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J CL O , zwo ow cf) O Z poU) w - cz 0 11 1 g = w � wm . O wm0 „= Q - ( 0 -J-1U W 0S a N d U 2 Q }-as .7:1 4, 0 om a a) < Z E cc T M cc a ° Z >_ C) 5 ; z W c J 0 Z ° - 0 LL W >- Q ° < Jom _j z - 1! W J W Q ¢ < O = V `J Q m W CO CQ W F- II- ',./7 j SW ° V) wQ Z t,, = z ° 0 ° W CC = °z Q ¢ u) J N N ° co W a w a . -C N. QW u, m I 3 7 o Non a z cn :J p p z 0 Q ¢ 1-W- o Z o w o GE Q ° 1= _ \^ .f- 0 C/) U 0 ~ 4 Nz° m Z co ° 0 w z U.. Qa ¢ 0° ¢ m zw W O ,� zcc° O _ov, -I I- - �, p Z W 0 0 =Lu oCOQ V o0 }° gym° = o � ~ mUW cc O zE O 9- o F- E 1:1) o w ---. >,_ ....._ u_ LLI wim■P C-) T zWF--- CC � w - I .Q Cl) > cc O o= I-- co co Lu ID `1,; Q � J V' �O ° N '- aQ0 co rcc w co-, w hW- _ ° _ 0) Q 'nzH = pZ ~ o m = Z W 2 Z Q omi < o O c\I cc W _F- MO -1 m Z } w CO 00 CC W Z I- 1- 0 ZQ Cn z J Z3 W W ca Z _ WZ0cC O W E Z - = W a I- , C o= 3 cn I- �- W - 1- 0QCC za J J F_ zz �O Ou 0 -7 r z W 0 Q z W Q Z c - o = n W 2z 0 F Cw ° � wmC) N O m 0 = Q .- _ = o Jv w 0 = a �� a 0 2 0 1- c0 '-4 a cn Q M C o -4.7. O 0 a) d Cl) i 'Cr M z CC C,4, 4' CC 0 = z 0 c75 F- z W cc 5: 0 _ > � J m U z ~ ¢ o CO r C OJO J z0 <CC b J012 Z ww _I 1 - `- QQ < O 0¢ U "\l F- O w co 0 w I- Qmo Z ~ = m w ww EE Li, cc 000 O 0 w I'' 5 z 0 Cl co I- Cl)u.i 0cnm a mw a LLJ (4 L d' Q • w a l T = � Q co w - m I cc- J CO �,, a O cc;), Q w � Q■ 0 CI 1_ 0 Z 2 0 W 'n C]C Q O — o U 0 H I ( `r- � O Cl) 0O 0 m Z m 0 LL CD V Ui_ 2 w 2n_ O �0 zmF- z J w Z (JO O Ouwj O n cc p ¢ C O O =ru = co f-- = O � m O E E N �, mzw cmcc O o - = O � O I- .i.+ O 0w0 cc wm J V wi= ~ = V) w m p w = Cl)i .5 cc V- 00 H -0 a 1 CnUU WO m w a. .w�.. ,�\ c i(5 = H cc 00 1=- }a) Q �.c) ZF-. = 0Z V/ omF- Z QU O Q w � M o ° cc mJ A Z � w 0 0 _ U Z C W p Li- ZZ (5 W w Z J G W ,g,, 0 O W 'n o z °� = w I- ._, .:. cc C7 F"' ~ w Z W OQ m J Zw O ■ I- Z I- 0 � CL z w O Z W Z Pi r— 000 -f W F- w O E c m w m w m V O wm0 moo, Q '� -€ O:LI JU w 0 = a a U = cc � ~ �' a 13 iii :_ = = o a Q °- c 6 a Z E CC cc Z z V Pt- >- 0 0) I- I— W cc m O Z J Q � i� w ¢ p J O _! z a W F' w ¢ Q ¢ 0 O C- S 0 iL Q m w V) ( w H- p z `' LU M p W w Q. 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O -J W 0 = a d O = i' 0 C .14' C u) = m C mt, �. t 1 0 O o- C o a; Cl) a Z Z CC V G 3 _ )._, Q z La � z w cc J ' 0 � 1 1 CO 0 Z 0 cV O w w �"" ¢ O Q cc J 0 J z 0_ w Jcc � Z ww _! ¢ ¢ ¢< 0 0¢ U 2 ,_ 0 in Cl) z„D > Z._ = 00 O w 5 . w 0 cr) o (J)O Q W w w w <2 i- d V l V w Q CU NIA W c).- 1-/-1 co 0 _ o N °Is a zJ cn C3 I zLu G z (U a 6 o = VVVV ) ( ° J a O h- m i— J R 1 4, N J Z w Z m O ■� = zco1- m J LL m ILI 0 z0o 0 0 � J 4—P 0 z I— co LU o ., °N6 on c ,_=E 4.--) C° z � O= O o H LU E 1L1 1 11 w W m� 0 wF O = = O v CL le co< a U U u) w w W - o V co-0 = 1— CC 0 1-- a i M } 1_ = 0z z U- � O - m w ►U m a -- oJ � ^ mJ _ cc v ¢ CO w o J 0 1 LL ZZC'3 W wZ 0 LL O w 4 pz °C = wcc I- oC („' c1) 1— z Lu J o < O - � a 0 o w ~ ZZLu) p W zw Z O = u W cnZ V 7 0 0 OLD 1- z D w E _ c w � m wca o wm0 hoc Q E lv1 _ J _1U 'J � w —I �P l" / OJ W O = a _� `,� � w a m ~ � ai 0 0- C o a) o i a Z E CC // z w V' z0 ¢O CC 0 cc a z w J v V in ccw W cc O� H = > J 'V mi_ Q ° - J z a_ W p Q cc Z w W J V c=niw— O 0w V c? c.5 co) z > Z W w Q ¢ E O J CL A, o � 0 � ° W LA -1z Q � ° Cn ^ w a /� 1- - O co J i = co 1— � w ¢ Q. N � � w W � m � 'fir w � J CO ./N O cc 0 cc z � a 5 >- ¢ p 0 S N wzw Z � Z w T, /0 ccD ° a 0Q Z von d=O cn (n O I- '� � � ° 1- - � 1L //�� ✓J o00Z mcc 0 �V p ¢ OwC a, J u_ /■ 9 Z0 ° m Zw W / ¢ mZ Ocn W Q Q U► o w () 0 w W cr) O = LP -t\ wzZ00 a. o 0 0 � O o_ LL. in m - z w ° J W E -1 ZCC � = m co O ¢wO 00 F._ O = 1r W :Ti 'a >- � W O Q o a a °w � ¢ p 0z z cil�w ° — ° Z Y z2cc — < 0 O w Li- Q Iii F- /1 < 0 m i.-7.) 0 0 tr , �/, P co-= W oZ 0 C M m Z O W °o z = H "" W s F . 0 ~ zw J (r z J 0 ~O M Q U Uz p zw O Z Z ° w z C..) N a) Z � H zm CC) v 0 ° > WCO Cr a) 0 ~ J w J - Lu o � a 5a J 1 z a- D, D CZ rd r 0 m a cc co o C CI N wO ' cu �' ai w _J >- C2. 0a a M Z CC CC = Z I > V / I-' z W a ,,,/// mp° z H o - V J 92 u_ >- ¢ O Q moo ¢ O Q1 U ¢ mo zw I— = W W W > Z 000 C 0 W j 5 Z 0 0 C/) Cl) �° L U o 0 Y °wY W L 1- ° < 1"' W < a . a) . N 9 W W a W � �^° ._ � ¢ Cl) m } V . .... N F._ a w J a c- 0 ¢ Iw-- 0 Z � 0 W CI o cc Q r9 — Ni No cti ~ m Z m0 LL 0 0 CL a �. Zoo D Ocw -I I-- . 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JO (n 0O 1- 0 CO Z m 0 LL CC V W I- H W C- . 1- .�.o P zm < 5 J LL zoo 0 Ocwi) J LLI o ° o V 0O _ mz = csil O° m O 0 1. �� o vO � J m W U wY = w m 1 E n = u) ¢ui F- w — OO E N V a cn O CA cc V co-0 ± 1-- EE 00 _ CD Q .. 9z1- O Oz F- � - m Z LL -2 Z °om1— ¢ 0 O ( m w F- Q 0 JO . ^ m --I cc IA IA ZF-- Foy O sic) Z Z- (� �W D z W \r-, Z 0 O W 44-1 ° Z � _ "� O cc ~ m W ,, 0 ¢ o_ —I • 1 ? .‘-b. - z ~z O O � M Q - zw0 0 Zw O Lu E , c mw w co 0 o wm ° Q a 0 - W o = OF-a ° _ CC a' \ > co C as o O c' 6 Q Z Z cc Cr a 0 = Z F-- z W cc oI--, ¢mw o Cr O J eL J O Z W J � /E Z ww J ¢ ¢ < 0 ¢ I U F- Ow CA 0w F- = m ° Cn w > Z mi_u H. `c. cc00 0 O W ° "' "' cn ° CA aw °C a CC w • i • ° ¢ ~ W ¢ CL a) N ° m¢ V 4- OI- F- J CA O NF Q z 4 zww -. C] V ¢ F- ° Z .c z O W J CC < O 1= _ ' .1- J0 C/) 00 F- cn v. ° 0 w Z cU O o 0 z W n Z 3 ° 0 O J o z cc ~ w W ; O o O O C C I-». E w — >.- � w W 0 WF= ~ 0 (j)I±1 w m T� a d ¢ jw O OO i 0 u) U U cc W V O v cYS C`3 w I- cr cc CD I- = CD Q v } F- = oz Z Q Z ON m ~ M w H m (5 _, � m Z >- w CO 0 O U ¢Z L 1 0 -' Z Z_ E5 W w Z 0 i Z O c z i-- Z _ = �' CC000n 1- zw W O ¢ w 0 OJ.. • \ -4 zw � C zw O 0 M 00u) - z- U Z r0 — a) oC Q U R w J W 0 OF a A —as a.) a m -0 = o a) 0 0 a) > �' °' i Q cn M E CC _zw 0 1- z (-5 O CC Y z w = Z U — Rn ccw W cc OwF- _ > w = 1- p D -I mi_ ¢ o CC ---J Z a W = w z 0z WI O ¢ � o ccnn Cr) Cl)C z > z w 10 57 w W ¢ O S. OE C = O W 1 _1 w 11111. u) I-0 (n . -I z Q = w Q � ° O QCD L = CO I- E w ¢ a -U a) E-- w W 0- m cc 3 ° cc ° caw a o 5 � ¢ O 0 c � o a 0 - =ILI O Cr) U O o 3 '`I- 0 cn %F.' 0 .. 0 0 Z m = O V ° ccW � a LL oM � ¢ a Z0 oL _J ._ of- cn N wzz � � o ati z u) J w w - E zc � CC � w J O as V cc W 00 1— ,- o = cn °c w .� } I- w O CD w z o a a = oY o ° o z Cn`- z oc — ¢ U O Q wL-i ¢ M wi ccozzm � ova- O ¢ I- w o ¢ u- c' w wz G C-.)1 u? fn = cl O W J °o z_ = hw- I- Q No ~ zw J O D 0 1_ a z O `'1 co O O (.0 z Z e., a. zw _ zU W E �_ . o ~ m wm 0 9 O = > � = Q of Ti o a .I..r \ N � ¢ W c.) 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LLICC O aYcn J .. ow � s a.c'¢ W m ° CC I- -J U) N O z Q W - Q o — o aI- o r y o Z � o w I CA- c) Q � o orm 11— = p w VNz wZm = O '� � ` ZC° ¢ z0 � Lu 0 »- oz cc O 1= w w "-- ccp ¢ U O0 = ODO c Ou) 1— 1= m = O o- 0 OH O zwO CWw m Nimm 0 h w i= p cc = Q ii) 2 > _ PPV 171. W W O0 F- .0 °' N Q00 co � o U W Cu- V L9 � i 0z I=— Q _z = Z 1-1- 2 Z Q • ► o -Icc ^ C ' cc 0 � U ¢ 2 W o J 0 "d R Qzw W oz CI cc O W I CEz � 1=- zw W �.,/� CE c7 cn z J ■ Ozz O O � M 0 �' zw0 p zw O Z �^ 0w V) W cnz V ' V � - Ooccn N U O '' H Z D W E c OO M wm U �_ O w cc) 0 cc Q -- U J 2 w J •� a OQ W O = o � a. U vil d = U 411‘ C co V 6 F- „r O o= C o cu > 0 c ai a) �' Q M z c _ 1 Q c� = z I - z W cn C° � z ~ ° D CC C212 U_ y- ¢ O Q C{ _IOC J zO W ,____ J Z w w J cc , I— Ow U) 0w I- (`" = 0° ° co z > Z t— "� cn W wQ a j ° cc o �w U Cw o n-1 wo c O w Q W w ° I an w Q, ¢ ¢ N Q cn W a w � O N o z a z m Q ° ° – 0 � � D -.1 zw Z z off ° Q Uo W o - _ O 1 - ./1 = ¢O U c CC Z° w Z 0 Li- V a w W � °- F— ° ,. L u- .� .- z r w j zC.7 ° O Oc J O w CCz ¢ V ~Owp W OE E ° z= O o I— CD 0 � W 4 wo= o CC � w m pm = co ¢ ' w O OO H cnU —' co "- oc w 0= c° zc = CC I— CD Q 1- = Oz c) } Z Q ° o WI m J O J c, _� m M O CC ',1\ U ¢ c W c . 0 LI- v z z_ C'3 W w Z 0 ¢ w CC O O W N �g zz °C = wcn I– V 0 cc.J � I— z � W >_ 0w 0 �_ - a i_ zz 1— O M 0 zw0 0 zw O Z —� oa w W - z v a) Uo � ~ z ° w �� a cc w � m wm O �` O wm0 cc Q ;= = U --I w J as a U 'p �; co o c O0 °' m E 0. a M Z CC 1c; 2 _3I ') l L -r- 1c 'I SWFRPC p�K � puoaet 7a:fiiove SOUTHWEST FLORIDA REGIONAL PLANNING COUNCIL 1926 VICTORIA AVENUE FORT MYERS, FL 33901 PHONE: (239) 338-2550 FAX: (239) 338-2560 Sea Level Rise Mapping The study area for the region is divided into uplands (433 square miles/277,050 acres) and wetlands (915 square miles/585,766 acres) below 10 feet in elevation, which only exist in the four coastal counties (1,348 total square miles/862,816 acres). This area below 10 feet subject to sea level rise impacts is 22.4 percent of the total region's land area. Exiting land use data is used to determine wetlands and uplands. Land elevations,future land use local government comprehensive plans, county critical facilities emergency mitigation plans and assumptions regarding development rights are used to determine sea level rise protection scenarios. A current population of approximately 607,000 people lives in 357,000 dwelling units. Millions of square feet of commercial, office and other uses are within the study area. This area is expected to be essentially built-out in the next 50 years with a population level of people. Assuming no protection measures against sea level rise, upland areas can be expected to experience vegetation changes, higher hurricane storm surges causing greater flood damages to private and public property, salt water intrusion to public and private wells, and higher flood insurance elevation levels, cost and expanding coverage areas. Assuming protection measures are implemented in developed areas wetland impacts are expected to be significant because of two factors. Sedimentation accommodation space for wetland vegetation that cannot keep pace with accelerating sea level rise and lack of wetland migration space due to wetlands being squeezed between the rising sea and the upland protective structures. Essentially most of the regions developed natural shorelines will be replaced with various types of human created barriers to hold back the sea with a resultant decline of estuarine productivity. SWFRPC I Emergency Management Page 2 of 2 a, � Publications rl 101It'l \ Economic Views f Climate Ready Estuaries Harbor Happenings Reports SWFRPC CHNEP Strategic Regional Policy Plan(SRPP) News Latest News Press Releases Job Opportunities Contact Mission: nspoiled character of the physical,economic and social communities worlds we share for the benefit of our future gene ations.and relatively Emergency Evacuation Planning Tools Florida Division of Erneroenav Management 2010 Evacuation Study Management The Florida Division of Emergency Management,Department of Community Affairs Division of Federal B»emency Evacuation Planning _ Community Planning and Department of Transportation in coordination with the Southwest Menae�m�nt Aoanc� 2010 Evacuation StudOi Florida Regional Planning Council have developed the Statewide Regional Evacuation Study for the Southwest Florida Region. This report updates the region's evacuation population National Hurricane Centex Hazardous Materials Planning estimates, evacuation clearance times and public shelter demand. The study covers National Oceanic and Charlotte,Collier,Glades,Hendry Lee and Sarasota Counties and their municipalities. A r nal,_tic Administration �EPC 2010 EVACUATION STUDY Sea Level Rise Mansion Hurricanes . Southwest Florida has been identified by the Nation=!Weather Service as one of the most hurricane-vulnerable areas of the United States.The potential for large-scale loss of life and property during a hurricane is great. The analysis of hurricane probability is based upon historical occurrences in Southwest Florida,as evidenced in data available from the National Climatic Center,in Asheville, North Carolina,the National Hurricane Center,Miami,Florida; and the Fort Myers and Tampa Area Offices of the National Weather Service. READ MORE Local Mitigation The Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000(DMA2K)significantly expanded the mitigation planning requirements imposed on both state and local jurisdictions in order to maintain eligibility for federal mitigation funds.DMA2K requires each state to have in place a Federal Emergency Management Agency(FEMA)approved State Mitigation Plan to remain eligible for the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program (HMGP), Flood Mitigation Assistance Program (FMAP), or other federal mitigation assistance program funds.While Florida currently has an approved Section 409 Hazard Mitigation Plan,the new requirements dictate a much higher level of detail and increased coordination with other state agencies and local governments. READ MORE News Resources Council Program Areas Resources About Us Latest News Agendas&Minutes Regional Planning Reports Who We Are Press Releases Members Information Services Related Links What We Do Job Opportunities Resolutions Economic Development Contact Us Emergency Management Natural Resources Regional Transportation Copyright©SWFRPC.All rights reserved. 6/23/2015 htto://www.swfrpc.org/emergeney_mgmt.html SWFRPC 1 Emergency Management Page 2 of 3 0 Publications tiV1116:) Economic Views Climate Ready Estuaries Harbor Happenings Icfc Reports SWFRPC CHNEP Strategic Renional Policy Plan(SRPP) News Latest News Press Releases Job Opportunities Co ntect Mission:to work together across neighboring communities to consistently protect and improve the unique and relatively unspoiled character of the physical,economic and social worlds we share for the benefit of our future generations. Emergency 2010 Evacuation Study Tools Management The Florida Division of Emergency Management,Department of Community Affairs Division of Florida Division of Emeroencv Management Community Planning and Department of Transportation in coordination with the Southwest Evacuation Planning Florida Regional Planning Council has developed the Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Federal Emergency 9 g for the Southwest Florida Region. This report ranaoement Agency 2010 Evacuation Study _�- updates the region's evacuation population � 0 National Hurricane Center Hazardous Materials Planning estimates, evacuation clearance times and 1111 2011 Innocmion Award public shelter demand. The study covers - - - Notional Oceanic and LFPC $nut6uust rl arida Ite isrmrl IH auun" Atmossh Administration Charlotte, Collier, Glades, Hendry Lee and p f' Council and die Flnrid.r Rrr„ioral Sea Leval Rise tJens ocr Sarasota Counties and their municipalities. Councils Association GIS Database(zip) Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program Volume 1:Technical Data Report The Technical Data Report (TDR) is the primary document of the Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program.The TDR contains the summary analysis of all other supporting research,survey data and modeling. Executive Summary Chapter I:Recional Demcgrashic and Lana Use Analysts Chapter II:Recional Hazards Analysis Chapter IIP Renional Behavoria'l Analysis Summary Chapter IV:Reoione■Vulnerability and Pooulation Analysis Chapter V.Recional Shelter Analysis Chanter VP.Evacuation Transoortation Analysis Chapter VII:Appendices: Ch?_ri vtle Co!li=_r Glades Handh, Lee Sarasota Glossary Volume 2:Regional Behavioral Analysis Volume 3:Regional Behavioral Survey Report Volume 4:Evacuation Transportation Analysis Volume 5:Evacuation Transportation Supplemental Data Report Volume 6:Emergency Management Evacuation Toolkit The Emergency Management Tool Kit includes locally-selected data pertinent to the county emergency management agency. It is meant to be used as a quick reference guide for operations.The Toolkit is For Official Use Only and is not available on this website for public download. Volume 7:Storm Tide Atlas The Storm Tide Atlas provides the storm tide boundaries based on the new SLOSH Analysis including the boundaries of the Coastal High Hazard Area(CHHA). It is provided in several formats including GIS files,PDF files and printed copy.There is one Book for each county in the region which has a potential for storm tide flooding. Book 1'Charlotte County Stone Tide Atlas Book 2•Collier County Storm Tide Atlas Book 3 Glades County Storm Tide Atlas http://www.swfrpc.org/evac_study.html 6/23/2015 SWFRPC 1 Emergency Management Page 3 of 3 L1, (2 i2 tic Book 4•Hendry County Storm Tide Apes '' t) tA Book 5 i •Lee Counts Storm Tide Atlas Book 6:Sarasota County Storm Tide Atlas Volume S:Methodology and Support Documentation About Us Council Progra m Areas News Resources Who We Are Agendas&Minutes Regional Planning Latest News Publications Information Services Press Releases Reports Wnat We Do Members Resolutions Economic Development Job Opportunities Related Links Emergency Management Contact Us Natural Resources Regional Transportation Copyright©SWFRPC.All rights reserved. http://www.swfrpc.org/evac_study.html 6/23/2015 SWFRPC I Hazardous Materials Page 2 of 2 Cf.