level of scrvice based upon flood control, water quality and aquifer recharge. The level of service
for the existing rural estates is based upon a 10 year - 3 day storm event, and for new development it is based
upon a 25 year - 3 day storm event.
Population growth does not theoretically impact storm water facilities. As land is developed, the permitted
discharge should not exceed the peak historical flow prior to development. As new development occurs, the
maximum flow rate of stormwater runoff out of the area should not change from what had previously
occurred, regardless of how many people moved into the area. There is recognition that with growth, it
becomes problematic on how well stormwater improvements within a development are operated and
maintained, however those areas are addressed by the LDC and Code Enforcement issue.
Potable Water (Using Fiscal Calendar 2005 - 2007)
The capital improvements contained within the Annual Update and Inventory Report related to Potable Water
are based upon Peak Season Population projections within the Utilities District boundaries. The Peak Season
Population is multiplied by the LOSS of 185 gallons per capita per day to determine system improvements.
Below are the demand numbers experienced over the past three years.
Page 22 of 41
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Agenda Item NO.1 OB
June 10, 2008
Page 30 of 71
The cumulative monthly Potable Water demand per year has demonstrated an annual increase during the
study period (2005 - 9,116 Million Gallons per Day (MGD), 2006 - 9,272 MGD, 2007 - 9,600 MGD). This
is a 5% increase from 2005 to 2007. The highest monthly demand occurred in March of2007 with 986 MGD.
The second highest monthly potable water demand occurred in March of 2006 at 962 MGD, and the third
highest monthly potable water demand occurred in April of 2006 at 956 MGD. The lowest monthly potable
water demand occurred in September of 2007 at 6 I 3 MGD. The difference between the highest (986 MGD)
and lowest (613 MGD) monthly potable water demand for the three year study period was 373 MGD monthly
potable water demand or a 38% decrease for that time period. The 36 Monthly Average Demand was 777
MGD.
Seasonal population influences is reflective of the 300 MGD increase. The three months which reflected the
highest potable water demand on a 3-Year average by month was March (9.93%), April (9.55%) and January
(9.39%), which substantiates the seasonal impact that occurs.
A spike demand is reflected during March and April of 2006 and 2007. This spike could be representative of
a need by new Seasonal Residential owners using automatic yard sprinkler systems for newly constructed
residential properties.
Waste Water (Using Fiscal Calendar 2005 - 2007)
The capital improvements contained within the Annual Update and Inventory Report related to Waste Water
is based upon Peak Season Population projections within the Utilities District boundaries. The Peak Season
Population is multiplied by the LOSS assigned to specific reclamation facility to determine system
improvements. The North County facility maintains a LOSS of 145 gallons per capita per day, the South
County facility contains a LOSS of 100 gallons per capita per day, the proposed Northeast County facility will
maintain a LOSS of 120 gallons per capita per day, the proposed Southeast County facility will maintain a
LOSS of 120 gallons per capita per day. Below are the demand numbers experienced over the past three
years.
Page 24 of 41
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Agenda Item No. 10B
June 10, 2008
Page 32 of 71
The cumulative monthly Waste Waster demand per year has demonstrated an annual decline during the study
period (2005 - 5,972 MGD, 2006 - 5,834 MGD, 2007 - 5,820 MGD). This is a 2.5% decrease in demand
during the years from 2005 to 2007. The highest total monthly waste water demand occurred in March of
2005 with 598 MGD. The second highest monthly waste water demand occurred in March of 2007 at 560
MGD, and the third highest monthly waste water demand tied in December and July of 2006 at 556 MGD.
The lowest monthly waste water demand occurred in May of 2006 at 375 MGD. The difference between the
highest (598 MGD) and lowest (375 MGD) monthly waste water demand for the three year study period was
223 MGD montllly waste water demand or a 37% decrease for that time period. The 36 Monthly Average
Demand was 490 MGD.
A wave between January thru July reflected a seasonal population impact. The three months which reflected
the highest waste water demand on a 3-Year average by month was March (9.26%), December (8.69%) and
January (8.56%), which substantiates the seasonal impact that occurs.
Solid Waste (Using Fiscal Calendar 2005 - 2007)
The capital improvements contained within the Annual Update and Inventory Report related to Solid Waste
are based upon Peak Season Population projections within the Utilities District boundaries. The Peak Season
Population is multiplied by the LOSS of .70 tons per capita disposal rate to determine system improvements.
Below are the demand numbers experienced over the past three years.
