Backup Documents 10/10/2017 Item # 5DDrs. Peter Sheng & Michael Savarese
University of Florida / Florida Gulf Coast University
Report on a Cooperative Agreement with NOAA NCCOS
started on June 1, 2017: An Overview of the Project
Preparing for Sustainable & Economically Healthy Urban and Natural
Systems in the Context of Increasing Future Inundation Risk
Board of Collier County Commissioners Presentation
October 10, 2017
NOAA-NCCOS Project: Introduction
•Project title “A Web-based Interactive Decision-support Tool for Adaptation of Coastal Urban and Natural Ecosystems (ACUNE) in Southwest Florida.
•A 3-year project funded at $995,487.
•RESTORE Act, Deepwater Horizon settlement monies. Not subject to budget cut.
•Not your typical science award! Scientific tools for decision makers.
•The proposal’s success . . . Our robust science and strong collaboration with urban and natural resource planners and elected officials.
•Our thanks to the County Commission, the City Councils of Naples and Marco Island, Managers of State & Federal Lands, and the Collier League of Women Voters.
•Our community’s approach should be 3 phased: (1) use the best available science to generate the possible scenarios of environmental effects; (2) employ the best actionable science to develop a viable plan(s) for adaptation; and (3) eventually engineer a plan in anticipation.
•Our NOAA project will focus on the first phase and provide the best science.
•That plan itself should be adaptable as time progresses and actual effects are realized.
•Introducing Peter Sheng . . .
A Web-Based Interactive Decision-Support Tool for Adaptation of Coastal Urban and
Natural Ecosystems (ACUNE) in Southwest Florida
Mangroves in Southwest Florida
Study Domain
Storm Surge (1-28ft) + Tide (0-6ft) +
Wave Setup (0-5ft) + Precipitation (0-4.5ft) +
SLR ( ~1ft, 2ft, 6ft) for (2030, 2060, 2100)
======>
Higher Water Level (in water) +
Inundation Level (on land)
•Water Level in water (above MSL or MLLW) is not the
same as Flood Elevation (above NAVD88) and
Inundation Level (above ground) which vary spatially.
•FEMA maps are probabilistic maps based on historical
storms, but do not include future storms & SLR
1% annual exceedance
probability (AEP)
inundation map
100-year inundation
map
1-in-100 chance
inundation map
It is possible to have two
1% AEP floods within
one month!
National Academies Committees on Improving Flood
Map Accuracy & The New Orleans Hurricane Protection System
•1% AEP Base Flood Elevation (BFE) Map (obtained with coastal
model and historical storm data) plus zoning map are used for
collecting flood insurance for NFIP
•1% AEP flood elevation, which is frequently exceeded during
storms, does not ensure flood resilience
•Dutch government uses 1000-10000 year (0.01-0.1%) map
•BFE significantly influenced by the land use features
•FEMA maps do not include the effects of more intense storms and
SLR in 21st Century
•SLR is prescribed at the open boundary, but cannot be applied
everywhere
Flood Elevation
6
Storm tides along NY/NJ Bight Coast during Sandy in 2012
3.44 m
Simulation by CH3D-SWAN (Zou and Sheng 2017)
A Robust Coastal Model ACMS (CH3D-SWAN) has been used to simulate Andrew, Isabel, Charley, Ivan, Katrina,
Wilma, Ike, Sandy, Irma, ………and results are validated with extensive water level data and High Water Marks
Rapid Forecasting System –Hurricane Irma Advisory 38 & 46
Collier County
Got Lucky!
Surge
> 11 ft
Inundation
> 9 ft
Realtime
Forecasting: 30 min
Rapid Forecasting:
3 min
IRMA Best Track
RAPID
FORECAST
SYSTEM
(RFS)
Model
Validation
With HWM’s
HWM’s are
not fully
QA/QC’ed
USGS
HWM stations
RFS is validated
with
USGS HWM’s
NOAA (2012): We have very high confidence (>9 in 10 chance) that global mean sea level
will rise at least 0.2 meters (.75 ft) and no more than 2.0 meters (6.6 ft) by 2100. In 2017,
NOAA (2017): 6.6 ft (99.7%) and 8.4 ft (99.9%). Add local Relative Sea Level (RSL).
