Agenda 04/12/2011 Item # 9G
4/12/2011 Item 9.G.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
2010 Census for Lee, Collier and Hendry Counties
OBJECTIVE: To obtain an accurate count from the U.S. Census Bureau
CONSIDERATIONS: Local residents were hired by the Federal Government to count,
but not limited to; full time residents, seasonal residents, migrants, homeless residents and
housing units. It's being alleged that top u.s. Census officials demanded that local census
takers change the seasonal units to vacant units. The vacancy numbers were reported on
major media outlets in the nation.
This led to a false conclusion by some, that Southwest Florida has more foreclosures than
anticipated. This misleading and negative image will hinder our economic recovery.
Furthermore, these same faults in the census are being used by County Staff and could
resort in building unnecessary infrastructure. Concerns are being raised by the local
Realtors Association. (Naples Daily News article, attached as exhibit D.)
Local census takers demanded from higher level staff to provide in writing the "new"
instructions. (Exhibit A.)
Exhibit B shows what was instructed during training vs. the "new" instructions on how to
count seasonal units, Also, see letter from Supervisor Mary Casanova to Regional Director
George Grandy. (Exhibit C.)
Public speakers that have vast knowledge and were involved in this process may need more
than 3 minutes for the Board and the Public to know what took place during the 20]0
census in Southwest Florida.
COMMISSIONER: Tom Henning, District 3
FISCAL IMPACT: NONE
LEGAL CONSIDERATIONS:
RECOMMENDATION: For the Chairman of the Board to write to the Congressional
Delegation requesting a Federal investigation and direct the County Attorney to send a
challenge to the Census Bureau requesting a recount.
PREPARED BV: Commissioner Tom Henning, District 3
AGENDA DATE: April 12, 20]]
Packet Page -777-
COLLIER COUNTY
Board of County Commissioners
Item Number: 9.G.
Item Summary: 2010 Census Count for Lee, Collier and Hendry Counties
(Commissioner Henning)
Meeting Date: 4/12/2011
4/12/2011 Item 9.G.
Prepared By
Name: Evelyn Prieto
Title: Executive Aide to the BCC,
4/6/20] 1 2:37:09 PM
Approved By
Name: Ian Mitchcll
Title: Executive Manager, BCC
Date: 4/6/201] 2:47:35 PM
Name: OchsLeo
Title: County Manager
Date: 4/6/2011 4:09:02 PM
Packet Page -778-
~
4/12/2011 Item 9.G.
EXHIBIT A
Seasonal Home Procedures
Based on the NRFU enumerator manual which was read to you on Friday
7/16/2010 during the conference call with the F05's and Crew Leaders, chapter 6
Topic 8, page 6-18, paragraph 3 which states:
When the NRFU address is an occupied housing unit. alwavs begin bv asking an
adult household member Question 51, which is the question where you introduce
yourself and verify they you have located the correct address. Then read
Question 52. If the person with whom yOU are speaking answers "ves" to 52,
continue to 53. If the answer to 53 is "Vacation or seasonal home or held for
occasional use," yOU have just learned that yOU are at a housing unit in which all
the household members have a usual home elsewhere (UHE). The Census Bureau
refers to this hOUSing unit situation as a "Whole Household Usual Home
Elsewhere."
The operative part ofthat paragraph is contained in the first sentence, where it
states you are speaking to an adult household member. If you are speaking to a
Proxy the statement in that sentence does not apply and therefore is not listed as
a UHE in Section A of the interview summary. However, it will still be listed as
"For seasonal, recreational or occasional use" in section B of the interview
summary.
With this in mind you are to mark "Vacant- regular" whenever you are speaking to
a Proxy regarding a UHE. Only if you are speaking to an actual household member
do you mark UHE.
As regards Question 52, we have been told the way they want that answered
when dealing with a UHE and speaking to a Proxy is to answer no skip to Question
54, mark vacant, in the interview summary mark vacant-regular in section A and
for seasonal, recreational or occasional use in section B.
Packet Page -779-
4/12/2011 Item 9.G.
EXHIBIT B
INSTRUCTION GIVEN TO THE CENUS EMPLOYESS
Basic principle is that the Enumerator is to read the questions as written on the EQ, and mark the EQ
according to the answers given by the Respondent who is the homeowner or a knowledgeable proxy (a
proxy can be a neighbor, building manager, realtor. etc. -- someone who has knowledge ofthe status of
the unit on April J, 20] 0.) The Enumerator is NOT to coach the Respondent into answering a certain
way. and the manual clearly states that the Enumerator is NOT to make a predctermination about the unit.
The two new rules change the following:
(1) Asking Question S2 in a way that can get only ONE answer, which is always hNo."
(2) Recording Item A as Vacant-Regular, even if the Proxy-Respondent clcarly stated that the unit
is Seasonal and the owner has a Usual Home Elsewhere.