Page 26 of 41
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Agenda Item No. 10B
June 10, 2008
Page 34 of 71
The cumulative monthly Solid Waste disposal demand per year has demonstrated an increase during the study
period (2005 - 254,515,000 tons, 2006 - 278,384,000 tons, 2007 - 282,983,000 tons). This is an 11%
increase from 2005 to 2007. The highest monthly solid waste demand occurred in May of2007 with a total of
32,637,000 tons. The second highest monthly solid waste demand occurred in March of2006 at 27,705,000
tons, and the third highest monthly solid waste demand occurred in March of 2005 at 27,423,000 tons. The
lowest monthly solid waste demand occurred in July of 2007 at 19,677,000 tons. The difference between the
highest (32,637,000 tons) and lowest (19,677,000 tons) monthly solid waste demand for the three year study
period was 13,232,000 tons monthly solid waste demand or a 68% decrease for that time period. The 36
Monthly Average Demand was 22,663,000 Tons.
A fairly close weave is reflected in the 2005 - 2007 monthly data, with the exception of May 2007. The
pattern reflects a Seasonal impact. The three months which reflected the highest solid waste demand on a 3-
Year average by month was March (9.89%), May (9.70%) and January (9.20%), which substantiates the
seasonal impact that occurs.
A slight seasonal increase of approximately 2000 KTONS was documented, starting in December of 2006
thru May 2007, with the highest quantity received in May of 2007. This spike was an 8,206 KTONS greater
than the May 2006 monthly count This spike could be due to the market decline and residential property
owners selling their properties and moving.
Parks and Recreation Facilities (Using Fiscal Calendar 2005 - 2007)
The capital improvements contained within the Annual Update and Inventory Report related to Parks and
Recreation Facilities are based upon County wide Peak Season Population Projections for Regional Parks and
unincorporated Peak Season Population Projections for Community Parks. The Peak Season Population for
each is multiplied by the LOSS of 1.2 acres per 1,000 for Community Parks and 2.9 acres per 1,000 for
Regional Parks to determine system improvements. Below are the demand numbers experienced over the
past three years.
Page 28 of 41
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Agenda Item No. 10B
June 10, 2008
Page 36 of 71
The cumulative total monthly park visits per year has demonstrated an annual increase during the study period ,.'
(2005 - 1,111,448, 2006 - 1.184,080, 2007 - 1,743,963). This is a 57% increase from 2005 to 2007. The
highest monthly park visits occurred in March of 2007 with 203,966 park visits. The second highest monthly
park visits occurred in April of2007 at 183,854 park visits, and the third highest monthly park visits occurred
in May of2007 at 166,448 park visits. The lowest monthly park visits occurred in July of2006 at 69,700 park
visits. The difference between the highest (203,966) and lowest (69,700) monthly park visits for the three
year study period was 134,266 monthly park visits or a 193% decrease for that time period. The 36 Monthly
Average Demand was 112,208 visits.
The data reflects a general increase in the annual usage demands and an increased demand from a Seasonal
Impact. The three months which reflected the highest park visits on a 3-Year average by month was March
(11.10%), April (10.10%) and February (9.64%), which substantiates the seasonal impact that occurs.
The greatest demand for services was in March 2007 at 203,966 visits. From that that period forward the
monthly visit counts experienced average percent increase over the previous two years' monthly totals.
This major spike and continues higher utilization could be attributed to the opening up of the North Regional
Park.
A decrease in the August and September 2006 monthly visit counts need further analysis.
County Jail (Using Fiscal Calendar 2005 - 2007)
The capital improvements contained within the Annual Update and Inventory Report related to County Jail
are based upon Peak Season Population projections County wide. The Peak Season Population is multiplied
by the LOSS of .3.2 beds per 1,000 population to determine system improvements. Below are the demand
numbers experienced over the past three years.
Page 30 of 41
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Agenda Item NO.1 OB
June 10, 2008
Page 38 of 71
The cumulative total monthly Jail Population per year has demonstrated an annual increase during the study
period (2005 ~ 13,651, 2006 - 14,375, 2007 - 14,649). This is a 7% jail population increase occurred during
the years from 2005 to 2007. The highest monthly total jail population occurred in October of 2006 with
1,288. The second highest monthly jail population occurred in July of 2007 at 1,282, and the third highest
monthly jail population occurred in August of2007 at 1,271. The lowest monthly jail population occurred in
December of 2005 at 1,043. The difference between the highest (1,288) and lowest (1,043) monthly jail
population for the three year study period was 245 monthly jail population or a 28% decrease for that time
period. The 36 Monthly Average Demand was 1,185 jail population.