NOAA (2012) High: ( 1ft, 2.5ft, 6.6ft) for (2030, 2060, 2100)
Kopp et al. (2014) 99th percentile:( 1ft, 2.4ft, 5.94ft) for (2030, 2060, 2100)
50th percentile: (0.5ft, 1.5ft, 3ft) including RSL at Naples
RCP=Representative Concentration Pathway=Emission Scenario:
RCP2.6 (Best Case), 4.5 (Medium), 8.5 (Worst Case)
IPCC AR5
~ 80 percentile
99.9 percentile
Sweet, W.V., R.E., Kopp, C.P. Weaver, J. Obeysekera, R.M. Horton, E.R. Thieler, C. Zervas, 2017: Global
and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the U.S. NOAA Technical Report NOS CO-OPS-083. NOAA
•Sea Level Rise Scenario values are used at the open
ocean boundary of dynamic coastal models.
•Flood risk to be determined by coastal model
simulations considering future storms and SLR.
•SLR values are evolving as we learn more about the
processes.
•2100 is 73 years away, much higher than life span of
most infrastructures.
•We’ve got time to decide.
•We will select the appropriate SLR values
for 2030, 2060, 2100 based on sensitivity
study and together with the end users who
will decide their risk tolerance for specific
infrastructures.
This is not a 1% annual chance flood! SLR cannot determine flood event.
Our new NOAA-
NCCOS project
in a nutshell
Best Available
Actionable
Science
Project Team
Principal Investigator Peter Sheng
Project & Science Lead Research Professor
University of Florida
Co-Principal Investigator Michael Savarese
Coordination Lead Professor
Florida Gulf Coast University
Team Member Christine Angelini
Marsh/Mangrove Survey Assistant Professor
University of Florida
Team Member Mike Barry
Mangrove/Marsh Ecology Ecologist
Institute for Regional Conservation
Team Member Justin Davis
Hydrodynamic Survey Research Assistant Scientist
University of Florida
Project Team
Team Member Felix Jose
Beach Processes Assistant Professor
Florida Gulf Coast University
Team Member Ken Krauss
Mangrove/Marsh Ecology Research Ecologist
U.S. Geological Survey
Team Member David Letson
Economic Impact Professor
RSMAS, University of Miami
Team Member Vladimir Paramygin
Coastal Modeling Research Assistant Scientist
University of Florida
Team Member Karen Thorne
Mangrove/Marsh Ecology Research Ecologist
U.S. Geological Survey
Name Agency Title
Kevin Godsea Ten Thousand Islands National
Wildlife Refuge
Team Leader / Refuge Manager
Mark Danaher Supervisory Biologist
Keith Laakkonen
Rookery Bay National
Estuarine Research Reserve
Reserve Manager
Brita Jessen Research Coordinator
Jeff Carter Stewardship Coordinator
Patrick O’Donnell Fisheries Biologist
Jessica McIntosh Coastal Training Program Coordinator
Lisa Koehler South Florida Water
Management District
Lead Administrator
Akin Owosina Bureau Chief Hydrology & Hydraulics
Rhonda Watkins Collier County Senior Environmental Specialist
Danette Kinaszczuk Pollution Control Manager
Stephanie Molloy City of Naples Natural Resource Manager
Chadd Chustz City of Marco Island Environmental Specialist
Steve Houseknecht Fakahatchee State Park Interim Park Manager
Kirby Wilson Collier-Seminole State Pk Park Manager
Zach Lozano Delnor-Wiggins State Pk Park Manager
Bob Sobczak Big Cypress Natl Preserve Hydrologist
Steven Gornak FL Fish & Wildlife
Conservation Commission Biological Administrator
Sara Ayers-Rigsby FL Public Archaeological
Network
Director Southeast & Southwest Regions
Rachel Kangas Public Archaeology Coordinator SW Region
Margo Schwadron National Park Service Archaeologist
Austin Bell Marco Island Historical Society Curator of Collections
Kathy Worley Conservancy of SWFL Director Environmental Science
Natural Resource Management Team
Urban Resilience & Planning Team
Name Agency Title
Linda Penniman
City of Naples
Team Leader / Vice Mayor Naples
Bill Moss City Manager
Charlette Roman
City of Marco Island
City Council Member
Larry Honig City Council Member
Howard Reed City Council Member
Penny Taylor
Collier County
County Commissioner / Board Chair
Donna Fiala County Commissioner
Leo Ochs County Manager
Nick Casalanguida Deputy County Manager
Jerry Kurtz Stormwater Management
Trinity Scott Transportation Planning Manager
Andy Miller Transportation Engineering
Howard Critchfield Building Review & Permitting
Caroline Cilek Floodplain Management
David Weeks Growth Management Manager
Eric Fey Public Utilities
Rick Zyvoloski Emergency Management
Amy Patterson Director Capital Project Planning
Anne McLaughlin Director, Collier MPO
Gary McAlpin Manager Coastal Zone Management
Nader Ardalan Ardalan Associates Urban Architect & Designer
Nicole Johnson Conservancy of SFWL
Director Growth Mgmt & Planning
Project Collaboration & Communication
•End users were engaged in the proposal development.
