Agenda 10/23/2018 Item #11D10/23/2018
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Recommendation to accept an update on sea-level rise planning activities and provide direction
on future actions.
OBJECTIVE: To accept an update for ongoing activities related to Sea-Level Rise (SLR).
CONSIDERATIONS: On June 23, 2015 (Item 10A), the Board of County Commissioners (Board)
initiated a conversation related to SLR, and provided direction to the County Manager to proceed with
data gathering, etc.
On October 11, 2016, staff provided a comprehensive update to the Board, which included additional
working tasks designed to keep the initiative moving forward, identify stakeholders and partners, etc.
Additionally, Collier County (County), the City of Naples, City of Marco Island, and the City of
Everglades joined in support of Florida Gulf Coast University (FGCU), University of Florida (UF),
etc. in their application for a grant from the National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NOAA) for a
3-year study and modeling exercise related to the impacts of SLR and storm surge on Collier County.
The Board approved a Resolution of Support for the project on September 13, 2016. The NOAA grant
was awarded and is currently entering the second year. End User teams have been established and are
actively participating in the study process. These stakeholder groups include staff and elected officials
from local government, and local natural and cultural resource managers, to allow specialized
knowledge and expertise to be communicated.
Building on the important work of the NOAA study, there are several other initiatives currently
underway:
1. Congressman Francis Rooney joined the bi-partisan Climate Solutions Caucus. The caucus is
committed to addressing climate-related threats to the American economy, environment,
infrastructure and national security. Congressman Rooney stated that he joined the caucus
because “environmental issues are critical to our Southwest Florida community…To safeguard
our future, proactive planning is necessary to mitigate effects of rising sea levels and increased
intensity of flooding.” Congressman Rooney is also a member of the NOAA project End User
teams and has endorsed the project.
2. Congressman Rooney has introduced a House Resolution “expressing the sense of the House of
Representatives that sea-level rise and flooding are of urgent concern impacting Florida that
require proactive measures for community planning and the State’s tourism-based economy to
adapt.”
3. Update of the rate of rise adopted in the Floodplain Management Plan - An error in the rate of
rise calculation was identified. This rate establishes a minimum standard for planning of
capital projects and other activities. The accuracy of this number is extremely important as it is
the only locally adopted number related to SLR projections at this time. In 2017, staff worked
cooperatively with Climate Central and the professors from FGCU and UF to correct and
update the rate of rise for 2060. On October 10, 2017 this information was presented to the
Board for concurrence and direction to update the number. The revised number of 1.5 feet by
2060 is consistent with the range being used in the NOAA study for the same period. Staff is
continuing to work through the established process to update the Floodplain Management Plan.
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4. Coastal/Beach Resilience Plan - Work is underway to develop a long-term plan to provide
higher and wider beaches, enhanced dunes and plantings, seawalls and other hardened
protective structures, etc. to lessen the impacts of storm surge combined with the
effects of sea level rise. This effort will be closely coordinated with the ongoing
NOAA study and the future Vulnerability and Adaptation efforts described below.
5. Business Stakeholder Meetings - The NOAA project, under facilitation by Dr. Savarese, is
arranging several business community stakeholder meetings. The purpose of these meetings is
to bring key representatives from a number of business sectors together to address their
concerns related to SLR and storminess and to identify their sector’s critical assets t hat are
potentially at risk as we move through the next few decades. Those assets will be cataloged and
mapped on top of the NOAA project’s modeled scenarios. This will improve the business
community’s planning for economic resilience and health. On October 29 and 30, 2018, two
forums will be held, one for the real estate and real estate development professionals, and a
second for the hotel, health, and education communities. In early 2019, four additional, more
in-depth forums are planned for: agribusiness, education and healthcare, real estate, and
tourism.
6. Vulnerability Assessment - Beginning in Year 2 of the NOAA study efforts will commence on
a Vulnerability Assessment for Collier County. This study will help to define and provide an
understanding of the effects of hazardous events. This effort will initially focus on SLR and
storm surge but may form a basis for future analysis of other types of natural and man-made
disasters. This effort will consider the impacts of SLR and storm surge on both the constructed
and natural environments, including critical infrastructure, habitats, affected land uses,
population, etc. This type of assessment often includes tasks related to exposure analysis
(where will SLR occur), sensitivity analysis (who and what will be affected) and focus areas
(where critical infrastructure is located, and/or highly affected population resides). Other tasks
and supporting analysis may also be included in the Vulnerability Assessment, including public
outreach.
7. Adaptation Planning - Scope of Work for future Request for Proposal (RFP) - Dr. Savarese,
along with Collier County staff, representatives from the municipalities and representatives
from natural and cultural resource management agencies will be working together to dr aft a
scope of services for a future RFP for a comprehensive Adaptation Planning effort. This work
will ultimately incorporate and address the findings of the Vulnerability Assessment and will
provide strategies in the areas of comprehensive planning, land development, codes, laws,
infrastructure planning, financial and economic modeling, etc. to implement actions to adapt to
the challenges of SLR and storm surge. This study will provide a framework for greater
community resilience and long-term adaptation strategies. This study will also utilize and build
from the findings and tools provided by the NOAA study. Estimated timeframe to complete
scope and begin solicitation for RFP is late Spring of 2019.