AS TAIIGHT IN TIlE MANUAL
The Enumerator identifies himself/herself and
confirms they are talking about a pal1icular address
(Quc;tion S I ), Fur this example. the Enumerator is
,
t;tlling to a neighbor about a house next door ~
where no one has answered the door.
The EnLJm~ra-;;)r id;:;;ti-f,es himself'l;~rself and------
, confirms they are lJlking about a p3rticular address I
I (QuC.-)tiOll S] l. For this example. the Enumerator
is talking to a neighbor about a hOllse next door '
I wht're no one 11J.s 3n5\\-~red the door.
,
'--- ___ ___ - __un
I OucstiOl1 S=-. the Enumerator hands a
c~onfidcl1li::dil: lll,tici.:' to the Respondent with a
bricC \'crb:-nim explanation as written on the EQ
and asks 1h...: question. slightly reworded. so that it
makes sensc \\hen talking \\'jth a proxy: Did
someouc in THAT household live or stay
THERE on April!, 20W?
(Rt-'\\'Ordillg !he question is C01'fTCd OJl Page 5-1-1
! in fll(' _\RFC !~'Jll(llh:r({ior Jlafluu/ l111d illll10re
i dc:!ai! (In i\!:.'.cJ- - o{lhe .\RFC" GuidL' Ii!!"
I Trail7h/';!,.'j .. .
nYtf~-c R~'''lklJld~.~~t-;~;;~~~rs ()~estion ~S2 and t~I-I~---TI- f3-ec~L1sc, t~K<~;-ro:\y-nejghbOl~ did l1ot-jivc (lr-~t~)~~
the E11uIllcrah1r "'Yes, the housing unit )las , the NRI-[;-\ IX address rot course']. the answer IS
!I Occupied 011 April I. ::'0 I 0:' the~ the Enumeralor ! ,,1"'/1's "'No'" Skip to Question S4 as the EQ says. i
\\.ill check the "Yes" box in Question S2. and mOH." I and mark 54 "Vacant." J
i on 10 Question S3. !
~_",_n ___ m______________ _ _"'~ _ ___ ,__ _______
I In Question S3, the Enumerator asks: Does Hy answering 52 "No." Question S3 is completely I
i someone usually live at TH.~ T Qvoided. and the Enumcrator ncvcr asks it to the
I (house/apartm~nt/mobile home), or is this a pi "'0 -Re,pondent about the \ acant hOllse
vacatiou or seasonal home? '1 lie Respondent has ,
~he 0(11](\n Cd'f('pl) illg to the 1\\ II options' LTsually I
lives here. . or. Vacation or seasonal honlc or
---- -----~------~------
: NEW RULES
i
--1NC\~'-R-I;le: We arc lold to read Question S2
, LXACTL Y as written on the EQ: Did YOU or
au)'one iu THIS household live or stay here on
April],20]0.
[Not on]y docs thi:; not make sense to the
H.t'SpollJcnt if read H:"rhatim, it makes the
Enumerator look like an idiot!]
Packet Page -780-
held for occasional use.
(Again covered on Page 5-14 of [he NRFU Enum
Manual and .I-Iof [he NRFU Guide for Training.)
I f the Respondent says it is a Seasoual home
(VERY common here in SW Florida), thcn no
further infonnation is needed about the vacationing
owners/family. The Enumerator simply goes to the
last pagc of the EQ and records the name, address,
and phone number of the person with whom he/she
spoke,
Then the Enumerator concludes with the Interview
Summary section. In this example, the
Respondent had plainly said that the housing unit in
question was SEASONAL, but yes the family
WAS there on April 1. The Enumerator would
mark Item A as "Vacant - Usual Home
Elsewhere," because the people are NOT
COUNTED IN THEIR V ACA TION HOME; they
will be counted in their usual home up NOIih or
elsewhere (and we don't want to double-count
them).
(This is covered at the hol1om (?f Page 6- J 8 in the
NRFU EnulIl kfanual.)
4/12/2011 Item 9.G.
Then mark Item A on the back as "Vacant-
Regular."
(The new rule is based on Page 6-18, middle of the
page, where the example given in the manual is an
Enumerator talking to an adult household member
in their own Scasonal home. Therefore, they said
we can mark Scasonal-Usual Home Elsewhere
ONL Y when speaking with a homeowner.)
[First, we were given an update to CROSS OUT
THE ENTIRE TOPIC 8 which includes Page 6-18.
However, the D-l 061 Training Guide, Page C- ] 0,
fUliher explains that, in VDC, thc part we do not
use is that we are NOT to take info on a blank EQ
about their usual home elsewhere in another state.
as we did in NRFU. Second. in the sweltering hcat
, of summer in Florida, you will almos[ never find
someone in their Seasonal home here. The only
way to get info on a vacant-seasonal unit is to talk
with apro).T who lives in FL year-round. Just
because we talk with a proxy does not change the
fact that the house is for seasonal use on Iv.)