- ittli.,)/(.5 Publications IL) Economic Views Climate Ready Estuaries Harbor Haogeninos Reports SWFRPC CHNEP Strategic Regional Policy Plan(SRPP) News Latest News Press Releases Job Opportunities Contact Mission: to work together across neighboring communities to consistently protect and improve the unique and relatively unspoiled character of the physical,economic and social worlds we share for the benefit of our future generations. Emergency Hazardous Materials Tools An increasingly sophisticated technology has been expanding the nature of emergencies and Model Faail:it,Conhnoency Management Plan the hazards to those that combat them. It is important for general public safety,as well as personal and business liability, that those businesses with unique needs have developed public p ailab•- of Evzcuafion Plan�ina 2010 Evacuation Study emergency response programs and have coordinated them with public emergency managers. Hazardous Materials In recent years,fires in structures with hazardous materials have incapacitated unsuspecting Infcrithatin Hazardous Materials Planning local responders, and have forced the evacuation of thousands of unsuspecting residents. Fubilo Reg�,irsts The nature of the threat will not diminish in forthcoming years. LEPC Sea Level Rise Manning Sheltering-in-Place The Southwest Florida Local Emergency Planning Committee welcomes you to Shelter-in- Place.This section was developed to educate the public on steps to take in the event of the need to find immediate shelter.The LEPC staff is available to conduct a"Shelter-in-Place" presentation to civic groups,clubs,school districts,and churches upon request. Sheltering in Place,Presentation READ MORE About Us Coursci! Program Areas News Resources Who We Are Agendas&Minutes Regional Planning Latest News Publications Members Information Services Press Releases Reports V�rnat We Do Job p ortunities Related Links Resolutions Economic Development PP Emergency Management Contact Us Natural Resources Regional Transportation Copyright©SWFRPC.All rights reserved. 6/23/2015 http://wwvv.swfrpe.org/haz_mat.html SWF'RPC LEPC Page 2 of 3 7t1I3/t5 Publications Economic Views Climate,Ready Estuaries Harbor Haopeninas Resorts SVVFRPC CHNEP Strataaie Regional Policy Plan(SRPP) News Latest News Press Releases Job Oncortunities Contact Mission: to work together across neighboring communities to consistently protect and improve the unique and relatively unspoiled character of the physical,economic and social worlds we share for the benefit of our future generations. Emergency Local Emergency Planning Committee Agendas Management The Southwest Florida Local Emergency Planning Committee is mandated by law. In 1986 02/27/14-aaeada I minutes Congress passed Title III of the Superfund Amendments and Reauthorization Act(SARA Title 05/22/14: aand_a minutes Evas�_ia'.',cnPla�n'na Ill).Sara Title Ill is known as the Emergency Planning and Community Right to Know Act (EPCRA). EPCRA was passed to increase public and private efforts to reduce risks 08/28/14.aeenda I minutes 2010 Evacuation study associated with the use and storage of hazardous chemicals. 12/05114:agenda �m inu'es Hazardous Materials Planning 02/26115:aosnde I minutes Moreover, it establishes a unique public/private partnership of government entities and LEPC industry for the planning and reporting of hazardous and toxic chemicals. The Florida 05/28/15.a �,Ada packet Sea Level Rise Maoo'na Hazardous Materials Emergency Response and Community Right to Know Act of 1988, minutes implements the federal legislation and provides a funding mechanism to support activities. The intent of the legislation is two fold: To develop plans to respond quickly in the event of an accident, spill or release of S State M chemicals or hazardous materials. Meetings To increase the public's knowledge and access to information regarding the presence of hazardous chemicals in the community and releases of the chemicals into the 04/10115:S_unrna�Y environment. Trainings Who are Members? The Southwest Florida(District IX) Local Emergency Planning Committee is comprised of 02/12/15-EPCRF.Course unpaid volunteers appointed by the Florida State Emergency Response Commission whose members are appointed by the Governor. Tools Request for Proposals 2014 LEPC Plan Hazardous Materials Commodity Flow Study Deadline:July 1,2015,2:00p.m. 2015 LEPC Plan LEPC Facility/Il..meland Security Resolution LEPC Roster LEPC Mernber Nomination Form Model Facility Contincency Plan Risk Manaaument Plan Reoortinn Florida.Division of Emergency Menaaement/Florida SERC Southwest Florida LEPC School Toolkl!. 6/23/2015 http://www.swfrpc.org/lepc.html �l---7E) &/2--•-%// Cr--' g '' RISKY BUSINESS ^. . , , , , The Economic Risks of Climate Change in the United States ti �t• '' . •••+ .. � , Ift o .n '+R: .li k,, a- .. , 111 ,,.�«.,i�,,,���, � f 6 •••, i• • .....17. : A -1.„:...,.„, .......b, I 1111111111L,. II `�i ' 0x.. £ : �!!�/ � .' '-•'mow. .,. t'"' /di azir , 1 ?A, 't N4ighwi A.4.4 i • .1.111.....',lilt Illhkiii:.5..:;..tt‘ko.'kZik:...:ih. ' V Si ..."':.. : :.:._Ili ..r .;,:t.g, 1161%441N \ t • ''r '''-°.): i :', ,.. Iiiilirk . , le - �a . L a Y tel: i .".+s �. hf.r:. Y z i - yy, .w • f wr. r ,. .• 'r " "` '"a „r'�•...r. .q� z • " �" ' • gnu x.: ow ✓ :^t w i wf ,,,�,: a ,^ f tti �u� t .1+r' i`.. .. - .. .._, -"'.4... .'h .., -`b'r „"Fbr<.s aIPr�4:i« ,..,.�� ` �� n'�,. i '"'": "+" ' ., sarr 4:4 '—'`"--"T"' •-, _ . "^'''' ',∎;013 ;,` s . *1 `t ",!.Y+ • °� wt. -y,,. '4 - - j _ rt ,,,,,L..§.1.• .. K" i"YIEej .r..qt,.. ,r^ M"1Y,, * , .1,1X..**,4n'41.7-7-7,4 �.."74.,..: t , •;r''5"..,-' s y t. L,' .E» ,".��m:". i _ :`3fi •; � �. �1��/�� /*^�' �^/�- `/~,/^_' ~r' RISKY BUSINESS: The Economic Risks of Climate Change in the United States A Product of the Risky Business Project: Michael R.Bloomberg,founder,Bloornberg P ilanthropies; 1 05th Mayor of the City of New York;founder,Bloomherg Li . Henry M.Paulsonjr.,Chairman of the Paulson Institute;former US. Secretary of the treasury Thomas F.Steyer, retired founder, raraton Captai Management LLC Risk Committee Members: Henry Cisneros Founder and Chairman,Cityview c;apftal;former U.S.Secretary of Housing and Urban Development(HUD);former Mayor of San Antonio Gregory Page, Executive Chair Cargill, Inc.and former Cargill Chief Execunv~O':ce' Robert F. Rubin, (.mCharrnan,Counril on Forego fteletions;fo mel U.S. Secretary o/the Treasury George P.Shultz,Thomas W.and Susan B. Ford Distinguished Fellow at the Hoover Institution;former U.S.Secretary of State;former U.S.Secretary of the Treasury;former t.J.S.Secretary of Labor;former Director,Office of Managcrrient and Budget;former President, Bechtel Group Donna E.Shalala, President, University of Miami;former US.Secretary of Health and Human Services Olympia Snowe fnrmeru.lSenauzroppcsenung Maine • Dr.Alfred Sommer. Dean Emeritus, Bioomherg School of Public Health; Universty Distinguished Service Professor,johns Hopkins iJniversity le (IL 4, 4 • /4„,„ 4 . PI; kgcl,i9;OpnOffilAlijfics,409#014AtgrAf#40404.0:!!0:-f "t4. z4T 5artw .Y4t4er,:,!"441,:.;,..- 7. ,,zi,....-V2e;/,,A-:*,‘ ""A"!rir I'mw"tvs, ":4,t'va.;0:•= 4 , % r Fik :11 T r A r i r. S 4 ti rig g ��'� ; q2.31t; e~'/v] ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS leu��uuhm� Kah^Gn �ooc^ecuoveO^e�co/ cfre riskassessment'sndoa|ah\edoudcompobng(pro- RiskyBus|nessProjcct,ULIWm�homindependent es< over 21)terahytes of climate and economic data) research commissioned by the Risky Business Projecr, m provide decision-makers with empirically-grounded Special thanks to Matt 1 ewi , Risky Business tIniest and soatiahly-explicit information about the climate risks Communications Director,and jame.sine Rogers,Rsky they face.The team's complete assessment,along with Business Project Manager,for their editorial support. technical.appendices,is available at Rhodium's website, dimateprnspectuy.rhg.rmm.Interactive maps and other Research Risky Business Project co-chairs Michael R. content associated with the Risky Business Project are Bloomberg,Henry Paulson,and Tom Steyertasked located acris»ybusiness.org. the Rhodium Group,nn economic research firm that speda|izesinana|yz|ngd|sruptiveg|obWxends'wichan ihe research team's work was reviewed by an indepen- independent assessment c.) the economic risks posed cent Risky Business Expert Review Panel composed of by a changing climate in the U.S.Rhodium convened leading climate scientists and economists.A fuli list of the a research team co-led by Di. Robert Kopp 01 Rutgers expert review panel is available on Rhodum's website. Vniversityandeconnm|scDr,So|omonH»iangnfthe Funding This report would not have been University of California, Berkeley. Rhodium aiso part possible without the financial support of Bloomberg • nered with Risk Management Solutions(RMS),ffieworld's Phil r hropies the 0 bce of F lank Paulson the largest catastrophe-modeling company for insurance, Rockefeller Family Ftrnd,the Skoli Global Threats Fund, runsurd ice an. inv. in ii in in gemm it cnrnp tics and the TomKar[haritab|eTrust. around the wuriP Do team leveraged recent advances in climate modeling or ' minI researd`' private sector PLEASE NOTE:Several numbers in this report were updated nnSeptember 8,20/4 to reflect the most current data from the American RISKY BUSINESS The Economic Risks of Climate Change in the United Stales k/2,3/11 5 /0A- • • , • • _ . • , • • .C,:.---/ (i)(z?)/6 i t)iii' T s K vla. �, ys � _ 1 .ti 4 " 4 t rl _ �c4e s �$ £4 F ' i1 ti w Elf a " ":£' ,. IP% 3'. $ -.1',..,-4`.,,::.,";',..-:,....-;,.- �sa 9 � 4k 9 e,d ,1,:;..... } s e'er �� �+ �s K-3� tisi ,�• i ���� x�� � ��g¢� .�,'a a� � h £". ✓:q � stn a � � q+ , � �� ; t ;� � t i$ `r i a,: '".. `,,'ds ;„< d 4 1 ” �. .TAE,;�° ' e ti" a~x� w ' �'� �� ,. , max � 1070:,-,!:es from i£°(5, f ir)oLat�;g, oriiti liS,' it '.f ,:x at e already .1 i )tip f 7 f i s i//m ; t) i-)! r t-sr''. C t ` f1 l 'hand in i'�e lr' °tit°, City vv„ "? iP"tm t l? Andy With the ocean, � s of e n elil` en th7e. clir"i�iate �;h7ur gii`ng",, the Risk ly i.lsinless rep:7f."")rt etails the caste `inac ion in ways s t i easy i, #{r i_'triad in uo/#ai.` C(.£li#+.$ k t i( d o£3si it to i€ r#ti,,i"e- - i r r r i eat ,,:il.The It sk 3tt< ness research focused orl the i rle V.S.:::l.c: tii+,n EI{, �.,:�;ru�diverse cr_o:rr�ttric risks � - - Y .t. i-, I x [ r. dearest ancd rncsi ec{;nom i.cally SI�:inif icrclrlt of these risks: from dime.e change. �r :51gnt; u'e e tfec.is of from<:1 -in duced climate change r >in,seas,it creased danl.gm. /Damage to coastal property and infrastructure from from storrn r ne, r .n, r:rit i_= ,i< t rising sea levels and increased storm sure,cli- heat ,)11 .1 re:it ,. ,;,,, _ =lute-drive+n.changes in agricultural production and nation's current assn rd <rt,;oirtit< < nem( ''ft.',Jit Y=, enemy demand,and the impact of higher tempera- tures on labor productivity and public health 1 to date,t"let F'has beer:E T rP_t(.Cl:,ive we: re:rs t:-_1C IE:'.S(:'.c rch Com bine_s .)eer reviewed climatE sci('nce of the ec:3rrc�mlc risks:�rar r?,�tJc.rt faces rralal the changing i climate. Risky C3usir,ess; The(cur omic Ris;;s u Climate l�rojectic;ns through the year 2"00 with empirically de t:;hca+�r;e to th>United States uses a si<anci<.rd risk-assess- rived estimates of the irn'‘)..a ct of projected charlf es ment approach to determine the range of potential in temperature,precipitaon,sea levels, end storm +' G the achvit `)''1 tttf 'l).�.ecor"1f_)f't1x.We analyze not onl those consequences for c.ar_rr''e<:,i,arl o, l:.U.S.i ,> tt,well as rar } y y selected sectors of the economy If we continue on our outcomes les roost likely to occur,but also over p3`t'babilit y RISKY BUSINESS The Economic Risks of Climate Change In the United States Q712 /���� / �/ �� l[V��� ����&d��� ,°- "°� ��,««.'��»^" ' ^ high-cost dima�fut re�UoUkeaoyob�raoUytoda�' [�n�o�� �hox�e �o�oa� h,�mrer/ Loan �a|�p,�dc���ic�nu���r�im�c�� ' q«an�Kinsomecasesprov�in�coung/|eve|nesuu our reaerchf»c«sesonc|imaa|mpoco�om0odayouL �o�»cycar2100'�h!chmaysecm �ro�tomonylnvcs Ou/�n�inX��hovvn,ati[mecon�ioueonourcurre:rparh' �« sungpoUcymake,s� 8u�d'ma,eix;�accsaeunosua| manye�|onsc�0heU�lfaceuhep��p�c of�e�ouseco' io�har�o�urerisk�aredirecdy�ed�oprescmdeci�ion5. nomice��t �omd|m�erhan�e�Hn�ever|�mechoose [arbon�ioxideandodhergeenhouse��sesuannay a�i��ren�path--if��a�a��pess�e|yLo both adap��o intheatmo�phere��rhundredsorcvenrhousands thechan�in&c/im�eandtomit���e�uureimpa�sby »�yearcHigherconcentmUonso�/hese��sescreate reducin�oarbon:m/ssmns—vvecansi�n|�ont�reduce a'�reenhousee��c�'and|eadtoh/Xhercemperatures' ourexposoretothe�or�economicrisks�mmdimate highc/se� |eve/s'ondshi��inC|obo1wea�hcrpaoems� chan�e'andabodemons�ra�e�|oba||eader»hipondimare� Thccffensar�mnnu|nu*c� 8ynccacUn��o |owc, Cejrff4,4rnVititMltjtttkNf':9V§!ttikOKVIF;LviaiN6!::;#rl,,9.:E:Ei'k'.''n'ii64WM'=.:,:!..1.::aiktAtili:;14kOrl.!:.:.,..".:4...: ;:: ::::ii:;. ,t*glrt7V4:4ii'gtt,t,ri‘:k4f.:!117.7%.1;iji.i*tf;"!'r.,:l.:*tt;V.WtTnk:i;27ai(iiiij#1„rrM::::.ci'-':f'::::4,4*-. N: AilfgriaTit*Ottni igZ*4*;Lint4ttltW#:,t,.:::i; 4',#ttt,M:t';;v%):vi4f4-4Mtr.',. *;4:lgiffi0*Itt'•4itz':'Vcg;4r-*CYhMfti",t,o!°::'Ciiigiti.##C$ttft645t ::icftiiOtgltf‘ikt'44.4fitOME:tfil RISKY BUSINESS ,1 Th.Econ.... . .h 0� L�� � � &����� // ~ m ��F��l[Ul�� ��������� ��x���nx*� ��o^oo,/o�xxn ' 8rccnnov���a�em|a'. ' `�oouy' nensmnmak�'spm ^ P'upexyNsash air:ea |eve rise are concentrated \n place processes rhar:nu ease ove all risks tomorcow spi'cri rrtoarrr>'0 the U.S..esper.:iafly on the and cacti year those d 'ci i1tiK'i5 ;i' '' rv''. 5' ic t coil Adantc coasts.where the rise is higher broaden and deepen choser|sks. |n some veyS,c|imate and the losses far greater than the national average. change is like an interest Ofli7 roan we ac NU 00 OH tiii.' ~ Extreme heat across the nation—especially in the backsoffxturegencrauons:ThcywiUbestuckpayi»go'r Southwest.Southeast,and Upper Midwest—threat checumu|ac|veinte,estcntheCreenhc:segase:«!ssi»»s ening labor productivity,human health,and energy we're putting into the atmosPhere now,with no posobkh systems tyofactua||ypayingdownthat'emissionsprinc|pa|.^ , By the middle of this century,the average American Our key findings under score the reality that ifwcstay will likely see 27m50 days over 95°F each year—two on our urierrr emisccn'i with,our climate isks' 'iH to nore than three times the average annual number ' multiply and accumulate as the decades tick by.These oJ95,F days we've seen over the past 3O years. By risks include: the encr of this century,this number will likely reach 45to96 days over 95~F each year unaverage. ' • Largescale losses of coastal property and infrastructure As with sea level rise,these national averages mask / |fvve continue onou,�current path,by2O5Obetween regional extren�es.especiaUyin the Southm/est. / $86hiUion and$1D6bi|Uonvvushof existing coaua| 5»«dhea��.an�upper �|dwesc.vvhichwU||ike|ysee several moothoof9S°F days each year. propel y will likely be below sea level nationwide, with $I38 billion coa5c7 billion worthofproperty " Labor productivity of outdoor workers,such as below s,-a level hyZ 0.. ~/ r�nsewormnBmcu^srrucncn, ud||tymamtenoncc' ' landscaping,and agAcuKu^e'could be reduced byas , Thereisal-in'20chance—ahouc the same chance much as3%hy the end cf the century,particularly in asan American developing colon cancer;uwiceOs � the Southeast. For labor producdvityacross |ikdyasanAmericandevc|opingme|ancmn —�ha� � context, the entire labor force dedinedabout l.5%during � bycheendofchiscenturmorethan$7G1b!Uion U.S.� the famous"productivity slowdown"in the 197Os.