The data over the study period reflects a general increase in monthly Jail Population. The three months which
reflected the highest jail population on a 3-Year average by month was September (8.65%), June (8.60%) and
August (8.50%), which does not reflect a seasonal impact.
A November / December slump could representative of a "Good Will" Law Enforcement / Judicial System re-
action.
A spike in the Jail Population between the fiscal months of September 2005 and October 2006 represents an
increase of 79 in J ail Population or a 6% increase.
The monthly demand graph which illustrates the number of jail cells occupied suggest that the number of Jail
beds available is not affected by the seasonal population. The monthly numbers for jail population have a
very narrow range, with September experiencing the highest monthly demand over the past three years at
8.65% and December experiencing the lowest monthly demand over the same three year period at 7.89%,
There is a less than one percent difference between the highest and lowest monthly demand numbers. This
narrow range does not support the assumption that the Jail population experiences an increase in activity
during the seasonal months. The months of September, June and August, respectively have the highest
demand totals utilizing the three year averages, again this would not suggest the utilization of peak season
population for the provision of new jail cells. Currently there are] 444 jail beds available within the system,
if peak season population and the 20 percent adjustment associated with the utilization of peak season
population was not utilized; the number of available beds would stand at ],155. It should be noted that the
average daily jail population for 2005 was 1,13 7, for 2006 the average was 1,198 and for 2007 tlle average
was 1,220. On average if the jail beds provided were based upon permanent population, the average jail
population would have exceed the number of available beds for the past two years.
Law Enforcement (Using Fiscal Calendar 2005 - 2007)
The capital improvements contained within the Annual Update and Inventory Report related to Law
Enforcement are based upon Peak Season Population Projections County-wide. The Peak Season Population
is multiplied by the LOSS of 1.96 officers per 1,000 population to determine system improvements. Below
are the demand numbers experienced over the past three years.
Page 32 of 41
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Agenda Item No. 10B
June 10, 2008
Page 40 of 71
The cumulative total monthly Calls for Service for Law Enforcement per year has demonstrated a rebound
from a low of 589,511 total calls in 2006 to 636,546 total calls in 2007. The total number of calls was down
11,944 calls from the 2005 (648,489) or 2% reduction. The highest total monthly service calls recorded
during the study period occurred in August of 2005 with 61,086 service calls. The second highest monthly
service call demand occurred in September of 2005 at 57,433, and the third highest monthly service call
demand occurred in March of 2007 at 57,359. The lowest monthly service call demand occurred in July of
2006 at 46,528. The difference between the highest (61,086) and lowest (46,528) monthly service call
demand for the three year study period was 14,558 monthly service call demand or a 24% decrease for that
_ time period. The 36 Monthly Average Demand was 52,071 service calls.
In 2005, the Sheriff's Department modified its response policy from a complaint basis only, to one of a split
yearly approach (Peak Season- complaint basis / No-Peak Season - Officer response). The three months
which reflected the highest frequency of service calls on a 3-Year average by month was May (8.72%),
August (8.68%) and October (8.56%), which does not reflect a seasonal impact, but the departmental
operation procedure.
Law Enforcement - The monthly demand graph which illustrates the number of calls for service place upon
the sheriff's department, with a consistent demand throughout the year, would suggest at first glance that the
Sherriff's department does not experience the type of increased demand during the seasonal months as other
County service providers such as EMS, Libraries and Parks. The three year average monthly numbers
depicting calls for service have a very narrow range between the highest and lowest months, with May
experiencing the highest monthly demand over the past three years at 8.72% and February experiencing the
lowest monthly demand over the same three year period at 7.83%. There is a less than one percent difference
between the highest and lowest month demand numbers. This narrow range does not support the assumption
that the Sherriffs office experiences an increase in activity during the seasonal months. To further augment
the position that the sheriffs department is not affected by the seasonal population increase, the month with
the lowest number of calls for service was February, the median month for the County's seasonal population.