, DEFINITION of Vacant-Regular from manual
Glossary: "A housing unit that is intended for
year-round occupancy and not occupied on
, Census Day.
DEFNITION of Vacant-Usual Home Elsewhere
from manual Glossary: "A housing unit that is
inteuded to be occupied for seasonal or
occasional use only. It may be occupied by
persons with a usual residence elsewhere at the
time oflhe NRFU enumerator's contact.
-_._-~~ -~--
The Enumerator ASKS the question in Item B: Same
Which catcgOl)' best describes this vacant unit as of !
. April!, 2010. and READS ALL TilE I'OSS1I3LE I [Again, not making sense. the new rule is to mark
ANSWERS. Again, thc Respondent has the . Regular in Item A and Seasonal in Itcm B-
oppot1unity to say: For seasonal, recreation or contradictory telll1s!]
occasional use.
The Enumerator marks Itc.m C as "00" (no peOPle)J' same
because, as already stated. we do not count people
in their vacation home.
L_ ______ _
Packet Page -781-
4/12/2011 Item 9.G.
The Enumerator completes the Certilication same
Section by signing his/her name, Employee ID
number, and the date.
When the EQ is turned in to the Crcw Leader. the i same
CL reviews it, initials it, and writes the CLD 1
number and date.
Complete. , After EQs were certilied and signed by
I Enumerators and Crew Leader Assistants, Crew
I eaders were ,erbally told to ERASE the box
I marked Vacant-Usual I-]ome Elsewhere and instead
I mark the box Vacant-Regular.
I
! DEFINITION of Falsification: The deliberate act
of entering false infonl1ation on census fonl1s,
I' inclnding EOs and payroll forms. Falsification is
, not tolerated by the Census Bureau and is grounds
i for immediate temlination of employment.
I' RESULT: In the one dav (Julv 16) that I was able
to (l('f/w!zr count ho\v many EQs we had changed,
it was 5.t percent ufthe total day's workload for
our FOSD.
,
1-
Packet Page -782-
4/12/2011 Item 9.G.
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LS Census Bureau
23) Peach1ree Cenler A\:c NE
:\tlallla, Ga. 30303
Attn: George Grandy
Reo'ional Director
'"
July :::0. 2010
On July 14,2010, David Scariana (AMEO) blOught me some EQ's and instructed me to
ha\'o my CL's change them from VaC:illl- usual home elsewhere to \'acant regular.
Later ('''a' "I'D" a'e;' ll","d d er'I""'"'''d "111""0' C"'"I''' t.) lO"'a'l 'l',.,.s;,." \'LC'O'I) r".,..,.elll'"
. 11 l J(" ~ u l...d . ....1.... (L .L.h..l - .,V.l.. ..11 I.. i...l. ........ ~d't ," 1\. ....'O..d.....l ~o
my cotl(:crn about the penalties for falsii\ing dma/in1unnmioll he tuid me he \'v'ould look
into it Clad let me knnv".
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1 expre~sed that v,d:at they w.,:;re telling us \va~ indeed incofr-c-::t and th:tt I did not ~tgrce
with l!!t"m. 1 \V~S iold b~/ the ":'.Alr'O ih::!! ! did not have to agree lju:-:t had 10 (k~ 11 apel if
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Packet Page -783-
4/12/2011 Item 9.G.
box for the answer. Do not make predetermination of the vacancy status, you must read
the categories listed in item B and allow the respondent the most appropriate vacancy
status. In other words we must ask question B before we can determine the answer to
question A It clearly states not to make predetermination in our case we are not even
asking. The LCO has made that determination from the office not the field, what ever
happen "from ground to paper?" When asked why were doing this? A logical question,
were told that it did not matter why, we are not adding people, regardless it was vacant in
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Packet Page -784-
4/12/2011 Item 9.G.
Your prompt attention to this matter is greatly appreciated.
Sincerely,
Mary Casanova
FOSD 6 LCO 2927 (Ft. Myers)
PS: Please find attached the written procedures foan the LCO regarding these changes.
Packet Page -785-
Census leader, workers say vacancy rates don't reflect trend in housing market PHOl 4/12/2011 Item 9. G.
naplesnews.com
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Read morc at naplosnews_com
Census leader, workers say vacancy rates
don't reflect trend in housing market PHOTOS
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S'j'iC3y f'.;(J:::!,27 :::OC1; 1
NAPLES - Don't call It a comeback - yet.
There's debate over whether the real estate bounce that Southwest Florida agents
have been touting Is happening now or if it's actually more than a year away.
Data recently released by the U.S. Census Bureau from the 2010 Census fueled the
debate when Lee and Collier counties showed up with housing vacancy rates that far
surpass the state average.