` worth of existing coastal property will bebelow mean sea levels,with more than$730 billion of " Over the longer term,during portnons of the year, additional property at risk during high tide,By tIre extreme heat could surpass the threshold at wbrth same measure of probability,average annual losses the human body can no Ion gem mai.ntan a normal from hurricanes and other coastal storms along tile core temperature wilbcruc d.c conditioning,which we Eastern .,eabnardandcheGolf ofMexicow|Up,ruvv measure using a"Humid Heat Stroke Index"(HHS!) by more I ran$42 bilion dire to sea level ri.se alone, Durirrg these periods,anyone whose job requires /PuoenUa|changes iii hurricane activity could raise this therri to work outdoors,as weil as arryorre lacking figure to$1OJbillion" 4 RISKY BUSINESS The Economic Risks of Climate Change in the United States • � ��� /�~ `/ _-_/ '.-- ~^'. - ' EXECUTIVE SUMMARY �n����wv� w��o�o-x��o�u -- ---- access to au'condroorring,wfll face severe health risks cirangc cr10 its decision making pr mess.We are already and potential death. seeing this response from the apr 5 dliii iii and natior 01 ^ Demand for e|e�ncicyfor air condidonmgvviUsurge �cu ,y�*ccors� 'ea/c�cas/n�ro�eeicfmm ��ehond in those pansof the country facing the mcst�treme marke�and mi|iUcsas�eU. Bu�business sciUcendsm »empemmreinceasessu�iniog��iona|�eneratinn esPnnd»n�'o the ex�ntthat these�sks|nrerseowith andoansmissioncapac�yand dri�ngup costs for corcsho�tenn�nanda|andp|ann|n�dc��inns� cnnsumerz � e also know tnat the private sei:tor does not operate • Shifting agricultural patterns and crop yields,with in a vacuum,and that the economa runs roost smoothly likely gains for Northern farmers offset by losses in when government sets a consistent policy and a /(8u/a' the Midwest and South m'yfomcwork within which business has the freedom /� As extreme hea�spreadsacrossthe middle of the to operate. Right now,cities and bogoessesarescram- coun�rybycheendo��hecenru��sumesmiesin /he h|ing toaUaPttoa changing d/macewithout sufhocnc �nutheas� |ovverGreatP|ain�'and �idwe�r|�kup federal government support, resu|unginavinua|^un to a 50%to 10%loss in average annual crop yields funded mandate by omission'to deal with climate at the (corn,soy,cotton,and wheat.),absent agricultiral local level. We believe that American businesses should adaptation/ play anacUverole in helping the public sector d�erm|ne v how best to react to the risks and costs posed by climate " Atthesametime.wmrmertempemturesandcarbon feoUizadonmay improve agricu|cu�|producUvity cha»gr'andho««t»settheru|csthacmovethecoun/ry for ward in a new,more sustainable direction. .&^ and crop yields in the upper Great Ploins arrd other /` northern states. With this report,we call on the American business ^ Food�scemsare resilient otanabona|and global communitYtorise���he�h�Ucn���n� /ead�hem'ay |eve|'andagricu|tum/ producershaveprovenchem inhe��in�reduce�Umm�mrisks� wehopecheR|sky se|vesextreme|yaWemadnp��ochan�io�c||ma�e Business FrNec�miUfoci/ioterhoamonbyproviding cnndk/ons.These shi�s' hovveve�stU|carry risks for �'ihco|mformadonabuurhomdima�echan�em»ya«�c� /heinUiv|�ua|��rm �commuoNe�moavu|nerab|e key M to projected climatic changes. tics is only a first step,but it's a step toward getting TheRisky BusineoPn�eaisdes�nedoohigNight A:xehcaonanewPach |eadin��oamoesemre' mnre climate risks to specific business sectors arid regions of certain economic future. the economy and to provide actionable data at a geo 2raphica|ly granular level for decisiorr makers. It is OLU hope tha it becomes standard practice for the Amer icon budneosandinvesrmentcommunitytofaoordimaoe RISKY BUSINESS The Economic Risks ot Climate Change in the United States 5 *1""" :' Ce 2, l5 to A- c 1 ; = ,,.'+' '•, . •,p .. , 3 - 7a,,�rt ,ter r° i, ' '.-;',',.,t,';'•-..4,,,, 1 , ., .. air Wit` Mir i 11'•.' a�" -r %px:�F..,:!' �s=}'' rr � x .,.y"�x.r y .� r �` ` � �,r tt "c •_,• i 4, • ,:t9.. '=••• ';..-„:',V,...=• „' ,.• ,P4:3''.::.",reM44,:,i,".:',{,1;i.*-t, .,-:‘•:. '.)-`,'-'l'-,-`;'•!::,...1:.,..-iii,p,,i,-).,:,, ,p,*,,,,,, '";-- k•7 .%.;j-. ',.,?.r!-,:4,:v"+ :x:'„r<xr,';v�v 7> -�I ti, '"v'.:,. ' * .i r k '71..'''44 q a;.'.'..:y27:1• 4 <p V" 41_ ' ,, :+:. ...x 1 > s- ;�a ,, r v } .'i r s•�,'�} ;..,.•S:'.'«a�'� 'at' > �F'1E:)'ci•(Y.:.:�'!�• �E''.:r :::::::,4„,,,,,::4,..,u» ,F }:,�_sals .'��rnM.r. - '> -"F"i C r.', w .iy'. r) tvµ��,n z.: ;iii• t t-'�✓'r S<: 'r"J'' _7". g .. .. ' n, ,...s. 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Americans understand risk.Our ability:oevaluate ri�k--cotake calculated plunges into new ventures and economic directions and to innovate constantly to bring down those nsks........has contributed immensely to the . nations preeirnnence in the global economy. lrom tI ' private sectors pioneering ventore'cap8a|financing mood to the governments wi]Hrigness 10 mivesl in early-stage inventions like the computer chip or.the • solar paoe! / rnation'sabUitymidenUfyandmaoau potential risks has moved the economy forward io exciting and profitable d/ecgons`/ / A'fi7 ,401111400.14414,4. The Risky Business Project!s designed to apply risk as- -c s memmcheoidca|isoueoidimonechanQe,andm take a sober,fact-based look aL the potential risks facing specific sectors arid regions of the national economy.As bvonrelhe flood Varheslown.{ommwm'��� in a classic business risk assessment we anaiyted not only the roost likely scenarios,but also the scenarios that, puh|icandprivateseuorresponsetodimatedhaoge|s while less likely,could have more significant impacts. a year that locks in futum e ciirriate events that will have Ourmondosion�TheAnoehcaneconomyfacesmu|t� a far m»ede«asmt!ngeMcc on our|ocaLe�ona|'and p|e and s�ni�cancdshsfrom dimatechange.Climate naUona|econ«mies��n»eo«e�bo`hgovernmenuandthe condidnnsvar�dnomaticaUya�rosstheV.5,asdoeu private se�o'are makinginve�meotdecisionsmday_' themixofeconomicactivity.ThosevariabonsvviU v»hethe/i»ProPe�� |»»g�e/minha�ructueor�giond beoe5tpurecnnomicres|1ienretufu�u�edimadc and»at|»na|suPP�chains—that wU|hed|recdya�ectcd by clirnutc change in oecndes to come. changes.But each region of the country has a differ- ent risk profile and a different ability to manage that /Our n. >ecsnent finds that,if weac�now'the can ^ � U.S.� �sk/Thereisnn single top-line number that rep- /i•evvoot sign/hcantlyreduce resents the cost of climate change to the American o 'riot c1 Costly( iirifito' 1( s -bv,only irwc economy as a whole:We must take a regional i hanging our business arid public policy practices today. ) approach to fully understand our climate risk./ The Risky Business Project does n .. dictate the solutions Given the range and extent of the climate risks the to rlinitite change;while vve fulty to eve the U.S.can American economy faces,it is clear that staying on oLir respond to these risks tb ough sirciote preparedrmrss and current path will only increase oum exposure.The t),S, rnitigatior,we do not arpue for a opecific set or corrihi.. climate is paying the price today for business decisions nciioi of these policies.Rather,we document the risks made many years ago,especially through increased coast- and leave it to docisicin-makers in the business and policy al storm damage and more extreme heat in parts of the communities to determine their own tolerance for,and country.Every yecir that goes by without a comprnhertsive cpcghc reactions to,those risks, RISKY BUSINESS | The Economic Risks m Climate Change.the United States 7 1;).- 141 Io,,P,-, ' v i ,C'kr i •.. x „ %L"v x� :zN> . 's4 ar ' ..3 i..,.s sf N 'O ! .y:w:.�y01,,, < L T [ � fi M ` A .r ze t " � s� . -,.;.....,;.....t'� \ •:eig ti n• . '. c ;., .. :•3 '''='::. . t x E • . ;4 a '.:rte' ter, :' z 4 i■ ,• N kk• lc+. n _ :n... rc 4 . � q� s• , .. . : .....L. • s .„, ., .. .,...,,,- ....,. ..... ..............,...: ::...:.:2„,:.,, ......,..:.... . :.1,..,..:....,..„, „ , ,„. ... ... 1 , .,...:•:::::::::, ,&:.:.. .....:::...i..4.:.4::::.1,•:.::: :4 .-,::,,,.,7-' • - , ,,,:, -,,--,•,,, •-:4' \ . .-0 •:•• f • , ., .":":".:''''4.?;ii, :”:.1,1.k. .:.•,:....Is: -";:'.."''''';' ' ..,,,-'. 5. it '` - 3:.;,,..: ......• . ,..,w ,:•:,.....,.....,.:.. . as :5 '^ 'i' .. - — S to _ t^ .r.' # � itV' 4 R fi ' * 43' A , l EY . • 1 il!::�:`.:'?`�' s4,.. *_ orr;:: *, ti .s-'� 4.,1 { ,,,(( : ,.. 4 - '• • .. �''' 1. •xM..£ ^Fav !:ate:' :. ... «++,. afs, ,;: A couple is rescued from their home on Galveston Island,Texas,after a hurricane +x" ;aw . +"',1r''"'`'^ ,, """"""`" Agf • E . ».. . P/1-3//_ /0/Jr eie-- ' ' • . . , . . , . • ',',- ` •,.",`...,','., :,.,c.:-_,,;,;. 5:-. .r=4,?,,,,,;t-W,0-..., . - ' ,..''-,';',' ';'.'.'' *,' • '-'--:.' i:::•:7',.,•--;::: ':::*ili-i;,':4•V$''''‘:IT ' • - ' -- • - 44:-'' '' '. - : ' . ' - :'''',':'f.';' •-•' . ,It'f;x7:t:'4' t•=9,1,,i', . -' . 5 r:-';''j-,',,, ,,,',,;'1'.''' ' -:,-'` ' . f ,,_--.-.-,7,m- s,;••-`; -z 1.4%.:7,"iWi..,, . - ,' . '•-'f.,- :,- -•.' +--':. '--',,,,-',.. ,0,-.,•7•.r.,,,,•:"4,,,t.ik,` '.•,:;',::-.`,.-.;---..,',-,.._--` -,,g' . ...a.,4%,4,"'": .,,-..1.-,_ ',.',": \.,•,,k.: .4 -,1,,,;',47.4•W..'.:-;•:•..- ' ' - .- - . '-,:- , . : •'- .-''';`,`,-; ..,...r.::,:z.,.;,3.7:i.,,,:...,,,,:, .<.,„:... , r :. .- • Agril,',„egi.'r).,,,,,,,.....,-6-74t‘.,', k;.,,,,:.-4,-,;;7; ?..:. 61YV7 .1-^t177:.'.., .7 0, . ',:' ,..i;..• '::...-o.t----'ilet*" '. ' ',- • -., -.,',,`.' ' ',-.,'i,•:,/,, . :-';:,;,.:ri,,,,,"':.,f,','.::%`:''' ''' '10!::‘-:. r--7-• ;..-jr:.; '' S.; ' x„.;..4 ' .: '.- ,- ', ,:%"7';. • -..„ .,,, '•-:.- `.:. ,.-, '•.,-` , - .,,-,,..--.,.- -•;5.,,n,,•;-, -*.,.:`,:.;iit'";:s-t1,14,t-fc,,,',r*,.." - - •-'',..-‘ ' "•:iz-;-: ; -..----- ' aka ■;""*- 4. is,i'.' : ...,;I:' . . - . ...^, • ,. r - - ,'•• / 144,71 [r.,...1.4 . . . • , ,. , I • UNDERSTANDING CLIMATE RISK . , I know a lot about fittat7c/cd.,!,:;.:,-; --,,)fact, : ,.,,:,. -: . . ..,,-P.,- :.,:y.',:‘(.,,y risks and(h,tp7r;:. ://:1-)f.;:i::,“T-ii =, °, T y 2 (,.. : ;,,,,. . ,, ., .-)1 ,- ! : :,)on?,‘,,,, . A a order to know how to best respond to climate change. Assessing and managing risk Is how businesses,mill- we first need to fully understand the risks it presents, tar es and governments are able to remain pi oducuve This is our core principle.As Risky Business Project Co and::uc(ossful in,..1P1 inc.!easingly,or.nplex,volaide,and Chair Michael Bloomberg observes(:If you car it measur e nap:ads table gloi.);.1 economy, it,you can't manage it.") • . . I ■ ' , 1 / 'i' '.' '' *'; // :4: :' .'i (:;;': : 17: ''"' ',.':: /%':-*;:(.-;'.:l:' ,2;;;:V/: :'',' -:':(',/,' '',f ; :///?:// d. Ihelrisic.eta future event can be desctibed aS"the. ..:,..:futures thetwould be either cbtiside : : ter or ' . ,':.'i!i.r o l i 7 i i b i l i t y i o r i i i i i i h O o.(I)0/00 e v e n t c e i n i i i b e d'-. i 4onsideitbly v i c e r S e than the Tit3saJU. is a , :. :'i f i r i t i f t h e'S t i y e t i t y O f k S.t o t f S i t t l i t e t t l e e$,M l e t 0MEtink;: t o n u n e r s risk assessment pprco,ch in other areas .•., i.• '.-tiorinf li,Kelihoeiren4 soieriey diternii,*afs,hither.-:-r,,ith,ii4tentiefly.cetastrpp,h,t,cfMcumese incluthng di:4,,;-.,•,, ', ' . ."-:,...,,,.:.• high'brioinf:107,11-tritiiit4.400Y IJKAirtf,41: '' ' ' r':kiti;i1.11110,I:.kil le ii'''• .',e;defense tilennini...`,4 . . , . .. ., •, . . . , . . . . • • . • , . • • , . . . • ., , . , . . , ' . .' --• ' , . jn'M . . . - • , it.e.4 ,-...a. ‘e- ,,,,f,'... .,'''',.::... • •.-.r .. ' • ' - .f.,,,,,,,,,.,: - ' - AS h .14140 chance(or „,.: hilid.'. , ` '"';''e ,,'-''''" '' '. - , ' ' •rsithari(Uri?-, than)a'particulav,-, . , . . , , .. , ,-, - ' . - - 71,T ' ' . g,/,,''':Cgr ' s''', •:,-: - =,; -:— ' :itg;:ike , .-.‘:•,;.-,-t„ii4`- I I r...i...,. r • . . . , , . ■ . . I e ` • eet.2 /1/_s • � r g ! •. _ ?.. ta N The risk approach is well suited to the issue of climate Moreover,all these conditions can and will change based change.Even the single term"climate change"is 5}1Ort- on the actions we take today and lntO the future,as hand for a diverse array of impacts,mostly stemrnirg well as on unknowable factors such as the precise rate s, Arctic r.. from increased heat in the utriloSpriP_re.and():earls, but of/1rltl and Antarctic ice CTlelsr!1l"`:U5 the"change"part also radiating outward in myriad and geographically of climate change is the crux or the matter:To plan diverse ways. For example, in some regions sea levels will for climate change,we must plan for volatility and likely rise,while in others they may actually fall.in some disruption. ,' areas we will likely see increased droughts,whereas in Risk assessment gives businesses a way to plan for others the combination of heat and humidity could lead change.From PricewaterhouseCoopers's 2008 primer,"A to physically unbearably outdoor conditions,with in practical Guide to Risk Assessment": creased risk of heat stroke for the many Americans who I The ability to identify,assess,and manage risk work outdoors in sectors" ilJt_il..S CE�n�trt.lCr€i7r, utility maintenance.rl.anct is , t v i i.. ::,,, is often indicative of an organs ation's ability to espot id and adapt to change. Risk assessment as organizations to quickly remogni."_e g1 s 41$112r4411116110161111PINVIRMI potential adverse events,be more proactive 1000 and for ward-looking,and establish appropriate Business as Usual:Our Current Path risk responses,thereby reducing surprises and ---Small Emissions Reduction the costs or losses associated with business 000 Medium Emissions Reduction disruptions.This is where risk assessment's real Large Emissions Reduction value lies:in preventing or minimizing negative -Historical ° 6001 surprises and une d'thing new opportunities. 400 ' The Risky Business Project examines the risks of th:^.U.S;. a continuing on its current path,or"business as usual."This assumes no new national policy or global action to mitigate 200 _ - . . �..... o 0 0 0 o climate change and an absence of investments aimed at Years improving our resilience to future climate impacts.Taking these policy and adaptive actions could significantly reduce Our research examines the ti5K5 of the US,continuing on its the risks we face,as illustrated in Figure 1. current path,or"brie,• .s<<',ESct.o'"Rift,lyre pathways that include investments in(:Klaptotion or,r,c u y e[Iodds to min:gate ''117te rh: 1,., 111( t a 0000" Ss, i" ..aril signifiCOONV rt�4':P Original data source:Meinsho.rsen,M.,Smith,S.J.,Calvin,K.,Daniell.S.,Kainuma,M.L. T:,Larnartiue,J.-F., _ Vuuren,D.P.P.van, "The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2:300,"Climatic Change 109(1-21(2011):213-241,available at http://edge.gfc-patsdarn.a'e/pikiget/.509.'/0/0ce498a63b 150282a2967a9de9615698/5095.pdJf. 1 RISKY BUSINESS The Economic Risks of Climate Change in the United States rrz --3(/5 /0.4 N DER S ill t N 111 ��§ <a � s �,� 4 � # s bra"= 4 :,. .n:�,.. . v>..,�,. ,ar,`a, - Humor;society is structured ctrottod "tor of .`:,r.t e, 5 3 .51r.:, t I„t. ,,, ,-talls'are cstreow everus Such .r r , , �.. Cs �, 'I.C , 1 c 4 e r S - new normal,HEW extremes emerge,aar o`the pr; £ ,:i! „ : Source:Risky Business „< Our research,analyzes:the risks of'business as usual”to "Defining Risk"sidebar,p.9.)This focus on"tail risks'is not specific critical sectors of the economy and regions of unique to climate change.After all,households and busi- the country.We focus in particular on sectors that are al- nesses p y a:, a premium for insurance to protect themselves ready making large,expensive investments in infrastruc- against those tail risks,such as the possibility of flood or tore that will likely last well into the future:agriculture, fire,that they deem unacceptable.The mllirary plans for energy,and coastal infrastructure.We also look at the a wide range of possible(and sornetIme s highly unlikely) impact of climate change on America's labor productive- conflict scenarios,and public health officials prepare ' pandemics pr pare for ty and public health,which influence .:.li:p E f o o1wN or unknown eb:h liiy. sectors. Mese latter ,'/5C! also t c deep:,- r snort C7 �: Vvne iC kHlg 1 r l/::.T,t l hasp p ,c ul<'3l ly import to our shared future quality of lire, ant to consider the outlier events and not:just the most t ,,, 1 /�,with any risk assessment,our investigation looks at not likely Indeed,.ccna::r?s,in,.r.fi.d,the`nt�t1 t-: �-in-1 tJr7 year r.vr:.nt. only the most likely outcomes,but also climate futures today will become the 1-in-1 0 yea_event as the Earth that have a lower probability of occurring but particularly (on;inues to warm. Put another .,,y, ver time the severe consequences should they come to pass.