•The products will be developed and shared over 3-year
period.
•At year’s beginning . . .
•Host a series of meetings with team members to provide concerns &
recommendations for those year’s products.
•This input will help define the product’s foci and appearance for
greatest usefulness.
•At year’s end . . .
•Host workshops to present products, train on their use, and to
collaboratively interpret.
•During year 2, County pursues a companion planning effort
through an RFP process.
1. What tool are we developing?
•An integrated web-based tool (ACUNE) to enable end users to
develop coastal resiliency plan for flood protection, estuarine
preservation, and mangrove restoration
•The tool will include various products:
•Tropical cyclones for future climate (2030, 2060, 2100)
•Sea Level Rise scenarios (2030, 2060, 2100)
•Probabilistic coastal inundation maps for current and future climate (2030,
2060, 2100)
•Beach impact maps for 2030, 2060, 2100
•Mangrove distribution maps in 2030, 2060, 2100
•Probabilistic inundation maps and economic impact maps with various
adaptation (e.g., mangrove restoration) plans
Developing Probabilistic Coastal Inundation Maps
•Current Climate
•Analyze statistical properties of historical storms for a coastal region
•Develop a Storm Ensemble (SE) which can represent all possible storms
•Generate Coastal Inundation Maps for the Storm Ensemble
•Develop Probabilistic Coastal Inundation Maps
•Future Climate
•Develop a Storm Ensemble (SE) for 2030, 2060, 2100
•Generate Coastal Inundation Maps for the Future Storm Ensembles
•Develop Probabilistic Coastal Inundation Maps for 2030, 2060, 2100
Example of Coastal Flood Risk Study for SW FL
Condon and Sheng (Natural Hazards, 2012)
•Study Domain
•Gulf of Mexico,
Caribbean Sea and West
of Atlantic
•SW Florida
•Collier County
Grid Resolution ~ 30-500 m
Surge Atlas with Cat-5 Hurricane
Simulated with CH3D-SWAN Modeling System
(Condon and Sheng, Natural Hazards, 2012)
No Sea Level Rise With 1.5 m Sea Level Rise
Cannot do
planning based
on a single
storm!
Joint Probability Method (JPM) for Storm Ensemble (SE)
•FEMA approved method for generating storm ensemble for current climate.
•Develops the probability distribution function (pdf) of the five storm parameters:
Intensity, Size, Forward Speed, Direction, and Landfall Location.
•Requires >20,000 storms to represent all possible storms. Computationally very intensive.
•Condon and Sheng (2012, Natural Hazards) Used JPM-Optimal Sampling to simulate inundation
during ~150 “optimal” (representative) storms which represent all possible storms (>20,000). Efficient.
1% AEP Surge varies significantly along the coast
1% AEP surge levels at Naples
for 2100 climate scenario = 4.74 m (RCP8.5 without SLR)
(simulated by CH3D) , but the 100-yr surge varies
significantly along the coast
We will use CH3D-SWAN to simulate future
flooding throughout the Collier County
under an ensemble of future storms and SLR values
Climate Scenario Period AMO Phase Sea Level
Rise (m)
Storms
Current Climate (CC)1982-2009 -0.0 60
Future, RCP 4.5 Early (2020-2040)Negative 0.0 28
Future, RCP 4.5 Early (2020-2040)Positive 0.0 29
Future, RCP 4.5 Early (2020-2040)Negative 0.3 28
Future, RCP 4.5 Early (2020-2040)Positive 0.3 29
Future, RCP 4.5 Late (2080-2100)Negative 0.0 47
Future, RCP 4.5 Late (2080-2100)Positive 0.0 64
Future, RCP 4.5 Late (2080-2100)Negative 1.0 47
Future, RCP 4.5 Late (2080-2100)Positive 1.0 64
Future, RCP 8.5 Late (2080-2100)Positive 1.0 66
Future, RCP 8.5 Late (2080-2100)Positive 2.0 66
Current and Future Climate & SLR Scenarios (Sheng et al. 2017)
•Condon and Sheng (2012) used results of Knutson et al. (2010) -slightly more intense but less frequent future storms.
•Sheng et al. (2017) used results of LaRow et al. (2014) –more intense and frequent future storms (Knutson et al. 2015).
Based on prediction
by global
climate/atmospheric
models and
downscaled by
regional WRF model
Example SW Florida 1% AEP Inundation Maps
Current Climate RCP4.5, 2030, 0.3m SLR RCP8.5, 2100, 2m SLR
•Slight increase in Inundation Volume/Area/Heights by 2030.