From the demand number as presented, it would suggest that the County's current policy of utilizing seasonal
population to plan for and provide for new officers is not in line with the realities expressed by the monthly
calls for service. Through conversation with the Sherriff's department it appears that the numbers are
misleading. The Sherriffs office has stated that operational characteristics utilized within the organization
have the grcatest bearing upon the narrow range of calls for service on a month to month basis. During the
seasonal months the department, as a whole, operates under a reactionary position and during the non-
seasonal months the department, as a whole operates under a proactive position. TIlls operational change is
the primary key in the tight range of activity throughout the year. During the peak season, due to the number
of citizen initiated calls for service in relationship to sheriff's staffing, the majority of a field officer's time is
utilized responding to citizen initiated calls for service. During the non-peak season, with the number of
citizen initiated calls greatly reduced, the individual field officers adopt a more diligent proactive approach to
law enforcement, which results in a much higher officer initiated call for service. As noted, these positions
are supported within the breakdown of origins of calls for service. Review of these numbers portray a much
higher volume of citizen initiated calls during the peak season and a higher volume of officer initiated calls
for service during the non-seasonal months. As a result of this shift with organizational characteristics, the
Sherriff's department is able to maximize its efficiency and consistently utilized the full resources within the
organization throughout the calendar year and the shifting demand expressed throughout the calendar year.
Libraries (Using Fiscal Calendar 2005 - 2007)
Page 34 of 41
Agenda Item NO.1 OB
June 10, 2008
Page410f71
The capital improvements contained within the Annual Update and Inventory Report related to Library
Buildings and Materials are based upon County-wide Peak Season Population Projections. The Peak Season
Population is multiplied by the LOSS of .33 square feet per capita for Library Buildings and 1.87 items per
capita for Library Materials to determine system improvements. Below are the demand numbers experienced
over the past three years.
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Page 35 of 41
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Agenda Item No. 10B
June 10, 2008
Page 43 of 71
DOOR COUNTS
The cumulative total monthly Library Door Counts per year has demonstrated a rebound from 2006
(1,761,491) to 2007 (1,802,960), which is an increase of 41,469 visits. The 2007 total library door counts
were still 151,964 visits less that in 2005 (1,954,924). This is a 7.7% reduction in library door counts. The
highest monthly total library door counts occurred in September of 2005 with 223,056 visits. The second
highest monthly library door counts occurred in March of 2006 at 203,670, and the third highest monthly
library door counts occurred in March of 2005 at 199,753. The lowest monthly library door counts occurred
in October of 2006 at 110,312. The difference between the highest (223,056) and lowest (110,312) monthly
library door counts for the three year study period was 112,744 monthly library door counts or a 50%
decrease for that time period. This very significant range of door counts is very possibly an impact of the
very active hurricane events that occurred at that time. The 36 Monthly Average Demand was 153,316 door
counts.
The data reflects a very strong seasonal usage impact by the contribution of an additional 45,000 door counts.
The highest average total of monthly door counts occurred in March (200,908). The three months which
reflected the highest library door counts on a 3-Year average by month was March (10.80%), February
(9.81 %) and January (9.47%), which does reflect a seasonal impact.
'-,
Page 37 of 41
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Agenda Item No. 10B
June 10, 2008
Page 45 of 71
LffiRARY CIRCULA nON
The cumulative monthly total of Library Circulation per year has demonstrated a rebound from 2006
(2,722,539) to 2007 (2,916,523). The highest monthly library circulation total occurred in March of 2005
with 296,361. The second highest monthly library circulation occurred in March of 2007 at 287,841, and the
third highest monthly library circulation occurred in June of 2007 at 278,586. The lowest monthly library
circulation occurred in May of 2006 at 195,564. The difference between the highest (296,361) and lowest
(195,564) monthly library circulation for the three year study period was 100,797 monthly library circulation
or a 34% decrease for that time period. The 36 Monthly Average Demand was 235,916 circulations.
Two distinct peak periods were depicted thru the month circulation in the study period from 2005 to 2007:
o One paralleled the seasonal population influence
o One ran through the summer months, which could be related to the use of library materials by the
school age population that are out of school and or non-school age population using these materials to
entertain themselves inside during the hotter months.
The three months which reflected the highest library circulation on a 3-Year average by month was March
(10.14%), June (9.46%) and January (9.25%), which does reflect a seasonal impact as well as a summer
impact.
Emerl!encv Medical Services (EMS) (Using Fiscal Calendar 2005 - 2007)
The capital improvements contained within the Annual Update and Inventory Report related to EMS are
based upon Peak Season Population projections County-wide. The Peak Season Population is multiplied by
the LOSS of I unit per 16,400 population to determine system improvements. Below are the demand
numbers experienced over the past three years.