(See extremes will become the"new normal." RISKY BUSINESS The Economic Risks of Climate Change in the United States 11 17/Zy1/5 Its- CE- �/ -/ . ~ .~ ��/' ...,:..0....,..,.:,4,..„,,..,.:Aly,.....,,...., ...N..:,',.dx,.,d'',44:--:''''C'4,■,''',A;;,";:t;fir,rqrr..:11.v*?'',.f°00,,,4„.41,-.;e...:4,---,-,„i,"4:101k,:;:ti.41.110.r,„4:44,W'V''.:,:t4„?4,..'P.4,:;",„1-,X;V.,.at.4%,,,,i1„:".::::', "e'.:.‘,!t'',.,.: ,.!" '... t Al ',7''', 't i I:: , c •••;/:'''::::r.'i'!'q';',..;\ 4S.IftEtifit .'..•• 1,',,,;'-'.'i:11.',.-'RE GT ; ,.,,::. , ,,,...,:::....,„,..: -t, .,..;.,t „ 0.„,i,::,,,,,:f ,.,,ii,,,i,„ ,,,Aitistv,„4: , .—\ i ' ''.'..,'',14.‘:.?''',.'? 74,N.,.'''. ,,"'"Hi,.,.;::,-...;.....- li.,.' ''' „,:::i.,:.,1).::, fis. ,......... ,.1,„,:, ,..,..,;.,...,•.,:,,,,,.,./,: , ,-,-;...,,... ..:-!,,...1,,,:..„;:,:,..,„.•,,,,,.:,.,.:, ,,,,,,,,,,,,:::,,,,,f,,, :::,... .i, ,:..,,,:„,,,,. , , .,::.,.•:.\.\\,..,,,,,A,„,„„- ,,,,,A,,,•:,;:„..„.:,.,,,„:$::•., . ...,,,,!. ....,,,,,:..,:..,.,:,.,. :„.....:,..,4),,,,,,,,,,„:„.. ,,,,,,,...,..1,..„ ,,,,,,i,:„...,,,,,,,...„.„...,-1,::„,„,,,,,,„,„,„-.-:„.,.,,,:::„:„,.,,,,„)::: .„--,.,,,,,, .,4, .,,' ,,,,, ,141 ..:::'sil,•:Q gi:'''' '',10..'"'lk.' ::.. :.r.tr--;.:1'.'4:1.. '. ..>:'--'..'...,'...:.....:-',4 i (if r, e,.,:‘'•:*;-,41',.',. ' ,,, 41,,:::::I.,-,; 161,,:::\.! ,r4 sr. ',:,:-..E:::,,i'l Talking about CI I r0 ye [i7o8ge /O1erm:,. «f//S, overoges is8AT TOKyl� 'PA«6eodn' /U t he refrigercit ot; nod �� fepr a i'(::' u7 ��� .:,vet , so OW2.,:if /YU � — Rsky Bus/mess Protect Cu'CMarTom S.,eye/" n47or risk assessment begirowbhdhesnaightfonvard These are oniy the rriost likely ocr n es:there are possible fact that humaninduced climate mange leads to rising lowe and higher estimates outsc<'tI ic nest likely range. temperatures. Wl.hin that range,there are also ticiarities,of tom so:As the maps that follow demonstrata some regions of the |fweconUnue along our current path,with nosignificant ' country will be fur harder nit by extri'rrie neat than others efforts m curb climate change,the U.S.will likely see sip�' ni0can��more�a>nabove95"Feachyear� oy/h�midd!c and somewiU experience'bingten/pc/acu'esm terms of wmrmer winters rather thanunhea/nb|esummers. of this cencury,the average Amer|can vviU|ikc)y see I7 to 50 days over 95"i each year........Corn double to 11010 than yVhat matters|snt just the neat, |/t the humidity—ocm triple the average number of 95F days we've seen over this case,a dangerous combination of the two.One of the past 30 to 40 years.Climate change imoacts only the roost striking findings n our analysis is that increas aoe|pratevvithdme'sothacbyrheendofthiscencury log heat and humidity in some parr.s of the country could wc will likely see 4S/o96 days per year over 95"r.That's lead to oLitside conditions that am'literally unbearable to between one and a half arid three months of the year at humans,who niusr rental/i a skin tempemali ii r'boom what are now considered record hot temper cru0..- Fe 9�"Finorderco effectively cool down and avoKd fatal hcat ' put cnis in context,by tire end ci the cereur y.r)re, i n, s,mka.TheUS. has never yet Seer:a day exceeding this Washington,arid Idaho could well have moreCaysabove chresh"!ciunwhn' wc call the^*o:odHrarSrr eke|ngex'" 95,Feacnyearchan there arecunendy)nTexas� ,.‘a u| |f�pcnnunueonou/ cu're«ro/ma�epach' chiswi|| ~ 7" �hand�w"ue /eaden�minecoxu^e :Lill Ulexpeoenc :rig'I such day a year onaven age ea:century's end and nearly'I/such trays per year by die end of next century. RISKY BUSINESS . The Economic Risks of Climate Change in the United States 13 &/25//5 ititr C f-- .,—. „„,--,-0,1,.......4,0;w:' ,-,.",",.,-.T.'zu,,,,:.• ,,,4„,:,,,,..,,,o,.. 1,,,,,t,,,,,,..,,,,..;.„-oii-o-e/.,-,,,..,:-...,,,;,'. =At 14,441, A'affftVitifsriVett‘-,4,mte,.:$4,,ori',..T,,„,*,A3i, -.,',/,','T,''',e4;:,:',N..,f„' ; i..,;„1'....-11,-A....44,01,,,,,-4711 ..,',, -,, -Int', ,(0 s",..,,i ..p;, . 1, , ., ftry..-...5.6,4,4,4,. -,4,,,...4..... ...4.4v.,.... ,'1,,, ,,:.,„,a.,,,,Leti., ,:st.f.; .:41.0'4,,,,)::5,20.:i.,:,,•44,,,...„. .4,1 ., ,.. . ....„... 414-, :it- ID*toii'IM vt 2414, , ''.=1,At - .;',;,,,,,,,,,..4,•:;:,,,,i,,,:.,:jr ;„,1 ,, , v„, ' :',,,,,.;"Ari,' /'',,„ ,'' .:::: ',;,,;y,'1,.,,,..r.144. . .. ;',4' ' W°17.":':,' ALg't c I . .;„-' ', ". , , U ; ' n Heat Map Key: E Fi:d NUMMI! n 1r, ,:: :i: 5'; 75 100 125 150 175 200 250 (),7 0„,, (Ill scot i)(..,,,i ,,?, ,,J,,), ,,,t,iii',kw);;pc 4firy „,.,let nis or„1,or t77er,A,rns rather than unbearable i ) t < f thi? sury)n-,ers. But by the end of this centtity,the average trete cloys oJc)ve!...,...:., /-t.,o(-,?yea,. ...c)rne I o , ,. . country vi//l be hit far Harder by extreme heat than American will likely see 45 to 96 days per year over 952r others, and some volt experretice'Is-mg teirlperattires Data Son c Rnoiliips, I/, RISKY BUSINESS The Economic Risks of Climate Change in the United States P/z.:3/i5 /0 —• (.',F--- . RESULTS: RISKS VARY BY RES01',/, g„-,, LI\ , ,,,,,,,g,—mit.,„.1.7fr„-37,B :- ;:.,',1,,,,''''' `,:' '..,.tR;p-P,.',";;',..:,,,,'" •", ,,/, ''',-' ,,„,..,,ziug, („, .., :47'`;'*:."1".t.'n:r'ilft,''''f I""' :',WC",:'1,',"416::.7,-- e,;,'■;,, /''k, :?/:‘,1'.A.E:,''"gt '- „tlp s,. V. Li 4 . . .. . * . , d of the centtiry, Oregon, v"Vasliir,i(iTton, and Idaho could o./ell I-Blyavt ehEr'reion more days above 95°F each year than there are curt c,)tly in see nearly Texas; babies being born right now in the So citl,iweist-their ir,;,,ie. s, four additional months of ay Jour days over 95°F within I ler , - , 1 5 RISKY BUSINESS (0/2.y Ok ( 1 . 1 iiI'S /2/1- e ' RESULTS. A Y BY REGION & SECTOR Heat is a critical issue for the�icartfi t businesses< .v��f � ,� � �i �# i � l �� ro ,rrnJre as that of human beings.On their Own, rising;,tern, err"a- �' it t ' _ � � y � '.i, ';la!value and VIaC.tilllV it.ures can have significant negative impacts on nealth and ' of many properties and infrastructure along also labor productivity.But high temperatures are also at the Eastern Seaboard and Gulf Coast. If we stay on our the root of several other important climate impacts that current climate path,some homes and commercial prop- have long been recognized by scientists: erties with 30-year mortgages in places in Virginia,North •A otter air on the Earth's surface leads to higher ocean Carolina, New jersey,Alabama, Honda,and Louisiana temperatures,which causes ocean expansion and sea and elsewhere could quite literally be underwater before level rise; the note is paid°V • Higher temperatures accelerate rate the rates at which land r0J3 Rising temperatures!r c s will also reduce labor ra ice melts,further elevating average sea levels; ar, ce c uvicy a- some , :Hr especially he St southeast and ol JtSt—bee C to, ;�hot by A warmer atmosphere makes extreme precipitation more likely,which 17 expected to make r retions. w, mid.terlut ry 1°' E:ectt:`ie no w,, 0 ulsi .e durirar;parts of wetter, out could also make dry regions eve drier. E c ly. _) �, geographically heat will also put.strains on our energy system, Because the U.S.is such a large and geo graphicu ; diverse country it will experience every one of these simultaneously decreasing system efficiency climate impacts in the next century. Even the individual and performance as system Aerators struggle to cool clown facilities,and increa sior>electricity con- sectors we studied have regional variations: For agricul- ) n•r"> c li ir:.d costs dt,�et.o a t r do rr<;r;d for air Cure,for instance,the. national story Is one of an ind.a fry i /// able to adapt by changing where and what farmers f,gut; u,EICIon trf at the same time, the story within particular regions is s AS p..Fts of it'i t.`_ h,-, 1 up,the,vC a `lea;th quite different,as individual farmers potentially abarr- e ' '� It impacts w ll t e to It among the poor nary don traditional crops or move away from the farrrming , ,;,1/ :yr whom,ho )r even live outdoors or" can't business altogether. For the energy industry,the story afford air conditioning at home mar,d among Loose too in the warming North is starkly different than in the elderly or frail to physically withstand the heat or get increasingly unbearably hot Sontea levels,too,vary themselves to air-conditioned facilities. significantly across the U.S.,and even across cities along the same coastline: For example,sea level rise at New More than any other factor,our direct economic expo- York will likely be higher than at Boston,and sea level rise sure to climate change will be determined by where we at San Diego will likely be higher than at San Francisco. do business. For that reason,we present our findings below in terms of the major regioris of the U.S.,anti then As In a standard business risk assessment,we look .d air identify how climate change will affect:Critical sectors the data to See exactly where the greatest risks lie,and within Illose regions,St!I as any :;,slni=s,person knows, confirmed that some regions and economic sectors face these" �l L�.f_i Y u_C(__ von'C be contained r?t:a F t.:-vt @i91 1 r{.Fit.rlc, bound- extreme acrd unacceptable ris{S. I hese are SUrne of olil" 1,,i ies; we i,r r;iii 3rE rri< 1, t"'t,s,.)acite throughout concerns: my. put.i;a. i e .,, u(-e tise not not where you are doesn't mean you won't feel the heat of clirrrrate.change.. RISKY BUSINESS The Economic Risks of Climate Change in the United States 1h3)14 104- e K Ai vs ,• f . w . , E� :4 e •4$ MN • ._ c3 ,,. , „ , r=.,-,1„„-; .;., = - , ,t...„ .....„......,... ,. ,,,,,_,..., -., .. 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'0 .. •Xy- ''.7' ' 4.:.:.- tri,.-7''',1t,-;,-.7.7,.:•-,T.,-,-,,;•.„,. .', -.:. .--. .- ;- 7,-:-_-,;,, 41 i .,, • --"" . , 1. ,,,,,,i-, .,--;5‘e..,..4•,-.4.,,,7,1. --;,-:-.-=711.- 7.-- ---' - ,:..,--— 1 G in •••• •• •••••,.. .....,, . _ ...., ..„ _,............._ • ,... . ., ...: _._ , .... ., ... .......__. . r .. . • 7. . 1 - 1 :.44::,,,..,:-.7-:;,,,-,-:--,-, , ,„_, _ . .-,_-_.-v,7:-_,:.."0":7 • i v.,.. . . ..,... — ...1.106-,............ , - .._ `.. ..... . - ' 214' .11 f' - ' • '" . . .■ . i .irdN;n:": .. „.. he Risky Business analysis builds on the research However,we were even deeper titan the NCA,conducting and analytical work done over the past several decades analysis down to the county level in some cases,and also by international climate scientist:s and economists, loc.t.;strT on key er.onotnic sators We overlaid our re•• including the recent National Climate Assessrt•ledt (NCA), t•• ,...11clid•ite It'st....t.;t findintts•‘Pi' :, r-,econdmic analysis released in early May 2014.The Risky Business Project. . •::....2r :iii -tt.•:,.•t•.....:..'; t t:, t• . ••MPaCtS within those takes as our unit of measurement the Natiohileirn3te 1 .• .::•••.;‘!::- . ..:t•• ,../(t•t••,..t.„. ....:•.•••••:• ••1•.-.tit most striking Assessment regions,which are organized loosely‘rit ouna t : .:::: :•.:t,t 1 t•,,.t.tlf.7....,,ti. ,it..::: .it age le,tdet s to go shared geologic characteristics and climate impacts.'" to riskybusiness.org to explore these regional impacts in These are: Northeast,Southeast, Midwest,Southwest, more depth and to climateprospectus.rhg.com for the Great Plains, Northwest,Alaska,and Hawaii. independent research team's complete risk assessment./ l • ,.'';',,,.. ._. . .,.,. r, - ., ', ,.. . . . , . . . . . , . . • ,.,„, . ' . .,.. . . , • - ' ,, • ..., . . , . - . , ., .,, , . „ . . . , . . , . . „ , . . . , . . , • . ' .'.-- '•,,. -,:.,.:.:.- •''. • • ,••. ' , '.••' ' :.:1:!..' :'-....,. - ;-. . , ..%' ' -T.'''''.'7.. ..T°'...a: ..0: east,,,w lc vit. ,,,:j 'r,' . ,..:,,,,s,..,",4!!lOtkhrOpili.0::::ii.„„„:::,,,...::Jgriginet#0.4.0(1., , ,,', '_ „, .=.:Ap',,,„:„:::,,,.:.....t::::gikroosp.",::::;:1„:,::,..:::::;•:!'-;:::Etleap:E0.00::::#0,4a levek:,.f`, , ,, a,,41.,rit;41ccoesibig10190.:::parreatisfarillus4.9011:::It - !:, prAhistentutywnaviatmearythavftericansr:11'i •• • "/ IhelY1.00100454.W r Mc.1.14."4::„.„?, eati •!. : :"- : 0;:c*ObuttiiiiAgfateitopikoletatid.ottitevi .- , atAiiiehtatiO4 • ' '. " 4404.10#4141057.11g$000g:40•'..r.".:::.0*itt:. ., ,. .. , , , .. , • . . . . . . . . . . , , . . . . . .. . . . , 1*/L' C � NORTHEAS laY ra'; .� expected coexpei-einn� a stzeaa|e |�����m� )nteml3mrattiresand everage nmmberof extremcAy hot ciays ever the course of the century, the reg|ciQ^s major c&imateimpact will be sea level rrs and its effect on coamta| infxast.mme,LVfe, Rising sea lev'*;are m. cnsequence of risirit; temperao.ir e .As toe nan,warm,they pane this phenomenon is furt! er esacer bated by landace melt, pa�icu|ar��ke�nmro|can�Green|and icesheerz ° damage'~-- New `- - Soentisrs have recendy round evidence of accelei at- log and perhaps unstnlo die and ice melt n West Product(GDP)is generated in chose counties.As a resuft, Aota,ccica.`^Afu,ther(ondmoreminoncontributo/ nir.ch of the region's residential,commercial,and energy to sea level ice 0novndivaterwirhdramm|.which cnn |n�astruccureis�|soo�ornea/sea|eve|'makin�these |ire'aUy sink the�on�ad|ac�n��orhcoeun�^Ucf ass nanmulirlyv'iincrabie to climate impacts. facmo--cherma|e^p�/`ann ueme/�anu� unuwwu./ rflLwstrlat if wr'continue curl wuhdwmm|—car|ead;chipher , nurcurnentpath. sea levels at New York(itywdl likely coasts. 11sehyan additional 0,9 feet to1,d feet VVhydo sea levels mauermrheAmerienccononly? list anUbemveen feet and 4.Z feet bydhcendnfthe and foemos�sea|eve| rise d`eanens the communihes ccntur� Because our hskaeeomentindudes|es|ikey and|nduxcriesa|on�ourcoasdine��Thecoag�are critical hut higherimpact possibilities,we also found a 1 do-iOU to the Northeast regions economy:Its mater cities ale chance that New York City could experience more than on the water,as are many of its major industries,from 6.9 feet of sea level rise by the end of the century.The New York's Wall Street to the fisheries in Portland. Maine. story for New jersey is even more concerning because of All told,88%of thepop region lives in that state's QmundwaervAJithdraviim|:It's likely that,onour coastal counties,and 68�uf the/e&ion`s Gross Cmme5Aic current oath Atlarrti.c City will see 2.4 feet to AS loot of sea 2U RISKY BUSINESS The Economic Risks m Climate Change m the United States C 4- .. .. . „, . .........-..-- , If''.. ' , ... ........, 4::'. -..:7E,:.,.•.;;,2 Ti,... ''',"?;.' ' `I''''is'''''''''Cif'‘I'''.11'!ii...'i.:C21 !.. ,..1,,,r+1 rr..1„,....1.-.;...1 ./. ! I r 1 I 1 I I 1 ,..: .,.......fiL ! 1 i C....g.1;q:,; ILLI- : " t . . ,. ,,,„,,.. ..,,.„,,,,,,,o.,;,;4;,L,;0,.t',t.';',';7;,'/./V.-.;"7..-.,.;•;;';;'',41'0,...:':i1E-'7..74:;:f.:.,:t.:;.',:;;.,1.-;;';',*.',..4,-41.,,F, '''';4n'Ofggifkriiilgir4i:Ortillt,4440.1i,4,1,,,,,:•„;a ,,, Sea Level Rise:Se:1 ievri!,..c it,/Cril:.. ,.. ri,',11.1:.:1,1Es.S8,%,of CI;e po,o;i1oLlot,c,;11,,, Tic,,, Ci'lit(ii r r) '•- -I i 6%,;,07:he PP=:,..,,:;:,:.(s ): ,,,,- ..,.. 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'I),,a,i,iir.1)o...,;..',4"I'du,if,,,•,:tile,, .,..,kic.,stli rourichri;9'1;,(ii(2re:)s. 510 170 74°1;;' 80 83'''.86 -89 92 95 100 11 Data Source:Rhodium Group RISKY BUSINESS The Economic Risks of Climate Change in the United States - . �x� ,�, �� �� �r` �r~ � .` � '''''''41. - w° '. , ` �� � ��� � . ` ; ' \ ���� ��^ level rise by end nfthL;COn[LSV.North at New York City,the will i.ikely ucrease average annual property losseS from se s slightly smaller Fd'nnr will likely expenence2 feet to hurricanes and other coastal storms by$6 billion to$1 4 teem by 2100,and Portland is likely to experience a rise of billion over the course of the century.Potential changes in 1.7 feet to 3.8 feet in the same period, hurricane activity,also caused by atmospheric warming, would raise these estimates to$11 billion m$23bi||ion-- just looking at the simple nse in sea levels masks the im a 2-to4-fold increase from current levels. pact these higher levels can have during a major storm.Sea level rise rhai had a|readyuccu,ned over the pascrenrury The Northeast will also suffer from increased heac, exacerbated storm surge during Hurricane Sandy,expand' especially because so many of the region's residents ing the reach of the sto .o 'elated flooding and making the lye in cities that have higher temperatures due to the storm more costiy.Out 'e:.,rrr.h hnws that, two coterie so'ca||cd^hmr|s|andeffccc.''