8. Discussions and proposed working group for the establishment of a Southwest Florida
Regional Compact - There have been ongoing conversations related to the viability of forming
a compact on the west coast of Florida similar to the Southeast Florida Regional Climate
Change Compact, formed in 2010. In 2016, the Board supported the concept of continuing
conversations with local municipalities, neighboring Southwest Florida communities and
partnering governmental agencies regarding strategies, partnerships, planning efforts, etc.
related to sea-level rise. On September 27, 2018, staff attended “Planning for the Future Effects
of Sea-Level Rise: A Forum to Discuss Southwest Florida’s Preparedness” on behalf of the
County Manager’s Office, hosted by Florida Gulf Coast University. The forum was attended
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by members of the State Legislature, Congressional representation, local elected officials and
staff from Charlotte, Lee, and Collier Counties, and local municipalities. The conversation
focused on vulnerability, adaptation and mitigation, preparedness, constituent and local
government concerns, cooperation and ways to move forward, etc. and included a presentation
by Dr. Jennifer Jurado, Director and Chief Resiliency Officer, Broward County, who provided
an overview of the history of Southeast Florida Regional Compact, public outreach, current
happenings with the Compact and the upcoming Summit. Dr. Jurado extended an offer to
schedule a workshop with stakeholders to discuss the process of building a Compact. This
workshop will also include participation by other team members that have had an active role in
the establishment and success of the Southeast Florida Regional Compact. In accordance with
Board direction, staff remains engaged in this process and will participate fully in upcoming
events and provide status updates to the County Manager.
FISCAL IMPACT: There is no immediate funding request or obligation related to this item. These
activities are currently being resourced with existing staff within the Capital Project Planning, Impact
Fees and Program Management Division of the Growth Management Department. However, as this
process evolves additional staff resources and funding for related planning activities and studies may be
required. Further staff anticipates an update to the Board in early 2019 rel ated to the RFP for
Adaptation Planning, including a funding strategy and request for that effort.
GROWTH MANAGEMENT IMPACT: There is no growth management impact related to this
request at this time.
LEGAL CONSIDERATIONS: This item has been reviewed by the County Attorney, raises no legal
issues, and requires majority vote for acceptance. -JAK
RECOMMENDATION: To accept the status report on planning activities and information related to
sea level rise and direct the County Manager to continue to facilitate conversations on a regional
partnership.
Prepared by: Amy Patterson, Director, Capital Project Planning, Impact Fees and Program
Management Division
ATTACHMENT(S)
1. Sea Level Rise Planning Activities Update v2 (PPTX)
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COLLIER COUNTY
Board of County Commissioners
Item Number: 11.D
Doc ID: 7048
Item Summary: ***This item to be heard at 10:00 a.m.*** Recommendation to accept an update
on sea-level rise planning activities and provide direction on future actions. (Amy Patterson, Director,
Capital Project Planning, Impact Fees and Program Management Division)
Meeting Date: 10/23/2018
Prepared by:
Title: Senior Grants and Housing Coordinator – Capital Project Planning, Impact Fees, and Program
Management
Name: Gino Santabarbara
10/15/2018 9:45 AM
Submitted by:
Title: Division Director - IF, CPP & PM – Capital Project Planning, Impact Fees, and Program
Management
Name: Amy Patterson
10/15/2018 9:45 AM
Approved By:
Review:
Capital Project Planning, Impact Fees, and Program Management Amy Patterson Additional Reviewer Completed 10/15/2018 9:47 AM
Growth Management Department Judy Puig Level 1 Reviewer Completed 10/15/2018 9:57 AM
Growth Management Department Gino Santabarbara Deputy Department Head Review Skipped 10/15/2018 9:45 AM
Growth Management Department Jeanne Marcella Department Head Review Completed 10/15/2018 10:33 AM
County Attorney's Office Jeffrey A. Klatzkow Level 3 County Attorney's Office Review Completed 10/15/2018 10:37 AM
County Attorney's Office Emily Pepin CAO Preview Completed 10/15/2018 11:53 AM
Office of Management and Budget Valerie Fleming Level 3 OMB Gatekeeper Review Completed 10/15/2018 1:16 PM
Budget and Management Office Mark Isackson Additional Reviewer Completed 10/15/2018 1:27 PM
County Manager's Office Leo E. Ochs Level 4 County Manager Review Completed 10/16/2018 3:19 PM
Board of County Commissioners MaryJo Brock Meeting Pending 10/23/2018 9:00 AM
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Sea Level Rise Planning
Activities Update
CAPITAL PROJECT PLANNING, IMPACT FEES, PROGRAM MANAGEMENT DIVISION
GROW TH MANAGEMENT DEPARTMENT
OCTOBER 23, 2018
AMY PATTERSON, DIRECTOR
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Packet Pg. 342 Attachment: Sea Level Rise Planning Activities Update v2 (7048 : Sea-Level Rise Update)