•Significant increase in Inundation Volume/Area/Heights by 2100.
Contour plots of
% of inundation
due to SLR
RCP8.5 2100
50 Years
500 Years
1mSLR
2mSLR
Even in 2100,
storms and
SLR must both
be considered!
Q: Can Storm Effects be Neglected by 2100?
Bathtub Model Dynamic Model
2 m SLR + 4.74 m Surge 2 m SLR + RCP8.5 2100 Storms
(100-year surge at Naples)
Unrealistically high!
Water Levels at Select Locations
•Flood risk at any specific location can be predicted
•Flood risk varies spatially with location
•We have NOT finished the flood risk study. These are
preliminary results
Assessing the role of mangrove forest in reducing coastal inundation(Sheng and Zou, 2017, Hydrobiologia)
Vegetation removed
Green infrastructure
can be used to buffer
storm surge, wave,
and inundation in
Collier County!
Mangroves prevented massive flooding in Miami Dade
County during Hurricane Andrew!
With vegetation
29
>11 ft
Everglades City
Sampling sites for future storms
Approximate Vegetation Type Map (2007)Beach Study Areas
2. What do we need to do to produce the tool?
•Predict coastal inundation in future climate (SLR, more intense storms, etc.)
•Quantify the role of mangroves in buffering wave, surge, and flooding
•Predict coastal inundation in Collier and Naples in future climate,
considering various mangrove restoration plans and climate scenarios
•Predict future mangrove migration in upland direction
•Predict salinity changes in Rookery Bay and Naples Bay
•Quantify the economic impact of future inundation & mangroves’ effects
3.How are we doing it?
•Use new model domain
•Simulate the role mangroves and marshes played during Hurricane Charley and Wilma
•Measure mangroves and marshes distribution and vertical structure
•Monitor wave, surge, and inundation during future extreme events
•Predict future storms
•Develop predictive model of upland migration of mangroves
•Develop probabilistic coastal inundation maps for Collier and Naples, considering SLR and mangrove
restoration options
•Develop economic impact maps
•Provide training to stakeholders on the use of the tool and products
Milestone Chart Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
1 End-user &researcher coordination &outreach
2a Detailed mapping of vegetation distribution/structure
2b Field monitoring of episodic events in vegetation area
Site selection,sensor development/procurement and assembly
Episodic events #1,#2 and #3 #1 #2 #3
2c Validation of vegetation-resolving surge-wave model
3a 100-yr &500-yr coastal inundation maps under current climate
3b Produce mid &late 21st century coastal inundation maps
4 Predict mid &late 21st century salinity distribution in estuaries
5 Develop vulnerability maps of beaches and barrier islands
Extract beach morphology,compile LiDAR data,Sallenger method
Grid development:Marco,Keewaydin islands,Naples,Vanderbilt
beaches
Model application for simulating morphological evolution
Product development
6
Predict future distributions of marsh/mangrove habitats –
Setting up baseline model,model calibration,model validation
7a
Develop future coastal inundation maps corresponding to various
mangrove restoration plans
7b Economic maps for various restoration plans
8a Develop ACUNE prototype by integrating all the products
8b Incremental updates of ACUNE based on user feedback
Semi-annual reports
Annual project meeting
Technical monitor meeting
FGCU subaward execution
UM subaward execution
Questions?
Sea Level Rise Report & Recommendations for Collier County, Fla.
Dr. Benjamin Strauss -Climate Central -October 10, 2017
Source: http://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/Source: NOAA
Source: http://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/
Source: NASA, https://sealevel.nasa.gov/understanding-sea-level/key-indicators/global-mean-sea-level
Source: NASA, https://sealevel.nasa.gov/understanding-sea-level/key-indicators/global-mean-sea-level
Source: RealClimate.org
Source: NASA
Muir and Riggs Glaciers, Alaska
USGS 1941 1950 2004
0
1
2
3
4
5
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100Sea level rise (feet)2015 FMP Kopp - Low Kopp - Central Kopp - High
Main recommended sea level projections
Basis for main recommendation
(Compact also uses RCP 8.5)
NOAA global scenarios
https://www.nasa.gov/jpl/news/antarctic-ice-sheet-20140512/
Main recommended sea level projections
Projection 2030 (ft)2060 (ft)2100 (ft)2100 (m)
2015 Collier County FMP 0.3 0.9 2.5 0.7
Kopp –Low 0.4 0.9 1.5 0.5
Kopp –Central 0.6 1.4 2.8 0.8
Kopp –High 0.9 2.0 4.4 1.3
Kopp –99th percentile 1.0 2.4 5.7 1.7
Extreme n/a n/a 10.4 3.2