|nc|ciesandnnccrorcgions or our r'jrrerrt part. dO1rrrO1 pro.c'ctt'd n,:k'v'l rise with mare.than 1 millon people,the high concentration of concrete and lack of natut al cooling systems like streams and forests can raise average temperatures by a�mochas5�4"F during the day and Z2"FintheeveninQ w,wo`mmv over the surrounding rural areas. -1,„.,,,.,,,,-,-,1,.. ..a 0,,- .,,,,,,,, ,4,,,r- ,...,..,,: -_tp.,,Ift,ff,,..,,-..„,:, 2,,,,,./,),;:e,.,.-,,,,.,..i, •=7 i,i.:if..:„.. '...',,. iii,..,,,-...,4,,,„,,,,.. *�»`, . Current oo yea:ump . increase by/mo Izn�e by mm M momobyn0 Source:Risk Mctrlagenim/siommm(RMS) 22 RISKY BUSINESS 1 The Economic Risks of Climate Change in the United States �� .J�� 4..)/v- 2* . �� ` ^ '� �� � /fflfi9TP°1 - --- — ' , . |'�' ~e ! / � � / / f 1 / / / . R�hn��cheNnmheeoisauua|�xaheruempemtem MI II, the summer,with only 2ada}o over 95~For':averageeach year a temperature we refer to throuhout ria 'eseanh as"eemely hot"By rnrd-centur ,toe average resicrer tn the Northeast will likely see between 4.7 arid 16 additronal ~ extremely hot clays;by late century thisranQe will likely jump to between 1 and i7 addiuca a!extri nwl h"t days,or up to two addftional months of extreme heat.As wediscusshu�herintheSoutheastsecdonbe|mwthese increasing�hnrsummersvvi||haweserinusnegatiw:,�t�s onhea|dh'mona|it�and|aborp/oduoivit� � 1 � \ �man - --__r�ato cool down during o Philadelphia heat wave.' ^�- RISKY BUSINESS 1 The Economic Risks of Climate Change in the United States 23 i i i telityts- /0a- ciL, ::_, :,..,,,,..:: .,,,,,..„.., ;:. :.,:iir......,...,:fl'-',,:.. ,,,, - ,,,,,.„,-',..,.., , . ~^^ - ~ ~ , - .,,. ,..-. .. .:...... ..,-,-,....,,!,..,:...,,,,,-;,. ..-'.5.1.iw,,.5„.:i,,:::,,..4,.::,47:!-;,-,,,,wiggtitill;g4.-e.:,;.. ..i...:‘...'„:...:' '''''.....?4,...„.„..' .,............: ".: , `,:titlit...Li,0 f0;...." ..: : t'','':2i:,2. 4, ~ �� . , . .,... ...„:„,,„:,,...:.:::::::::::::...„....i.„,:„.:., ,,,,„............,......,...,,,„.,,....:,..,.,„,„,„,,,„„,...,,,„,,,,:.......,.,:,,.......... ....„,,,,.:.:,.... ,„. ..,:.....;;A:.org...s: -.,I...,.;...., .,...:,:;,.. ,... :i:1,i i'L �_ °� � � ~`� �^ . . � ����,,,,,.*.f. ^ Like the NortN�ast, the Southeastern US. ~•.has many coastal coMmawnides, though - ` ^ '� ^ ^ �� in thi s region only 36% of residents live in l. 4.,,,‘, • �– ' , `_ ` '�. coastal counties, with 33% of GDP coming ��`t� from those counties. However,sea level rise could seriously threaten the ` Snutheasts coastal infrastructure,given that some of the regions major ciUps(e..,,,New Orlearx a ii at or helmm sea level while o,xe: (c�,fvliami)arel..)ui1ron pon)vs|imesunedi.lta!/owsvvnter/nungaunneven.nthe prescitoceofa sea wall N,'uchof the eglons critical loft a �muuo—inUudingnmdcmi|�pnn�aiqmus and oil and =~ XavtacUities—*|snsitsatinxve|evations. A resident kayaks down°flo ~ ' ` _/~'`� Our research showS a verficant risk to this ren'on from of the century.'There isa1-in`2U chance that more than sea level nse.On our current path by midcentuy, $346 billion in current Florida property will he undea- mean sea !eve|otNorfo|k.Vi'Oinia--hometothenation's ter by tIe end of this century,and a 1'in'1OO chance that largest naval hase- w italy rise between 1 1 feet ad more than$682 otion in property will he below mean l7 feet,and will rise ZI feet*z/IA feet.by the endof' sea levels.An additional$243 billion in property eU|likely century. However there sn I n 101)chance that Norfolk he at nsx Ocring hips one that s not at risk today. could see sea level rise of more than 7.2 feet by the end of the century(Figure 7). As ir the Northeast,greater flooding during hurricanes and other coastal storms,plus potential changes in hur |nF|orida'becauspofzhepnmus|imestone»«whichche ricane activity,pose even greater and more immediate major southern cities are built,even modest sea level use economic risks than mean sea eve rise, comes at a significant economic cost.Under current pro jections, between$15 billion and$23 billion of existing The Southeast will also likely be hit hardest by heat property will |ike|ybeunUdwvste'by205O,ar-‘,umberzhilt impacts.Over tire tact 30 years,the average resident of grows m between$Bbm|onand$208Ui|UonUyWae1d thisreAinnl'as experienced about 9 clays per year at95,F 2k RISKY BUSINESS Tho Ec000n,ic Rinko at CIinote Change in the United Staten g,/z.=;//_ . Ic:A-., . „.,.. -...z. .., .,., .,. ..• -.,',"; '- '''--,5„,?•,, t.,,,' ::',7":,),e7;,4‘ ,:"'••,. ": ....: ' • 4# *'-°.;,4t.,71,:4;•"' :*. 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Labor productivity:Cr (4,,,cul.H.,(7f cr7lis.sions pcIth,the ..,:,,,..kr'' ,„,,,,, •, Sea Level Rise:Sea le ! -, . o:-.;174,-,-;,.., ::. .I I, 4 11/i(7(0 Southeast 02.1,1Chl'In VOil 11 C0 :(X,IP:'111,fciee,::71:.y.f i et::II(iY)y 2 0u Psi rrororc/t 1r01,0(11(7 ceti1 or 'I'4:**;,,:9;' )3(14 to,fon,additional nionfhs-o eel ,.. ,, ,,I.,‘,1,...0i1, , ,,,, ..:,,„. ..,. .,..,,,,, -,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,, 7 -:-;':'''74 ,.,../e,,,,, ,, ..... Average Summer Temperature(!) • # Rim --, 95 100 118 50 70 74 77 80 83 86 89 92 Data Source:Rhodium Group 25 RISKY BUSINESS T Q(t3/!S i '� (12' ''' J6ktl 'r - xgv ^� > .r., n: x $ a TA3 ; v lf fie' r P 5 �' a�� , s✓ t s` ��.,,ut?�»-w°i a "; � s s w. r,� a� ew '-'-1 � ""r��j ��� j4,!:%iii.' 3 t4444, 4 � y. y,191::,,,',1',11,7:7, r -� a /Z� Nf t i#A R a,1 1 4,_ ` ` tiltlf;II F� 'e' ' � > f ' ' as',; ...41,� i# �, t .,4. _ ,.,�yr' .,.A r -?i ' A, ` op 151 1", iet,� C gl , )fs3 r iw 11 �i.it 3tl t °°nt€n 7) FF •� wig - ,Art ri C l - S N', �+w''e a'ya r ), '},fir,$:.e®.� fn sOUrCCcRMS , -,-:, : 4-4 .r., - lour additional months of extreme heat each year. f' rD t : "—} , u I;€ d of weather€ could have serious c:onorrl.c w �f Y,- :.;.ts C,t('", seal .n ai E7�•r;a decrease in labor pro .? D �`e ductivity in high-risk sectors h E et,nstructior?, mining?, t tilk:ies, -.transportation,a r€cul a€e and manufacturing of (: Median ft �t p to ,1 i by the e d of lt hi e r ceanctt ury n- 1-in-100 Chance ale but<til.not ceak f ob : in this regiounc,iaivnitry a ir l k e +:r: 1-in-200 chance low r ISK sectors like retail trade and professional services.14\ "l a We are also likely to see an additional 141 to 45 deaths raer �4 J 100,000 people every year in this region over the course of i It.we CC)rt r'l lc,o 1,,„: t the century d€.ie t.o increase's in heat-irelatted mortality, or above. _f ki ii ro <.! i Etri, i.?t, < '�t?Rin r a1_S < 3 ei ns du to t:'1( boat island _ i n , � t �t„ _ � , t r t�n o F�� i)r I€�O l<ot fi dti tit'ol�xi) 1 OJ r r r t<.h,t.pe r'y er r.exile nce ,.0(J, ”,e� > , <.e li i) ._D.n , }/E',.)1 by iliS? :. .:.. ..3ti.11.lil' .:, a, . . .. f year ?J ile ci :.Y i if .lit hat .ori' la is ' '_Ci f RISKY BUSINESS The Economic Risks of Climate Change in the United States ,_,,'''.. ''.:'•.'...i.'....)' ''' ' ter"P:i.:-..; i'4' .'''.■ '-' ..;.t.!r',,:.,,IV.:!!;:ff"4„V-1-4?"..0 2,,,i, '4 4;'',,,,',40 ;.°:' '''', 'e''''."`,;',*.:-•$::)*!:'''''tl'o,":", '•— ' ;°fr..P: " ' - °.., 4 .....,..T-rt.„'11 ',,,Or'" 7', ' ,'''''.,'Y'.',:N:.''' .., ,Ar"„*.i..'.°::';'*:i,,e4;4=i....t...e .,, ,..:. '.„,,.,..14........?--- ,,,41:4,-;,,,,,'."7.,:t'' '',Iv;.* . - "..,.- ...'' t.,,,4 4:'.1'''' ' ',.- 1,,,,1„. a�� $700 ' $700 i saaz mmedian | Mmeu/an $«oo _ �am_L ___ $300 | 1-in'100 $300 li $200 $200 $143 $100 $100 $o so FL LA MA MD NY FL LA MA MD NY Data Source:Rhodium Group As Risk Committee member Dr.Alfred Sommer has |f these Ompaus]occur in rural areas you)re pamcu!ar|y pointed out,extreme heat will have amajorimpactor) i:trouh|e.'^^He�oesonio note mar ii,[hirao,ogorine, the capooty of local hospitals:"We/ugdonlhave the (he1995heat,2vavo'1oca1ofOcia|�''didn'tcvcohovea suc&ecopnc|cy left in the medical system anymo/e. . p|acetoproper|yscoe |bodies:•Ionn]zhe 7O0 deac|o. , ma�:,:ccuoeduvcrayni,iUnumbc, n(days,"' RISKY BUSINESS 1 The Economic Risks of Climate Change in the United States 27 412-3/1. • The upper KXidxx.,:ds economy dominated bwCOmmmmtAiKyagriculture, with some of the rost intensive corn, soybean, and h growing in the vmid. 0ve'aU`eaitr:CU|rura| mduory nth\s includes mn/c '0.O00! per yearaso/ 7G�2anUrhp'e�ionaonunoforh9�o� nanona| prnduoioo andsoybcausa|nne,^ Fo/ cheMiduesccornmo0ig/ isa crud a| busi- neo.and the h*eirh and pruduc�|\Myof the agAcuKue| sector-is inextricably inrrmmined with climate condi' A fanner tions.Ourresearchshomsthatuoderthe^husinessas r ,�'r_�� ' .����^^` usual"scenano and arwurning no signihcant adaptation by farmers,some sta ',rn the region,like Missouri and and other adaptive practices,In many cates,crop Illinois,face up to a 55 rkely average yield loss in the production will likely shift from the Midwest.to the Upper next 5roZ5 years,and upo.)a73sic,likely average yield G'eat Plains, Nonhmest,and Canada,helping nn keep the loss by the end ofthe century.Assuming nnadapca,ion' U' arid gnobai food system well supplied. However, his the region asa whole fr.ces likely yield declines nfopro shift corilo put individual Midwest fdrnlers and far in corn l9v6hymid'cencuryandb3c/0hytheendofthecentury. munities at risk if production moves to cooler climates. Yet while the agricultural /ndostryvvU|clearly he affected The projected'increase in Midwest surface air temperm by climate change,it is aiso probably the best ectuioped tures wont just affect true health of the ret:tnori's crops; to manage these risks. I u eats have always adaoeod to it wiil also put the regions residents at risk.Over the changing weather and ate conditions,with adao past'10 years,the Midwest experienced only 2.7 days /ation and flexibility bui|/into theirbusiness models. on average ever 951 II we slay on our current climate AnineUwith m/o'mauon �|d firmeocan' path :;.he average Niiirlwesz resident will likely expeo' and�i||' miUXw,esnmc dnuuie 7mZ6Uays above 95~F each year and m|dcenmty,and 2Oto75addNona|extreme-heat RISKY BUSINESS The Economic Risks of Climate Change in the United States It - c/— 23 1 „ . , . . ., , ,,i , '' -' , ' .' ';,,.'",::'','‘,,,,,,,i! ,,,,,,,-,:;„ ',',-,.,,,,..f.,.,,,.:-,''''''''''.i''''',. -''2-..‘,',!',-":,,'' '-''''' ''. ,,5‘'.',!'„.';',','":1` ': i.:2‘,--.j•-::,-,:',,-',31f,gmr"-"":. -',,,'i.--,,,;',::L.:',,,:-..:..,—..iv.,,a-,,..r,,,,'-7,7',7:;,-;','"',..::::',..,:,,.:,:,.,"''.''-,',r.,''.;:,- ' - '- - ' 4----.„,„,.„-,,,4-,4,,,,---,-,,,,„-,,,,. 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",'th.:; Pf<an exi)e(.t'ct- I ,'s.,'''''';;,„.,..L,” Ag r lett I t tt r(!:,',41'1,',``'' ,Celz;0,34;),,,,,lid,ty are , ,,,,,, :',,Ti• ,,,, 4,„,.. -,..?,!;t..,..,,,,,„... „1,..,,,,,',4 -,,,,,,,,,,, that it Oirli b )1',.scli`e tc)r-cr ft-,,,-..,i. , oitirw.:, ...., Wilirir'1441.11., ,),.itd.,_:cvs ,t1(7(tiri-C AieragiSumie:r Temperature('6ttiF, 74 .,j89,1111---,r95 .10.0 110 4 77 00 83 - B 50 70 - Data Source:Rhodium Group RISKY BUSINESS ' d States 29 116k- Cr- .,, ..-...,0,,, ,. , , ,.. i,.. ,,,, . ...*,, 4,,,,-...:,..,.....„, . tili.;,r. - . 4:, t','''T ,, 4'''7- .' ''• '' r• :- .,,''' -_ • v. , ' 'ii,'„4.'..., 4:41.,MaStritr-' ..,'''''';-V4 - •• • ":r.,i *T.;,:•:,,• .A,''''' - ILI? • , ' air , ._ . . ..,:`'.;• • L:'„,:,-;',,,...-,L.- . , -- vilo U:0 ., -. ,•,, ,r ,i)i,,,t,,,A ,ile'' 1160N,.1264t ...., , ' '."'T`I''''''''''' - ':.* ■fi". 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'C`,;',_, ,-,--- - .1 14 •' • _ - .. c 41-‘ '-iks-:..,,,,-4 M.&k.o••,- $ 44 e' , 04 S ' r ' .1.`> ' l'a 4(4,' 1 ,.,' ;::::4 \et ,„,,,,, \,..r.----- ..,„At ) ••-.• -- ,419, - , 40 , L,,,,,,.. • , . szn a , ' I ,40 ,, 4 4 $k PI 'A+ . i-71,11, IIIK ' ' 11111 U 45 13 blUI) Data Source Rhodium Grec.) , .3 5 RISKY BU SI N caa 1 The Economic Risks ot Climate Change in the United States 1 ,• {- r- if d \ �- r S''Wt-H - 253 s `' tr � �tY � i Ly�,l �.,�-� �. �� n :;.:*•4,-'`'," f"� e ;>� xT:':.:::....!•:...`.:::..•::.:.•.,..•.....9 � �� y.s��� � .sy .3.. lq4 1',.o- tz#P s "fr •<a r r g,e.+*'�'s _ ..a X. �a' 4, . 5f 'Y ., °°4`t.t g,�,:° c ',.. c:,.p4 $q,';,h: d 19, x - a tai .a.4, a ,t, t f.,... r Ae1K. 1;4 a P,'r- ;,.- t s 9fis , ;.'2,idp;t.; 1.i{L ,.l�:f f}a�*' ° --.. a ,i; a � . k 'Ir � ,a.7�dr .ari, i x .Fa�3d� -t,�S,f 4 �';°Fla �j� �s�il�l.ss� >` t+€sr :�t^� t t�', p.�"a'i'� Sl ,. ,J1t -aa".i,., { a'�.r�ar„�-�i '�,irF,.F;. �: �,� "x'7 � • a} �aa,,: te S I Ik � d �'n ;t3s r. ..'�.' �P 1 aN�} +:f 3. d _z"a ,-,o-f;.-rr t x t:: °` a:t- ::g R Y s$' �'� '7, V a w�ar ate*..» - 3 ••PI �.,�a " �- aa � a.�,,y z. _s����'�`+�iR°g�.ra �n t ��` r " 1� �' � � x .m :F: # ae., .?<,o: aa ,,..:.'3. ;E< ,� waa ':a. ���i R4 ,>mp r '�°� 'er.�"s "' ffi v� days—potentially more than 2 additional months per ..to date,the U.S.has never experienced heat-plus-humid- . year of extreme heat—by the end of the century.On the ity at this scale.The closest this country has come was i. i 90 i Appleton,Wisconsin, t - 92., other hand,the region will also experience fewer winter in .. :.> n i,p�;ieton,lh i�,aan.,irl,when the H,;Si fait ,z`f. days with temperatures below freezing. (At the time,the outside temperature was 101'F and the wv point was 90'f.) The only place it the world that has But the real story in this region is the combined impact v(' shed the uiibeara ie I•I :5i of 99"F was Dhahran, of heat and humidity,which we measure using the ) Saudi Arabia, in Odu:t(outside te mpe rature of 1 J8''F,dew Humid Heat Stroke Index,or HHS1.'the human body's point or 951H.Our research sl ions that it we continue on capacity to cool down in the hottest weather depends our current path,the average Midwesterner could see on our ability to sweat,and to have that sweat evaporate art HI-i91 at the dangerous level of`O°f=two days every on our skin,Sweat keeps the skin temperature below year by late century,and that by the middle of the next :' � ,which is required for our core temperature to century,she or he can expect to experience 20 full days stay around 98,6°F.But if the outside temperature is a in a typical year of H ca FISl over F during g winch!r.will be combination of very hot and very humid......-if it readier,a . u x_t homily iy is posoule to be(tot cro.rs. HH91 of about 95°F—our sweat cannot evaporate,acrid our core body temperature can rise until we tt.;ally collapse from heat stroke.ke. ven at an t tt 1_i body temperatures s can get close to 104"?,which Is the body's absolute lirnit. RISKY BUSINESS The Economic Risks of Climate Change in the United States 31 4‘,/2.. (i /O (. •R b ' _ a rf .A rg"ff ttjj r'� q�- ®4 ,1 - � ?' ..w. . T f. 4„,:•,; �✓LV f-a�'`2 ) p' 1,4 ' YV„,, `" � 4 The Great Plains region stretches from The southern and coastal parts of this region will also the far north ,rpu tanat to the fat` South experience the sea level rise impacts on coastal corn- ,,"C, a munities that we've already discussed.In Texas,where differently in the s 3"thr r " and southern about one.third of the state's GDP is generated in coastal parts of this ret ' co'intie_,sea levels at.Galveston,for instance,will likely rise by 1.5 to 2 feet by mid-century and 3.2 to 4.9 feet by the Plains chance In the southern states .f t _Great f lairds r,f,lor;(Texas, the end of the century,with a 1-irr-100 c rar�ce o f more Oklahoma,and Kansas:. our research shows an increase than a 7.6-foot rise. .e. in extremely hot days. he average resident of these states experienced 35 days per year over 950:: in the Though the north and south sub-regions of the Great t i 4 _f Plains have starkly different climates,all the states s in this past 30 years This number will likely increase y 26 56 region rely two ir.apoi mnt climate-sensitive Ind as r ies: additional _> reineiy CA/rnii tur4 ond <r,>riculture and energy. 108 d1 w, y ur t-y - f'I,. the c4 t tul of between three an, Iola= months of additior ui extreme A.Itofth ,, 0%of tyre region is devoted to cropland, hot days per year- pastures,and range land,which produce.