,~---,
Page 39 of 41
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Agenda Item No.1 OB
June 10, 2008
Page 47 of 71
The cumulative monthly EMS Calls for Service per year have demonstrated a recent reduction in calls in 2007
from the 2006 year level (2005 - 33,784), (2006 - 35,270), and (2007 - 33919), This is a 3.8% decrease in
service calls from 2006 to 2007. The highest total monthly service calls for the 36 months occurred in March
2007 with 3,549 service calls. The second highest monthly service calls occurred in March of 2006 at 3,490,
and the third highest monthly service calls occurred in March of 2005 at 3,460. With March of each year
analyzed resulting in the greatest number of calls for service, a direct corollary can be drawn between the
demand for service and the seasonal population influx. The lowest monthly service calls occurred in
September of 2007 at 2,378. The difference between the highest (3,549) and lowest (2,378) monthly service
calls for the three year study period was 1,171 monthly service calls or a 49% increase. The 36 Monthly
Average Demand was 2,860 service calls.
A seasonal increase is reflected from the months between November thru May, with the peak month of March
(averaging 3,500) to the low call month of June (averaging 2,464). This range represents an average decrease
of 1,036 calls or a 29.6% decrease. The three months which reflected the highest calls for service on a 3-Year
average by month was March (10.20%), February (9.27%) and January (9.07%), which does reflect a seasonal
impact.
Requested Action
Staff requests that the Productivity Committee (PC) and the Collier County Planning Commission (CCPC)
review the current utilization of peak seasonal population by each AUIR component, compared against the
monthly demand numbers presented within the study, and forward a determination to the BCC if the
utilization of peak season population is appropriate for each AUIR component.
PREPARED BY: ~~ Date: ']-("')-<J,9
MIKE BOSI, AICP, COMMUNITY PLANNING MANAGER
COMP)REH~()IVE PLAA'NING DEPARTMENT
APPROVED BY: 'ft ~ Date: 3 -I 7, o~
RANDALL COI N, AICP, DIRECTOR
COMPREHENS E PLANNING DEPARTMENT
APPROVED BY: Date: w1j;~y
EPH K. SCHMITT, AD INISTRATOR' ,
OMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT & ENVIRONMENTAL
ERVICES
,--..
Page 41 of 41
Exhibit "B"
Agenda Item NO.1 OB
June 10, 2008
Page 48 of 71
As indicated within the executive summary, the Productivity Committee, during their April 16th,
2008 review of the Seasonal Population Study was unable to forward a recommendation to the
BCC. The advisory board during the meeting had initiated a motion to recommend to the BCC
that seasonal population no longer be utilized by the County and that the County utilize
permanent population for its capital improvement programming. The vote upon that motion was
deadlocked at five for and five against The motion failed for lack of a majority and a second
motion was not offered, with the Productivity Committee offering no recommendation to the
BCC upon the item. Those members in dissent of the motion indicated that they felt that the
seasonal increase that the various departments experienced, as expressed by the demand numbers
contained in the study, while not uniformly experienced at the 20 percent increase currently
utilized, were an increase above the demand placed upon the various AUIR components by the
County's permanent population. It was this recognition that was the basis for their vote against
the motion. The executive summary briefly highlights the factor utilized to establish the original
motion, indicating that the seasonal increase was not expressed strongly enough by the demand
numbers to justifY the utilization of the 20 percent seasonal increase for capital improvement
programming. A more specific and detailed account for the factors utilized to establish this
position is provided below.
DRAFT
Productivity Committee Review of AUIR Seasonal Population Study
A review of the AUIR seasonal population study, which is based on demand
for services for each function, shows that seasonal population has very little effect
on most components of the AUIR.
Transportation
Demand for roads is measured by traffic counts, which are highest in the 1st
and 4th quarters of the year. But the peak season traffic counts of the I st quarter are
not significantly higher than the 4th quarter counts.
Potable Water
Potable water demand is not very sensitive to peak population. The greatest
demand is in the driest months of March, April and May, making water usage more
sensitive to drought than peak population.
Wastewater
Usage of wastewater facilities is generally flat for 8 months of the year,
excluding a high March and low April, May and June. Seasonal population does
not affect wastewater facility use.
Solid Waste
Solid waste is not very sensitive to peak population. January through May
has high usage, but May has the highest average use and is well past the peak
Exhibit "B"
Agenda Item No. 10B
June 10, 2008
Page 49 of 71
population months.
Parks
February, March and April are the peak months for park visits over the last 3
years. In 2007, the highest months are March, April, May, June, July and August
That usage correlates higher with warm weather and the opening of the north
regional park, rather than with peak population.
Jails
There is no correlation between peak population and jail population.
Law Enforcement
Law enforcement calls for service are very consistent for 11 months of the
year. There is no correlation with peak population.
Libraries
Library door counts are sensitive to peak population, although there is an
anomaly with total population increasing each year but demand dropping
significantly in 2006.
