Backup Documents 06/25/2019 Item # 5AProject and Science Lead: Peter Sheng, University of Florida (pete@coastal.ufl.edu)
Coordination Lead: Michael Savarese, Florida Gulf Coast University (msavares@fgcu.edu)
Project Manager: David Kidwell, NOAA NOS (David.Kidwell@noaa.gov)
Christine Angelini, Mike Barry, Kevin Buffington, Justin Davis, Felix Jose, Ken Krause,
David Letson,
Vladimir Paramygin, Karen Thorne
Adail Rivera-Nieves, Kun Yang
A Cooperative Agreement (#2624084) with NOAA NCCOS
“A Web-Based Interactive Decision-Support Tool for
Adaptation of Coastal Urban and Natural Ecosystems (ACUNE)
in Southwest Florida”
May 7-8, 2019
ACUNE2.0 Workshop
Many Thanks to RBNERR for providing a nice venue!
We are developing ACUNE to enable Adaption of Coastal Urban and Natural Systems for
A Sustainable & Economically Healthy SW Florida
in the Context of Increasing Future Inundation Risk
Largest Mangrove Forest in
Gulf of Mexico region
Ecosystem Services: Ecosystem Diversity, Fishery Habitat,
Flood Protection
Study Domain
3
>11 ft
Everglades City
Storm Surge (1-28ft) + Tide (0-6ft) + Wave Setup (0-5ft) +
Precipitation (0-4.5ft)+ SLR ( ~1ft, 2ft, 6ft) for (2030, 2060, 2100)
Hurricane
IRMA
(2017)
Maximum
Inundation
Figure 2. Southeast Florida sea level rise projections based on three global curves
adapted for the region: the median of the IPCC AR5 RCP8.5 scenario (dashed blue),
the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) High curve (solid blue), and the NOAA
High curve (orange). From Compact (2015).
Quantify Coastal Inundation Vulnerability due to storm surge, wave, and sea level rise
ACUNE products (ACUNE1.0 products)
•ACUNE is an integrated web-based tool
•Guide end users to develop coastal resiliency plan for flood protection,
estuarine preservation, and mangrove restoration
•ACUNE products:
•Mangrove distribution maps in 2017, 2030, 2060, 2100
•Tropical cyclones for future climate (2030, 2060, 2100)
•Sea Level Rise scenarios (2030, 2060, 2100)
•Probabilistic coastal inundation maps for current and future climate (2030,
2060, 2100)
•Beach impact maps for 2030, 2060, 2100
•Maximum inundation maps and economic impact maps for IRMA
•Economic impact maps for future scenarios
Sample Questions (Case Studies) could be
answered by ACUNE
•What is the 1%annual chance coastal flooding in the communities &infrastructures?
•Where is the best location in the region to build a new airport or an emergency shelter?
•Which highway is the most vulnerable to coastal flooding?
•Which part of Highway 41 will be inundated by 2060?
•How vulnerable is the 5th Avenue South business center to inundation?
•How well do NNBFs protect coastal communities from coastal flooding?
•Timeframe: Current, 2030, 2060, 2100
Feedback on ACUNE1.0
1.Need to forecast the flooding during a hurricane
2.Address the impact on stormwater system
3.Include rainfall and inland flooding
4.Address upland migration of mangrove from now to 2100
5.Use up-to-date SLR estimates
6.Ensure accuracy of DEM topography data
7.Ensure accuracy of vegetation structure data
8.Assess the effects of above factors on the flood maps
9.Update flood maps
10.Assess economic impact
11.Assess the impact of SLR on estuarine salinity
What Happened Since ACUNE1.0?
1. Developed a Rapid Forecasting System (RFS) of coastal flooding –will be
demonstrated
2.3.4. Submitted a new proposal to NOAA –UF,FGCU,UM,USGS,SFWMD –funded!
5. Developed up-to-date SLR scenarios by using RSL instead of GMSL
6. Improved the accuracy of 2007 LiDAR data
7. Analyzed 3D Laser data to produce updated vegetation structure data for modeling
8. Performed a model sensitivity study
9. Updated flood maps
10. Produced economic maps
11. Performed salinity simulations
12. Added many GIS layers of local assets into ACUNE
In addition, we reached out to USACE Norfolk District which is leading a Flood Risk Feasibility Study
for Collier County. During a webinar on January 4, 2019, we briefed them on the details of ACUNE.
They promised to work with us as they proceed with their study.