$92 billion in agricultural products each year.The story for the region's At the same time,the northern parts of the region will likely see a significant decrease in extremely cold days: agricultural sector is mixed: The more southern states from the average of 1'. 9 days per year of below-freezing may see:eclining crop yields as temperatures continue weather over the past 30 years,to between 117 and 143 to rise,while the northern states may actually see yield freezing days at mid-century,ntury,arrd between 79 and 122 gains,though this will depend on a number of factors, including water availability.(See the Southwest section freezing days by the end of the century. for a more detailed discussion of this factor.) 12 R I SKY BUSINESS The Economic Risks of Climate Change in the United States eit -_,, 1, .i'v.i.i.'„it.--.. . . ',.,-- ''',7--.6,_.t..'174,-:45 . .1...c.el..''..,-- -, ..-=,: ,.,::.! ' _ N''''tl: i '14 ‘ . ...6,- ' lint •''',11'-.5.- '' i' 1 , ,:-.-.. ‘...- ', ''':. ' i* FI /i . • ,, ...- , , , ,.,,,,,„,,,,',''',3,`', 1,!:i?,1•:,:i,$457:S'''; 7.;"''.'11 ;',.,';'i'''''';','11:1°''''.,;'''%>€1.",,,.;;,";i4i'7.0,Clz,,,r,,I .,•,1 ,,-- .4,,,itHii,.iii#4'''';'''#"1.:'*1, 140,—‘1,,t,V,,ig;,.ca,4,-0,,,,.-,,,,,-;',A ‘• ' , ,,,"?0,:i',13,i':„ , ,), ,;;;'. '4•• ,,,..;,.',,z;•;,':',#,„- ..., . .... ..z., .. , •,,. " ..,,,,•• — •,' Agriculture, ''' . lit ......:x. ,'"'• .,',Iir;'.'''' ,g'L't ....,,,,,:,., ,,,,, _-e ciec,,, ^ , I I 1;r5i iti;,erlies,r1 tk2:44tfr.;,1,' „,, ,,,"2 ri-'4'''' " ,„, EnergY:117e'`'''r ,ori i;,.,,,,/,,,-,i;ti)(• 4......pi`:,t4i,P,'>,:t1t;'.: ,,„ ,„Agp.J;, C ei„..irlz trY=('''-s'it''Pl.vial,ei,ciriC;IY ..-",''-;.-" Vk011, ,, ,.,',--4 -,,, / ....yk,, '1 ig by Sib)f' 0 4'' ' e,;f f,'3' ,,,,, e..,,, ,==.•: .:'1 '''t' ■:';''". ,«- ,:--1---:,;1',,, ....., .,;.,:z.,,,,,,.1- i (i', ''''i fiKeY'r'''''' ‘k;ahoin,1 L,',,'''''ci' ,,,,, , S; i ' ' : -,, 1 't''to 2‘ lea'S so L' ',,,ci,ri,,,,,,k,,''',' L, , , • ..- . :::,,,, , ,,' f•°0' ore,, ' '- , , ' .,,F.,/,,,, ''°LeveiRis'). 17„souilletrl(11(i ,s„,in/S e level ri,, , - 1%e"el'ce 5 a region',v',, \ i.„„Iirr,,orrit,:i),tre.,. 11)7poct'°n c ”' will„i(,)y rise i,le,(7}, ,,, _700 • -,, '-91ee'bi/ Summer Temperature('!,.,),,, 111• Average um er -.., ''''2'S',',:,•11111195 100 110 3/,„ 89 92 n 83 86 74 77 -- 50 70 Data Source:Rhodium Group RISKY BUSINESS Th.E.°^°'1`R''k'of Clinsate Chonge in the United Stoles 33 J /i � /04- (4--' ti;. ��5 � t �.. ri- n l" '# i �'..,zYf ,9 iv "yet K ., $ 4 s" �g ., r +�* � M1 � d `$ � i'.b, .. t. . .. �.. 1. � t...E,f... .��A R• t�a� b �rY .`YFd`i�$3��: �n�,lx '„R�. �3 �� .`s:. �� �+ �i �^� 53�� t� g a rnaior energy producer power sector.As soon as 5 to 25 years from now,our At.klae?same time, the region is a energy for the nation, making climate impacts on the energy research shows a 0.7%,to 2.2°x;,likely increase in nation. sector particularly lrrapr,r Cant for this area. Texas and wide electricity consumption. The country will likely see Wyoming alone pr ode!c:halt It of ti.S.energy(primarily a roughly corresponding decline in demand for heating, from crude oil and n d , i gas in Texas and coal in as ternperati_ires warm up in the northern states, but lr yoi:ling),and Nora r.aknta las recently become a the switch from natural gas and fuel oioil-driven heating Y rrlajOr all a 1 p. ., d it a s. a..li i:'S aerna n to eaucu iC ty powered cooling demand has in W n €3i ..' :3i. the nation ,'jr i ",pl r r she U.S. energy system. overall eiectl i.:v ne a'>. iie iapy si.increases in electricity consumption occur in the If we stay on our curreni path,our research stows a Great Plains region,with likely electricity demand growth significant increase in ciernarid for air conditioning over in Texas and Oklahoma of up to 5%and 5%respectively the course of the century which,when combined with over the next.' to 25 years.By mid-century,climate-driven other heat-related impacts such as reductions in power changes in air conditioning will likely result in a 3.4%to generation and in transmission efficiency and reliability, 9.2%increase in electricity demand in Texas and a 3.1%to could place a considerable burden on the electricity 8.4%increase for the Great Plains region as a whole. t. l,!'"-A t' s ,�_g ' a P `" O¢ po } ,rig F s+ € a h -z1 .. £,La df, �. %.x 8% Electricity Demand 6% 5.9% Energy Cost 5,3% 5.4% 5,1% 4,3% 4% 3.5% -t 2.6 9% a • 2°/ s� �. , , PW � A q o % uA..,. -D.6% -2% -2i'is, • -40/a Northwest Northeast Southwest Midwest Southeast Great Plains Data Source:Rhodium Grasp 314 RISKY BUSINESS The Economic Risks of Climate Change In the United States a ,..d.,, . t t to a per, �, a , ii; f''''''''''''''''''':"''':11::: :f _ t. � . ��e s m� tt „ M l € L.,1:1 r.1t M' 111 M 7 ,, : g t tt t t - ,,-' ,-',' ':., .- - ''.1.,',,,,, 1.. ii ' 1.;:: .,-' : ,, ':',,- . t $,!--* 7,,,,,, ,,,,,,,', ,',,;; „,.,",,,„,.',,,-,,, . ' '''., ,;:t-. ', , ktikl'-(. \ '!: .", ,';,,, .t,`. -t .''''. "or .- i ry., rtt. : I ..,a, ..,,:,,_, ', ...,, - , ,-, , ,,,, ' ','''' -:„. ''''';,.',.:°:=,, ,!,„1.t-,i_l'',,,fi.4, .,..,,,,i,,- --,,,.-,*----,,,,--,littil=f: ',, , ,.: ',- -4:':ii.f.,,,,',,F,-,..,, ,,,: ,- -, ,,,.,-,:.:' u ��-y r..; � � p{'fir,-MM T�IE� B b $.`!.. ��i �.. . 1 0r' A , 1$1.- $b� hi , 5 4 1 • > Shipping cranes at the Port of Houston Most of this increase will occur during times of the day All of this could have a significant irnpact on t.! e econo- when electricity consumption is already high. Meeting my of the Great Plains. in addit or,, rriany of the region's higher peak demand will likely require the rcxistrur t:on c tr,I cr t energy orcxiuction ftr( litics frorn power plants of up to 95 OW of additional power generation cap,..itti to c,l i ,K,. , . t:foi rr. —al e r ,1;k h or,. cimate-hriv over the next 5 to 25 years,the rot ,l ecriliv,l .r of ;`n or PS r t- 3 .'. . :)r,r.tlal e rao E'S it1 200 average-size coal or natural gas power pi amr rs. h11r,'" .?1,_ v'v t: 1t 5. ri, , _ <:e ftlo ec1 ;hp Construct'r f>these new power-f,enerchorr lactlates veil, 1 t F,it r•,/,',111:.,‘->e C•e. t r city anti t•.,1‘,(‘ ,,,v resource: just as i i l e In iUCrl, raise residential and commercial energy OrICe4, t!'?e country's need for t`7E'rri is t;rCfV✓Irlt?. Our research concludes that climate-driven changes in heating and cooling will likely increase annual residential and commercial energy costs nationally by$408 million to$12 billion over the next 5 to 25 years and$8.5 billion to$30 billion by the middle of the century. RISKY BUSINESS 1 The Economic Risks of Climate Change in the United States ) .., (eli.7-, -b.,„1-5., lc)* C.L_ h P �r L L �m em s 8 r 1+qtr ti _ 3 `(� g le a , (�''' 3 .f r4 a g 9 id 14. '�. }pa isr u jk ''_ e� q fir.' z, y, wzi4rr. � �6 o P . 411° 14 � e ° T 7' _ ,; ,,o '" r , . a e a a.; ,ry . " -::=7„' ... : ,, . A'1 EfSa',». ,a� .. j5 „ The Pacific Northwest,;e is good example '1.6 to 3.0 feet between 7000 and 2100. looking out to of the general truth that similar climate the tail risks, though,there is a 1-in-100 chance of more impacts may be felt differently from one than 5.9 feet of sea level rise by 2100 in Seattle. region to another. The economy of the Northwest is dependent on its coastlines, but it is also heavily dependent on its forests. For example, by mid-cent:in ry this area will have Oregon and Washington are the number one and two fewer additional extremely me y hot days'than, say,the .zo softwood-producing states in the nation,respectively, Southeast—but the average Northwest resident will these two states plus Idaho produce more than$11 likely go from experiencing only 5 days of 0=5"1::or billion in primary wood product sales.' Our review of wormer tern„f."atll( Per year on average f: w di r"st Y1;in„research suggests the Northwest's forests will 80 years to an additional:i to 15 extremely tot clays by experience significant potential impacts from climate mid-century, and to J r ,?lditional 18 to 42 extremely change,in particular frorn wildfire--due to both in hot days by the end of the century.This represents creased drought and to wood damage from pests surviv- an increase of 3 to 8 times the number of hot days for ink;warmer;•winters.One study we reviewed found that if the region per year, which is a significant change from ten-Terabit es rise,3.2"E by mid-century,this could lead to historic nouns. Inc :e n the annual area burned in the western U. _ _ ct ( found t et the forests of the Pacific his region e extent e... � _ f Northwest and ko;ky t✓.OUntains will likely experience the tea level ris£_here rc is rtioi e:varied than the east coast. Because the. area is relatively claw to the Alaskan greatest inc.eases cn manual burn area 178%and 175x;%, the Earth's gravitational field may lead to respectively). glaciers, f, Y the ice melt:in Alaska actually lowering sea levels off Washington arid Oregon.At the same time,West Antarctic melt may lead to higher sea level rise in the Northwest over the long terra.This latter effect is captured in our analysis of the"tail risk"of sea level rise in the Northwest. Over all, orr research shows that it U^.,,, - stay an our ,rrrerr', Pa'' level at Seattle vvill lilddy rise by 0.6 to 1.0 foot f airs£oft 2000 and 2050 and by 6 RISKY BUSINESS The Economic Risks of Climate Change in the United States ' : : ,--';'-i,1!1--',„.-- . , , ; .:;''''',,,, • -,,• ,,r,,,,' :.:'. - '-•`: '' - ' ':,'''t.","`:','"" --, .,:;.-:-,.. - - -2,; , '''',':',-!".::.' ,'';.,-..;.;:',.::,:.:: .:::-:::-,-,,,--,,',,,,,,l.:-,,,,,-,,,F;-„it4.4,,,,.. , ;'-- -:'',.ii:-..:791 i ' - ':'ili.' :•' :t'-3':',-,':'-- ;'-;;;,;,,',';;41"-; -;;,i',0';:;;;I,Z;,I;I:',-,;;;;I:iIi;IIi''''"-;.''-',;ki,'I,',',;Ig;; ; - - , ,,,,,t;;,, ,.I.I ''''-, ';'":;'-;1,11t: , - , I ; ' —L.-.:_—..--,#''‘' ' '':' :I [-I,44,;;',''';"' ;-; ''-';'-l`n,i 'i I'I,','$5,I;,;",,;':',;,.;,44‘;';';;II4'.;"-,I'0,ii?<:1,;;;;..•it,:r4;;;':;;,::; t-;„,,,,;7'';,,,<'•,;'';,'-'1t,;41.',;;;,'',,vi. .,,-,-.1',. ' I ,":4:'. 1,-,z--.,-,:‘,,:,,-----;,i.p.-'11,,,-..,,,',:,-1:x,:'-I.:-'., -., ,,,,...-,4! ,,,,tiiiit,,.,- „.,--.:,,,-.=--,--- i.,. ; :,..5,71.-:,, , 4-Aiii, : ,IL .i• kei xo,„,- ,:: .*‘i,r;'-,.---- z!.-.- ' ' , 1,,,;.'‘: e '...4. 1!!&,..a"44.-.4-4,7, '''4',,'..i'',-.; -,,-f!'44!,''' ''''-' °°.I, ,,ti ' it, f ..,.. -4.,, l',-:::;.6.,.. t'.,'' '` • " ' p, Sea Level Risen'f;..,',,t,?, L' ,,,,,n/4)()I.r.,,y sic ' ,i'Jr S,-.0t7le aid/ ,e'',..'I.'.:.'.1:Y O.t.,,..,,. , ,, , act 10 the(ui ,-,5d.,..,enough, , ,,i.,..,aid of the fE.,7noi,, r„.,/rise it Seal by. ,, m,(1(,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,....,tiiet,e,,..s;,,,,,, r,„:1 i,,,e,e0:4.t i)y7::;,cl e.(i..c:...,/,(.,J....:poKt:,ni, 4.- ..,...i.i..i. 4-.,..,„ i .,loc ---,*,,,.,; , ft''ev,:r,..,,,„,:‘,,,,,,1<,,...-•.3,.,, .1.;-:<:.--.;'.,' ,-',,„ , .''.: --,.;,,o,,,,,t::,-:;,.:.,-.;,-'‘,.-..:.,:, '., ',:'.'-''-,;.'''',44 , - ,,,,4i.:.4,.,'• ': ';;,,,,,;',41,A.Itt,,,',.' '.: 4','- ,,,,,T..7;„','''"o,,':,,'";',..': '' '1',1';.74-.;'P;O:2".". V' '' '. , %*'!'i''''''.,k''',&,7■""' ..,7'4''''''. 7‘'''''''''"",`"..,• . .,."7....0, e'`.''gl ',g;....X,';',,,,...6£,;*"-r,:;''''''..',",,,,-:..... "1 a ,,, , , ..;;;,,. Heat•'`'t _.„,,0,71,,5 day,0/v.: , r,,,'•:. a.,10.11,,,,- ,'<pi,'r();'i:-.,rr,expc,ie , ,c,v,,,,,,,,,i.!e ,,if/ .:.,;: "?....,,,,--, c)/woiriie,.- ,,,Ex,t,....,17,,iy. ilo,or:triil',:e1./As)cti.:ii,.1.,....:(,),:y:,,C;i:i'S',:fotrIlct:r.;6ic 1.c.tilii■joi■lal 1810-., Average Summer Temperature(`F.„.),,,,,,, • 50 70 74 77 80 83 9!11108 110 RI M l'il 86 89 92 Data Source:Rhodium Group United States 37 RISKY BUSINESS - l 5 /oI - C '` r 4 f a : -° a y J " �.• <..• x :•,,,,. «.ma.„,.s 1, ` ”` 1 t :,..2,:!e''' V .-• t e . � . � d a - 'vim- ,c _ • Qc . ' ° mot :,, 'SI The Southwest region includes the tra- ditional of t eAfe.,',. states—Arizona, Co1, ()redo, Neva a Mexico, no also C li ornia. As ... ,.za, iti an extremely diverse region that in some ways serves 4 , as microcosm o all the climate impacts ,�. , e .W we've discussed so far, ?. This region is already warm and dry about 40%of this area is covered by dose': -'—and is likely to become more so in the corning decades.Over the past 30 years, Wiidlend Firefighter the average Southwest i o.sideut experienced 40 days per year of t.m:eratu .of 9'..:/i•: 01 more. it \A, 'con- bv I :} .f.)3.4 feet by the end of the century. But the real c n this region is i' the tails. The California,€.i ., , ., •, . i ., Southwest resident wili likely see 1 3 to 28 adtli.lon,:;l coastline is iricre exposed to sea level rise resulting from extremely hot days. By the end of the century,y, his Antarctic et than the global average,and there is a number will likely use t o an additional 33 to /0 days of 1. n-100 chance that sea levels could rise by more than extreme heat due to climate change.That translates to 6.3 feet by 2100 in Sari Diego. one to two additional months of days over 95"F each San Diego is of strategic importance to the U.S.military: year within the lifetime of babies being born right now The city is home to three Marine installations,including in this region—one of the fastest-crowing in the United Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton,three naval bases, States. and a Coast Guard station.Fortunately,the military is one Because it includes California,the Southwest is not bast of our country's leading institutions in terms of acknowl- one big des;';t, it is a .i en:_:entely coastal region. edging the potential impact of climate risk on its instal- , Eighty-seven percent of all Californians live in coastal lotions here and throughout the U.S.The Department counties,arid 80%i of thr'state's GDP is derived from of Defense's 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review called those counties.Along the coastline of Sari Diego,if we for a climate impact assessment at all DOD's permanent continue on our current path,sea level will likely rise installations,and several studies are already underway!' by 0.7 to 1.2 feet before the middle of the century,and ', RISKY BUSINESS 1 The Economic Risks of Climate Change in the United States at' 7'1)/4- WiV1--5 ,. . .. . . .. , . - . . . c',' -- ' mi.,'.''''•77,":"4,'°'".'I". '°* --A"-'''...' - -- * ' , , . . .v4 .* :''. ,'V''..,`1;''''r'''''''''',':',\4''''f,,,';.;°•5'ii f.°,:''','")"*',.;,-,,,;,,,;..1, •t ', ,!,l,'" , "„`„, , g..,;,,,,,, ,i,,,,,44,47,,,,*;,,.4,,,,,,-,,( ,,,‘1.E., '.., „,,,,;, ' 44c!'„,,,,-,,,,,,,,, --,' -- ,,, , ., c ,,.,:,,,t.,,,'-iy,-,4,;.4,-,t.*4,,t,,,,,,,,,L., ,„--,„„ A ,5,,,i Aftt?..;::10;",!.;,,,';,,,,f,...4,31,t,,, ,, , , VLil,1 ,,,,,,',, i$,,,.,;:.4.„,,,,,oe' ,',,,,,-„- ''"4 .''' ''' Heet,:,,l the ir„,:;,i.,,,,,t,.-:/„.,iit,,K:fti:Ii.:;POUF re xvp;,iea,b1,z)::ts.ilo,l'South Nert,-,:i i',c,riai 33 to 70 clays extreme czt,due t.tch,5.of ;I,TiC1::e rho age,or one to two,)t.111,:rt)ncl,months - , III -' ', ,,, ,,,,i, .':•,'<';'„„:, ,,---,‘ ,,,,,,„. ., .,4,;:r..„,,;',-,. ,,,,,_,', 'ijil ''1' '''S 'Ii , -'0'`A31,o;ge,e,' ''-,,..., 3-,i-t:i:‘,.'-'=:',Iiek,t' . ''; -;''',;,.',i'..,';',°•...1: ',. , .. ..,,....•..,.. .„.„,., , „,.„. Sea Level:Risez t8e,/,'Lorefbati(1,L.,,,,0,1),"];:otir:::;:,,,:lst,11,:t' . ,.,- '(,rived f,,)17-,thou'',-, ‘111111V''' ' — al ill 111110 6 89 92 95 100 , ,,,„v . ,,, Average Summer Temeopera8t3ure 8(*art!F),,l,,,,,,;, =limo 50 70 74 77 I 9 Data Source:Rhodium Group RISKY BUSINESS 1 The Economic Rioko of Climate Change in the United Staten (ell 3/LS /tog. a.- In part because of icr turna plate activiiv in Califo nD,sea As the Southwes climate heats up,the region is likeiy to |cv�iris�=iU:a,y act oss!ha ss•tc• Los Angeles(1S see less snow in the mcuncains,leading no feet by21O0\Santa iVionica(l.7zo3] feet 0yZ10O).and nerretses n spring runoff especially in California and the San Francisco(1.Oxo feet:hy218O)will likely see lower Southern :Rockies. Extreme heat may also lead»ohigher se than San Diego. evaporation of existing reservoirs. this translates into less available groundwater for crtical industries such as While exLrenie heat das ri the Midwest and Soitt) east a�ricu|cure.asvveUas for simp|e drinking and baffling. will likei.y be coupled to humidity,here iii the Even as temoeiaturesr se, increased energy demand Southwest the days co i; eiy be not and day,increasing from air conditioning will likely cad to no-eased wat.ei the potential nf wildfires and dry|n:?;uP water sourccs, demand.s\ncee|cctricirygeneradooisheavUymmcer-de- yVhi|cvved/dnn�uuanmy �he /mp»c�n' cxmaochan�e in ii. xmaten water availaniiitv is also likely to be one|rhe//ore':--try msmo�'s.