EMS
Peak population affects EMS calls for service, although there is an anomaly
with total population increasing each year but demand dropping significantly in
2007.
Conclusions
The demand for services from category A facilities is not very sensitive to
increased population during the peak population months of January, February and
March. We recommend that potable water, wastewater, solid waste and park
facilities be changed from seasonal to permanent population in the AUIR.
Category B facilities for jails, law enforcement and government buildings
should also change to permanent population. Seasonal population does affect EMS
and library facilities; however we defer any recommendation on EMS until our
EMS master plan review is completed. Libraries have sufficient capacity to meet
service standards for years and can afford to use permanent population.
Using permanent population, rather that seasonal population, will also help
Collier County achieve the current LOSS during the 2008 AUIR period when we
will have significantly reduced financial resources. The change to permanent
population will also reduce some impact fees in the future.
.~
Janet Vasey
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Exhibit "D"
Agenda Item NO.1 OB
June 10, 2008
Page 66 of 71
t;;'
W
Memorandum
To:
Collier County Planning Commission (CCPC)
From:
Randy Cohen, Director, CCPC
Date:
December 20, 2006
Subject: Population Methodology
The CCPC met on December 7, 2006 and provided recommendations to the BCC regarding
Collier County's existing population methodology as set forth in the Collier County Growth
Management Plan (GMP). As you recall, the Florida Department of Community Affairs (DCA)
determined that Collier County's adopted population methodology was not a professionally
acceptable population methodology and recommended that all affected policies in the GMP be
modified to provide a professionally acceptable population methodology supported by data an
analysis. The language provided by DCA was as follows:
Policy.4.8:
Maintain and update, on an annual basis, the following demographic and land use information:
existing permanent population, existing seasonal population, projected population, existing
dwelling units, and projected dwelling units. Included with this database shall be a forecast of
the geographic distribution of anticipated growth. Population estimates and projections shall be
based upon the most recent population bulletin from the University of Florida's Bureau of
Economic and Business Research (BEBR), except where decennial census estimates are
available. The County shall utilize for planning purposes the BEBR's mid range population
projection as adjusted to account for seasonal population. These projections may be adjusted
annually to reflect new BEBR projections or more recent information regarding seasonal
population rates.
The Collier County Board of County Commissioners (BeC) met in regular session on December
12, 2006. The BCC considered the staff report, CCPC recommendations and DCA's
recommended language. The direction from the BCC was that staff should provide the data and
analysis regarding the proper Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) methodology
(see attached methodology) and the appropriate seasonal population adjustment. Moreover, the
BCC did not want DCA dictating the methodology or the seasonal adjustment if staff disagreed
with the DCA recommended methodology. The forthcoming analysis and recommended
seasonal adjustment is supported by data and analysis undertaken by Collier County's
Comprehensive Planning Department
Community Development and Environmental services
Office of the Administrator
Exhibit "D"
Agenda Item No. 10B
June 10, 2008
Page 67 of 71
The initial starting point in the analysis was what BEBR methodology for permanent population
was in line with current and projected county growth rates. An analysis of this year's building
permit and certificate of occupancy data reflect that the BEBR medium range numbers for
permanent population were appropriate. The next step was a starting point for seasonal
population as provided by the United States Census Bureau. The seasonal population rate for the
year 2000 was 23.8. As a point of emphasis this figure is based on housing units held for
seasonal use and are not included in the 71.2 percent of the total housing units which have been
used to generate the permanent population numbers for the year 2000 which BEBR then adjust
annually based on its professionally accepted methodology which is their statutory mandate. At
no time are any units double counted as the initial basis is set forth in the 2000 census which
accounts for 100 percent of the total county units when adding together occupied units (102,973)
and vacant housing units (4 I ,563) which account for 100 percent of the total housing units
(144,536) in Collier County during the 2000 census year. Please note that 34,337 of the 41,563
vacant units were held for seasonal use. The 34,337 seasonal units account for 23.8 percent of
the total housing units in Collier County in 2000.
It should be noted that the 23.8 percent seasonal units represents a countywide figure and could
be skewed when analyzing the particular impacts on county wide public infrastructure.
Moreover, some county public facilities serve the entire county population (e.g. solid waste and
regional parks) where conversely some public infrastructure only serve certain segments of the
county's populations, (water, sewer and community parks). The other flaw in the methodology
is the 23.8 percent seasonal units are never occupied 100 percent of the time and this number
would need to be discounted to accurately project peak season use of the county's public
facilities. For the purpose of this analysis, it is assumed that peak occupancy of 85 percent will
transpire as the BCC provided direction to be conservative to avoid any future public health,
safety and welfare issues similar to what transpired with public utilities approximately 5 years
ago.