We also engaged Ben Wilkinson, Asso. Professor of Geomatics, UF who will be conducting LiDAR
survey over the study area and share data with us. Ben is supported by a 5-year NOAA/NGS grant which
is aimed to develop a new vertical datum system which will replace NAVD88.
User creates a hurricane →
Rapid Forecast System generates a map in 1 minute!
Supplement the NHC forecast and provide planning tool.
Rapid Forecasting System (RFS)
A New Track→A New Map in One Minute
Sea Level Rise Scenarios based on NOAA (2017)
ACUNE
1.0
ACUNE
2.0
Period SLR, ft SLR, ft
Low Medium High Low Medium High
Current ------------------
2030 0 0.5 1 0.39 0.72 1.15
2060 0.5 1.5 2.5 0.82 1.77 3.38
2100 1 3 6.6 1.28 3.77 8.36
GMSL (Global Mean Sea Level) RSL (Regional Sea Level)
*Recommended by NOAA
Accepted at workshop
LEAN Correction DEM
•Mean Error: 0.0
(SD=18.9) cm
•RMSE: 18.9 cm
•R2: 0.825
57% accuracy
improvement
Initial Lidar DEM
•Mean Error: 34.3
(SD=28.2) cm
•RMSE: 44.5 cm
•R2: 0.629
LiDAR DEM
•Projects future elevations with
sea-level rise
•Considers dominant below &
above ground processes
•Mangrove community response
•Calibrated with local accretion
data (cores, SETs)
•Requires digital elevation model &
water level data
Preliminary model results expected
by September
WARMER-Mangroves (USGS) (Karen and Kevin)
Soil elevation & mangrove community response model
From WWF, Matt Twombly
Current (2011 NLCD)Future (2100 USGS A1B scenario)
USGS conducted "Conterminous United States Land Cover Projections -1992 to 2100“ for developed areas only.
Han et al. (2018): vegetation in coastal region shows a decreasing trend and inland region shows an increasing trend.
Future vegetation map will be based on the results of Kevin/Karen.
***Does Collier have future land use maps for 2030, 2060, 2100?
Landscape coverage comparison (USGS)
aces.coastal.ufl.edu/acune
A Web-Based Decision Support Tool -ACUNE
Community-Based Asset Mapping
•Engage Collier’s civic leaders in economy, culture, and
social services.
•Sectors: Agri-Business, Health care, Senior Living,
Municipal Gov’t & Related Services, Development &
Real Estate, General Business, Tourism, Education,
Non-Profit.
•SWOT Analysis.
•Asset Identification, Mapping, Prioritization.
•75 persons interviewed; Over 800 assets identified.
•Asset Mapping by City and County Managers.
Asset Layers
Flood map with storm water structures & roads
Flood Maps: Future Climate Flood Maps (2030)
2030 Climate. 0.39ft SLR. 1%2030 Climate. 1.15ft SLR. 1%
PRELIMINARY MAPS
NOT FOR OFFICIAL USE
Future Climate Flood Maps (2060)
2060 Climate. 0.82 ft SLR. 1%2060 Climate. 3.38ft SLR. 1%
PRELIMINARY MAPS
NOT FOR OFFICIAL USE
Economic Analysis with FEMA HAZUS-MH
***Can County provide the building data to us?
Site Specific Flood Loss analysis
SLR: 2100 sea level rise, high, 0.2%
Building Attributes needed are:
•Number of Stories(2)
•First Floor height(4.0688)
•Foundation type (7 slab on grade)
•Occupancy Type (RES1)
•Area(3.12) (thousands of sq.ft.)
•Year built (1982)
•Building value (thousands of USD)
•Location (Lat, Lon, Census tract)
Total Cost of a Test Property: $127.5K
Example Address Building Losses
(thousands of
USD)
Building Percent Damaged Content
Losses
(thousands of
USD)
Content Percent Damaged
75 W Flamingo
Drive Everglades,
City FL
$57.70 45.25 %$26.87 42.15 %
Two Focus Groups are formed to test drive ACUNE2.0
•Science Team sets up a complete ACUNE2.0 website by the end of May
•End Users volunteers to form two FOCUS GROUPS
•Urban system focus group –
•Natural system focus group -
•Focus Groups use ACUNE2.0 to try to answer a variety of questions for two
months;
•Focus Groups report back to Science Team at the end of the testing period with a list
of suggestions on what need to be improved;
•Focus Groups recommend two case studies for the Science Team;
•Science Team improves ACUNE2.0 based on Focus Group suggestions;
•Science Team organize a webinars with updated ACUNE and user training in Fall
2019.
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