�mhcan� impac,00rhisreo,ion'sagricultural • cant'dimaoenooinmc �nuuxwc�n /»nunu ��na'e |ndusu1es. tendmhenon-commodkycmps(uee ripe for fusherana|ysis. iota, h o . ,arc,) Intl therefore ore not included in ore c(uan(ita(ve analysis of the ngrculturai sector. 40 RISKY BUSINESS The Economic Risks of Climate Change in the United States —n/skcumnn/uzy men,"e, �enry�isneros° Y•...M , y - 1' nyy.� .. t ..'�""V'—'�'.+'•LY'frY=`r. '�.. • F. . r •g.L�+1iYi� — „ .�.y, �f''W" y ..w•K•i.:�.. y: ,.. •r • • Y?� • s • • • i :..,. r •w�ii . .p. - ... - ry «i< .?xtiNWCi!1..E.al...,si•;;. • • L."^x' r ', .. - _ - - .^.. e:aJ.ys:~,y `p•wYhae�•.. - w , - �—� --. mod° W rT `- :YOB :�.' _-'-�� k.tt,-,--st....-` . .... .�...--.��a.�.. - _ ^•�.k 11 .n .. RISKY B U S I N E S S I The Economic Risks of Climate Change in the United States 41 es C Alaska is ground zero- for U.S. clirliate impacts. The state relies heavily on three .. climate-sensitive commodities: ell and r' gas, minerals, and seafood, a More than 80%of the s ore`s GDP comes from oil and " ° a gas productio i and sf) IC er S S 11 e tei y demand(as diS(ll >.tj � f�f":e r oltfif?, rt..ftC-'YIES.1 . 'in rn the . t'a ri ,4_i,'`i.1 ="%J4r' ) 1 `;'� °' - largest contributors t ,, "Ai}sa c;c()l orr?y,d('p(r',(I no Alaskan fisheries rely heavily on healthy oceans 11e<iit ly or-f'an': �.t;i r �.:eco.</�t:?,•-•S Our_research Shows major climactic changes in Alaska counties.Sea level is variable around the state,due to the over this century. if we tontiriue on our current path, by proximity of the glaciers and to shifting tectonic plates. mid-century Alaska's average temperature will likely rise As in the Pacific Northwest,the state may actually see sea to between 3.9'1 to 8.0`'I-.wa=rmer than it has been over letie s o down over the course of this century Our re.. z; the past -orgy years. r; no orial the.er to' that sea level at t,neau will likely tall by 1.6 tures wli.like r<[t o by to 161 i. ho,.t1.r:'r C < 1..ir 2t' to I tI t{f t )elwet'r't 20(10 olio 2050 and by 2.4 to 3.5 feet Lrlrrtc. �c,at.:hey J'dlli ;.✓ t P l t r r.c ,..� _nit as 1),,tivii.itien 2000 and 21'00.On tire other hand,Anchorage 19„F.The bulk of this :Irmira{,,is likely to happen in the will likely experience between a 0.6 feet sea level fall and winter months,significantly decreasing die nurrroer of a 1.2 feet sea level rise by the end of the century,with extremely cold days that Alaska now expel-lences.Up a 1-in-100 chance of more than a 4.0 foot rise.Prudhoe until 2010.Alaska experienced about 188 days per year Bay is likely to experience 2.3 feet to 4.5 feet of sea level below freezing;our current oath will likely decrease these rise by 2100,with a 1-in-100 chance of more than a 6.6 freezing days by 14%to 25%by mid-century,and by 30% foot rise. to 50%by the end of this century. he state is heavily Cod l t 0 ar;J of AI tkcir: hie a i coastal RISKY BUSINESS The Economic Risks of Climate Change in the United States le./23 Ic14- 1 Is pig yip g� tar, y ' a �^' "� r a rm, Yx` 1"47..V.121 : r i fP r , rt i ...a.. SM..bw AS Alaska is at the center of Ornate i rvvaii .antic t reasonably ably be looked at as a stand alone impacts from melting ing ice, Hawaii is a fv:t::, region, Ca.;4veve! 'ibis Late imports the vast majority of center of impacts from sea level rise, 'Ink i . Tot?,. energy, s in.c i citipendent with t:he rest state is 100% coastal in both its population of the U.S.as wet as the rest of the world.the recent and GDP. tsunami in japan and typhoon in the Philippines have awakened many businesses to the impact of a changing climate on global supply chains,'and ultra-dependent Hawaii is expected to get significantly warmer:On our regions like Hawaii are by necessity very sensitive to current path,by mid-century average temperatures will these realities.Changing agricultural yields on the main- likely be between 1.6°F to 3.6°F warmer than tempera- land may have a significant effect on Hawaii in terms of tures over the past 40 years. By the end of the century, food cost and availability.Similarly, higher energy costs in temperatures will likely increase between 3.7 and 7.7°F. the continental are likely to dove the cost of moon: 1 here is also a small out riot insignificant chance that red O1err„>f even hit7,her`L I Ic T,:1 i state:, Hawaii's s average temperatures could rise as much„15; c rsv t d r divesity its energy gy r c rt li l es anti rely more 9.A+"F by the end of the century. on domestic renewable souref s, however, most of these Sea level rise in Hawaii is greater than the global average, installations are along the vulnerable coastlines. and the extreme dependence of this state on the coasts will only intensify this impact. If we continue on our current path,sea level rise at Honolulu is likely 0,8 inches mid-century, 2.1 to 3 8 feet by to 1.2.feet greater by ry,an-.i y the end of the century.Looking out at the 1 in 100 tali risk,sea level at Honolulu could rise by rnore than 6.9 feet by 2100. 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'"9.r: .r 4«.'. :Z:1 rs .a r i, :�A.. r I 0,,,,e,,,/,425v#,-;/,4_,',-,561(..4=‘,....4., Y f rs « , r :•sy� s"' Ss,x.Aj. ,y t F".. 7�F r . ;: .: + A. ;),y,e■t o o r. t". r„; .', h i? •a ,. , f ' 1. kI; :x:•-e x 'i r'�-,' y ?.r ,�7�.�41I•sr.4. � i-Y °t ::' . ........0 et. 0r Y:. $3:., C� v. -r *:!••±r G4 ...t",-`•.: y ff-. . , ,f x _ . - . .• "I think we have to begin by recognizing the reality and , };. t severity of this threat to our economies, both UnitedT : •A r ?r ., States and globally, and really to life on earth more . a,r :. broadly as we know it. We also have to recognize that , r*Rd this p roblem needs to be dealt with now We.cannot :;, wait because greenhouseYgases in the atmosphere, .9 : `Y .. ::. NF once they're there, remain there for centuries so that , :: . 0.4 i ' .,, every year is greater and more severe in terms of !,:.,, ,...,4i.: :: .,xXec greenhouse gas emissions cumulatively than had been the case the year before. 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[WI he Risk Co'r :tlee does believe, that if we conunue on our current cliniate path, We based on ch;s proiect's independeni research and the nation faces multiple risks acioss every region. si&n/[icancco�zhedimace risks itdcmunstrate�that it|s time for all American business leaders and investors to But risk asses mentisnmjustabo«cidentifyingAsksand get in the game and rise to the chollinge of addressing leavinc it at that.Our research also shows that it we act climate change.me fact is that just as tne nvestments and today t.o niove onto a different path,we can still avoid many economic choices we made over the past several decades of the worst impacts of climate change,tiarticukni.y those have increased our current vulnerability co climate.change. related to extreme heat.We are fully capobi.e of nidnaming so will the chuces we noise todW >o'rs'irnine what our climate risk,inst as we manage risk in many other areas cf nation looks like m15 years,a/miucentury,and by2|0O. OLS economy and national secuntv.... out only if we>oul to ^ change our busi�cs��nd public pn8cydecisinns,nday |nshon �e'`ave� cno/cem�e��'`^' ��accep'��schma�� nsks Luc,out above orwheinerym�ton another path, The Risky Business Project was not clesigi ied to dirtate a This is not a problem for another day.The invest- ^ single response to climate risk.We know that there will ments we make today— his week,this month,this be a diversity of responses to our analysis depending on year—will determine our economic future. the particular risk tolerance of individual business and RISKY BUSINESS . 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"�ess �t�•° ', - s,'"^o ;`Sy ,,.: ap €;, Q 3 - f et, io ��a i4nit� a xy d th 9te�ial i poSa '� ,. ,•.'t s."whi 1elt is th �ngIe." < 3t3. t IJ: M 47 RISKY BUSINESS The Economic Risks of Climate Change in the United States e[UV . 1�� /� �� F pa 11Z K ° F R N NA&NN N8j ��� ���pQ 4 VVkhthis pn�eccwe have at�mptedm provide a bsan|ang�gedesch�ng the/idoour naUunmay face • common language for how to think about ciimat.e risk— from chrnate change,we can use it as the springboard built upon a common language of risk that is already for a serious, nonpartisan discussion of the potential pa:nfeveryserinushus|nessandinvestmencdedsion actions we can take to reduce those risks, we make today. |fwe have n common,serious. non'pap 48 RISKY BUSINESS The Economic Risks of Climate Change in the United States ~ " ° („/,, ,/,_.6 1014_ C R.,/ Ht- ,„„,,,..„,:„,1,,....,,,..:,,,,:.: . .,o 3 3 P ?x Y y x a a 3 � ,= :st y : 4„t ' € ,.�` - r�` fir'.! $ ± .a .a , _ ' f ,^ i y fi l a^ s«. "�sr a4 .s° a'wi ,�r a y Y v `� .S . : ?a ' ., t CONCLUSION ;gin '� a i *: . t en Risk Committee member George Shultz was the Montreal Protocol on Substances that E)eplete tree fSt serving as President Reagan'.s Secretary of State n 197, ozor .Layer,an international l treasy still in effect i.o this he urged the President to take action on that decade's day. holly contested scientific issue:the n/one layer,.A.,Shultz 'sin ;:,3 l t(,!1 tale Risky f`risi"l°5s I OJP_ct 5 not to late said i i an IntErVieVV VVI�:"1�cientt�iG.;,"3i 1r.X'1,"`�citl 4� .,"l`r "7@(i !P tQ.°` lath!' ! ,,)?tr nt'r`'.nit rc<7 than go and confront trig people who were ooub�ing it l`+1r cr ,J ,0\i.,t.r r3 !t 'l t,c:1 l and have a big argument t faith them,t=gird`..e e;nrrn: j(I �h tL K c L 1' i�' t the r�otr riuul sks Loak,there e must be,in the back of your rl l;rtd,at least d little doubt.You:.sight be wrong,so let`> :! he together r posed Icy cI nr t hang , t ii ci Utih,flier is on an insurance policy."`''That insurance policy became time to take out are insurance p :ry oi'our own. 4 RISKY BUSINESS The Economic Risks of Climate Change in the United States 49 qZ,37L5 itA- 6C- ENON BIES Michaei R.Bloomberg,interview for me Risky Business '' U.S.Bureau of Economic Analysis,"News Release:Gross Project,Jun.I 7,2014,ova coo cc www,riskybilsil e ore. State Ii1roduct,"June 6,2006,available at hnp://www.bea. 4 gov/newst eleases/region a i/gd psta te/2006/gsp0606.htm. American Cancer Society,'Lifetime Risk of Developing or Dying from Cancer,"available at http://wm,v. cer.orgi '1 U.S. Economics and Statistics Administration,"The Gulf • cancericancerbasics/liferime-pro no bility-ordeveloping-or-dy- Coast:Economic Impact&Recovery One Year after the Mg-from-cancer(last accessed June 2014). Hurricanes"(Department of Commerce,2006).available at h nps://www.eso.docgov/sites/clefaut tifilesir ctp orsidocu- Congressional Budget Office,"The Productivity cl Slowdown:Causes and Policy Responses'(Washington: tnents/act2006,of, Congress of the United States, 1981),available at h(tip:// Joel Garreau,The Nine Nations of North America ivvww.cbo.,govisites/d(.>,1cfpf(4lir?s/ciatttiles/iipciocs/11.3xxi (Boston:liionghton Mifflin, 1981), dor11.304/198i" 06 slodidovyttriell Brill Clark Howard,"West Antarctica Glaciers Collapsing, Fran Sussman,Cathleen 5< 0; and Kate Gordon,"el.limate Adding 01 Sea Level Rise,"National Geographic Daily Ch;iinge:An unitinueo Manmge"()Alasningtone Centei News,may 12,2014,available at htip://n ews. ation a Igeo- 1.or American,l,rogress, 201:3),available at hnp://cdo. gra ph ro m/n e vis/2074/0.5/1,105 12-f hwtl ites-glacier-melt- 0 n con p rog r e ss.or,);Aiiknii CO"7 ten tittplo ads/201.?/10/ 11w-collo pse-west-an tart:tic-aka-warming ma te Linfu ded o ' '<'-RE PORT.pal U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,"Heat Island • Hank Paulson,video interview for the Risky Business Effect."available at:hap://www.epa.gov/heatisland(last Project,August 28„:110 :it,available at accessed June 2014);for a full list of the 62 metro areas ness.o(g. of the U.S.with more than 1 million people as of 2013, see Wendell Cox,"Special Report:20'13 Metro Area Michael P.. Bioorribere,video intei view for the Risky Popl ation Estimates,"April 2,2014,available at httpl/ Br Sine ss Proj Oct,A ugu st 28,2013,available at http://tv.a/1 1. u I W.netveography.com/rontent/00/1240..speciotre- rtsAybosmess.0ig. port-2013-merropoliton-area-population-estimatES. Howard Kunreuther,C.reoffrey Heal,Myles Allen,Otunar Dr.Alfred Sommer,interview for the Risky Business Edenhofer,Christopher Field,and Gary Yohe,"Risk Project, New York,May 14,2014. Management and Climate Change:"(2013),Published Articles&Papers,pane: 172,available at http://research. '' Ibid. (Tea te.usc ed u/po h ect_pa pers/172. U.S.Department of Agriculture,2007 Farm and Ranch 8 PricewaterhouseC000ers,"A Practical Guide to Risk irrigation Survey,Vol,3,(2010),available at http://www Assessment"(2008),available at htii,ty4/0/01.41 pwc,cor))/ ogcenstis.US dagov/Pu ions/2007/Onlin High litzh tS1 RirM WO Rom 0 trogoliOn SLiPley/fris08,pdf sus d p Of Enertwintoimnation EIA Form 923,available " tom Steyel,video intei view to, the iizisky Ousinest, at()Iit /iviiNW, We/CC, /City/dot cileio923. Pr oject, May Ii.20 id, 21 oregorl Forest Resources institute,"'Oregon Forest Facts 4 tiM( oWl hange Research Program,"Regions& and Figures"(Portland,OR:20131,available at http:// 1 opics,"available at hr.ip://www.gioboichange.goidexplorie ote)gon for ests.otelsites/clejdui Vides/pit b/Ica no ns/p cif/ (last accessed June 2U14), OR Forest Facts and Figures_2013.p cif RISKY BUSINESS The Economic Risks of Climate Change in the United States 5 left eit. ENDNOTES Oregon Forest Resource Institute,"The 2012 Forest 2-" Greg Page,"Commentary—Optimism about Agriculture's Report:An Economic Assessment of Oregon's Forest. Adaptive Capacity,"The Chicago Council on Global Affairs and Wood Products Manufacturing Sector"(Portland, Global Food for Thought Blog, May 23,2014,available OR:2012),available at http://th efarestre port.orgi at h trp://glob o Ifooriforthough t.ry,o epoci.co tin/global-food- downloocis/2012ForestReport.prit Washington State for h t/2014/05/comm en tory-opti m ism-a b out-ogricu 1- • Department of Natural Resources,"Washington Mill tyres-iarioprive-r:cip a city,1) Survey 2010"(Olympia,WA:2012),available at li:tr,oyfiti-wity. Fran Sussman,Cathleen Keliy:and Kate Gordon,"Climate rinr.wri.gov/Publicationsibbeeconrprttnilisu 2O ft ad Change:An Unfunded Mandatie." Inland Northwest Forest.Products Research Consortium, ."1 Freeman Klopott and Esme E.Deorez,"New York "idaho's Forest Products industry:Current Conditions State Sees C.:hi-nate Change as Risk to Bondholders," and 2011 Forecast"(Moscow,10:2011),available at hap:// Bloomberg,March 26,2013,available at hap:11:4,14.w www.idabolorests.orglimglpdpIDETi_2017c, ak.pal bloom berg.c o min ews/2013-03-26/;r'.'ayrrrk store cites-c/ D.V.Spracklen,H. Mickley,J.A.Logan,R.C.iludman, R. rn ute-ch a riga-1srirtubrnjuru vestors. Yevich,M.0.Flannigan,and A.L.Wester ling,'Impacts of Donna Shalaia, interview for the Risky Business Project, Climate Change from 2000 to 2050 on Wildfire Activity New York, May14,2014. and Carbonaceous Aerosol Concentrations in Inc Western United States,"Journal of Geophysical Research Barry B.Burr,"Ceres:SEC needs to better enforce 11 4(D20)(2009):020301,available at Ottp://onlinelibraty. climate change disclosure requirements,"Pensions corn/tio1/10.1029/20081D010966/0 bstr act. and Investments,February 7,2014,available at:littp:// www. e.com/article/20140207/ONL IN E/140209893/ • 23 U.S.Environmental Protection Agency,"Ecological ceres-sec-needs-to-betfer-enforce-ciimate-chonge-disclosure- Regions of North America,"available at:ftp://ttp.epa.gov/ requirements. weckecaregions/cec_naliVA_LEVEELpdf Justin Gillis,"Climate Efforts Falling Short,U.N.Panel "4 U.S.Department of Defense,"Quadrennial Defense Says,"The New York Times,April 13,2014,available Review Report"(2010),available at http://www.clef ense. at http://www.nytimes.cam/20141040 4/science/earth/ gov/qdriimages/QD _12Feb70_100ap un-climate-priner-warns-speeciler-action-is-needed-to-avert " i-ienry Cisneros,interview for the Risky Business Projec,t, Us aste New York,York, May 14.2014. David Bieilo,i:A Republican Secretary of State Urges -?" Anders levermann,"Clinlate economics:Make supply ,Action on Climate Change,'Scientific An-ler:cam July 24, chains chi-nate stnart,"Nature,February 5,2014,available 2013,available at httplAbINW.scie ntific cline ric an.corn/arti- h ttp://www.n a tu re,com/news/clim ate-econ omics-make- e/q uestioi7 S-On d-answers-wit h-r;eorge-sbultz-on climate supply<hains-climate-smart-1.14636'. change-orld-energy/. 