As a starting point, the 23.8 percent countywide seasonal was discounted by 15 percent to reflect
the 85 percent assumed peak occupancy. Under that assumption, the highest occupancy rate
during peak season would be 20.3 percent. Assuming this peak season without any
substantiating data would be flawed without looking at geographic disparities which could occur
when looking at a county with large geographic areas which also includes cities with high
seasonal population rates.
Therefore, an analysis was undertaken by removing the cities of Naples and Marco Island to
determine the net effect on seasonal population. The net effect would be a reduction of the
countywide seasonal population rate from 23.8 percent to 19.4 percent. This analysis is short
sighted in some respects as regional parks and solid waste are public facilities which serve the
cities of Naples and Marco Island. Assuming 85 percent peak occupancy, the 19.4 percent
seasonal population rate would be adjust to 16.49 percent.
('
The next rationale step was to analyze block data within the water and sewer districts. The
analysis is constrained in some respects as the water district and sewer district do not fo now the
boundaries of the U.S. Census block data. Regardless, staff was able to obtain a more than
adequate sample of seasonal units in the water district and in the sewer district.
Community Development and Environmental services
Office of the Administrator
Agenda Item No. 10B
June 10, 2008
Exhibit "D" Page 68 of 71
The analysis of the water district was undertaken with the general premise of using block data for
blocks that were 100 percent within the water district. There are ]63,988 units in the water
district and the block data for blocks totally within the water district contained 93,373 housing
units which accounts for a 56.9 percent sample which is more than statistically sound. It would
have been inappropriate and professionally unacceptable to interpolate data from other blocks
which straddle the water district boundary lines as it could adversely skew what is
unquestionable data provided by the U.S. Census. The analysis of the water district's 56.9
percent sample indicates that 23.9 percent of the units are held for seasonal use. Assuming an 85
percent peak occupancy, the 23.9 percent seasonal population rate would be adjusted to 20.13
percent
The next rationale step was to analyze block data within the sewer district. Staff was able to
obtain a more than adequate sample of seasonal units in the sewer district. The analysis of the
sewer water district was undertaken with the general premise of using block data for blocks that
were I 00 percent within the sewer district. There are 1 86, 116 units in the sewer district and the
block data for blocks totally within the sewer district contained 145,263 housing units which
accounts for a 77.99 percent sample which is more than statistically sound. As was the case with
the water district, it would have been inappropriate and professionally unacceptable to
interpolate data from other blocks which straddle the sewer district boundary lines as it could
adversely skew what is unquestionable data provided by the U.S. Census. The analysis of the
sewer district's 77.99 percent sample indicates that 19.9 percent of the units are held for seasonal
use. Assuming 85 percent peak occupancy, the 19.9 percent seasonal population rate would be
adjusted to 16.92 percent
It should be noted that the seasonal rates for the water and sewer districts should be dissimilar as
they do not have the same geographic boundaries.
The sewer district seasonal population is similar to the county wide adjusted population when
removing the cities of Naples and Marco Island. Conversely, the water district and countywide
population numbers are similar. However, in the grand scheme of the analysis when using the
proposed DCA methodology this percentage differential become less of an issue which will be
discussed below.
The other concern the BCC expressed was even though the existing population methodology was
flawed that it appeared to be working. Quite frankly appearances can be deceiving as the
continuation of this methodology into future years based on the slow down in growth trends
would have resulted in providing public facilities at an accelerated rate beyond the needs of the
county with obvious budgetary ramifications. Staff analyzed the BEBR medium and high
population projections and have determined that the medium BEBR numbers accurately reflect
the current and anticipated building permit and certificated of occupancy data. However, Collier
County is fortunate as the DCA recommended language allows the county to revisit the
population methodology on an annual basis wherein changes in growth as well as seasonal
population can be analyzed to determine if the data warrants changes in the assumptions used in
determining permanent population as well as seasonal population trends. The 20] 0 census will
also provide for changes in the methodology.
The next logical step in the analysis was to analyze seasonal population rates under the existing
methodology when compared to the existing methodology and also if the seasonal rate remained
unchanged at 33 percent as set forth in the GMP. It should be noted that DCA specifically
Community Development and Environmental services
Office of the Administrator
Agenda Item No. 10B
June 10, 2008
Exhibit "D" Page 69 of 71
requested that Collier County analyze its seasonal population rate. That analysis is set forth on
the attached spreadsheets but can be easily visualized on the attached charts which graphically
depict that the change in the methodology would be minimal given the above seasonal
population rates provided by the U.S. Census, the adjusted seasonal rate discounting the cities of
Naples and Marco Island, the water district and sewer district seasonal population rates.