The 2010 Census found that of the 197,298 housing units in Collier County, a total of
64,119 - or 32.5 percent - were vacant. Meanwhile. of fhe 371,099 housing units in
Lee County, the Census found that a total of 111.281 - or 30 percent - were vacant.
Fiorida's overall numbers were better. with 1.5 miliion - 17.5 percent - of the state's
8.98 million housing units vacant.
The vacancy numbers were picked up by national media outlets, which noted that Lee
had the highest vacancy rate among Florida's 10 largest counties.
But a top Census official. former Census supervisors in Southwest Florida and a leader
in the Naples real estate industry all raised questions about some of the conclusions
being rea~hed in media reports.
U.S. Census Bureau Director Robert M. Groves wrote in a February blog that the data
was being used out-of-context by some in the news media.
'We delivered counts of total housing units and counts of vacant housing units," he
wrote. "However, the total vacant count includes units intended for rent or for sale,
units intended for seasonal, recreational or occasional use, units for migratory workers
(a small number). and other vacant units that did not fit into these categories" because
they are held off the market for personal reasons of the owner.
Groves wrote that using the count of the number of vacancies. which includes
seasonal, recreational or occasional'use vacant units, can mislead a person who
hup://www.nap1csnews.comlnews/201I1maPacket Page -786- y-rates-lee-col1ier-housing-... 3/28/2011
Census leader, workers say vacancy rates don't reflect trend in housing market PHOl 4/12/2011 Item 9.G.
wants to measure the effects of the housing crisis on an area.
"Seasonal, recreational, or occasional vacant houses were prevalent in April 2010,
especially in resort areas where there are cottages, condominiums and homes that are
used only during the given tourist season," Groves said of the month that Census
takers used to document the status of a housing unit.
Naples resident Mary Casanova, a field operations supervisor for the U.S. Census,
noted that she had stated in a Daily News article last year that some of the numbers
collected in Southwest Florida were later changed to increase the number of
completely vacant units.
"We were falsifying the information," Casanova said.
Last year, Casanova and David Kaiser, another former field operations supervisor,
reported their concerns to U.S. Census officials about instructions given by superiors in
July 2010 to classify what would be "vacant seasonal" properties as "vacant regular."
They were told to erase the answers given to them and change them on the survey
over the course of about nine days of data collection, thus falsely claiming about
10,000 properties as totally vacant, Kaiser said.
'This made us the worst case in the entire country. The worst place to buy a house,"
Kaiser said.
The estimate of 32 percent of homes empty in COllier is based on false data, he said.
He fears what the effect might be of national news reports, such as a CNN Money
article that quoted a housing market analyst for Moody's Analytics that the Naples
housing market won't fully bounce back until the late 2030s.
Kaiser said that just looks to wrongly scare away current owners. new buyers and
commerce.
Brenda Fioretti, president of the Naples Area Board of Realtors, suggested the high
vacancy numbers might be due to the fact that Naples is a big second-home
community and that the Census might have counted those homes as vacant.
"It (the numbers) seemed skewed to us," she said.
Marci Seamples. vice president of communications of the Greater Naples Chamber of
Commerce, cited other estimates of the housing recovery from the recession.
"Nationwide, the S&P believes it will take at least 3.5 years to soak up foreclosure
properties alone. A decline in asset value, a need for liquidity in investments and
uncertainty in one's employment future in the wake of the recession could make
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Census leader, workers say vacancy rates don't reflect trend in housing market PHOl 4/12/2011 Item 9. G.
anyone think twice before purchasing a home, even at lowered pricing," Seamples
wrote in an em ail.
The public can expect reports from the 2010 Census in the future that will show the
vacancy status for all vacant housing units and which also will show whether occupied
units were owned or rented, Groves wrote in his Census Bureau blog.
Seamples and Fioretti agreed that Collier is working its way back up.
"Our market has picked up tremendously,"' Fioretti said, adding that in the past year the
Board of Realtors has seen a 10 percent increase in the median sale price of single-
family homes. "Our prices are actually going up. Inventory is the lowest it has been in
three years."'
Fioretti said that in March roughly 9,200 homes were for sale in Collier, a drop from the
12,440 on the market in March 2007.
Collier County government staff is closely paying attention to the trend.
"I've been telling the (commission) for awhile that when the economy turns and these
vacant units get picked up, we are going to see a significant increase in demand for
infrastructure and public services,"' said Nick Casalanguida, Collier County's deputy
administrator for the Growth Management Division.
The interest in the housing market is showing. he said.
''I'm starting to see it. Our front counter has started to see it. Our planning section has
started to see it,"' Casalanguida said. 'We're off the bottom and starting to show signs
that things are getting a little bit better."'
_ Staff Writer Kelly Farrell contributed to this report
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@2011 Scripps Ne\"Vspaoer Group ~- Oniine
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