2' Robert Rubin,interview for the Risky Business Project, New York, May 14,2014. 2" Olympia J.Snowe,"Challenging Climate Change,"Maine Policy Review,17(2)(2008):8-11,available at http.v/ aigitalcomm ons.library.u eclu fcgi/viewconter7t. cgRarticies11778icontext-inpr. RISKY BUSINESS The Economic Risks of Climate Change in the United States 51 Fr t r' MOB ` " r is 1 ,,:„..... ....r.,/,.... ...oil • I+!�el 1 +- • 7r... 'fib r liprigill. t.. 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Page 1 of 4 / ki, -C"ryl 1 V ) 2 31 15 ,,cult.Page ten Art0£1nt .orsrislet's Oatia How it Worts .r,,hy it's Needed Newsroom Newsstand Copyright Petro€ Creoi;,ilit1 rein An ePublishing marketplace for journalism, ideas and expertise. Patent Pending Search Sear,;N City -any state `;i nec ter i Stones i N vs clubs ' Sear- ,. Desks any city Lcgi Low-income H.O.M.E. buyers up$1 million on house gains,yet Username charity,county hit by Brock, HUD Find and subscribe to N evas s-iubc Submit •- View News Hub Journalist's Info subscription -° Gina Edwards .: i i} 5C 1 petit ztions, v . >_r ub i Account Type:Journalist ss video shows or The Beats `' View Profile&Work Irnr#c Isis--in the City Desk Naples-Marco Island,Florida Newsstand.'tract-.; Investigations History all your Paid Story 1 Credibility:100%Positive(13) subscriptions-in Local Government Paid Videos 1 Has credibility the"fCy State Government Newsstand"area Login to follow this story Is Balanced and of your Watchdog Business&Real Estate Login to forward story to a friend Objective city rasleboard. Shows Respect Science&Environment Share This Story On: Acts with Cops&Courts independence National Politics i. .6g,y Is a watchdog WATCHDOG Education Member since:10/16/2009 ESS PR Open Government View Journalist's Other Stories PRE S4 The Watchdog View Journalist's News Hubs City ePublishing Technology Wire:Get Email Alerts marketplace has Medicine&Healthcare some of the Embed Wire alert strictest ' Opinion&Commentary ......._._..__.............................................' credentialing Report Abuse requirements in Food&Health journalism.Look for the Watchdog People&Profiles Description City Press icon to find authentic Data&Indicators journalism produced under The Arts Low-income H.O.M.E. buyers up$1 standards to Religion Faith&Reli million on house gains,yet charity protect credibility 9 and journalistic Sports and county hit by Brock& HUD Naples integrity. over red tape . Humor&Satire Desk HUD is requesting county repay$427,472 City Desk federal grant Watchdog City In-depth Stories on People, SLOGGER Politics&Business Sloggers pledge By Gina Edwards to standards of This Story is Free': quality and to abide by Naples City Desk marketplace Get access to the Naples rules. In the business world,the results would be City Desk Archive fo only applauded:The low-income families who $4.99 a month. City Calendars purchased from the charity H.O.M.E. have :1:ine•2016 houses today worth almost$1 million SEE RELATED STORIES s M + r r s more than the monthly mortgages they from the archive: 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 owe. 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 County disputes HUD, 14 is 16 17 18 19 20 If the low-income buyers were to sell the Henning seeks to sue 21 22 23 24 25 26 27• houses today,they would be required to political rivals on 7 ze Zy 30 / "' pay back all the government subsidies year old H.O.M.E. Search they received from federal and state grant http://www.watchdogcity.com/newsstandstoryinfo/5 07-Lowincome-HOME-buyers-up-1-... 6/23/2015 Low-income H.O.M.E. buyers up $1 million on house gains, yet charity, county hit by Br... Page 2 of 4 ek !l>f r'1,S ``bf1 money—including a$427,472 federal snanc°se,c_i pass-through grant that Collier County >° bus`s,a,c°u.e in °4 v_G'pint°d: received from HUD. in you, Updated: HUD requires Teo` pcs b pz ing, c°siFed°e°- And if they were to sell today,the low- Collier County to pay income buyers would still be in the black back feds $427K to FREtO SEARCH by$400,000,based on a Naples City related to H.O.M.E. Desk analysis of Zillow value estimates for grant the houses. H.O.M.E.has already given Collier The government would get back all its County$427,472 worth of notes money. And the low-income buyers would make $400,000. Activists from 20 churches: Collier But elected Clerk of Courts Dwight Brock, Clerk's excess red lobbying HUD officials last year—about tape holding up fed the now seven-year-old grant—told money for homeless, federal housing officials that he was needy concerned the low-income buyers are victims. He said buyers were"potentially victimized"because the mortgages and St.Matthews House no longer notes exceeded the appraised values of seeking fed funds because of the houses when they were purchased. Clerk;$1 million fed money left not spent last year Officials from HUD's Miami office appear to be persuaded by Brock based on a letter to Collier County sent June 8,2015 H.O.M.E. lawyers ask that asks the county to pay back all federal law $427,472 the county spent on the enforcement to H.O.M.E.grant. In its recent letter, HUD investigate Brock, said"Our review of appraisals disclosed that mortgages exceeded appraised others for abuse of value." power Appraisers,though, submitting the reports Fed scrutiny needed so other charities aren't harmed by unfair wrote that values in the area were audits,HUD grants admin, depressed because of the amount of H.O.M.E.says foreclosures at the time. Brock: Federal Now house values are bouncing back, housing officials not satisfied that The notes are worth money—$427,472, 2008 H.O.M.E. grant or the total amount of the federal grant. was properly The notes were designed to do something accounted for government rarely does: Recoup investment. Repayment of the zero- interest notes is due in 30 years or whenever the house resells,whichever is Docs turned over in sooner. So, if the buyers flip the houses at Naples City Desk market value,they have to pay back the public records notes that secure the charitable and lawsuit show government benefit they received. deeper involvement by Brock, staff in The 11 blighted houses purchased and audit rehabbed by H.O.M.E. collectively are now worth almost$1.9 million based on More than 300 pages of key Zillow estimates reviewed by Naples City documents surface after Brock's Desk, or almost$1 million more than the office said all public records low-income buyers owe on their monthly turned over mortgages. http://www.watchdo gcity.com/newsstandstoryinfo/5 07-Lowincome-H OME-buy ers-up-1-... 6/23/2015 _Low-income H.O.M.E. buyers up $1 million on house gains, yet charity, county hit by Br... Page 3 of 4 CA- 0-3/15 Those estimates likely dont capture the Appraisals /L G added property value of the extensive reviewed by Brock's remodeling work H.O.M.E. did to fix up the own staff 2 years foreclosed and blighted houses.The ago document houses H.O.M.E. bought to fix up and construction Brock resell had code violations and damage and they received extensive remodels with says not proven new kitchens, roofs, baths,A/C units, Elected auditor Brock flooring,appliances and other upgrades. sits law enforcement on 2012 political H.O.M.E.,with permission from county challenger over staff, had planned to use proceeds to housing grant keep its home buying/rehab/reselling program for low-income buyers going. But Naples City Desk investigation: the foreclosure crisis erased need for Internal documents show Brock affordable housing and after H.O.M.E. allegations false,misleading shut down in 2010, it assigned the notes to Collier County so the county can collect. Brock told Naples City Desk last year that H.O.M.E.'s assignment of the $427,473 in notes to Collier County didn't count as a return of income to Collier County because Collier Commissioners hadn't voted to officially accept the notes. In his letter to HUD, Brock wrote that H.O.M.E.attempted to assign the notes to Collier County"with no evidence of acceptance." One of the H.O.M.E. houses was resold in 2013, according to official land records reviewed by Naples City Desk, but it's unclear whether the county collected on the$35,000 note. The$427,472 in notes are an asset and Brock is the county's official accountant and custodian of funds. An investigation by Naples City Desk in 2014."Good Deeds: Punished," ---_ found that Brock's staff urged county officials to not accept the notes from Click to View Detailed Analysis by H.O.M.E. in 2011 and pull a vote to accept the notes from Collier Naples City Desk Commissioners'agenda. Use Control at Top Right H.O.M.E.was founded by John Barlow,the retired CEO of Safeiite to Zoom In&Out Glass Corp.,the largest auto glass specialist in the country. Barlow personally financed the purchase of five houses for H.O.M.E. and he secured private donations including some granite countertops for the low-income buyers.Think Extreme Home Makeover. H.O.M.E. Board member Gina Downs ran in 2010 against Collier Commissioner Georgia Hiller,who , at that time was a Brock ally. ,<' Exasperated with the red tape and , what he considered a harassing r ' audit, Barlow ran for office against .°<' Brock in 2012. Barlow and Downs filed a " successful complaint with Florida's Commission on Ethics against ' Collier Commissioner Tom Henning that resulted in a$500 http://www.watchdogcity.com/newsstandstoryinfo/507-Lowincome-HOME-buyers-up-1-... 6/23/2015 Low-income H.O.M.E. buyers up $1 million on house gains, yet charity, county hit by Br... Page 4 of 4 fine for Henning in 2013. Brock re- H.O.M.E. bought this foreclosure house 0.3//5 opened an audit of H.O.M.E. a in Golden Gate for$65,000 with federal /°P month later. grant money, remodeled it, and then sold it to a low-income buyer for Now. Henning is asking his fellow $136,000 in April 2009.The buyer is Commissioners to vote on making monthly payments on an Tuesday to ask the county affordable$87K mortgage.Zillow says attorney to investigate suing the house is now worth$236,000. Barlow and other board members of H.O.M.E.,which had an all- volunteer board and no paid staff and is no longer operating. Barlow and his attorneys say actually H.O.M.E. board members are the victims of a political vendetta by Brock. H.O.M.E.attorneys sent a letter to HUD officials in Washington saying Barlow and H.O.M.E. board members have spent a great deal of money and time defending themselves against a false smear campaign by Brock. Brock claimed vindication in a press release he sent out following HUD's letter from its Miami Office requesting that the county return$472,472 saying he raised the issues now being raised by HUD. Reporting By: Gina Edwards Date:June 22, 2015 Contact Gina Edwards at ginavossedwards @gmail.com or by phone at 239-293-3640. ihsorihe Other Images •4 Paid Story You don't have permission to view,Please pay for this story to gain access. Paid Video Ask a question or post a comment about this story No comments have been posted yet. Please login in order to ask the seller a question. o yr:.;lit 2.ji Watchci?a City LLC.Ali rights rserve,, Home About ifs 1 FAQ Staff eios I Contact Us Designate DesignateO trademarks and ands arc the h:;>.t;of lfitir resp cti owners. <t7bi,famiarrii N.Ste:,, J:pies,sioricoi:stns Use of this Web sS e conssws cs acceplerx,e of the sites Uses Agreement and Privacy Policy. 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OBJECTIVE: To evaluate options available to the Board to facilitate payments to Board vendors and employees. CONSIDERATIONS: Beginning on Friday, June 18, 2015, at approximately 6PM, without notice to the Board or the' County Manager and in conflict with the 2010 Interlocal Agreement (7/27/2010, item F9) which created a process for',I dispute resolutions,the Clerk of Courts began systematically rejecting invoices with the following directive to staff: • For Travel Reimbursable: Please provide evidence that the BCC has specifically approved the expenditure to r: this employee. • For Goods and Services Purchases: Please provide the agenda item where the expenditure to this vendor or expenditure for these goods at this rate was specifically approved by the BCC. Thanks Invoices presented include employee travel reimbursement expenses,purchase orders for supplies and services which were lI approved by the Purchasing Director pursuant to the Board's purchasing ordinance and policy,a number of purchase orders I� issued pursuant to contracts approved by the Board of County Commissioners,and a number of credit transactions. The Clerk of Courts continued this practice over the weekend, and as of 11:30AM on Monday,June 22, 2015,has rejected following transactions: • Total Transactions I Dollars: 622 transactions / S 324,031.79; smallest transaction equals $0.16; largest!: transaction equals$17,995.00 o Travel Reimbursement Number/Dollar:25 transactions/$2,661.63(average transaction amount$106) o Purchasing Director Approved Number / Dollar: 564 transactions / $297,956.15 (average transaction amount$528) o Board Approved Number/Dollar:33 transactions/$23,413.48(average transaction amount$709) • Credit Transactions Number/ Dollar:23 transactions at($3,065.601[some,not all, credits were reversed and processed later Monday morning] The Procurement Services Division continued to run reports throughout Monday,with new invoices added to the numbers and dollars reflected above. GROWTH MANAGEMENT IMPACT: There is no Growth Management Impact associated with this Executive Summary. FISCAL IMPACT: Fiscal impact will be determined upon Board direction. LEGAL CONSIDERATIONS: RECOMMENDATION: Recommendation to provide guidance to the County Manager in response to the Clerk of Court's unilateral decision to withhold presentation of selected expenditures to the Board for determination ofa valid public purpose and payment authorization. Prepared by: Leo E.Ochs,Jr.,County Manager Attachments: • Purchasing Ordinance 2013-69 • Purchasing Policy 2009-30 • Interlocal Agreement S.- , ■Office of the County Manager Leo E. Ochs, Jr. 3299 Tamiami Trail East,Suite 202•Naples Florida 34112-5746•(239)252-8383•FAX:(239)252-4010 June 10, 2015 Mr. Roger Hernstadt, City Manager City of Marco Island 50 Bald Eagle Drive Marco Island, FL 34145 RE: Goodland Road Funding Dear Mr. Hernstadt: Consistent with our recent discussion, I will be advising our Board that I intend to move forward with the first-half payment of funding as outlined in our inter-local agreement. This action is with the understanding that your Council will be including sufficient dedicated funding in your FY 2016 budget for the design of the Goodland Road upgrade. Upon confirmation that the Council has approved a tentative budget for the design, I will complete the second-half payment. Both you and the City Engineer emphatically stated that you could easily have a design contract executed by the end of calendar 2015 and a completed design within 12 months. We look forward to participating in that effort. I will recommend to my Board that we establish a joint funding agreement so that we proportionately share in all of the costs associated with the effort, commensurate with our percentage of the project. We look forward to partnering in the long awaited and badly needed improvements to Goodland Road consistent with the intent of the inter-local agreement. Should you have any additional questions or concerns,please do not hesitate to contact me. Respectfully, Leo E. Ochs, Jr. County Manager Cc: Board of County Commissioners Nick Casalanguida, Deputy County Manager Jeff Klatzkow, County Attorney