Staff was provided direction by the BCC to provide for the worst case scenario with regard to
public utilities. Pursuant to that direction staff is recommending that the CCPC consider
recommending to the BCC the use of the BEBR Medium Population projections with a seasonal
population adjustment of 20 percent. Arguably a case can be made for a seasonal adjustment of
17,18 or 19 percent. However, that recommendation would be contrary to the BCC direction
and an analysis of the population projections under the 17 percent scenario when compared to
the 20 percent scenario is de minimus. More importantly, use of the medium BEBR population
projections in conjunction with a 20 percent seasonal adjustment factor is consistent with the
existing population methodology.
('
Community Development and Environmental services
Office of/he Administrator
Exhibit "E"
Agenda Item NO.1 OB
June 10, 2008
Page 70 of 71
OBJECTIONS RECOMMENDATI~NS AND COMMENTS REPORT
FOR
PROPOSED COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
AMENDMENT: 06-lER
COLLIER COUNTY
I. CONSISTENCY WITH RULE 9J~5, FLORIDA ADMINISTRATIVE
,
CODE (F.A.C), & CHAPTER 16f' FLORIDA STATUTES (F.S.)
Introduction: Collier County has submitted 1 package of amendments to implement the
Evaluation and Appraisal Report (EAR). The amendment involves changes to all the
elements of the County's comprehensive plan. No future land use map amendment is
proposed. As noted below, the Department has objections relative to certain fundamental
planning components, including-rhe planning timeframe and population projections.
Clarification of these issues may result in necessary revisions to data and analysis
regarding infrastructure needs and necessary changes to the capital improvements
element. Subsequent to that the Department will then review for compliance with state
requirements. It is important that these fundamental issues be resolved early on to ensure
that any subsequent analysis is based on correct data. The Department has identified the
following objections to the proposed changes.
Capital Improvements Element:
L The EAR-based amendment does not establish a long-term (lO-year or greater)
planning period for the comprehensive plan. Under State law a local
comprehensive plan must include at least two planning periods: one for at least
the first five-year period subsequent to the plan's adoption and one for at least an
overall ten-year period, the combination of which becomes the planning
time frame for the comprehensive plan.
[Chapter 163.3l77(5)(a), & (8) F.S. and Rule 9J-5.005(4), F.A.C]
Recommendation: Revise the amendment to establish the long-term planning
timeframe for the County's comprehensive plan.
2. The EAR-based amendment is not supported by a projected population of the
County for the next planning timeframe, based on a professionally acceptable
methodology, and upon which the land and infrastructure needs of the County
shall be based.
Policy 1.2 establishes the formula that the County will use to calculate public
facility demands. It is stated that the formula uses a "weighted" recalculation of
the population projections made for the County by the University of Florida.
However, the term "weighted" is not defined in the plan; instead, the definition is
deferred to the land development regulations. Because these regulations could be
changed without an amendment to the comprehensive plan, the formula used to
predict the population of the COWlty is unpredictable and unreliable. The
Exhibit "E"
Agenda Item NO.1 OB
June 10, 2008
Page 71 of 71
County's approach is contrary to State law which requires that local governments
use the mid range projections made by the University of Florida, or, use the high
or low range projection if sufficient justifications are presented to support their
use; or make their own projections based a professionally acceptable methodology
approved by the State. The proposed population projection methodology
described in this policy is not professionally acceptable.
[Chapter 163.3 I 77(2), (6)(a), (8), & (IO)(e), F.S. and Rule 9J-5.005(2)(a), (c), &
(e), 9J-5.006(I)g., 9J-5.016(l)(a), (2)(b), FAC]
Recommendation: Include with the amendment a projected population of the
County derived from a professionally acceptable methodology indicating the
population figures upon which the land use and infrastructure needs of the County
will be based during the next planning timeframe. The County should utilize the
mid-range projections made by the University of Florida, and if that will not be
used sufficient justification should be provided for using either the lower range or
high range University of Florida projections. If the County chooses to utilize a
population projection other than the one provided by the University, the
methodology for the projection must be professionally acceptable and approved
by the state land planning agency prior to its application.
The formula for calculating the public facilities needs of the County stated in
Policy 1.2 should be revised to be consistent with the population projections for
the plan as a whole and must not defer certain other aspects to the land
development regulations.
('