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Backup Documents 01/23/2018 Item #11C
Collier County Interactive Growth Model (CIGM) January 23, 2018 Dr. Paul Van Buskirk, P.E., AICP David Farmer, P.E., AICP What is the CIGM Ver 3? CIGM is a Proactive Planning Tool •The CIGM Ver 3 is a powerful, proactive planning and growth management tool that forecasts when and where development (i.e. housing units, population, household size, vacancy rate) will take place for each, of 783 zones (TAZs), in which the county is divided into and forecasted in 5 year increments to build out. •It can identify deficiencies in land use regulations and forecast economic trends. What is the CIGM Ver 3? A Proactive Planning Tool •It can be programmed to predict the need for and timing of commercial centers, schools, parks, fire stations, and utility expansions in order to optimize the return on public capital investments. •It can demonstrate alternative growth scenarios and their impacts (i.e. changes in the regulations of the RFMUD, RLSA). What is the CIGM Ver 3? •Housing and population •Commercial •Parks •Fire Stations •Sheriff Sub-stations •Libraries •Hotel/Motels •Industrial •Water/Utilities •Stormwater/ Impervious Area •Schools The CIGM Ver 3 has several sub models: Collier County Inflection Point 2000 2020 2040 Benefits of the CIGM •Tool for the analysis of Comp Plan Amendments •Common Data Bank •Received National Recognition Article Publish in Planning Magazine Consequences of Inaccurate Forecasts How accurate forecasting affects optimal return on public capital investments: Housing Net Growth Summary F-00 Housing and Population Report Copyright© 2015 Metro Forecasting Models, LLC. All rights reserved. No reproduction or copy, whole or in part, without express written permission from Metro Forecasting Models, LLC MFM Cape Coral 2015 Report Summary Zone 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035 TAZ2596 25 21 17 13 14 11 9 7 TAZ2597 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TAZ2598 33 25 20 15 11 9 6 5 TAZ2599 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TAZ2600 19 15 13 9 0 1 0 1 TAZ2601 8 6 5 4 0 0 0 0 TAZ2602 6 6 4 4 4 3 4 2 TAZ2603 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TAZ2604 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 TAZ2605 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 TAZ2606 70 72 74 70 0 0 0 0 TAZ2607 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TAZ2609 19 16 14 12 0 0 0 0 TAZ2610 17 15 12 10 0 0 0 0 TAZ2611 20 18 15 12 0 0 0 0 TAZ2612 50 41 31 25 27 26 24 21 SINGLE FAMILY MULTIFAMILY Housing Units added in 5 year increments Housing Units added in 5 year increments Common Data Bank Shared data bank for all departments and agencies for optimal economic efficiency National Recognition IGM is nationally recognized by APA Future Workshops MEETINGS and TASKS DECEDMBER JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH APRIL May-July TASKS 1. Bassline, Buildout, Clusters, Scenario Constants 2. Population and Housing Model, Commercial Sub model, Industrial Sub Model 3. Government Sub Models -Schools, Parks, Fire, Police, Library 4. Hotel/Motel, Utility and Storm Water Sub Models 5. Review IGM Data Results and Alternate Scenarios to test Policy Proposed Changes MEETINGS Orientation Task 1 Task 2 Task 3 Task 4 Task 5 Metro Forecasting Models December 2017 Dave@metroforecasting.com 239-913-6949 Metroforecasting.com tic Ann P. Jennejohn From: JenkinsAnita <Anita.Jenkins@colliercountyfl.gov> Sent: Wednesday, January 24, 2018 10:39 AM To: Minutes and Records Cc: BosiMichael;VanLengenKris; Patricia L. Morgan Subject: RE: 01/23/2018 Item#11C (GGAMP) Attachments: BCC 2018 01 23 GGAMP.pptx; BCC 2018 01 23 GGAMP.pdf As requested, please find attached the GGAMP presentation in both PowerPoint and PDF format. Respectfully, Anita Jenkins,AICP Principle Planner Cots County Zoning Division NOTE:Email Address Has Changed 2800 N.Horseshoe Dr.,Naples,FL 34104 Phone:(239)252-8288 Cell:(239)478-3701 From: Patricia L. Morgan [mailto:patricia.morgan@collierclerk.com] On Behalf Of Minutes and Records Sent:Tuesday,January 23, 2018 2:59 PM To: BosiMichael ;JenkinsAnita ;VanLengenKris Cc: Minutes and Records Subject: RE: 01/23/2018 Item#11C (GGAMP) Anita and Kris, Please also forward your PP sections for Item #11C to: minutesandrecords@collierclerk.com . Thank you, Trish From: Patricia L. Morgan Sent:Tuesday,January 23, 2018 2:24 PM To: BosiMichael<Michael.Bosi@colliercountyfl.gov> Cc: Minutes and Records<MinutesandRecords@collierclerk.com> Subject:01/23/2018 Item #11C (GGAMP) Good Afternoon Mike, 1 11c Please provide our office at: minutesandrecords@collierclerk.com a copy of the PowerPoint Presentation that you presented at the BCC meeting this afternoon. Thank you, Trish Trish Morgan, BMR Director Clerk to the Board &VAB Board Minutes& Records Dept. 239-252-8399 Phone 239-252-8408 Fax Please visit us on the web at www.collierclerk.com This electronic communication is confidential and may contain privileged information intended solely for the named addressee(s). It may not be used or disclosed except for the purpose for which it has been sent. If you are not the intended recipient, you must not copy, distribute or take any action induced by or in reliance on information contained in this message. Unless expressly stated, opinions in this message are those of the individual sender and not of the Office of the Clerk of the Circuit Court of Collier County. If you have received this communication in error, please notify the Clerk's Office by emailing helpdesk@coiiiercierk.com quoting the sender and delete the message and any attached documents.The Collier County Clerk's Office accepts no liability or responsibility for any onward transmission or use of emails and attachments having left the CollierClerk.com domain. Under Florida Law, e-mail addresses are public records. If you do not want your e-mail address released in response to a public records request, do not send electronic mail to this entity. Instead, contact this office by telephone or in writing. Under Florida Law, e-mail addresses are public records. If you do not want your e-mail address released in response to a public records request, do not send electronic mail to this entity. Instead, contact this office by telephone or in writing. 2 )3#7aift _. ltttM 0 O z omemilit cv C' V J . 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