NOAA Grant
A Web-Based Interactive Decision-Support Tool for
Adaptation of Coastal Urban and Natural Ecosystems
(ACUNE) in Southwest Florida
•Ye ar 1 –complete, entering Year 2
•Collaborative Working Group of End-Users
•Broad support and participation from:
•Natural Resource Managers
•Local Governmental Agencies
•State and Federal Agencies
•Elected Officials
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Packet Pg. 343 Attachment: Sea Level Rise Planning Activities Update v2 (7048 : Sea-Level Rise Update)
Congressional Support
•Federal Legislative support is essential:
•Congressman Francis Rooney is a member of the NOAA project End-User team and has endorsed
the project
•Recently joined the Climate Solutions Caucus
•Introduced a House Resolution related to sea-level rise and flooding impacting Florida and the need
for proactive measures
•Supports the efforts to explore the establishment of a Southwest Florida Regional Compact
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Packet Pg. 344 Attachment: Sea Level Rise Planning Activities Update v2 (7048 : Sea-Level Rise Update)
Floodplain Management Plan-
Rate of Rise
•Correction of error in adopted rate of rise
•Utilizing 1.5 feet by 2060 for consistency with NOAA
project
•Sets minimum standard for capital project planning
•Decision making tool related to useful life and cost
•Monitoring for needed updates to number based on new
guidance
•Changing and evolving science
•Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
convenes in 2019 to publish new projections
in feet in meters
Projection 2030 2060 2100 2030 2060 2100
2015 Collier County FMP 0.3 0.9 2.5 0.08 0.29 0.76
Corrected FMP 0.6 1.6 3.5 0.19 0.49 1.08
Kopp –Low 0.4 0.9 1.5 0.12 0.28 0.47
Kopp –Central 0.6 1.4 2.8 0.19 0.44 0.85
Kopp –High 0.9 2.0 4.4 0.27 0.62 1.34
Kopp –99th percentile 1.0 2.4 5.7 0.30 0.73 1.74
Extreme n/a n/a 10.4 3.18
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Packet Pg. 345 Attachment: Sea Level Rise Planning Activities Update v2 (7048 : Sea-Level Rise Update)
Floodplain Management Plan-
Rate of Rise
Figure 1. Collier County 2015 Floodplain Management Plan sea-level-rise projections and recommended new guidance from Kopp et al.
(2014), all from a 1992 zero baseline. Low, central and high scenarios from Kopp correspond to 5th, 50th and 95th percentiles of the unchecked pollution
scenario (RCP 8.5). Extreme scenario with major early-onset Antarctic ice loss not shown.
0
1
2
3
4
5
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100Sea level rise (ft)2015 FMP Corrected FMP Kopp - Lower
Kopp - Central Kopp - Upper
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Packet Pg. 346 Attachment: Sea Level Rise Planning Activities Update v2 (7048 : Sea-Level Rise Update)
Beach/Coastal Resilience
Major Long-term Planning, Engineering and Construction Projects to
provide:
•Higher and wider beaches
•Enhanced dunes and plantings
•Seawalls and other hardened protective structures
•Closely coordinated with ongoing NOAA Study and future Vulnerability
Assessment and Adaptation Planning
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Packet Pg. 347 Attachment: Sea Level Rise Planning Activities Update v2 (7048 : Sea-Level Rise Update)
Business Stakeholders
•Purpose:
•Discuss concerns related to SLR and storms
•Identify risks
•Planned workshops for October 29 and 30, 2018
•Real estate development and real estate development professionals
•Hotel, Health and Education Communities
•Additional in-depth forums in early 2019 for:
•Agribusiness
•Education and Healthcare
•Real Estate
•To urism
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Packet Pg. 348 Attachment: Sea Level Rise Planning Activities Update v2 (7048 : Sea-Level Rise Update)
Vu lnerability Assessment
•Initial focus on Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge
•Emphasis on:
•Where effects may occur
•Who is affected
•What infrastructure and populations are the focus
8
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Packet Pg. 349 Attachment: Sea Level Rise Planning Activities Update v2 (7048 : Sea-Level Rise Update)
Adaptation Planning
•Estimated date for solicitation through RFP –Spring 2019
•Builds from the Vulnerability Assessment
•Goal to utilize findings and tools from the NOAA study
•Provides strategies related to :
•Comprehensive Planning
•Land Development Code
•Laws and Ordinances
•Infrastructure Planning
•Financial and economic modeling
9
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Packet Pg. 350 Attachment: Sea Level Rise Planning Activities Update v2 (7048 : Sea-Level Rise Update)
Southwest Florida Regional Compact!
•Renewed conversations on forming a Southwest Florida
Regional Compact
•Similar to the Southeast Florida Regional Compact
•Ve ry active and successful in sea level rise and climate change
activities
•Offer extended by Southeast Compact representatives to schedule a
workshop to discuss the Compact process
•Advantageous for our Region to leverage resources, combine
planning efforts, share knowledge, etc.
•Consistent with 2016 direction by the Board of County
Commissioners to continue partnership conversations with
neighboring communities and governmental agencies.
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